Rainman
3* Fresno
1* UTEP
1* Troy
1* Tory Under
DAVID MALINSKY
4* KANSAS/SOUTHERN CAL OVER
The oddsmakers are going to be just a step behind here, with the debuts of Josh Shelby and Jio Fontan making a difference for each of these teams in terms of depth, pace and offensive options. So we step in now to take advantage.
While Shelby is more of a big-time talent, it is Fontan that makes the biggest immediate impact. He averaged 15.3 points and 4.7 assists as a FR at Fordham before transferring, and he brings Southern Cal not only a top talent, but also an added option for a team that was severely lacking in depth. As such, Kevin O’Neill can loosen things up a bit now in terms of tempo, and while he might look to slow this way down at another time as a better way to compete with a superior opponent, with only three games to incorporate Fontan before Pac 10play, the Trojans are better served by getting more possessions, and more development, into play. As for O’Neill’s feelings about Fontan - "I've been coaching basketball for 30 years, and, unless I'm completely out of my mind, he's going to be the best leader I've ever coached."
Meanwhile Shelby joins an already-loaded Kansas rotation, and makes the Jayhawks even more difficult to guard. The Jayhawks can score inside and out and run the floor with precision, with has Bill Self pressing a bit more to take advantage of the athleticism. His game plan is to generate as many possessions and possible to wear this visitor down, which helps to get the pace right where we want it.
Will Cover
4* Baylor
3* Cleveland St
3* Richmond
NSA
20* Texas El Paso +11½
20* Fresno St +2
20* Troy -2
20* Oklahoma St -5½
10* UCLA +7
10* Utah Jazz +2½
Chuck OBrien
30 Dime – Fresno State
15 Dime – BYU
Fresno State
Although this pointspread has dropped from an opening number of Northern Illinois minus-3, still have to respect the underdog’s success in Fresno State bowl games (seven straight spread-covers, including four straight outright upsets by the Bulldogs). Also have to acknowledge Fresno State’s familiarity with the surroundings (they play on Boise State’s “Smurf Turf” every other year – including a disheartening 51-0 loss to Boise State a month ago, plus two bowl victories over Virginia and Georgia Tech). … Northern Illinois had a tremendous season, but most of its success came in the crappy Mid-American Conference, where the Huskies ran the table in the regular season only to get stunned by Miami (Ohio) in the league title game, losing 26-21 as a 17½-point favorite. The MAC was way down this year, while Fresno’s league (the Western Athletic Conference) had a banner year (tri-champs Hawaii, Nevada and Boise State all finished with 10-plus wins and all are currently ranked in the Top 25).
Not only did the Bulldogs face all three of those solid WAC squads, they played at Ole Miss and bookended the season with an opening victory over Big East foe Cincinnati (28-14) and a season-ending upset of Big Ten squad Illinois (25-23). That’s the same Illinois that handed Northern Illinois a 28-22 loss back in September. Thus there’s no debating that Fresno had a MUCH tougher road to this bowl game than the Huskies. … Two intangibles to note here: First, the Bulldogs have dropped back-to-back bowl games (both the New Mexico Bowl) by a combined 12 points, so you know they’re coming to play today. Secondly, after losing the MAC championship game, Northern Illinois coach Jerry Kill resigned for the Minnesota job – not only that but he took his offensive and defensive coordinators with him. That means the Huskies will have a stripped-down coaching staff guiding them today, while Fresno State will have 14-year coach Pat Hill (a veteran of 10 previous bowl games) on their sidelines.
Finally, Northern Illinois is in pointspread slumps of 0-6 at neutral sites, 0-4 in December, 1-5-1 against the WAC and 2-9 against winning teams. And the Huskies’ 27-3 loss to South Florida in the International Bowl last year is part of the MAC’s 2-15 postseason slump going back to 2006.
BYU
There are a lot of philosophies when it comes to handicapping bowl games, but one that I consistently subscribe to is “ride the team with momentum.” Well, in this New Mexico Bowl that team is clearly BYU. After starting the season 1-4 – including an embarrassing 31-16 loss to instate little brother Utah State - , the Cougars closed on a 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS run. The only two losses came at TCU (no shame there) and at Utah in the season finale (a stinging 17-16 setback after BYU took a 13-0 lead into the fourth quarter). The Cougars closed strong for two main reasons: The defense turned things around (16 ppg allowed last seven contest) as did freshman QB Jake Heaps (9 TDs, 1 INT in the last four games after starting out with a 2-7 TD-to-INT ratio). … UTEP’s season, meanwhile, was the complete opposite of BYU’s. The Miners starting strong with wins in five of their first six games, but ended on a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS slump, including a 34-24 loss to lowly Tulane as a 10-point home favorite. That UTEP got to 6-6 was a product of a weak early season schedule that featured wins over an FBS squad (Arkansas Pine-Bluff) and four opponents that finished a combined 8-40!
Yes, this is a hefty number for one 6-6 team to be laying against another 6-6 team. However, three of the best teams UTEP faced (Houston, UAB and Arkansas) spanked the Miners by respective scores of 54-24, 21-6 and 58-21, while BYU’s final three victories came by scores of 55-7, 49-10 and 40-7. … There’s a reason this matchup of .500 teams features such a big pointspread: BYU (4-1 ATS in its last five December games, all at neutral sites) is the superior team.
RAS
1.5 Units E Wash +20
1.5 Units UCLA +6.5
1 Unit James Madison +5.5
Brandon Lang
Troy -2
Kyle Hunter
5* College Hoops Play of the Day - Wichita St -4
The Wichita State Shockers should have beaten UConn in Maui, but they lost at the end. Wichita State also lost to a very good San Diego State team. The Shockers are a high quality team and I think they'll show that in this game. In their last two games, LSU has lost to Coastal Carolina in overtime, then beat McNeese State in overtime. They also only beat Central Michigan by four at home. Earlier this year Nicholls State beat the Tigers by nine on a neutral floor. Wichita State dismantled Nicholls State by 18 on a neutral floor. The Shockers go ten deep, and they have numerous guys who can beat you with the three ball. The Shockers play very good man to man defense, and they allow opponents to shoot just 40.6%. Wichita State is great on the defensive glass, which should limit LSU to one shot almost every possession. The LSU Tigers have struggled with teams who have quality guards and the Shockers definitely have that. I think Wichita State is the superior team. Take the Shockers here.
4* Dog of the Day - Cleveland St +11
The Cleveland State Vikings are 12-0, but very few people have been paying attention to them. I have already made money with them this season, and I think they are a good value again on Saturday. West Virginia is a very solid team, but they certainly aren't nearly as good as they were last season. The loss of Butler hurt this team quite a bit. The Mountaineers are still a strong rebounding team and I expect them to have a rebounding advantage in this one, but they don't force many turnovers, and Cleveland State has a great point guard in Norris Cole. Cole is the best guard on either team, and I really like his quickness. Last year West Virginia squeaked out a two point win at Cleveland State. Two years ago the Mountaineers beat the Vikings by ten at home. The Mountaineers aren't quite as good as they were then, and the Vikings are much better. I like Cleveland State getting the 11 points here.
4* Bookie Basher - Baylor -7
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are not the same team they have been the last few years. They were beaten badly by Washington State on the road earlier this year, and they beaten handily by Illinois as well in Seattle. The Baylor Bears haven't played much tough competition yet this year, but they have dominated everyone they have played. What is the secret to Baylor's success? The Bears are first in all of college basketball in points allowed, and they are shooting 50% from the floor. They are only allowing opponents to shoot 35.5% from the floor. Gonzaga lost a close one to Notre Dame, but they were only close at the end because they made 11-20 three pointers. I expect Baylor to contest those threes and make life miserable for Gonzaga on offense. Baylor is also one of the top rebounding teams in the country. The crowd will be very pro-Baylor, and I think the Bears will make a statement in this one.
Northcoast
Fresno St
Dr. Bob
2* Cal Poly SLO (+14) over CALIFORNIA
Cal Poly lost is offensively challenged but the Mustangs lost by just 11 points as an 18 point dog at UCLA and lost by just 6 points as a 24 ½ point dog at San Diego State. Those competitive losses as big dogs are a good omen today, as the Mustangs apply to a very good 173-72-6 ATS big road underdog situation that they also applied to against San Diego State on Monday but I passed on that one because I thought the line was too low. That is not the case here, as my ratings favor Cal by 13 points. I’ll take Cal Poly in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.
Opinion/Possible Best Bet
South Alabama (-4½) over GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Georgia Southern is one of the worst teams in all of Division 1 basketball and all 3 of their wins have come against non-Division 1 teams. South Alabama is only 3-5 straight up but the Jaguars have beaten the two bad Division 1 teams that they’ve faced and they apply to a solid 93-48-1 ATS road favorite situation. My ratings favor South Alabama by 4 ½ points and I’ll lean with the Jaguars at -4 ½ or -5 points. I’ll take South Alabama in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes back down to -4 points or less.
ETHAN LAW
(2%) FRESNO STATE +2
(1%) UTEP +12
BOB BALFE
UTEP +11.5
This is not the best matchup to start the college bowl season, but the first few games are weaker than the rest. I guess it’s a way to ease fans into the big important games. BYU started off slow, but ended the year on a nice winning streak to get bowl eligible. I cannot get over the fact that this team is a double digit favorite with a freshman QB, a freshman tight end and a freshman wide receiver. This team is young and I think they are way overvalued here. Jake Heaps is going to be a great QB but this is his first bowl game. BYU just does not have an explosive enough offense to be such big favorites. They would have to have a flawless game to win by this much and, after the big layoff, I do not think they will be in sync. UTEP has a great coach in Mike Price and a senior QB in Trevor Vittatoe, who has started 47 games in his career. All of UTEP’s skill players are seniors and they would love nothing more than to go out with a bowl victory. This should be a good game to start the bowl season. Look of UTEP to hang tight.
UTEP +11.5
This is not the best matchup to start the college bowl season, but the first few games are weaker than the rest. I guess it’s a way to ease fans into the big important games. BYU started off slow, but ended the year on a nice winning streak to get bowl eligible. I cannot get over the fact that this team is a double digit favorite with a freshman QB, a freshman tight end and a freshman wide receiver. This team is young and I think they are way overvalued here. Jake Heaps is going to be a great QB but this is his first bowl game. BYU just does not have an explosive enough offense to be such big favorites. They would have to have a flawless game to win by this much and, after the big layoff, I do not think they will be in sync. UTEP has a great coach in Mike Price and a senior QB in Trevor Vittatoe, who has started 47 games in his career. All of UTEP’s skill players are seniors and they would love nothing more than to go out with a bowl victory. This should be a good game to start the bowl season. Look of UTEP to hang tight.
Ohio +3
Troy comes into the New Orleans Bowl as Sun Belt Champs for the 5th straight year, but all their wins are over very weak programs year after year. I do not think this team is capable of beating a 8-4 Ohio team who plays exceptional defense. The real key in this game is the Ohio offensive line, who averages 53 pounds more per man than Troy's defensive line. In addition to Troy being very undersized on the line, they have no starters from last year on this unit. Ohio should control the line of scrimmage and pound the ball on the ground all night. When running the ball gets old, they will air it out with ease against a bad Troy defense. On the defensive side of the football, we have 4 seniors with a lot of game experience ready to get after the freshman Troy QB. This game should be a complete blowout and not even close if Ohio takes advantage of their size and experience. Take Ohio.
New York Knicks -5
The Knicks are on the verge of getting back to being a decent basketball team for the first time in a decade. They have to beat weaker teams like the Cavs in order to get there. NYC has gone too long without a winning basketball team. Look for the Knicks to get a big road win and watch out for them for the rest of the year.
Texas +3.5
UNC has played well to start the season, but Texas is a better team right now and should confuse the Tar Heels with their excellent defensive pressure. Look for the Longhorns to pull away in the second half. Take Texas.
SEABASS
100* Northern Ill
50* UTEP
50* Troy Over
50* Orlando
50* Wright St
50* Wichita St
50* Baylor
50* Boston Bruins
Helmut
Arkansas State +12.5
Kansas Under 138
Illinois Chicago Over 134
Texas A&M Under 133
Texas A&M -7
Billy Coleman
4* Troy Over 58
3* UTEP +11.5
3* Fresno St +1.5
5* Minn/Den Under 225
4* UNC -2.5
3* Clev St +11
3* S.Car +18
3* Wich St -4.5
3* Wash/Bos Over 5.5