Trace Adams
1500* - New Orleans Saints
500* - Fresno State Bulldogs
500* - Butler Bulldogs
Yikes, sucks to be a Dallas Cowboys fan this time of year, doesn't it?
Just like the title of Tom Petty's song, Dallas is "Free Fallin" right now, and while this is a "must win" for the Pokes, I just don't see it happening.
It is a well documented fact the Cowboys under Wade Phillips are 0-6 against the spread on the road in December since 2007. In fact, Dallas is 3-15-1 against the spread their last 19 games in the 12th month of the year, and while Tony Romo is actually playing decent, the fact is he is just 5-10 straight up as a starter in December.
To compound matters, the Cowboys ain't playing Tampa Bay this evening. No, these Saints are marching towards regular season perfection, and can clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win tonight, and a Vikings loss on Sunday.
The Saints ONLY home game in the last 5 weeks was their Monday night rout of New England back on November 30th. Expect another rowdy crowd in the bayou this Saturday night at the Superdome where the Saints have covered 10 of their last 14 home dates.
With DeMarcus Ware not at 100%, and the Dallas psyche not anywhere near 100%, expect the Saints to join the Colts at 14-0.
Lay it!
1500♦ - New Orleans Saints
Do you realize that in 12 games this season, Wyoming has been shut out 3 times, has been held to 10 points in 3 games, and has scored 17 points or less in 8 of those 12 contests?
I am not saying the Cowboys are going to get blanked here, but I don't think they are staying inside of this number.
Fresno State may not have the pointspread record to support laying double-digits, as the Bulldogs have failed their last 4 bowl tries when favored, but with their loss in this bowl game to Colorado State last year as the favorite, I think you are going to see a more "focused" effort from Pat Hill's team today.
State's defense is healthier than it was last year at this time, and they did go 2-1-1 against the spread this year when laying double-digits.
With this being Wyoming's first bowl game since 2004, and Coach Christensen's first bowl game as a head coach, have to side with the experience Pat Hill brings to the table.
Go with Fresno State minus the points.
500♦ - Fresno State Bulldogs
Speaking of Bulldogs, Butler's muderous early season schedule will pay dividends today against Xavier.
Butler has already played the likes of; Northwestern, Minnesota, and Ohio State out of the Big 10. They have also battled Clemson, and Georgetown, and have a 7-3 record to show for it.
Xavier has also played some solid competition, but my money is on Butler for the second meeting in as many seasons. Last year the Bulldogs beat a better Xavier edition, 74-65 at Xavier as the 8-point dog.
No issue laying a little wood with Butler as they handle the Musketeers for the 2nd season in a row.
500♦ - Butler Bulldogs
Brett Atkins
25 Dime NFL Saturday Night Super Lock - DALLAS COWBOYS
Dallas has the ability to stop teams and pressure quarterbacks and they will get after Drew Brees tonight and stop the Saints' running game, which is really the catalyst for the passing game. New Orleans has failed to cover in five of their last seven and two of their last three at home. Dallas is in a must-win and even if they fail, it won't be by more than this spread. Grab the points and play the Cowboys.
10 Dime Bowl Book Buster - WYOMING COWBOYS
Fresno State always plays to the level of the competition. If they have to rise up, they do. If they are playing a mediocre team, the Bulldogs put on a mediocre performance. They are 0-4 ATS in bowl games as favorites and they play uninspired in games like this. Wyoming will give it everything they have and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine. Grab all these points and play the Cowboys.
Charley Sutton
250 Unit Fresno State
50 Unit Cowboys
50 Unit Cowboys-Saints Under
Fresno State vs. Wyoming
FRESNO STATE - Wyoming comes into the New Mexico Bowl catching about 10 1/2 points against Fresno State. That won't be enough as the Bulldogs cruise to an easy victory over the Cowboys. Consider that coming into this game Wyoming has gone just 2-4 SU its last 6 games, losing by about 17 points per game (28.6-11.1). Now they face a Bulldogs team that just finished its season two weeks ago, getting a strong outright 53-52 victory on the road at Illinois. The Bulldogs, who are 6-3 ATS their last 9 games and 7-1 SU their last 8 games will get a strong win over the Cowboys.
Cowboys at Saints
COWBOYS - Even though the Saints are a perfect 13-0 SU this season, lately they haven't been much of a money maker. New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS its last 7 games and has failed to cover in each of its last two and is only 1-2 ATS its last 3 games at home. The Cowboys, even though they're just 1-4 ATS their last five games and only 2-3 SU in that stretch, they've only been outscored, on average, 16.2-15.8. And tonight, they're catching about 7 1/2 points, depending on where you're playing this. Dallas will keep this one close and cover on the road.
Cowboys-Saints
UNDER - The number set for tonight's game is hovering around 53 1/2 points. Tonight, take the Under. Coming into this game the Cowboys have stayed Under the Total in 5 of their last 6 games. The Saints, surprisingly, have stayed Under the Total in 3 of their last 4 games and have seen the Under go 4-2 their last 6 games. Scoring will be at a premium tonight as these two stay Under the Total.
Chuck O'Brien
20 DIME - WEST VIRGINIA
10 DIME - WYOMING
West Virginia
Cleveland State was one of college basketball’s darlings a season ago, winning 26 games and upsetting 12th-ranked Wake Forest in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Turns out, the Vikings were a one-hit wonder. They returned just two starters from last year’s squad, and though they won three of their first four to begin the season, they’ve since lost six of their last seven, with the only win during this stretch coming against Wilberforce of the NAIA! … Meanwhile, West Virginia is ranked seventh in the nation and is off to a perfect 7-0 start, with six of those victories being double-digit blowouts (all by 18 points or more). The only team to hang with the Mountaineers to this point was Texas A&M (73-66 final on a neutral court), and A&M has been ranked the last several weeks. … The Mountaineers have had some offensive lulls in recent games (they scored just 68 points against Duquesne and 69 against Coppin State the last two games), but their defense has been superb all year, allowing just 55.1 ppg (including holding the aforementioned Duquesne and Coppin State to 39 and 43 points, respectively). On the other hand, defense is a foreign concept to Cleveland State, which gives up more than 71 ppg, including a 78-70 home loss to Robert Morris on Tuesday. At the same time, the Vikings are averaging just 60.7 ppg during their six-game losing streak to Division I opponents. … Finally, in its only game against a Top 25 opponent so far, Cleveland State got punked by Kentucky 73-49 as a 12-point underdog at a neutral site.
Wyoming
Wyoming was just a 6-6 football team and has one of the worst offenses of any bowl team in recent memory (in fact, the Cowboys were shut out three times this year), while Fresno State went 8-4, has the nation’s leading rusher, put up more than 34 points per game and nearly knocked off Wisconsin and Cincinnati, both on the road. So why take the points here? Because the Bulldogs have a history of laying down like, well, dogs, in mediocre bowl games against inferior competition. Consider: In its last nine bowl games, Fresno is 3-1 SU and ATS as an underdog, but 0-5 SU and ATS as a bowl favorite. Add it up and the ‘dog has won and covered eight of the Bulldogs’ last nine bowl contests (with seven outright upsets). That includes Fresno’s 40-35 loss to Colorado State as a two-point favorite in last year’s New Mexico Bowl …. The Bulldogs have been a brutal favorite overall in recent years, cashing just eight times in their last 30 as a chalk while going 5-15 ATS in their last 20 as a double-digit favorite. Meantime, Wyoming closed the coach Dave Christensen’s first year on a 7-2 ATS run (6-2 ATS as a ‘dog). … There’s no telling what Fresno State’s mindset is going to be playing in the same bowl game for the second straight year against an opponent that needed a one-point win in its final game just to get to .500 and earn a bowl game. At the same time, Wyoming is stoked to be in its first bowl game since 2004 – when, ironically, it upset UCLA 24-21 as a 12½-point underdog
Joel Tyson
500♦ - New Orleans Saints minus the points
200♦ - Fresno State minus the points
200♦ - Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points
After watching Dallas implode on Sunday at home in a game they had to have, and after watching Indy handle matters on Thursday at Jacksonville, I am convinced the Saints will keep pace with the Colts, and kick some Dallas ass this Saturday night. The Dallas December Dive is for REAL, as the Cowboys stand at 3-15-1 against the spread their last 19 December games!New Orleans is finally back home after playing just 1 home game in their last 5 games, and we all remember what happened the last time they played at home, as the crushed New England under the Monday night lights to make it a 10-4 home spread run their last 14.Make it 11-4 after tonight.
200♦ - Fresno State minus the points
This is the same bowl game Fresno State played in last season, and it is the same bowl game that saw them lose to Colorado State as the 2 1/2-point favorite.With Wyoming making their first bowl showing since 2004, and their first under new Coach Dave Christensen, expect veteran Pat Hill and his staff to have a huge advantage, and also a hige motivational edge, as they look to make amends for last season's bust in this game.The Cowboys have been offensively-challenged this year, as they were blanked 3 times in their 12 games.I can see this one getting away from the Pokes.Bulldogs roll.
200♦ - Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points
Here is another case where I feel the line dictates the play.
Central Florida arguably closed stronger than Rutgers, and there is no denying the fact the Knights from Florida will have a stronger fan base, as this venue is about 100 miles from their campus. Also of note, Rutgers WR Tim Brown is slowed by an ankle injury, and the Scarlet Knights did just finish up with their winter final exams.Still, cannot argue with Greg Schiano's bowl success of late, as Rutgers has been a winner in their last 3 bowl games, covering in 2 of 3, as they just missed last season in a 29-23 win as the closing 6 1/2-point favorite.Central Florida is making their 3rd bowl trip under George O'Leary, and thus far they are 0-for-2 straight up, and 1-1 against the spread.I like the Knights from New Jersey to win their 4th straight bowl game, and cover this small impost.
ATS LOCK CLUB
3 Units on Central Florida (+3) over Rutgers, 8:00pmET
Dr Bob
2* WY +11
2* UCF +3
1* UCF/Rutgers UNDER 44
These are wrong
Dr Bob
Wyoming 28 Fresno St. (-11.0) 31 (at New Mexico)
I'll take Wyoming in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 3-Stars at +12 points or more. I'll also lean Over (55) at 56 points or lower.
Central Florida 20 Rutgers (-2.5) 19 (at St. Petersburg Bowl)
I lean with UCF as an underdog and I also lean with the Under (44) at 41 points or higher.
I'd consider UCF a Strong Opinion as a dog if it is announced that Brown will not play and as a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more if Brown is out.
Middle Tenn 28 Southern Miss (-3.5) 30 (at New Orleans Bowl)
I'll lean with Middle Tennessee at +3 points or more and I have no opinion on the total.
Chris Jordan
2000♦ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Dallas/New Orleans OVER 53
4* Wyoming +10.5
3* Rutgers -2.5
Daily Power Ratings
1 Unit New Orleans -7
Psychic Sports
4 Units Dallas +9 -120 (major)
3 Units OVER 53 (best bet)
3 Units Fresno -9.5 (best bet)
4 Units Central Florida +2.5 (major)
Kikki-Sports
2* GOM Atlanta Hawks
1* Jazz
1* Saints
1* Fresno State
1* C. Fla
ATS Financial Package
3 Units Dallas/NO Over 53
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
AWESOME ANGLEOF THE WEEK
Play Against:
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
PLAY AGAINST any 6-0 or greater undefeated NFL favorite of 5 or more points versus a sub. 666 opponent off a SU favorite loss.
NEW MEXICO BOWL
Fresno St over Wyoming by 6
We doubt Fresno State HC Pat Hill had neither the 6-6 Wyoming Cowboys
or a late afternoon kickoff in Albuquerque, New Mexico in mind during
his “anyone, anytime, anywhere” mantra. However, for the second
straight year, you’ll fi nd his Bulldogs opening the NCAA Bowl season in
New Mexico’s University Stadium. The good news for Hill and company is
that they won’t be up against the Saturday night New Orleans-Dallas NFL
showdown – that’s reserved for the “highly anticipated” Rutgers-Central
Florida matchup! The bad news: this WAC versus Mountain West pairing
is garnering absolutely no attention. But while today’s meeting certainly
doesn’t have the glamour of the TCU-Boise State contest, this is our type of
game. It has DOG written all over it. For starters, double-digit WAC bowl
favorites are just 1-4 ATS. We’re also drooling over the fact that the favorite
in the last nine Bulldogs’ bowl games is a bite-less 0-9 ATS, including 8
SU losses! Fresno State dropped a 40-35 decision to Colorado State as a
2.5-point choice on this fi eld last season and that ties in nicely to a stat
you can’t possibly fi nd anywhere else but PLAYBOOK: teams returning to
the same bowl are an unlucky 1-13 ATS if they allowed 39 or more points
in their last game of the season. MWC/WAC bowl pairings have certainly
been a puppy-fest, with the dog grabbing the ATS bone in fi ve of the
last six contests, including 4-1 ATS when taking more than eight points.
The Cowboys have also had their share of success as road or neutral dogs
against WAC foes, lassoing the cash eight of ten times. While we give Hill
credit for taking on all comers and receiving a bowl bid for the 10th time in
11 seasons, he might want to rethink his philosophy as his Bulldogs are just
2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS versus fellow bowlers over the last two seasons. In fact,
his troops enter this contest ‘leaking oil’ as they have lost the stats battle in
each of their last fi ve games. The experienced Bulldogs certainly merit the
role of favorites but our feeling here is that the upstart Cowboys, who are
making their fi rst bowl appearance since the 2004 Las Vegas Bowl (when
they upended UCLA, 24-21, as 12-point dogs), are once again in the right
‘place’ at the right ‘time’. Maybe Pat Hill should have taken the advice of
one of our favorites, Bugs Bunny, and “made a left turn at Albuquerque.”
Grab the doubles as it’s another dog-day afternoon.
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
Rutgers over Central Florida by 7
A battle of Knights highlights the renewal of the St. Petersburg Bowl when
Rutgers takes on Central Florida at Tropicana Field Saturday evening. For
UCF, the visit is a mere 87 miles down the road from its campus in Orlando.
Rutgers, on the other hand, will journey 1017 miles from New Brunswick,
looking to look to capture its 4th bowl win in as many years. Playing games
in visiting locker rooms has been much to the Scarlet Knights’ liking, where
they are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS away of late from Rutgers Stadium. They are
also 10-2 ATS outside of New Brunswick when playing off one loss exact.
Not surprisingly, neither team in this minor bowl fared well in games against
fellow bowl teams this season, where UCF was 2-4 SU and 1-5 ‘In The Stats’
while Rutgers went 2-3 SU and 1-4 in the stat wars. On the surface, it appears
UCF closed strong at 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its fi nal four games. A closer
examination inside the numbers show the southern Knights were outyarded
in three of the four contests. The deciding edge in this game comes from
our College Bowl System Book that tells us to fade teams off three ATS
win in their last three games if they won fi ve or less games the previous
season. That’s because these teams are just 14-32-1 ATS in bowl games since
1980. Sure, there will be more fans in the stands from Central Florida than
Rutgers, but they fi gure to head home disappointed. It’s a better Knight for
Scarlet than it is for the St. Petersburg Chamber of Commerce.
4* BEST BET
Dallas over NEW ORLEANS by 3
Unlike the Colts, the Saints have made it very clear they want to
run the table during the regular season. With only a home game
against Tampa Bay and a road trip to Carolina left on the schedule,
this Saturday night special may very well stand between the Saints
and their shot at infamy. With all that being said, we’ll side with the
December swooning Cowboys – and as a Best Bet, no less. Yes, we
may have dipped into the eggnog a little early this holiday season.
However, we’re sober enough to see that big ol’ noose, disguised as
beads, hanging around the necks of Saints’ players – the same noose
that has caused them to drop fi ve of seven on the ATS scoreboard.
That noose even gets a little heavier when you realize the Saints are
0-3 ATS when playing on Saturday and just 1-8 ATS at home off BB
SU wins versus an opponent off back-to-back SU losses. If the ‘Boys
miss the playoffs for the 2nd straight season, embattled HC Wade
Phillips may be leaving the range sooner than later. Lucky for us, we
catch him in one of his best roles – that of a dog versus undefeated
opposition, where he is a stellar 7-1 ATS, including a perfect 4-0
ATS off a loss. Also, lucky for us is this little gem our PLAYBOOK.
com database unearthed: teams off a SU favorite loss from Game
Seven out are 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS versus an undefeated foe. The
feeling here is the Cowboys will be looser away from home and will
be facing less pressure in trying to win a game down the stretch.
D-A-L-L-A-S, at least tonight in New Orleans, spells hangman – and
our AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK on Page 2 confi rms it!
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
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