Northcoast
2* Cowboys -6.5
This is a short road trip for the Cowboys who are 4-1 ATS vs the Cardinals since realignment. DAL is even statistically with the #5 and #32 units (+6 TO’s) vs the Cardinals #27 and #12 units (+3 TO’s) in the L4W prior to the DAL/PHI game 2 Wks ago. They are 4-1 ATS with Kitna at the helm prior to PHI and he’s put together respectable numbers on the road avg 226 ypg (64%) with a 5-3 ratio. While DAL has been outgained by 100 ypg on the road since Romo was KO’d they are +7 TO’s upsetting the Giants and the Colts. Its unknown who ARZ will field at QB here as Anderson will be released soon after the season ends and Whisenhunt may opt to keep Skelton (146 yds 41% 0-0 vs DEN) to gain valuable snaps. ARZ is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS at home TY being outgained by 95 ypg (+1 TO’s) with a 25-21 avg score. They have been outgained by 109 ypg (+2 TO’s) by NDIV foes TY with a 26-21 avg score (2-5 ATS). Despite their record the Cowboys are a playoff talent team that is playing hard for a potential new coach while ARZ is simply playing out the string while hoping for a better QB will be under the tree for 2011.
Marquee - Cowboys Over
Executive
250% Dallas -7
Teddy Covers
Boston / Orlando Over
Washington St
KELSO
25 Units Dallas -7
Ben Burns
10* Arizona Cardinals +7½
10* Los Angeles Lakers -3
9* Orlando Magic -2.5
AL DeMarco
Wash St
Jeff Benton
40 Dime Cowboys-Cardinals Over
33-30. 30-27. 38-35. 30-27. 35-19. 33-20. 45-7. 35-17. 41-35. 24-21. 34-27.
Nope, those aren’t this week’s winning Super Lotto numbers. Those are the final scores of the Dallas Cowboys’ last 11 games since they returned from their bye. You know how many of those 11 games flew over the posted total?
Every single one of them!
Now, I know what you’re thinking: “But Dallas is playing the offensively inept Cardinals tonight! The Cowboys are going to have to score 40 points by themselves to get this game over the number!” True enough, Arizona has scored 18 points or less in five of its last six games (producing a total of just 55 points in those five particular contests). However, the last five times Arizona faced leaky defenses – Denver, Seattle, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and New Orleans – it put up 43, 18, 24, 35 and 30 points, with all five games flying OVER the total. And four of those five games were at home.
Well, Dallas’ D certainly qualifies as leaky. The Cowboys have surrendered 30 points or more eight times in their last 11 games, including the last four in a row against New Orleans (30), Indianapolis (35), Philadelphia (30) and Washington (30). Sure, three of those teams are quarterbacked by Pro Bowlers Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Michael Vick. But the other squad was piloted by Rex Grossman (who threw FOUR touchdown passes in last week’s 33-30 loss at Dallas).
As for Arizona’s defense, it definitely has played better lately, giving up 19, 13 and 19 points the last three weeks. But that was against the Rams, Broncos and Panthers. Prior to that, Arizona surrendered 38 points to the Bucs, 27 to the Vikings, 36 to the Seahawks and 31 to the Chiefs. Now the Cardinals’ D faces a Cowboys O that since Wade Phillips was fired has generated 33, 35, 27, 38, 27 and 33 points!
Not only has Dallas topped the total in 11 straight games, but it is also on “over” tears of 4-0 on the road, 6-0 as a favorite, 4-0 against teams with a losing record and 16-5 when laying 3½ to 10 points. Meanwhile, Arizona has topped the total in 48 of its last 70 games as an underdog, 10 of 14 as a home pup, five of six when catching between 3½ and 10 points at home, six of eight overall at home, and eight of 11 after a SU loss.
Bottom line: I know because the Cowboys have hurdled the total in 11 straight games that we’re dealing with an inflated number here. That said, Dallas last nine contests have eclipsed 50 combined points, including four straight with 57, 73, 57 and 63 points. So even with Arizona slumping offensively, this still smells like a 31-24 type of game.
DAVID BANKS
CARDINALS
OVER 45
BOSTON CELTICS
MIAMI HEAT
BAYLOR
WASHINGTON ST.
Andy Fanelli
Orlando
LA Lakers
Parlay Arizona & Over
Chuck O'Brien
Arizona
Anthony Redd
Magic
Nuggets
Florida Int
Don Wallace Sports
3* New York -1.5
3* Orlando -2
3* Los Angeles -2.5
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Dallas
4 Units Baylor
3 Units New York Knicks
Sixth Sense
Opinion
Dallas -7 ARIZONA 45.5
Dallas jumped out to a huge lead over Washington and then had to hang on to a 33-30 victory. They out rushed Washington 4.3ypr to 3.7ypr and out passed them 7.7yps to 6.0yps. Overall, they out gained the Redskins 6.2yppl to 5.4yppl. Arizona was beaten worse than the final 19-12 score at Carolina indicates. They allowed 177 yards rushing and lost the rushing battle, 3.9ypr to 2.5ypr. They allowed a sorry Carolina passing team to average 6.0yps, while gaining just 4.9yps themselves. Overall, they were out gained 4.6yppl to 4.1yppl but they also threw the ball 15 more times and ran the ball 28 fewer times than Carolina.
Dallas averages 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl. Arizona averages 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.8yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Dallas by four points and predict about 53 points. Since Jason Garrett took over as head coach the Cowboys have won four of six and covered in five of those games. They’ve also scored at least 27 points in each of those games, which many were against defenses much better than this Arizona squad. At the same time they have allowed at least 19 points in each of those games and at least 30 in each of the last four games. I would like the over in this game if I were convinced Arizona could do their share of the scoring but with John Skelton at quarterback I am not so sure about that. Arizona scored 43 at home against Denver a few weeks ago but a lot of that was more because of the defense, not the offense. Other than that game, they haven’t topped 18 points in their last six games. Dallas should get their points and then it comes down if Arizona can get their points. DALLAS 30 ARIZONA 23
MTi Sports
3* Bulls
3* Magic
3* Lakers
Hot Shots
4* Boston Under
4* Lakers
3* Bulls
3* Okl City
3* Utah U
Chris Jordan
600* Dallas (1st half)