Marc Lawrence
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College Bowl Key Play Kickoff Special!
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Play On: Wyoming
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The New Mexico Bowl kicks of the college football post-season when the Bulldogs take on the Cowboys in a battle of two teams with different mental approaches to this game. Fresno State returns for the second straight year wondering why an 8-win campaign failed to land a better bid than this low-tier bowl. Meanwhile, an uninspired Bulldogs squad enters this fray knowing that the favorite is 0-8 SU and ATS in the last eight Fresno State bowl games. That’s not good news if you’re a Fresno fan as favorites of more than 3-points are just 1-10 ATS returning to the same bowl they lost last year when facing an opponent off a win in its last game. Complicating matters is the fact that the Bulldogs were outstatted in each of their final five games of the season – and you never want a double-digit bowl favorite that gets outgained in a contest. Nor do you want to lay doubles with a team that surrendered an average 445 YPG against fellow bowl teams. Granted, Wyoming’s defense allowed identical yardage in ‘bowler vs. bowler’ games under new head coach Dave Christensen, but the Cowboys are absolutely ecstatic about being here while the Bulldogs are not. A major cause of concern for Pat Hill is his rush defense, one that has been ripped to shreds the last six games, allowing more than 292 RPYG. That doesn’t bode well for FSU as bow favorites that allow 150 or more rushing yards in a game are 37-137 ATS! Nor does the fact that pre-New Year’s Day double-digit favorites have covered the number in just 15 of 48 games since 1980. Remember, Wyoming’s last bowl appearance was as a 12-point dog against UCLA in the 2004 Las Vegas Bowl, a game they won straight up. We recommend a 3-unit play on Wyoming.
SIXTH SENSE
Opinion
NEW ORLEANS -7 Dallas 54
Cowboys moved the ball last week against SD. They averaged 4.0ypr to just 2.4ypr for SD, were out passed 8.1yps to 7.7yps but still had very good passing numbers. Overall, they out gained SD 6.0yppl to 5.3yppl. The problem is they couldn’t finish drives, either ending on downs or missing field goals. The Saints were actually out played in Atlanta but managed to win the game. They were out rushed 4.2ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed 8.7yps to 7.2yps and out gained overall 7.0yppl to 5.8yppl. For the season, Dallas averages 4.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is average at 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. The Cowboys move the ball on offense but their yards per point stand at 17.1 for the year and therein lies the problem. They can’t turn yards into points. Nothing is wrong with the Saints offense as they average 8.3yps against 6.3yps and 6.5yppl against 5.4yppl. That actually makes these two offenses almost the same but NO is averaging 11.9 yards per point, which is a huge difference compared to Dallas. The Saints allow 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl, meaning the Dallas defense is better than NO. Numbers favor NO by 7.5 points and predict about 53 points. NO qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 50-15-1 but Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 469-304-21. Saints have won every home game by at least eight points and scored at least 24 points in every game and at least 30 points in all but one home game. Cowboys have struggled on the road against good competition this year. They did defeat Philadelphia 20-16 but they have lost by seven at Denver and NY and by 10 at GB, where they scored in the last minute of the game or they would have lost by 17. Saints have totaled 75, 62 and 55 points at home when facing good offenses this year. I’ll call for a seven point game and let the line decide which way I lean. NEW ORLEANS 31 DALLAS 24
Teddy Covers
Wyoming +11
Dr Bob
2* WY +11
2* UCF +3
1* UCF/Rutgers UNDER 44
Matt Fargo
Wyoming at Fresno St
Play: Fresno St -11
Props go out to Wyoming for making a bowl game after being predicted, myself included, to finish either last or second to last in the Mountain West Conference. However the Cowboys are the perfect example why there are too many bowl games and why too many teams that are playing in bowls should not be. Wyoming finished the season 6-6 but one of those wins came against FCS Weber St. so even then the record is skewed. Another win came against New Mexico who finished with only one win on the season. Take away that victory, which was the largest of the season, and the other five wins (including Weber St.), came by a total of 16 points. Not average per game but total overall. On the season Wyoming was outgained by an average of 96.4 ypg and it finished the year going 0-5 against teams that are currently in bowl games. The Cowboys lost those games by a total score of 170-30. We have seen some bad bowl teams in recent years due to the expansion of the bowl circuit but this could be one of the all time worst. I made the mistake of backing Fresno St. last season in the New Mexico Bowl as it was favored over what I thought was a bad Colorado St. team but it ended up losing a very entertaining game by five points, 40-35. The Bulldogs are back again in Albuquerque facing another team from the Mountain West Conference and that loss last season to the Rams will only help it this year. Fresno St. was not a motivated team last year as its season was killed by three early losses by three points each and that completely took the life out of them. They ended up losing to Nevada and Boise St. by big margins and they simply were not happy to be where they were in the postseason and that lack of motivation negated the talent advantage that it has over Colorado St. This year, expectations were lower so coming into the bowl game with an 8-4 record is something they are happy with and they will want to finish out strong. After starting 1-3, the Bulldogs went 7-1 in their final eight games and even though the competition was suspect, the confidence level makes up for that. Two losses on the road came against Wisconsin and Cincinnati and those were by a total of 11 points. Those were good losses indeed. Wyoming is just 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons and is it 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games against teams that complete 58 percent or more of their passes. Fresno St. has the big rushing advantage and it is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining more than 200 yards in its previous game. As opposed to last season, Fresno St. gets it done in the postseason.
8* Fresno St. Bulldogs
Dave Cokin
Central Florida at Rutgers
Play: Central Florida +3
The game between Rutgers and Central Florida is one of those classic early bowl hookups where the better team is favored, but the weaker squad has a great chance to win the game and is the value play. Actually, the oddsmakers kind of tipped their hand on this one when they installed UCF as the favorite on the opening number, knowing full well that was going to attract Rutgers money, and that's precisely what has taken place. I totally agree with the assessment of the bookmakers and believe Central Florida will win the game. First off it's a virtual home game for UCF and from what I can gather, there's not a whole lot of pop among the Rutgers fan base over this less than spectacular matchup. The Scarlet Knights would have gotten a more prestigious bid had they not dropped their finale to West Virginia. On the flip side, UCF will be very well supported and the team seems very excited about the challenge. Beyond that, UCF is a bowl underdog that allows fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground, and this has been a huge winning angle for many post-seasons. That means the dog fits both statistically and from a likely motivational standpoint, and those two factors put me squarely on Central Florida plus the points.
Double Dragon
Wyoming +11
Saints -7
Pointwise Phone Service
3* WYOMING - UCF
Ben Burns
10* Top Non-Conf. Rivalry Game
Missouri St
Kelso
50 Units Fresno State -10.5
25 Units Dallas Cowboys +7.5
Tim Trushel
Wyoming
Red Dog Sports
4* College Basketball First-Half Total (16-8 last 24 totals)
UNC at Texas
Over 74' (1st Half)
Look for these two teams to play over in the first half. This game is being played at the Dallas Cowboy's new stadium and there should be 35,000 fans there. Expect a game with layups, 3's and foul shots as both can score. The second half may settle down but look for an over 74.5 to profit. Look for close to 80-82 points at the half.
BRANDON LANG
40 DIME - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - (if 7 1/2 you buy the 1/2, and lay 7. Never get beat by the hook) - The nightmare gets worse for the Cowboys tonight.
This Dallas team is going down in history as one of the worst December teams ever in the NFL.
First let's start with 3-15-2 ATS their last 20 games played in this month, including 0-2 already this year with the loss at New York against the Giants, and last week at home to the Chargers.
Let me also point out they are 3-10 ATS last 13 on the road.
The biggest thing that now jumps out at me about this football team is the fact they have only beaten one team this year with a winning record and that was Eagles 20-16 when Philly wasn't playing very well.
They have had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year, and for them to struggle the way they have going 8-5 SU and 6-7 ATS is insane. This is an overrated football team that has imploded on the road this year.
Yes, they beat the Bucs to open the year on the road, the aforementioned Eagles and the Chiefs - a game they should of lost before just getting by in OT.
Other than that, they have been flat out embarrassing.
Terrible effort at Green Bay in a horrific offense display 17-7. At Denver 17-10, and the implosion 2 weeks ago at New York against the Giants.
Now they have to travel on a short week to take on the best team in the NFC that has waited 2 weeks to get back home and hammer somebody after 2 lackluster efforts on the road at Washington and Atlanta.
This is going to be a long night for the Dallas defense.
In their 6 home games this year they have been flat out dominante, winning by margins of 18, 14, 21, 8, 10 and 21.
Inside those wins you will see the Jets and the # 1 defense in the league lose 24-10, the Giants 48-29 and lastly the Patriots 38-17. They did have Atlanta down 23-9 at the start of the second half before falling asleep at the wheel, and allowing the Falcons to make a game of it.
The Dallas Cowboys just happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and if you think Tony Romo is going to have a great day, he needs to call Tom Brady and have a quick conversation based on what happen to Tom Terrific a couple of Mondays ago.
I have no reservations whatsoever laying this number in what I feel will be a double digit win by the Saints, and a game I feel will go just about the same way the Patriots game did and that is a 3 touchdown blowout.
10 DIME - WYOMING COWBOYS - Just don't trust Fresno State laying double digits in a bowl game.
You look at this team as a bowl favorite and you will see lack of effort every time.
In their 3 roles as a favorite they were beaten 40-35 last year by Colorado State as a 2 1/2 point favorite, in 2005 lost to Tulsa 31-24 as a 7 point favorite, and in 2000 they lost to Air Force 37-34 as a 4 1/2 point favorite.
Hard motivating kids to play a bowl game when they had bigger plans when the season started, and they go play in New Mexico against a team like Wyoming.
As for the Cowboys, they have played hard all year long as since the 4th week of the season only 3 teams have beaten them by more than 10 points and that was Utah, BYU and TCU. Not exactly 3 bad teams to get beat by.
This Wyoming team will play this game like it's their Super Bbowl, will clearly have more motivation and will be glad to be here.
I am going to grab the double digits with the team that has gone a very nice 8-3 ATS this year and look to cash in with them one more time.
10 DIME - GONZAGA BULLDOGS - I will gladly look to cash in on this inflated Duke public line all day long.
Across the board I can't think of a team that matches up this good with Duke, and won't be intimidated by playing at Madison Square Garden.
Only two teams have beaten the 'Zags this year, and that was Wake Forest by 2, and Michigan State by 4. That is how competitive this Gonzaga team has been.
Duke is Duke, and they are crusing along with just 1 loss this year and that was at Wisconsin and although I know the 'Zags have to play great basketball to win this game outright, they most certainly match up well with the Blue Devils in what I feel will be a fantastic game wire to wire.
There is value with the Bulldogs here, and the public continues to have a fantastic fascination with the Dookies and because of that, I will gladly grab the line value with the 'Zags in a game I feel goes right down to the wire.
Anthony Redd
20 Dime - Cowboys/Saints Over
Al DeMarco
15 Dime - New Orleans Saints
I am not at all concerned that New Orleans struggled to score three-point wins at Atlanta and Washington the past two Sundays. You might recall that prior to beating up New England late last month, the Saints were in a similar spot. True, they had crushed Tampa a week earlier, but the Sunday prior they barely got by lowly St. Louis on the road 28-23, and that game was preceded by a tough 30-20 home win versus under-performing Carolina.
Unlike the Colts, who are seemingly wishy-washy when it comes to their desire to either finish 16-0 or rest their starters for an anticipated lengthy playoff run, New Orleans wants an undefeated season, not only for the long down-trodden franchise, but for the community, which has used the team as a rallying point since Hurricane Katrina. And they've got a head coach in Sean Payton and quarterback in Drew Brees that know only one way to play: all-out, all the time.
This is another opportunity for the Saints to serve notice to the public and the NFL that they are as good as advertised. A marquee foe on national TV just like when the Patriots came calling on Monday night. I was all over New Orleans in that contest and I'm backing the Saints again tonight for many of the same reasons.
Think about this: New Orleans has greater balance and is more lethal offensively than the San Diego team that just upset the Cowboys in Dallas. Brees directs an offense that averages 426 yards and 35.8 points per game. Plus, the Saints' receiver corps is better than San Diego's and their three-headed running back trio of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush offers talent and diversity that the Chargers could only dream of with an aging LT propping up the backfield.
The Saints are on a 10-4 ATS run in the Superdome, where they've scored huge wins in their three biggest games this season, rolling over the then-undefeated Jets 24-10, crushing the then-undefeated Giants 48-27, and blowing out the supposedly invincible Patriots 38-17. On the other hand, all I can say about the Cowboys - other than the fact they've lost two in a row - is that they've failed to cover six straight road games in the month of December.
Expect a high-scoring entertaining affair with the Cowboys hanging tough for most of the first half - much like the Patriots did - before Brees pulls the Saints away with a second-half burst as New Orleans prevails 37-20.
Strategy
This line moved up from 7 to 7 1/2 on Friday. Go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point if you have New Orleans at -7 1/2. If your price is -8, forget about buying the hook because that's not a key number to concern yourself with when it comes to buying insurance.