Wunderdog
Ohio
Fresno St
UTEP
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* UTEP Under
10* Fresno St
6* Troy Over
Teddy Covers
UTEP
Ohio
MR EAST
5 UNITS UTEP +11.5
4 UNITS UTEP / BYU UNDER 50
4 UNITS N. ILLINOIS / FRESNO ST UNDER 60
5 UNITS UTAH +17
4 UNITS UTAH / BOISE ST UNDER 60.5
BIG AL
At 2 pm, our selection is on the UTEP Miners + the points over BYU, as UTEP falls into 58-29, 45-25 and 39-18 ATS Bowl Systems of mine. There's no doubt that Mike Price's Miners really want to be at this game, and are intent on coming away with a victory. Not only is UTEP trying to win its first Bowl game in 43 years, but this may very well be Price's last game in his long, and storied, 29-year coaching career. And his players will surely want to send him out on a winning note. Both teams come into this game off a loss: UTEP fell 31-28 at Tulsa, while BYU dropped a 17-16 decision to rival Utah. Both teams finished the season with a 6-6 record, and the Cougars have been installed as a double-digit favorite over UTEP. But one of the last things a football bettor should ever do is lay a large amount of points with a bad team in a bowl game. To wit: Since 1980, .555 (or worse) teams are 14.2% ATS as favorites of more than a touchdown! And dogs of +10 to +21 points are a super 64-37 ATS in post-season games. Take UTEP.
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies over Fresno St, as Northern Illinois falls into 40-12 and 14-0 ATS angles of mine. Fresno State comes into this game off back to back wins, including an upset over Illinois (as a 6.5-point home dog) in its last game. Off that impressive win, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Bulldogs, and especially since they're matched up against a Northern Illinois team that lost outright as 20-point favorites to Miami-OH in the Mid-American Conference Championship game (not to mention the fact that the Huskies' coach, Jerry Kill, bolted two days after that loss to Miami-OH to take the Minnesota job). But over the past 24 years, teams off upset wins, as 6-point or greater underdogs, are 0-14 ATS in the Bowls, provided they're NOT an underdog of 9+ points, and their opponent is off a SU/ATS loss by 28 or less points. Ironically, there may have been more turmoil this past week in Fresno than at Northern Illinois, as Fresno's coach, Pat Hill, suspended three players for violating team rules, including linebacker Kyle Knox (2nd on the team with 74 tackles), receiver Matt Lindsay (14 catches for 208 yds), and linebacker Daniel Salinas. Take Northern Illinois.
Dr. Bob
BYU (-11.5) 28 Texas El Paso 18 (at New Mexico Bowl)
I’ll lean slightly with UTEP at +11 or more and I’ll lean with the UNDER
Northern Ill (-1.0) 30 Fresno St. 24 (at Humanitarian Bowl)
I’ll lean with Northern Illinois in this game and I’ll also lean with the Under
Ohio 31 Troy (-2.0) 30 (at New Orleans Bowl)
I’ll lean with Ohio and I’d consider the Bobcats a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more. I’ll also lean slightly with the Over at 58 points or less.
Chris Jordan
Ohio State -17.5
North Carolina -2
Northern Illinois -1.5
Wayne Root
Millionaire: Troy
Millionaire: Fresno St
No Limit: UTEP
Anthony Redd
50 Dime Troy
15 Dime 1st Half Troy
15 Dime UTEP
15 Dime Fresno State
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
4* No. Illinois
3* Ohio U.
3* BYU/UTEP Under
LT Profits
3* Troy Trojans
Tony Diamond
3* Northern Illinois
1* BYU
Texas Sports Wire
3* Fresno State
DAVID MALINSKY
5* UTEP over BRIGHAM YOUNG
The fact that big underdogs have covered like clockwork in December bowl games through the years is not news in the marketplace. And we have taken the sleigh ride many times over the past couple of decades. We get to do it again here, as the particulars once again fit the pattern.
Why do these dogs work? First we must establish the marketplace, which brings more public action than usual into play. A matchup like this one, for instance, would draw precious little interest during the regular season. With more public money in play it means enough money to the chalk to balance any inclinations the oddsmakers would have to shade the underdogs. When a team is bad enough to be taking double figures in one of these games they are unpalatable to much of the marketplace. And given how overall power ratings dominate the current trading, these lines will rarely get too far from the relative strengths of the teams. So we begin by establishing that the past patterns of these underdogs does not have to influence future lines in terms of corrections.
Then we get to the heart of the matter. When a bad team gets a bowl reward, it really is a reward. That is absolutely the case for a U.T.E.P. team that plays in the post-season for the first time for the fifth-year SR's, and also does it at a venue that is close enough to El Paso to bring a fan base along. This is a genuine reward for a team that will come to play, and we will let QB Trevor Vittatoe take the lead - This is an exciting time for all 26 seniors. It finally paid off, all the work we did. We're going to take this as a business trip. There are things we have to do before the game, but once we get back to the hotel, it's business. We're determined to win. And the silver lining in the grey cloud of the U.T.E.P. season is that a month off also helps an injury riddled team to bring more to these proceedings than their numbers can show. From head man Mike Price - The whole team is healthier. "The biggest change in the last three weeks is getting healthy. Tanner Cullumber is back, Eloy Atkinson is back, Nathan McCage. We have three centers who can play the game. (Donald) Buckram is better, Kris Adams is better. The linebackers are all better and practicing. The safeties are better.
Contrast this with a Brigham Young team that is the epitome of the flat favorite, the kind of team that may care enough to win the game, but will not bring the spark to get a margin. Neither this venue, being at a conference site, nor the opponent, bring any special spark. The NCAA allows 15 practices for bowl games, but the Cougars only plan to have 11 of them, and not all will be productive anyway, an issue of this game being played during finals week at the University. Bronco Mendenhall has noted that there has not been a practice yet that had all hands on deck, especially with several players moving their finals up a few days to take them before leaving for Albuquerque There has been a noticeable difference, in trying to work around (final exams). The guys have to have their finals done by Tuesday, when they normally have all of week to do it.And through Monday, slightly more than 1,000 tickets had been sold to Cougar fans, who also show a lack of interest (the basketball team plays a high-profile game vs. U.C.L.A. the same day that is a bigger travel draw). Look for the underdog to play much harder here, and in this spread range that intensity is more than enough to get us in the money.
Matt Fargo
9* UTEP +12
Hats go off to BYU for even making a bowl game after its horrible start but it gained momentum at the right time. I’m certainly not totally sold on this team that comes in at 6-6 and is laying double-digits in a bowl game against a team with an identical record. After starting the season 2-5, BYU went on to win four of its last five games but those wins came against teams that finished the season a combined 9-40 and were the bottom four teams in the MWC, none of which made a bowl game. UTEP is coming into this game with just the opposite momentum as it closed the season with losses in five of its last six games. Normally this is a fade as teams on a downward spiral should be avoided but that is no doubt being taken into consideration in this line and we can actually benefit from it. “The hardest part is losing momentum, but since we had no momentum, finding momentum is what we plan to do,” UTEP head coach Mike Price said. And that is a very valid factor. This is the first bowl game for the Miners in five years so they will put forth an excellent effort. The fifth-year seniors, fourth-year seniors, fourth-year juniors have seen it all, have been close enough to taste it as they were on the cusp of making it to the postseason numerous time but have only walked away with the taste of what-might-have-been. The Miners were stung with close losses the last four years, and even had two such losses this season so they will be very hungry here. On the other side, the Cougars had gone to the Las Vegas Bowl the last five years and this is a definite downgrade from that. On top of that, with this being the first bowl game, preparations have not gone well in Provo. The Las Vegas Bowl arrangement worked out well with finals and getting in the full 15 allowed practices, or close to it. This year though none of the practices to date had featured the entire team, due to players missing them to take or prepare for tests, or because of some lingering injuries. “There has been a noticeable difference, in trying to work around final exams”, BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall said. “The guys have to have their finals done by Tuesday, when they normally have all of [the] week to do it.” This is a big advantage for the Miners. Also, UTEP quarterback Trevor Vittatoe has been bothered by an ankle injury that will require surgery at the end of the season but the extra time off has been a big benefit. His offense will keep the Miners in this one.
9* Fresno St. +1.5
The Northern Illinois situation is a tough one to deal with and I do not see this team coming to compete 100 percent which is a major factor when it comes to dealing with these bowl games. The Huskies went through a stretch of nine straight wins before putting up a dud in the MAC Championship, losing to Miami Ohio in the final seconds. They still made it to the postseason but that was a huge disappointment and you could see it on the players and coaches faces after the game. Speaking of coaches, this is the other area where the Huskies are hurting. Head coach Jerry Kill decided not to stick around and try to win a bowl game for the first time as he jetted off to take over the job in Minnesota. Assistant coach Tom Matukewicz will handle the head coaching responsibilities for this game before the team is handed over to Dave Doeren, the current defensive coordinator at Wisconsin, who will become the head coach after the Badgers compete in the Rose Bowl. The coaching changes will have a domino effect on the players as well as this is something they did not see coming. “It’s still a feeling I really can’t comprehend,” said junior quarterback Chandler Harnish, who will be playing for his third head coach next season. “Disappointment. Shock. But, we’re moving on. We still have a bowl game to focus on, but I have mixed emotions. For everyone, it was a big shock. ... It’s possible I’ll be playing for my fourth quarterback coach.” Fresno St. was not expected to do a whole this season but as usual, the Bulldogs put together a solid season. This is the fourth straight bowl appearance for Fresno St. and while this is not a home field edge for the Bulldogs, they have played on this field in the past and the hometown crowd will be backing a fellow conference team. This is actually the third time in the last seven years that Fresno St. has played in this bowl game and it has wins over Virginia and Georgia Tech in 2004 and 2007, respectively. Northern Illinois played a very soft schedule as is the case with most MAC teams but even the non-conference slate was below average and that is not going to benefit the Huskies here. The Huskies opponents winning percentage was .385 which is the second worst of all bowl teams. Fresno St. is certainly not a dominating force but it played a much tougher schedule and has the strengths in the areas that will pose huge problems for Northern Illinois.
9* Ohio / Troy Over 57
This is probably the least attractive primetime game of the bowl season as it resembles one of those Tuesday night games that were featured on ESPN toward the end of the regular season. However bad the matchup is, it could turn into a very entertaining game as the offenses will have big advantages against the opposing defenses. This is the highest total that has been put into place in an Ohio game this season but that means little as the matchups are going to dictate the points put up. The Trojans defense has been a liability all season and there is no reason to think it will shut down the Bobcats. The defense has had problems stopping the run and will have its hands full trying to slow a diverse and talented Ohio ground game. Troy allowed 419.2 ypg on the season including 171.7 ypg rushing and those are 93rd and 80th respectively in the country as well as sixth and fourth in the Sun Belt Conference. The MAC is not much better, if at all, than the SBC but the Trojans showed they have trouble stopping most teams. Bobcats’ offensive coordinator Tim Albin will test the Trojans' gap discipline and ability to get off blocks with his Pistol formations. The possible absence of quarterback Boo Jackson is not as big of an impact as originally thought because of the porous defense and he is still a possibility if paperwork gets ironed out. In the passing game, the size of Ohio receiver Terrence McCrae, who is 6’4”, will give Troy cornerbacks Jimmie Anderson who is 5’8”and KeJuan Phillips 5’9”, problems in one-on-one situations. Troy will bring a high-powered offense to the bowl matchup, as it was first in the league in pass efficiency at 137, scoring with 32.9 ppg, passing offense with 288.2 ypg and total offense with 441.1 ypg. Corey Robinson has been very inconsistent at times, he'll get the ball out quickly and spread it around. Troy wide receiver Jerrel Jernigan is one of the most dangerous open-field runners in the country and can impact a game in three ways notably quality starting field position with his contributions in the return game. The Bobcats defense was a decent unit this season, allowing just 316.6 ypg overall but that came against a lot of offensively challenged teams in the MAC. The total defense finished 28th in the regular season but it went against offenses averaging only 21.4 ppg and 324 ypg. Not counting Wofford, which is a FCS team and Ohio St., the Bobcats faced offenses ranked 101st, 89th, 111th, 81st, 83rd, 119th, 115th, 91st, 102nd and 78th in total offense. It is safe to say they have not faced many strong units.