DAVID MALINSKY
4* SAN JOSE STATE over LOUISIANA TECH
One of the classier coaches in college football will close a solid career in this game, and one of the biggest SR classes will also be finishing their college careers. That is a setting for an excellent effort from the underdog, yet the markets want no part of Dick Tomey and his Spartans here; in fact they have been running this line up all week. Now it is in one of the pointspread ranges this is not supposed to happen, and it is plenty for us to get involved.The base pointspread concept behind this one is deceptively simple, but works year in and year out – in the final three games of the regular season, a team should never be favored by more than their scoring averaging when facing a conference opponent. It tells us that the marketplace is trying to use some side factors to make a team overcome a major weakness, and the fact that it is a league game insures that there is some integrity to the process. So what do we have here? Louisiana Tech is averaging 22.7 ppg through 10 lined games. The Bulldogs simply do not bring a lot of punch to the table, especially a passing attack that has been depleted at the WR spots since the start of the season, and rates 91th nationally in yards.But here is where it gets better – that struggling passing game is not the team’s biggest weakness. The defense has also faced major injury issues, and rates 96th against the Run, and 117th in Tackles for Loss. It does not get much better in the 12th game as some overworked bodies have to gut out four more quarters, especially for a LB crops that will only dress four players this week. If you can not score quickly on offense, and can not stop the opposition from running the ball and working clock, a blowout win is not easy to come by. And the mindset is not there either, with only two W.A.C. wins by more than this spread in Derek Dooley’s three seasons as head coach.Will San Jose bring it for Tomey? We will let veteran DT Liam Smith, one of 26 Spartans SR’s playing their last game, set the tone - "We really want to send him out with a victory. We all care about him so much. We want to rally together and do something special." Last week’s win over New Mexico State may have been ugly, but it brings some enthusiasm and a little momentum, and it is enough for them to keep this well under the high spread.
4* WASHINGTON over CALIFORNIA
This is basically a bowl game for a much-improved Washington team that will bring both physical freshness and confidence to the table. This is a game in between “bowl” games for an over-rated California team that will compete to win, but not bring the kind of spark needed to get a margin. That means a prime upset opportunity for the Huskies, and the full TD being offered creates excellent value in a game that should go to the final possession.Washington has made some significant strides in Steve Sarkisian’s first season, and having a healthy Jake Locker was a luxury that was not there in 2008, which made the results worse than the program really was. Now in what may be Locker’s final college game they can let loose with every once of energy that they have, and that should be a significant stock – they had a bye two weeks ago, and merely coasted in that 30-0 whipping of Washington State last Saturday. They have gone 3-1 SU in Pac 10 play on this field, and note that despite losing to L.S.U. and Oregon on the scoreboard, they won those games by 11 first downs and 116 yards in that stat columns, but fell victim to a -3 turnover differential over those eight quarters, with two of the TO’s being returned directly for scores. At no time were they ever physically out-played in front of the home fans this autumn.As we have noted a couple of times this season, the Bears never deserved those lofty ratings back in August, and have not really been a disappointment – this is who they are. Yet their reputation never got lowered to the proper power rating level in the eyes of the marketplace, which explains why a team could be -16 on the scoreboard, and -205 in total offense, in Pac 10 play and still be this class of road favorite. They do not bring anything special physically that would call for domination in this matchup, and we do not believe the mental makeup will be there either – that win at Stanford in their last outing was a bowl-type atmosphere, and they will not have much turnaround time before playing their chosen bowl game, which could be in as early as three weeks. From all reports a win here does not improve their positioning for that next game in any way, so do not be surprised to see a flat effort that leaves them vulnerable for what really should not be considered an “upset”.
4* HOUSTON/EAST CAROLINA Under
With this Total now having reached the 70 plateau, they clearly do not have both sides of this equation balanced properly. And that means outstanding value in a game that will not flow anywhere near the all-out track meet that is being called for.Yes, Houston is involved. But note that at this plateau even the Cougars would only be 5-6 to the Over in lined games. Now consider the other side. East Carolina did not play in a game that got within a TD of this Total all season, and in 26 games the L2 years the Pirates have seen a scoreboard top 70 one time. But even that one deserves an * - a game that fell 74 vs. U.T.E.P. LY was sitting on 60 in the final minute, with late scores on a TD pass with 0:51 remaining, and then an onside kickoff return on the next play. There has not been a legit game over those two seasons for Skip Holtz team that has approached this count.Now Holtz will be going out of his way to slow the tempo, and the pieces are in place to do that. On their own turf the Pirates will adapt a run-first philosophy that can command the ball for long stretches against a pliable Houston defensive interior, and while stopping the Cougars is one of the toughest challenges in college football this season, East Carolina brings a veteran defense that has eight SR starters and two JR’s. That means the savvy to play contain, not making the kind of mental mistakes that lead to big plays, and note that is has been a big part of why they are in this game in the first place – they rate 4th nationally in goal line defense.Also note that when the Conference championship is on the line it is all about winning the game, which means a higher level of conservatism in the second half than usual. It brings us plenty of breathing room in this favorable line range.
4* NEW ENGLAND over MIAMI
Let’s begin our N.F.L. week by locking in on this one, with 3’s available in the market as of Thursday afternoon. Those lines, of course, came when a major rumor was circulated this morning that Tom Brady was “questionable” for New England, and a game that had been as high as -6 began crashing. We will follow up later with more details on this game, with those “Bill Belichick off of a loss” numbers coming into play again, but for now here is the report filed by New England for the Thursday practice, which was more than 90 minutes after the mark surge took place –DID NOT PARTICIPATE: RB Fred Taylor (ankle) S Bret Lockett (groin).LIMITED PARTICIPATION: WR Sam Aiken (hip) LB Eric Alexander (groin) TE Chris Baker (shoulder) LB Tully Banta-Cain (shoulder) NT Ron Brace (ankle) WR Julian Edelman (forearm) DE Jarvis Green (knee) OT Nick Kaczur (ankle) C Dan Koppen (knee) OT Matt Light (knee) RB Sammy Morris (knee) G Stephen Neal (ankle) LB Rob Ninkovich (knee) OT Sebastian Vollmer (head) DE Ty Warren (ankle) LB Pierre Woods (groin).FULL PARTICIPATION: QB Tom Brady (shoulder) CB Shawn Springs (knee).We do not believe that we can be hurt by locking in now, and will go ahead with a full 4* play.ADDED INFO –OK, now the markets have had their fun and Brady’s status has is becoming well known, yet the books are still slow to trickle the game back up. That leaves outstanding value for the traditional handicap to get into play. In this week’s edition of ”Verities & Balderdash” we note those awful problems the Dolphins are having in the fourth quarter of games, allowing a league high in points. It happens when you have an inexperienced QB and one of the weakest sets of WR’s in the league, which means trouble making things happen, and also when the defense is so young at those key CB positions. Only the Lions, Raiders and Browns have a wider gap between Yards Per Pass and Yards Per Pass Allowed, and with the Patriots now seeing the Wildcat for the fourth time in the last two seasons it will be on that Miami passing attack to make things happen. That is far more than Chad Henne can shoulder right now, especially since the defense will one again be hard-pressed to make stops – the Patriots rolled to 432 yards in that earlier home win, with Randy Moss and Wes Welker running free to the tune of 15 catches for 231. As for Belichick off of a loss here are the numbers – in his last 21 appearances in the role the Patriots are a sparkling 20-1 SU and 18-3 ATS, beating the spread by 271 points in the process. That is a significant margin of 12.9 per game over what the oddsmakers are projecting. The base premise fits awfully well here, especially since a loss would reduce their division lead to a single game, and they take care of business against a young team that can be exploited by the experience and savvy that they bring to the table.
Al DeMarco
10 Dime - Cincinnati
I lost with a free pick on Cincinnati last week at home against Illinois, but then again, the reason I used the Bearcats as a freebie - a selection I didn't bet on personally - was because I wasn't sure whether they'd take that game seriously with this one at Pittsburgh on the horizon with a BCS bowl berth going to the victor. And, that's exactly what happened as Cincy jumped to the early double-digit lead and toyed with the Illini throughout, coasting to the 49-36 win but failing to get the cover as the 22-point home chalk.
If you analyze the Cincinnati-Illinois game from just the "who covered" perspective, you missed the bigger point of that contest, which was judging the effectiveness of quarterback Tony Pike, who was making his first start since October 15. In the team's previous game against West Virginia, he had attempted four passes and thrown two scoring strikes off the bench, raising his season total to 17 touchdown passes versus three interceptions. Well, against Illinois, I'd say he passed - literally and figuratively - with flying colors, throwing six more TD passes as Cincinnati's offense, averaging 38 points and 478 yards per game, continued to hum.
Why Cincy was winning its tune-up for this showdown, Pitt was tackling West Virginia in its annual Backyard Brawl, coming up on the short-end of a 19-16 final as the Mountaineers kicked a game-winning 43-yard field goal as time expired. The Panthers really gave that game away, missing two field goals while watching quarterback Bill Stull, who has enjoyed a good senior season, return to his interception-prone ways, as he was picked off twice.
Is Pitt the better defensive team in this match-up? No question about that. And the Panthers can bring the heat with 43 sacks on the season. But Pike negates that pressure with a quick release and an outstanding corps of receivers.
Pittsburgh can run the ball with freshman Dion Lewis (131 yards per game average, 5.8 ypc), but the Bearcats actually got their own running game going in the season's final three games, making Pike all the more lethal.
The bottom line in this game is that Pitt doesn't have the offensive firepower to match points with Cincinnati. And while the Bearcats went on the road earlier this year in a big step-up game and delivered with a win at Oregon State, I look at Pitt and see a team that barely hung on against Notre Dame's passing attack, failed to get the job done against an average West Virginia squad, and needed a huge comeback and last-minute field goal to escape at home against another average Big East foe in Connecticut. Those weren't exactly "big game" performances from a Pitt team whose coach, Dave Wannstedt, has never impressed me either when the spotlight has shone brightly.
I think this will be one of the more entertaining, high-scoring games of the day with Cincinnati holding on to pull out the 37-31 win.
Cowtown Sports
3* Texas
DR BOB
2 Star Selection
**Nebraska 16 Texas (-14.5) 24 (at Arlington)
Texas may be deserving of being in the National Championship Game if they win this game, but they are not deserving of being a 14 point favorite against the one of the best defensive teams in the nation in what should be a low scoring game. Nebraska has allowed just 4.2 yards per play this season (to teams that would combine to 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team and the Cornhuskers have allowed just 11 points per game. Texas Tech managed to score 31 points against the Huskers, but 7 of that was a defensive touchdown on a fumble return and the Red Raiders only averaged 4.5 yppl in that game, so that point total is misleading. The Cornhuskers also allowed just 4.3 yppl and 16 points on the road against a good Virginia Tech attack and held other good offensive teams Missouri and Kansas to 2.9 yppl and 12 points and 4.8 yppl and 17 points, respectively.
Texas is a good offensive team, but they are not as good as their 43 points per game averaged suggests. The Longhorns have averaged a good, but not great 6.0 yppl this season, but quarterback Colt McCoy keeps drives alive with his clutch 3rd down passing, so they're actually better offensively than the 6.0 yppl number suggests. However, the Longhorns really struggled to move the ball against good defensive teams this season and they gained just 270 total yards at 3.5 yppl against an Oklahoma defense that is on par with Nebraska's dominating stop unit. For the season Texas faced 4 good defensive teams in Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State and the Longhorns averaged a modest 4.6 yppl in those 4 games, which is average considering that those 4 teams would combine to allow 4.6 yppl to an average offensive team. The Texas attack rated at 0.7 yppl better than average overall for the season, but all they abused bad defensive teams while rating at just average against the 4 good defensive teams that they faced while also averaging just 5.2 yppl against the mediocre defenses of Baylor and Colorado. Texas did average a 33 points in those 4 games against good defensive teams, but their offense only averaged 26 points, as the Horns scored on a punt return against Texas Tech, scored on a blocked punt against Missouri, and scored two non-offensive touchdowns against Oklahoma State. On the season Texas scored 11 non-offensive touchdowns, which is off the charts and is not something that is likely to continue in this game, especially considering that my special teams rating for Nebraska is actually better than my special teams rating for Texas. The Cornhuskers didn't allow any special teams touchdowns and allowed just one interception return TD and that 82 yard fumble return TD to Texas Tech when they didn't realize it was a lateral instead of a foward pass. In other words, I don't expect Texas to score their standard one non-offensive touchdown in this game. Nebraska's defense will pose a huge problem for Texas in this game and they're likely going to have to earn their points.
While the Texas offense is likely to struggle moving the ball in this game, the Cornhuskers will also have a tough time against a Texas defense that is actually 0.1 yppl better than Nebraska's dominating defense, as the Longhorns rate at 1.4 yppl better than average on defense (using only the stats when Texas' starters are playing). Nebraska is only 0.2 yppl better than average offensively with quarterback Zac Lee at the controls and my math model projects just 235 total yards at 4.2 yppl for the Huskers in this game. The Cornhuskers also faced 4 good defensive teams (Virginia Tech, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma) and they were 0.1 yppl worse than average in those teams when Lee was at quarterback (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 4.6 yppl to an average team). However, that's only 0.2 yppl worse than normal while the Texas offense was 0.7 yppl worse than their normal level when facing good defensive teams.
My math model favors Texas by just 10 points in this game and using a compensated points model with adjustments only favors the Longhorns by 12 points and that includes some of the luck they've had with non-offensive touchdowns this season. I'll call for a fair line of 11 points in this game and that doesn't even take into account how much worse the Texas offense has been, relatively, against good defensive teams. If 11 is the fair line then Nebraska has a profitable 57.7% chance of covering at +14 1/2 points (56.4% at +14 and 54.6% at +13 1/2) and I'll take Nebraska in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more
Mike Lineback
4* Atlanta Hawks/Dallas Mavericks UNDER 204.5
4* Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5 -125 (1/2 pt buy)
4* Alabama Crimson Tide +5.5
Mac Monster
25* Clemson PK
25* Alabama +5
25* Hawaii + 12.5
15* Boise St -47.5
15* Arizona + 7
15* Illinois -3
7* Ala/Fla Under 41.5
5* Nebraska + 13.5
5* La Tech -17
Triple Threat Sports
2.5* on U Conn (-) over South Florida
Bulls put a TON of attention and effort into last week's game against Miami and come up short. Now they have to travel to Storrs at night in December, with a 60% chance of snow and a gametime temp of 35 degrees that will only drop as the night goes on. A quick check shows that the Sunshine State Bulls are 2-11 SU and 3-8 ATS in anything close to "cold weather" conditions, and that is exactly what they are going to be facing here. Lay the points in this one.
Payne Sports
10 Units Alabama +5
5 Units Alabama ML
First lets start by saying this is the real national championship, and it should be a great game. We have an Alabama team that has went undefeated during the regular season for a 2nd straight year and a Tebow led team that just knows how to win and since giving his speech after the Ole Miss loss has not lost a game. It is one of the best speeches of all time, so will we see an undefeated season for the first time in Florida history as Tebow exits as a senior?? No I dont believe so... This is a tale of two teams both with the same goal just as last year and what will the outcome be? I believe it will a 26-20 type alabama win. Look back at last year and you will notice several things that dont add up unless you watched Tebow lead unbelievable drives in the 4th quarter for a win and a cover where Alabama played neck in neck the whole game as they alternated scoring most of the game with the gators scoring twice in the 4th for a 31-20 final
Total yards: 358 to 323 Florida
Rushing: 136 to 142 Florida
Passing: 187 to 216 Florida
Turnovers 1 to none Florida
This is close as it gets for any team as they were neck - neck in all categories.
Why go back to last year?? It is relevant as Florida has regressed somewhat, while Alabama has progressed. There are several factors that I take out of that game as they held Tebow to 17 rushes for only 57 yards and the kid had two unreal drives to get them therein the 4th quarter, so Alabama neutralized him for the most part.
Now to this year, Florida has regressed some as they dont have all the playmakers everywhere on the field as they did last year but still have Tebow, Cooper, Hernandez, and Rainey. They boast the number 12 total offensive team and number 6 rushing team in the country, while their defense is flat out nasty boasting the number 3 overall defense, number 1 against the pass, and number 8 against the run. They have a big void possibly now to fill with Dunlap and could lead to a long day, as he is top notch NFL draft pick and defensive player of the game last year in the NC game.
Alabama on the other hand, has added more playmakers and average 410 yards on offense and boast the number 13 rushing attack, which dropped after a dismal performance against Auburn, where Ingram sat most of the 4th quarter with a hip pointer. He leads the team with 1400 yards rushing, but lets be realistic could we still perform without Ingram if he happens to sit out. We have highlight reel Richardson who has been flat out good coming in as a number 2 back and has lived up to his hype. We also have Upchurch and Grant who could start for almost any team around the country. That really shows you the program Saban is building as running back is deep as any team in any country. McElroy has managed game after game and gets it done with 16 tds to 4 int. The difference in this game could possibly be Peek at tightend as he is very underrated. Remember also, Julio had a 100 game against the Gator defense last year and looks to show the country that he is for real. Alabama defense is the number 2 overall defense with them being number 5 against the pass and number 2 against the run.
Now to the outcome, as I gave a run down.... Alabama defense wants it more and is better overall and with the possible suspension of Dunlap could be detrimental to the Gators season. This has the making to be just as good as 99 Championship or the 08 Championship. These two teams are both winning programs and are flat out good. They both know how to win the big game. I see a defensive battle early, then I expect to see some fireworks late as McElroy will be the difference in this game. Yes, I said McElroy as he is ready for this game and will prove to his critics that he is as good as advertised. Remember one thing, Florida has allowed pressure in the back field all year long and that tells me ALabama will be able to get to him multiple times and I see Tebow making a few mistakes as something we never see him do. I look for Tiffin to be the difference as Alabama wins 26-20
9 Units East Carolina +3
Pointwise Phones
4* LOUISIANA TECH, WASHINGTON
3* PITTS, RUTGERS, ARIZONA
2* TEXAS, UCONN, BOISE ST
FRANK PATRON
MUST WIN 50000 UNIT PERSONAL SYSTEM LOCK
CLEMSON TIGERS (PK)
Maddux Sports
3 units on Rutgers -2
4 units on Alabama +5.5
3 units on Nebraska +14
ATS LOCK CLUB
6 Units Pittsburgh +2.5
5 Units Florida -5.5
5 Units Illinois -3
5 Units G Tech +1
Maximus Report
Best Bet of Day
Rutgers -2
BIG AL
5* Kentucky CBB
Jim Feist
4* Nebraska
5* Hawaii
Inner Circle UCONN
Platinum WASH.