The Magnificent 7
HUMANIITARIAN BOWL A DOUBLE DIME BEST BET WINNER
Northern Illinois -1.5
NEW MEXICO BOWL A DOUBLE DIME BEST BET WINNER
BYU -11.5
Jim Feist
20* Bowl Basher - UTEP +11.5
The New Mexico Bowl from University Stadium, Albuquerque. BYU (6-6) has a weak offense with a pair of young QBs, with junior QB Riley Nelson (2 TDs, 1 INT) and true freshman Jake Heaps (11 TDs, 8 INTs). The Cougars are one-dimensional on offense and they played a whole string of bad teams to make this bowl, beating Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV and New Mexico. They face a UTEP (6-6) team that got to a bowl despite a ton of injuries. The good news for the Texas El Paso Miners is that they have an experienced, talented offense and are finally healthy for Head Coach Mike Price. The Miners have great balance on offense, 149 yards rushing and 221 passing per contest. The ground game is solid with junior RB Joseph Banyard (612 yds) and RB Donald Buckram (325). Buckram is a terrific back but has been injured much of the year, but the long layoff is a huge plus. Senior QB Trevor Vittatoe (19 TDs, 10 picks, 2,511 yards) is very good, though he has been battling an injury to his ankle. They righted the ship at home in a big 28-14 win over SMU, as the defense was terrific and Vittatoe threw 3 TDs, no picks. The Miners and the Cougars have one common opponent this season: UTEP won at New Mexico, 38-20, on Oct. 2 and BYU knocked off the Lobos in Provo, 40-7, on Nov. 20. This game is far more evenly matched than oddsmakers think.
15* Monster Mash - Troy -2
The New Orleans Bowl from the Superdome, a closer game for Troy (Alabama). Ohio (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) prefers to run the football behind erratic QB Boo Jackson (15 TDs, 16 INTs). But this passing game is 105th in the nation with only 158 yards per game behind the turnover prone Jackson. Ohio has been to two bowls the last four years, including last season, going 0-2 SU/ATS losing to Southern Miss (28-7) and Marshall (21-17). The Troy University Trojans football teams will make their third trip in five years to play in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl. Troy (7-5 SU/4-8 ATS) has a powerhouse offensive team under head coach Larry Blakeney, averaging 33 points, 153 yards rushing and 288 yards passing, ranked in the Top 12 in passing in the country. Redshirt freshman QB Corey Robinson (24 TD, 15 INTs) is running the show and he had 272 yards, 3 TDs and no picks in a wild 41-38 loss at Oklahoma State as a big dog as the offense had 371 yards. Troy has an excellent group of wideouts, led by senior WR first team All-Sun Belt Jerrel Jernigan (755 yards). The better, faster offense has the edge indoors on the artificial Superdome carpet, plus a closer fan base.
Triple Threat Sports
2* Pacific (+) over New Mexico State
Aggies might be the most banged up team in the country, and as such they will struggle here. Out are Wendell McKines, Hamidu Rahman, and Troy Gillenwater, easily the three best players on the team. Making matters worse, another senior - Gordo Castillo - will miss this one as well, meaning three stars and one key contributor are out here. This team was 3-6 last year without McKines and Gillenwater in the lineup together, and that was with the others healthy, which is not the case here. Pacific has a nice inside/out mix and one of the best in the Big West in Sam Williard, and should be able to get the win here.
Al DeMarco
5 Dime Baylor
5 Dime Orlando
5 Dime New York
No. 9 Baylor, although not playing on campus in Waco for the first time this season, still enjoys the homecourt advantage against Gonzaga as today's game is being played in Dallas.
This is a step-up game for the 7-0 Bears, who have won their games so far by an average of 24.8 points against a cupcake schedule littered with the likes of Bethune-Cookman and Prairie View A&M. Their toughest foe, and only victim from among the so-called six "power" conferlnces was Arizona State and the Sun Devils are just mediocre at best. However, the Bears are a talented group with size and guard LaceDarius Dunn, who has scored 20+ points in four straight games after returning from a season-opening four-game suspension.
Gonzaga carries a 5-5 record into the contest as a brutal non-conference schedule that includes losses to four nationally-ranked teams: San Diego State (76-79), Kansas State (64-81), Illinois (61-73) and Notre Dame (79-83). This is the Bulldogs' third road game in a four-game stretch over an 11-day period. They lost the previous two at Washington State (59-81) and in South Bend.
Baylor is rested; Wednesday's 83-39 rout of Bethune-Cookman was its first game in 13 days. The Bears lead the country in scoring defense (51.9 ppg) and are tied for third in rebounding differential, pulling down 13.3 more boards a game than their foes. They're also tied for fourth in field goal defense, limiting opponents to 35.5% shooting.
Great situational play on Orlando tonight as the Magic return home after a dismal 1-3 road trip which included losses at Portland, Utah and Denver. Worse yet, they allowed 97, 117 and 111 points in those games prompting Stan Van Gundy to dedicate nearly all of Thursday's 2 1/2-hour practice on defense, which the coach deemed a success.
Orlando had won six straight and 10 of 11 prior to its current 1-5 tailspin and with a brutal stretch of games at Atlanta and then home versus Dallas, San Antonio and a Christmas day clash with Boston, this is a must-win situation tonight.
The 76ers had been on runs of 7-2 SU and 12-1 ATS before last night's 93-81 loss to the visiting Lakers. Philly could not control LA's big men as Pau Gasol had 19 points and 13 rebounds while Lamar Odom poured in 28 points. The Lakers' size advanatage resulted in 28 trips to the line versus just 14 for Philly and tonight the Sixers, playing their fourth game in five nights, must contend with not only Dwight Howard but new starting power forward Brandon Bass (13.7 points, 7.3 rebounds last three games) and back-up center/forward Marcin Gortat, whose minutes have increased of late.
Orlando's backcourt woes have GM Otis Smith reportedly considering acquiring Gilbert Arenas, but for tonight the Magic have the edge at the point with Jameer Nelson against Jrue Holiday, who is coming off a 3-for-15 shooting performance versus the Lakers.
Time for the Knicks, following consecutive homes losses to the Celtics and Heat that ended their eight-game winning streak, to rebound with a road win against the Cavaliers, snapping an eight-game losing streak against Cleveland, a streak compiled when LeBron was averaging 33 ppg.
Speaking of James, he torched New York last night at the Garden with a triple-double (32 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists) as his new team, Miami, rolled 113-91. The contest marked the end of Amare Stoudemire's streak of nine straight games with 30+ points and came just two nights after the Knicks almost upset Boston at home.
Tonight the Knicks carry an eight-game road winning streak into Cleveland against the Cavaliers, who have lost 10 in a row by an averrge of 17.5 points. They've shot just 40.1% during the skid and are coming off a 108-99 loss at Indiana last night, their 14th overall in the past 16 games.
New York was held to 34 points in the second half by the Heat last night. Don't expect a repeat performance against the Cavs as the Knicks average 108.1 points on the season.
Cleveland couldn't handle the Pacers' Danny Granger last night (30 points, 12 rebounds); the Cavs can't contend with Stoudemire, Wilson Chandler (19.5 ppg since joining the starting lineup), Raymond Felton (18.3 ppg or the Knicks' depth tonight. And two of their top defenders, Joey Graham and Leon Powe, missed Friday's loss at Indiana and will most likely remain sidelined today.
Craig Davis
40 DimeTROY
15 Dime FLORIDA STATE
10 Dime OHIO STATE
TROY TROJANS
Saturday's rather boring slate of football bowl games concludes this evening with the best value on the board... the Troy Trojans. Before I look at any numbers or records or common opponents, I want to point you to one thing. When I doubt, side with the best QB on the field. If it's close, either leave the game alone or play small on the slightly better QB (unless you have other HUGE determining factors leading you in one direction). Tonight we have a clear cut winner, and that's Troy QB Corey Robinson, and he alone will carry this team to a victory greater than three points.
Troy has a very good but little-known QB... a talent that Ohio University's defense hasn't seen yet. Not only that, but his receivers are more-talented and bigger than Ohio's defensive backfield and this mismatch simply can't be overlooked. Sure, Ohio's defense has been good all season if you look at their overall numbers, especially against ground games, but when you get to these bowl games you have to look at the talent on the field and now so much what they've done in the past vs. teams in their own conference. The MAC doesn't have a QB as talented as Robinson, in my opinion, and I just don't believe the Bobcats corners or safeties are athletic enough to keep up with Troy's wideouts. Advantage Troy. Big!!
This matchup definitely gives us a contrast in styles... as Troy wants to get up and down the field, eventually wearing out a defense and outscoring them in a high-scoring game. Ohio is a little more traditional, playing rather solid defense and pounding the ball on the ground. But let's not forget that the Trojans can run the ball too. Just because their passing game gets all the accolades doesn't mean they can't run the ball when they need to. For the season, Troy averaged over 150 rushing yards per game, with most of the damage coming from Shaun Southward. Don't sleep on Troy's ability to run the ball just because Corey Robinson gets all the praise... trust me, Troy will run the ball tonight too.
Troy enters tonight's game having beaten Florida International and Western Kentucky in their final two games, covering both and also playing their best defense in those two games. Ohio, on the other hand, suffered a humiliating 28-6 to lowly Kent State as 5-point favorites. They looked as bad as I remember them. There was a clear disconnect between QB Boo Jackson and the rest of his team, and that's one of the things I noticed and one of the reasons I liked Troy in this game when it was first released. Jackson finished the season with more INTs than TDs, but he's the only chance they have to win. If he doesn't play, Ohio will get destroyed tonight. I handicapped this game as if he were playing, which is why it's only a 40-dimer. If he doesn't play they are truly doomed because I just don't see how they'll score many points.
The Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 upon allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU win and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win. Although they aren't playing a true home game, they are playing a lot closer to home than Ohio and both of these teams play a lot better at home. I'll give the edge here to Troy and subsequently the win and cover.
FLORIDA STATE
Prove it to me first. I need to see if Loyola Marymount is really as good as their record or just a product of their rather easy schedule. The toughest team the Lions have played thus far is probably Cal-Santa Barbara and, of course, they lost by 10. In fact, all of their "borderline" tough games resulted in losses and I still don't believe in them. They are definitely stepping up in competition tonight and I just don't think they can keep up with Florida State's length and athleticism.
Chris Singleton will be an absolute matchup nightmare for every player on the floor in a Lions jersey and I wouldn't be surprised if he's on his way to a double-double by halftime. Loyola has no one on its roster that can stop him one-on-one, and when they start to double down he is more than capable of finding the open shooter for the perimeter jumper. And considering the Seminoles shoot better than 40% from three-point land on the road, that's going to spell trouble for the Lions at home. FSU not only scores more, they play very good team defense with their athletic front court.
FSU didn't beat Ohio State, but they sent a message by playing a very physical game and allowing the #2 team in the country to score just 58 points. If OSU can only score 58, how can Loyola be expected to top that? The 'Noles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a road favorite of between 1 and 7 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a road favorite in general. The buck stops here as FSU is just too strong for Loyola.
OHIO STATE
How many times have I given you the Buckeyes already this year and won? How about +3 at Florida (93-75 win)? What about the following game... as 29-point favorites over UNC AT&T (a 40-point win)? Or against Florida State as 4 1/2-point favorites (a 14-point win)? I was on all three and so were my clients. I know this team folks... I know them very well. Yes, I know I'm asking you to lay a lot of points here in a strange spot, but the Buckeyes have stepped up in both of their "big" games so far this year and won both games by double digits. And unless I've completely underestimated the Gamecocks (which I don't think I have), they aren't in the same class as Florida or Florida State.
Yes, I know South Carolina is 7-1 on the season and its only loss came at Michigan State by nine points, but have you seen some of their wins??? USC-Upstate, Wofford, Radford, Elon, Deleware State... the list goes on. They haven't played anyone EXCEPT Michigan State, and in that game they lost. Isn't it ironic that MSU was giving 17 points in that game as well and although they won South Carolina easily covered, yet Vegas comes right back with that number against another Big Ten team? They are BEGGING for South Carolina money people, and I'm not going to be fooled.
Jared Sullinger, the freshman phenom, is averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds per game this season and I don't think we've seen anything close to his best yet. This team is balanced, high-powered on offense and very suffocating on defense. Not only are they completely outscoring everyone, they're outrebounding them and not turning the ball over. Unless they completely collapse today, I see them winning this thing easily by 20 or more.
Derek Mancini
50 Dime Northern Illinois
Love the Huskies here for a couple reasons, but none bigger than the public's oveareaction to the coaching change. Everywhere I look someone is ranting and raving about Jerry Kill taking the job at Minnesota, and how LB coach Tom Matukewicz won't be able to gameplan for Fresno State. That's complete and utter bullshit. This is a veteran Northern Illinois team, and coach Matukewicz has smartly been playing the powerful "us against the world" card, telling his players how everyone is doubting them based on the coaching change. It will work wonders tonight.
From a match up standpoint, the Bulldogs may have played the tougher schedule, but I'm not buying that makes them the better team. The Huskies rolled through the MAC like a hot knife through butter, only to falter in the MAC Title game. They had a letdown, big 'effin deal! They dropped 71 points on Eastern Michigan, and then got a little too high in the saddle and laid an egg against Miami (OH). But are you going to base your assescment of NIU on one game or an entire season?! Looking at their entire resume, the Huskies are the superior team here - period.
Let me make something very clear: I'm well aware of the Bulldogs penchant for sacking the passer (37 sacks). HOWEVER, don't confuse the ability to notch sacks with the ability to play defense, with Fresno allowing almost 30 ppg on the season. Also, if you dig a little deeper, you'll see that the Northern Illinois o-line is damn good, and has surrendered only 13 sacks on the season. So if the Bulldogs can't get to Harnish, its safe to say their swiss cheese can be taken advantage of.
Along with an excellent o-line (which helped the Huskies average 6.4 ypc), NIU has the two best offensive players on the field in Harnish and Spann. Harnish is not only more acdurate than his couterpart Colburn (64% to 61%), but he's also way more adepth with his feet (764 yards, 6 ypc, 5 TDs). While Spann is comparable to Fresno's Robbie Rouse, Spann's 20 TDs far supercede Rouse, and he runs behind the better o-line. Long story short, bettors are overreacting to the coaching change, as this NIU team is superior in almost every facet of the game. They'll be motivated to show they're more than just Jerry Kill. Take Northern Illinois over Fresno State Saturday.
Joel Tyson
30 Dime Ohio State
10 Dime Fresno State
Nice early returns for the Gamecocks who are off to a 7-1 start. Their lone loss came against Michigan State of the Big 10, and the Cocks did manage to cover in that game, losing by 11 as the 17 point underdog.
Here we have a similar line against another Big 10 foe, but I will tell you flat out that Ohio State presents a different set of challenges for the very young visitors from Columbia.
Ohio State has the emerging freshman Jared Sullinger to keep the Gamecocks front line busy, and at 9-0 the Buckeyes sure look like the "real deal" to me.
Today I think they make a statement against South Carolina who will be playing their first road game of the month.
Lay it with the Buckeyes.
Northern Illinois loses the MAC Championship Game outright as an 18 point favorite, their coach Jerry Kill leaves with both of his coordinators for the University of Minnesota, and the Huskies are still a slight favorite in this bowl game?
OK, I will bite. Give me Fresno State in this one, as the Bulldogs may have 4 losses, but they have played the stronger competition, and 3 of the schools they lost to are playing in bowl games this holiday season.
Fresno State was blanked 51-0 on this field about a month ago, but that was against Boise State. They are not playing Boise State in this one, and they are quite familiar with the blue turf in Idaho, as Coach Pat Hill has already won his 2 previous tries in this bowl game the last 2 times the Bulldogs have traveled to Boise, Idaho.
Northern Illinois has been run over the last 2 years in their bowl games, and are 0-3 the last 4 years when appearing in a bowl, getting outscored 81-20.
10 dime bonus baby on Fresno State.
Karl Garrett
20 Dime Fresno State
20 Dimer Kansas State
20 Dimer Bulls
Let's start it with the earliest release, and that is the K-State Wildcats who take on Florida, but not in the O-Dome which will make a huge diflerence as far as having to deal with the home crowd rowdies that the O'Connell Center attracts.
The Gators are also a horrific 1-6 against the spread in lined games this year, and just have not seemed to have any real cohesion and I don't think they are ready for this "step up" in class game against Frank Martin's Widcats.
I like the early season "tests" the Wildcats have played already (Duke, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Gonzaga), and feel they are the more tested of the 2 sides on the court this afternoon.
In college football, it will be Fresno State all the way against Northern Illinois.
My main reason for this side selection is the fact Huskies coach Jerry Kill has left for the same post at Minnesota, but not only did he leave, but he also raided the cupboard, taking his offensive and defensive coordinators with him.
That puts the Huskies in a tough spot, and it also doesn't help that Northern Illinois was an 18 1/2-point favorite in the MAC Championship game, and they lost outright to Miami.
Fresno State has some big bodies on their OL, and I can see the Bulldogs wearing down the Huskies defense in this one.
I can also see the Fresno defense keeping the Northern Illinois offense out of the end zone since the Bulldogs have already had to deal with Hawaii, Nevada, and Boise State's high-powered attacks.
Fresno has played numerous times on the blue turf, and in fact they have won their 2 previous Humanitarian Bowl games while Northern Illinois is 0-3 straight up the last 4 years in their bowl games.
Take Fresno.
NBA, I don't care if Noah is now out until February, the Bulls will find a way to get it done once again.
Chicago was off Friday night, while the Clippers road trek continued in Detroit last night.
The Bulls have won 7 straight, and have covered 4 straight. They are also 10-2 straight up at home, and 7-4-1 against the spread at home.
The Clippers are now playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights and we all know how bad they have been on the road this year.
Da Bulls get Da Win and cover.
Michael Cannon
30 Dime FRESNO STATE
15 Dime CLEVELAND STATE
Stephen Nover
25 Dime UTEP
15 Dime Fresno State
BYU playing in the New Mexico Bowl isn't exactly exciting for Cougar fans. They are more interested in how their basketball team fares Saturday afternoon against UCLA than in this minor bowl matchup.
This isn't the case, though, with Texas El-Paso. The Miners are close to Albuquerque, site of the bowl, and excited to participlte in their first post-season game in five years.
Motivation is a great equalizer in bowl games. Bad teams actually try harder because they have something to prove and are happy to be playing. One of the strongaest bowl trends is underdogs of seven or more points covering. That trend is cashing at a 64 percent rate since 2000.
BYU has a freshman quarterback, Jake Heaps. He's going to be very good, but right now he's learning. UTEP is led by senior Trevor Vittatoe, who holds the school record for passing yards and touchdowns.
Vittatoe, a four-year starter, has been hampered by a sprained ankle. The Miners last played a month ago. Vittatoe isn't quite 100 percent according to sources, but his ankle is better. The extra time has allowed the Miners' banged-up offensive line to get healthy.
BYU didn't finish its regular season until a week later when it lost by one point to Utah on a blocked field goal at the end. The Cougars are unfamilrar with this venue having played in the Las Vegas Bowl during the past five years. UTEP beat New Mexico, 38-20, at this site earlier this season.
The Cougars are just 2-5 ATS in non-conference. They don't have the motivation or overall talent this season to be laying this high of a number.
Fresno State - Northern Illinois is not happy to be in this very minor bowl game. The Huskies had grander visions.
But all that came crashing down whey they were stunned by Ohio in the MAC title game losing 26-21 as 17 1/2-point favorites.
That loss occurred just 15 days ago and wrecked Northern Illinois' great season, which had featured nine consecutive victories. The double whammy of getting past that defeat in such a short turnaround and losing their coach, Jerry Kill to Minnesota, is too much for the Huskies.
Fresno State is well coached under Pat Hill. The Bulldogs will be prepared and focused. They have a shorter distance to travel and are familiar with Bronco Stadium having played there against Boise State. This also is the third time in seven years the Bulldogs are playing in this bowl game.
The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS as a bowl 'dog. They have won and covered the past four times they've been a bowl 'dog.
I like Hill with extra time to prepare against a Northern Illinois coaching staff that is in flux. Wisconsin assistant Dave Doeren has been named Northern Illinois new head coach, but assistant Tom Matukewicz will handle the team in this matchup.
In non-conference action, Hill and Fresno State are 11-1 ATS when taking points.
STEVE DUEMIG
20 Dime - Fresno State
10 Dime - Northern Illinois/Fresno State Under.
5 Dime - Troy over Ohio.
Several factors here. The head coach of the Huskies, left to go coach the Univ. of Minlesota and he took both coordinators with him. The kids have to feel abandoned and hurt. Hurt for two reasons. They lost the MAC championship after rolling through the regular season and they have no coaches because they were deserted. On top of that, you find yourself in Boise freaking Idaho in the middle of winter on a blue field!!! And this is a reward?? Not hardly.
Pat Hill has had his teams in this game a couple of times before so his team is used to that field. Fresno State plus the points.
Weather is supposed to be a big factor in this game. The offaensive coord. Left with the head coach and I don't see anyone there to be effective enough to call them in a game situation. Northern Illinois/Fresno State Under.
Strictly a motivation play here. Troy really didn't beat anyone this year and kind of strurgled. Ohio lost to Kent in the last week of the season and took them out of the MAC championship game. How motivated are they do you think. One team grateful for a bowl bid and the other is like oh okay. Troy.
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Fresno St +2
3 Units Troy -2
6 Units Wichita St -4
6 Units Loyola Mary +6.5
2 Unit Parlay
4 Units Okla St. -5.5
4 Units Missouri St -12.5
Trace Adams
2500♦ Fresno State
1000♦ Texas A&M
Time for the Bulldogs to end their 2 year bowl losing streak, and they do it in a familar place, as Fresno has competed on this blue carpet many times in the past. Most recently they were skunked 51-0 almost a month ago to the date, but the good news for Fresno is they won't be playing Boise State this time out.
No, no, Fresno gets to tangle with MAC rep Northern Illinois, and the Huskies come into this one reeling off their MAC championrship outright loss to Miami-Ohio in a game they were near a 3-TD favorite in. Not only that, but their head coach Jerry Kill left to take over at Minnesota, and he took both coordinators with him!
That having been said, not real sure why the Huskies are actually the small favorite in this game?
Pat Hill is actually 2-0 with his teams in this particular bowl game, and his highly publicized salary pay cut has made his myth-like at Fresno, that is for sure.
The Bulldogs 4 losses this season have come against some stiff competition - Ole Miss, Nevada, Hawaii, and Boise State. Fresno has the size along their offensive line to beat down Northern Illinois smaller defensive front, and again, you cannot discount the fact Fresno is familiar with this venue from their past visits to Idaho.
The Huskies are "bowlnng" for the 3rd straight season, and the 4th in the last 5 years, and their 0-3 ledger getting outscored 81-20 does NOT instill confidence in a play on the Huskies, especially with the team in-flux thanks to the coaching changes installed.
Ride Fresno State as my 1st Ever 2500♦ Bowl Lock of My Life.
In college hoops, strong play on Texas A&M to pull away from Arkansas.
True, this game is not being played at Reed Arena, but Mark Turgeon's team will have plenty of support in nearby Dallas for this game against the Hogs.
Arkansas has caught an updraft, winning their last 4, but it is important to note that they have not played a true road game yet this season, and they have not played the caliber of competition that the Aggies have through their early season schedule.
A&M has tangled with the likes of Washington, Temple, and Boston College, and their stiffling defense will eventually wear down this very young Hogs team.
Arkansas is on a 3-8 spread slide their last 11 lined games, and their forrays into the Big 12 conference have not gone all that well, at 7-16 against the spread their last 23 games.
Go ahead and lay it with Texas A&M for a bonus 1000♦ winner
NorthCoast
Marquee Geo Southern + 9
ARLON SPORTS
2* So Carolina +18
2* West Virginia -10.5
2* Wisc Milwaukee +10.5
BOWL GAMES
2* So Miss +3
2* Navy +5
2* Tulsa +10.5