Lee Sterling
1* Central Florida
1* Dallas/New Orleans Over
Sports Bank
400% Rutgers Under
500% Illinois State
Underground Sports Connection
400* Washington -9.5
Chris James Sports
3* New Orleans Saints -7.5 (Buy down to -7)
2* Rutgers/Central Florida Under 45
4* Phoenix Suns -10.5
2* Utah Jazz +2.5
2* Chicago Bulls +4.5
2* Los Angeles Lakers -13
2* Syracuse -20
Wunderdog
Nashville at Calgary
3 Units UNDER 5.5
The Flames have been fanning on offense of late and will have to rely on solid "D" and net-minding here. The Flames are struggling to just 15 goals in the last eight, or fewer than two per contest, which means that they must turn up the "D" here at home. That is something which has been a given of late after a win as the Flames are going UNDER to an 11-1-1 after a win, and 18-7-1 on the low side overall in their last 26 games. Historic value is found on the UNDER as well, as the last 11 times these teams collided on the ice the UNDER scores the money in eight of them. I like this one to follow suit, so I will play UNDER the total.
Florida at Carolina
5 Units Carolina -140
It would have been unthinkable to back this Hurricanes team through the worst period of games in franchise history. They still don't look like a solid team, coming out on the wrong side in eight of their past 11, but a quick look shows that eight of those were played on the road. What they have been able to do is re-establish premier play at home as they have been in the money in five of their last seven. Florida drubbed them last night by a 6-3 count, so they have extra incentive at home where they have been tough of late. The Panthers are a money-burning 20-47 with no days of rest while the Hurricanes are now 72-34 in their last 106 on home ice vs. a team with a losing road mark. The Hurricanes get revenge here.
Minnesota at Ottawa
3 units Minnesota +100
3 units OVER 5 -140
The Minnesota Wild is a completely different team since the first part of the season. After coming out on the wrong end of 14 of their first 21 games, the Wild has come together and have now come out on the right side of 10 of their last 13 games. The offense has led the way to the improvements as the Wild scored four goals or more just three times in those first 21 games. In their last 13 they have touched five goals on four separate occasions and are now averaging three per game over that same period. The Senators’ fortunes have reversed themselves as they have come out on the right side of just four of their last 11, allowing 38 goals in the process, or 3.5 per game. I like the hot Wild scoring in bunches to win this one, and play OVER as well.
New Jersey at Atlanta
3 Units on New Jersey -110
The Thrashers have been a mediocre team all season, and the Devils bring their "A" game on the road, currently at 11-2-1 through 14 roadies. Aside from a three-game winless stretch, the Devils are showing 21 of 24 turning up on the right side of things. Getting them here at what amounts to be even money is a bargain for sure. They have been even more effective without rest as they have turned in a perfect score - eight straight without a loss! The Thrashers are having trouble skating with the big boys, turning in a 26-58-4 mark in their last 88 on the ice with teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better. I’m on the Devils all the way here.
Boston at Toronto
3 Units on Boston -110
The Bruins have been sluggish over their last three games and hope to get nasty tonight in Toronto. The Leaf's have played crummy hockey all season at home, so this is a good spot for the Bruins to rebound here. With their stellar domination over the Northeast, they now stand at 26-6 in their last 32. The Leafs’ poor performance without rest now stands at 17-35 in their last 52 and that doesn't bode well here vs. a excellent team that is needing a win. The Bruins have completely dominated this Leafs team winning the last seven which includes a perfect march to Toronto where they are 4-0. I'll go with
Winning Points
Wyoming
Central Florida
New Orleans
Chris Jordan
2000♦ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - I loved this game when the line came out, and though I’ve seen the heavy money come in on the Saints, I think it’s all justified. There are several contributing factors to this blowout, but what sprung to mind last Sunday night after watching the Cowboys fall to San Diego was the following:
The Saints dismantled and embarrassed the New England Patriots in the Superdome, and I believe the Pats are better than the Pokes. The Cowboys couldn’t do a thing right against the Chargers, and I think the Saints are better than the Bolts. So with the Cowboys having to prepare on a short week, and Saints coach Sean Payton – formerly with the Cowboys – getting to defend a quarterback he helped mold, I think anything less than double digits is a steal tonight.
Look, I know the Saints have barely gotten by lately, squeaking out wins at lowly Washington and in Atlanta, against an always-tough division rival. But look at the Saints’ schedule since mid-November, at which point they were outscoring opponents by an average final of 37.8-21.7, a margin of 16 points.
But since Nov. 15, admittedly, the margin has dropped. Against St. Louis, Tampa, New England, Washington and Atlanta, the average final is 32.6-20, a margin of 12 points per win. Yes, New Orleans’ scoring has been scaled back, as has the margin per win, but now take in consideration the following: over the past 35 days – exactly five weeks – the Saints have played four of those games on the road.
Figure the team has been on the road 12 of those days, arriving two days before each game, and spending the third day playing in St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington and Atlanta. So it wasn’t as dominating as you may have expected, but sandwiched between that quartet was the 38-17 shellacking of the Patriots.
That game was at home. Like today’s.
And in case you haven’t been reading the headlines, they’re starting to call Who Dat the new America’s Team. If that’s the case, the Saints need to knock off the age-old America’s Team, and I say they need to do it handedly.
Let’s be real, no matter the season and no matter how good the Cowboys are, it’s always satisfying for an opposing team to annihilate the Pokes. That goes back to when Tex Schramm owned the team – it’s not a Jerry Jones thing. That goes back to when Tom Landry coach; it’s not a Wade Phillips thing, just as it wasn’t a Jimmy Johnson, Barry Switzer, Chan Gailey, Dave Campo or Bill Parcells thing ... you get the point.
So while everyone is making too much out of the Saints’ secondary, and wondering if the mettle of this team has been tested, I’m here to tell you this team is playing to the level of competition and has simply been tired. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams knows what he’s doing, he knows when to dial up 1-800-B-L-I-T-Z-Q-B, and when not to so he has enough defenders dropping back into coverage. He also knows how to effectively utilize blitzing packages to neutralize the rushing game, something the Cowboys will depend on.
Williams’ unit is going to be fired up, in looking to send a message over to the other undefeated team in the league, making a statement that the Saints are good on both sides of the ball and that Indianapolis better come stronger than Peyton Manning’s heroics.
Start fast and finish strong, that’s been the Saints’ battle cry most of the season, and it should be the tune they sing tonight against a hapless Cowboys team that will finally be put out of its misery.
Who Dat 2,000♦ winner … the Saints! Enjoy the game.
NOTE: The line has been all over the place the past 24 hours, and for the most part I am seeing the line at 7-1/2 at this point. My suggestion is that you buy the 1/2-point down to 7 points when laying the favorite tonight.
Do I believe the Saints roll in this one? Absolutely! But the fact is that this is such a vulnerable number - the 7-point spread - that the Saints could be up by double digits late, with the game in hand, when coach Sean Payton decides to avoid injury and pulls his starters. Far be it for me to become victim of the backdoor-cover with some garbage-time points and see this game fall right on seven.
Thus, when playing the Saints, my advice to you is bet the best possible line, which at this time happens to be 7 points.
WUNDERDOG
Gonzaga at Duke
3 Units UNDER 154
Gonzaga isn't up to the standards of teams we have seen in the past, and the Blue Devils are a tick down as well. But both of these teams bring intense defense every night, which is the trademark of both coaches. While the Bulldogs have put up big offensive numbers, games vs. top teams have seen them at 75 points or less in all of them. Following the same pattern the Dukies scored 100 on three occasions and 96 points in another, but vs. CT, Arizona State and Wisconsin, they couldn't find their way out of the 60s. This may look and promise to be a high-scoring affair, but it comes up short of the billing, so UNDER is the play here.
Northern Illinois at Illinois Chicago
3 units Northern Illinois +5.5
While the Illinois Chicago Flames have had their time in the spotlight this decade, this year the lights have dimmed. In eight outings on the hardwood, the Flames have managed a single two-point win vs. Div-1 competition - hardly what we saw from this team not so long ago. The Northern Illinois Huskies haven't been in the spotlight for quite some time, and this year are just 1-6 to start. The big difference however, is the most difficult schedule the Huskies have faced. They’ll have three Big-10 opponents, a top 25 caliber Northern Iowa team, and MVC Conference's Bradley. This one will be a step down for the Huskies, and often teams respond favorably under this situation. The road team has cashed the last four in this series and the Huskies have enough to make that five. I'll go with Northern Illinois here.
La - Monroe at Denver
3 Units La - Monroe +12
The Pioneers are on the fast track opening at 7-2 with a 6-1 mark at home. They have been shooting lights-out at over 47% for their last three, but that puts them in a bad situation for this one as teams that have had three hot games shooting tend to fall off in the fourth. That opens the door for the Warhawks who traded baskets with a solid Northern Colorado team to sneak in under the inflated number, bringing LA Monroe to 5-1 ATS vs. home teams winning at .600 or better. The Pioneers are a disinterested 1-4 ATS in their last five at home vs. a team with a losing record which opens the door here for the Warhawks to once again sneak in under the number. I’m on LA Monroe here.
Illinois State at Utah
3 Units Illinois State +6
The Redbirds have taken a hit in their last two after winning their first seven. This is a good team with a stat-filling star in Osiris Eldridge who is capable of carrying a team, but he has support that goes eight deep on this team. The evidence is mounting that the Utes aren't up to the caliber of club we have seen in the recent past as losses to Weber State, Seattle and Idaho have exposed. The Utes’ top two scorers are killing them with shooting in the 30's and long-range misfires at 30% each. The Utes consequently, are overrated and are turning in the doughnut in their last four as a chalk of 6.5 or less. The Redbirds are cashing in 13 of their last 19 as a road dog and are a live dog here. I'll go with Illinois State.
Game: Drake at Iowa
5 Units Iowa -5.5
The Hawkeyes will take some blows in conference play, but can certainly hold their own here vs. the Bulldogs. Drake has been holding a cupcake fest through 10 games, managing just a breakeven 5-5 mark. They will be challenged on the road here vs. an Iowa team that knows that they have to get wins in these games, so a no-show is out of the question. The Bulldogs have been the no-show vs. a losing team, misfiring to a 1-6-1 ATS mark in their last eight tries. The Hawkeyes are an impressive 13-5 ATS as home chalk up to 6.5 and get it done in this one. Iowa gets the nod.
St. Bonaventure at Syracuse
3 Units UNDER 153
Syracuse has been perhaps the biggest surprise in NCAAB so far. The loss of Johny Flynn and Devendorf were supposed to leave the Cuse in the middle of the Big East pack, but freshmen and players in expanding roles are responding has the Cuse is flawless through 10 games. They are scoring 75 plus in each of them. That certainly has a way of juicing the total beyond what is reasonable here vs. a Bonnie's team that is a slow-down type team, already logging three opponents with scores of 47 or less! St. Bonaventure has played UNDER in 11 of their last 16 as a road dog, an indicator of the fact they won't allow a track meet when they are on the short side of talent in the game. The Cuse is 4-1 UNDER as chalk of 13+ makes this one look like it stays UNDER, so I'm going UNDER here.
Old Dominion at Georgetown
5 Units Old Dominion +9.5
This Talented Hoyas squad is perfect out of the gate sporting an 8-0 mark thus far. They are drawing a big number vs. a competent, always fundamentally sound Monarchs squad. The Hoyas are off of two big games that could leave them a bit uninterested here. The Monarchs’ close calls with Dayton, Richmond and Missouri, say that they have enough talent and resolve to hold their own here. The Hoyas have reached saturation level at home with the big name, but little in the way of results as their over-value has led to 1-7 ATS in their last eight at home. ODU has enough to stay inside an inflated Hoyas’ number, so I'll back Old Dominion in this one.
Portland at Washington
3 Units UNDER 150.5
Lots of games featuring teams with offensive reputations playing down in class get saddled with big totals to topple, and here we go again. Portland goes to Minnesota in a 61-56 game and manages just 66 vs. West Virginia. These teams that are stepping up in class have to slow things down or they get blown out as evidenced by the Pilots 7-2 mark to the UNDER vs. the Pac-10. The Huskies are 4-1 as a favorite of 7-12.5 shows the same tendency. When these totals hit the 150 mark we have to look hard at the UNDER and that is the case here.
ASA
5* Wichita State
3* Gonzaga
NSAWINS
20* Dallas under 53.5(100 Dime BIG TICKET Play)
20* Rutgers -2.5(100 Dime BIG TICKET Play)
20* Kentucky -22.5(100 Dime BIG TICKET Play)
10* Fresno St -10.5
10* Sacramento over 206.5
10* Villanova -28.5
DAVE MALINSKY
6* ORLANDO over PORTLAND
We started to see that Orlando was moving to NBA elite status LY when the Magic began to take losing very seriously. Over the past two seasons they are now 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS when playing at home off of a loss, beating the spread by a collective 108 points in those games,and we were along for many of the rides. We saddle up again here, as they begin a five-game home stand off of that dismal 104-86 loss at Miami on Wednesday, a stretch in which they will not leave the state in over three weeks. A comfort zone of a schedule stretch like that can help to build a chemistry for a team still fitting Vince Carter and Jason Williams into the mix, and having two full days to steam off of that ugly loss to the Heat means a lot if they use it the right way. We believe that they will, with virtually the entire roster showing a level of frustration. We can start with Stan Van Gundy on the sidelines - "The reality is that if you want to talk about being a championship contender?.that can't be good enough for you." From Vince Carter - "We're trying to accomplish something bigger than just winning games, so we have to come to play every night." And J. J. Redick - Every guy has to say to himself, What do I need to do to get better? It tells us that the mentality that has had them bouncing back so well off of losses should absolutely be there tonight. And that is bad news for a limited Portland roster. We lost a frustrating 5* ticket against the Trail Blazers on Thursday that did not have to be Phoenix had them down by 11 in the fourth quarter, but Nate McMillans team had a major role of the dice, with Steve Blake and Jerryd Bayless scoring 41 points off of the bench, knocking down 6-10 from 3-point range. That win helps to set up this low price range, but with so many key cogs missing from the roster it is not something that is going to repeat, especially with only Friday off to make one of the longest trips in the league, losing three hours in the time zone transition as well. And in a game that could easily get away, McMillan may choose to not chase all that hard, with a more realistic chance to win at Miami on Sunday.Orlando does not have many weaknesses, and those few that the Magic do have do not come into play tonight. Dwight Howards free throw shooting? Not an issue, because the Trail Blazers do not have any fouls to five up front. The non-existent defense of Jason Williams Portland can not attack because of the struggles of Blake and Andre Miller at the point. All of the pieces fall in place for an Orlando blowout in this one.
4* NORTH CAROLINA over TEXAS
The oddsmakers are giving Rick Barnes and his Longhorns a significant home court advantage in Texas Stadium for a setting that may provide precious little of it. And that leaves excellent value here to take a talented North Carolina team that will be awfully hard to take out of a game, especially given the way that the early-seasons schedule has the Tar Heels far more toughened to this point than the favorite.First the court. Yes it will be a partisan Longhorn crowd, but this is a three-hour trip to play a “home” game, and the players were not sleeping in their own beds on Friday night. They have never played a game on this court, and we also question the impact of the crowd in such a cavernous setting. Jerry Jones had originally been aiming to sell 75,000 tickets for this game, but after those delusions of grandeur went away they reduced the seating capacity to 46,753, and they expect a crowd of around 35,000. That will not have the impact of what an audience less than half that size would mean in Austin, and it should not bother a Tar Heel team that is accustomed to playing in hostile environments.This will be the 225th North Carolina game with Roy Williams on the sidelines, and only eight times in that span have the Tar Heels lost by more than seven points in regulation. They have already competed against four teams (Michigan State, Syracuse, Ohio State and Kentucky) that are better than anyone Texas has faced, and while they do bring some issues with their half-court offense against this class of defense, they are going to compete hard for the full 40 minutes, with enough athleticism, size, depth and moxie to be scrambling after every rebound and every loose ball. That makes it difficult for Texas to ever build much of a margin, and even if the Longhorns can the back-door remains open throughout because of their awful 61.6 percent free throw shooting. Yes, they do get Jai Lucas eligible today, but that also brings along chemistry issues, and that is a particular problem today, as they face the culture shock of running into players just as big and as quick as they are for the first time this season.
4* WYOMING over FRESNO STATE
Through the years double-figure underdogs in the minor bowl games have been a nice portfolio by themselves, and we have gone along for most of those rides. The logic is simple, but impeccable, from both sides of the equation: 1. If you are a big favorite in a game like this one it means that your program is of a level in which greater things were expected from the season, and the bowl is often a disappointment, instead of a reward; and 2. The worse a team is,which will absolutely be reflected in the line, the more of a reward it often turns out to be, since they are happy to have been given a chance to keep playing. Why dont the oddsmakers correct for this? Because they do not have to. The underdogs in these games look so unappetizing that the public will rarely get involved in that direction, and as the bowl season begins the public becomes a bigger factor in the proceedings than during the NCAA regular season.Which takes us to this game, and an almost textbook example of the concept. Literally the last place that Pat Hill and his Bulldogs wanted to play this December was here in Albuquerque. This will be the second year in a row to travel to a site that does not generate much interest for them, and for most of the second half of the regular season they thought that a trip to the Hawaii Bowl was in their grasp. It was not, even with that exciting win at Illinois in their final game, and now the factors all compound. A return trip to this venue to play in front of a tiny crowd does not create any spark, and getting plugged into this matchup also means a precariously short turnaround of only two weeks from that Illinois trip. For a team that has played at Illinois, Wisconsin, Cincinnati and Hawaii this season the mileage has added up as big as any we have ever charted, and we could see it take a clear toll down the stretch,when a worn-out rushing defense allowed at least 230 yards overland to each of the last five opponents. Now that defense does not get any time to regenerate, which leaves a flat and vulnerable favorite for this setting.Wyoming brings the prototype of the Play On underdog. The Cowboys did not harbor bowl aspirations in Dave Christensens first season, but gutted out enough close wins to qualify, and with their schedule ending on November 27th there is plenty of time to get fresh and prepare. That means a lot for an offense that has gone to a new playbook, and there is the benefit of having basically another full fall practice, which particularly helps with true FR Austyn Carta-Samuels at QB. There is plenty of operating room for this offense against the uninspiring Fresno defense (97th in Total Defense, 111th against the Run, and a dead last 120th in Sacks), and the defense can also bring some park, with that all-SR DL of Mitch Unrein, Fred Givens and John Fletcher that has started together almost since day one of their careers getting a chance to close out in style in their first bowl appearance (from Fletcher - "It makes all of it worth it -- the winter conditioning and the two-a-days, all that blood and sweat and tears that we've put in, it's all worth it," senior captain and defensive tackle John Fletcher told the Casper Star-Tribune. "We're getting the reward with a bowl game. For us seniors, it's huge.Look for Wyoming to compete to win this game outright to the final possessions, and for the Cowboys to stay comfortably with the generous spread.
Special K
Super 20* K-Bomb
Gonzaga
Great Lakes Sports
4* N Dame
3* Seton Hall
3* Missouri St
4* Port
3* Phil
3* Atl
4* Wyoming
Steve Duemig
25 Dime - Central Florida
Lots of things working against Rutgers here. First it is basically a home game for UCF as they have purchased enough tickets to make the game a sellout at Tropicana Field. It is also smack dab in the middle of finals for the Rutgers players so distraction about taking finals are at a max. Then we go to the field. Rutgers has a very shaky freshman QB in Tom Savage and UCF has two DE's that are in the top 10 in sacks. Both are in double digits, so he will be even more tentative than usual. We also see the line basically remaining at Rutgers -2.5 remaining the entire time after a short buy in on Rutgers. This usually means strong support for the dog here or it would have been pounded by sharp money at -2.5. It wasn't so we have to support where the support is. On the dog UCF
5 Dime - Saints
Oh Brother!! Delighted we get a game of this magnitude alone on a Saturday night, but C'Mon Man! Everything we are taught from a handicapping perspective has to go out the window. Normally we would jump on a dog that was really in a must win situation but we have a undefeated team at home this late in the season that has rolled everyone in big games, including the anhialation of fellow NFC East opponent Giants in a similar situation earlier . Many of sharp bettors have been burned by the Saints this year where it seems that traditional handicapping has to go out the window. Dallas is in their traditional swoon this time of year and NO in big games have looked absolutely jaw dropping. I'm going to take NO here in this spot. We are for the rarest of time, going to go away from traditional handicapping and go with our gut that says NO in a blowout, as they continue their amazing season. They are that good!! And BTW, when was the last time that Tony Romo has won a big game like this??? Never!!