Marc Lawrence
Alabama +5 vs Florida
A classic matchup in the toughest conference in the land finds top-ranked Florida hosting No. 3 Alabama for the SEC championship and a ticket to the BCS Championship game. Last year the shoe was on the other foot when the 12-0, No. 1 ranked, Tide met the Gators in this same game. Florida rallied late to pull out the win and advance to the BCS title game, en route to a national championship. While Florida has put up impressive numbers this season the fact of the matter is they have faced only ONE ranked team. On the other side, Alabama has squared off against FOUR ranked opponents in 2009. To carry matters further, the Gators averaged 42.1 PPG this season in games against sub .600 opposition. In games against .600 or great opponents, the Gators averaged 25.2 PPG. Florida head coach Urban Meyer has met with great success but a closer examination of his record draws this parallel: in games in which Meyer's teams have been favored by more than five points they are 68-5 SU and 43-27-3 ATS. In games in which Meyer's teams have been favored by five or less points they are only 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS. Meanwhile, Alabama coach is at his best when seeking revenge, where he is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS in his career when playing of a win as a favorite or dog of less than seven points when facing an opponent off a SU and ATS win - with eight SU wins as an underdog! Toss in the fact that defending national champions that are favored by less than seven points against avenging foes with a win percentage of .800 or more are 1-3-1 ATS si~nce 1989. The clincher is the fact that undefeated teams in Conference Championship games off a SU and ATS win are just 3-3 SU and 0-6 ATS when off a win of seven or more points. Grab the points as the Tide rolls into the BCS title game. We recommend a 4-unit play on Alabama.
BEN BURNS
10* Shocker GOY South Florida +7.5
10* Champ GOY Clemson +1
8* Rutgers -2.5 - Pitt +3 - ECU +3
Fairway Jay
Nebraska
Larry Ness
20* Big East Payoff (13-3, 81% CFB run s/Nov 20)
Brian Kelly is probably college football's "hottest commodity" among head coaches. He led the Bearcats to a 21-6 record in his first two seasons at Cincy, including its first BCS bowl last season, an Orange Bowl loss to Virginia Tech. However, Kelly has taken his team's success a step further in 2009, as the Bearcats are 11-0 for the first time in school history and their No. 5 ranking in the AP poll marks a school-best. Pitt may have been caught looking ahead to this game last weekend, as the Panthers lost 19-16 at West Va. However, the good news for Dave Wannstedt's team is a win here and the Panthers are the Big East champs and are headed to the school's first BCS Bowl since they went to the Fiesta Bowl at the end of the 2004 season (lost to Utah 35-7). Like Thursday's "Civil War" in which it was a winner take all for a Rose Bowl bid between Ore St and Oregon, the Pitt-Cincinnati season finale is essentially the first de facto championship game the Big East has had in its 18-year history. Cincy QB Tony Pike made his first start last weekend since returning from an arm injury and threw for 399 yards and six TDs in a 49-36 win over Illinois on Friday. However, one has to wonder if the Bearcats are not a more balance team with sophomore QB Zach Collaros at the controls, as Cincy ran just four times in the first three quarters against the Illini. One of the main reasons that Cincy's 11-0 mark is such a surprise in 2009 is because the team returned just one defensive starter this year. The Bearcats allowed just 103 points over their first eight games (12.9 PPG) but have allowed 102 points over their last three games (34.0 PPG). I believe the Bearcats are ripe for an upset. Cincy won 28-21 last year at Nippert Stadium, ending Pitt's seven-game winning streak in the series. Last year's game marked the first time these two schools had met when BOTH were ranked. This year's game holds even higher stakes. Pitt QB Stull had two INTs last week at Morgantown but he's made major strides this year, He completed 57.0 percent of his passes with nine TDs and 10 INTs last year but has completed 64.9 percent this year, with 19 TDs and just six INTs. RB Dion Lewis has set a new Big East freshman record with 1,446 yards rushing (5.8 YPC / 13 TDs) and Pitt's running game (183.8 YPG / 5.2 YPC) could easily exploit Cincy's suddenly suspect defense. The Bearcats have allowed 190.7 yards rushing and 442.7 total yards in their past three games. As for Pitt's D, it ranks 15th in scoring (17.7 PPG) and 25th in total yards (319.6 YPG), while leading the nation with 43 sacks. Kelly's name was linked with vacancies at Tennessee and Washington last year. Now, with Notre Dame firing Charlie Weis, speculation about Kelly coaching the Irish has run rampant. "It's not comfortable for me," Kelly said. "It's not comfortable for those that are involved in it, but it's the reality of it. The only thing I can control is the message every day, and the message to our football players is about how we can become champions and how we can win football games." Anyone really think he's NOT leaving Cincinnati? This is obviously the biggest game of the season for both schools. However, Pitt is playing at home, owns the better defense and has a real chance to control the game and clock with RB Lewis. No upset here, as Pitt wins.Big East Payoff 20* Pitt.
THE BOOOOJ
100* California Golden Bears
25* Dallas Mavericks
25* Cincinnati Bearcats
25* Memphis Tigers
20* Alabama Crimson Tide
15* South Florida Bulls
10* Nebraska Cornhuskers
ATS Lock Totals
5 Units Arizona Under 50
4 Units UCONN Over 50.5
ATS Lock CBB
7 Units Cal
6 Units St Bon
5 Units Detroit, Zaga
4 Units Mizzu
Anthony Redd
60 Dime - Houston
5 Dime - Cincinnati
5 Dime - Illinois
5 Dime - Florida International
Northcoast Totals
3* FAU/FIU Over
3* Cal/Wash Under
MustWinSports
5 DIME CINCINNATI
Scott Spreitzer
GOY - Florida
Vic Monte
1000* GOM California
Power Play Wins
Houston Cougars -2.5
Nelly's LTS
2* East Carolina
1* Hawaii
Trey Scott
*200 Pittsburgh +2
*200 Alabama +5
*200 Clemson -1
Street Rosenthal
*200 Rutgers -2
*200 Arizona +7
Stephen Nover
100-Dime CINCINNATI BEARCATS - Pittsburgh is a good team. But the Panthers aren't as strong a team as Cincinnati and Dave Wannstedt is not as good a coach as Brian Kelly is.
The Bearcats have averaged 39.4 points in running up an 11-0 record. Although they've already clinched a share of the Big East title, they need this game to stay in the running for one of the four BCS at-large bids.
The Panthers are off a heartbreaking road loss to Virginia Tech, losing on the final play, 19-16. Pittsburgh quarterback Bill Stull is not in the class of Cincinnati quarterback Tony Pike, who is a top pro prospect. Pike missed three games but still passed for 2,048 yards with a 23-to-three touchdown to interception ratio.
Cincinnati beat Illinois, 49-36, last Friday but didn't cover as a big favorite. It was a flat spot for the Bearcats, though, facing a non-conference foe after Big East victories versus Connecticut and West Virginia.
Only once has Cincinnati scored less than 28 points. Pitt has a solid defense and excellent pass rush. The Bearcats, though, have allowed the third-fewest sacks in the nation (nine) and have committed the fewest turnovers in the country (six). They are a team that doesn't beat themselves either on the field or in the coaching department. The same can't be said for Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati is 16-7-1 (69 percent) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 17-35 (32 percent) ATS following a loss and 1-9 ATS in its next game when scoring less than 20 points.
20-Dime FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - These are two disappointing Sun Belt Conference teams, neither of whom plays defense. But this game means something to them. It's called the Shula Bowl.
Look for Florida International to be the more rested team and have the stronger motivation.
The Panthers were idle last week. The week off has restored their star wide receiver Ty Hilton back into top shape.
Florida Atlantic had a tough time disapatching Western Kentucky last week as nearly a two-touchdown favorite. The Owls haven't had a bye in nine weeks.
Revenge can be overrated. But in this case, revenge is a huge motivating factor for Florida International. The Panthers blew a 50-36 lead with 2:08 left last year and ended up losing to the Owls in overtime, 57-50. They've been pointing to this matchup
Dave Malinksy
4* MISSISSIPPI over SOUTHERN MISS
There will be a much different Ole Miss team on the floor than the one that lost to Southern Miss LY, when Chris Warren, Eniel Ploynice and Trevor Gaskins could only sit and watch because of injuries. This will also be a much different Golden Eagle squad than the one that got that win. And it all lays out for a decisive payback win from an under-rated team, and a coach that is ideal to lay this pointspread range with, since he insists on 40 minutes of hard play every game.That coach is Andy Kennedy, who is 13-7 ATS laying double figures since taking over the Rebel program. This is not the day for that pattern to change. With legitimate talent all through his deep rotation (nine players are averaging at least 11 minutes per game), Kennedy can stay on the gas with a variety of combinations. The chance for Terrico White and Chris Warren to play together is producing just what they had hoped, with scoring averages of 17.3 and 17.1, and how nice is it to have contributors like Murphy Holloway’s 13.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, and Polynice’s 9.0 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists, coming from players that do not start? This is also a team more than ready to step up to this challenge, having faced tough competition at San Juan last weekend, then also getting an easy road win at Arkansas State after returning to the mainland. With nothing on deck until soft touch McNeese State next Saturday, there is nothing in the way of a revenge rout in this one.Southern Miss is certainly not in the way. Here is how Larry Eustachy previews a campaign in which he only has three returnees to his playing rotation ”The season will be over too quick, but the positive is we’ll only lose a couple guys and not real key guys.” For Eustachy it is all about trying to get the pieces to fit together, and the schedule has not helped the process – while Ole Miss was playing four lined games since Thanksgiving, all the Golden Eagles have done in the last 11 days was have a home walkover vs. Spring Hill. Having a pair of 6-0 G’s in Angelo Johnson and R. L. Horton in the starting lineup means defensive problems against those explosive Rebel guards, and we would not be surprised if there were not several crescendo runs by the home team to break this wide open.
4* ORLANDO over GOLDEN STATE
With so few pieces to work with, there are some nights that it just can not happen for these Warriors, who have already lost eight games by 13 points or more. This is one of those nights. The biggest advantage that a weak team can have is for the opposiition to come in flat and not take them seriously, and that is not going to be the case in this one.Otlando will be as fresh as any Golden State opponent since the opening night of the season. The Warriors are only played for the second time in six days, the previous game being an easy coast vs. the Knicks, and they have had three full days to prepare for the particular antics that they will face. There is also no look-ahead, with nothing up until a game against the Clippers on Tuesday. And for some of the Magic there is even an added level of focus, with Michael Pietrus and Matt Barnes having played for the Warriors not too long ago, and Stan Van Gundy also having a “homecoming”, after growing up 20 miles from here in Martinez (his take - "I still enjoy going because it's one of the very few places I actually see friends and things like that. So, I always see people I know, and that's good. When I first went back there as an assistant coach with the Heat walking into the Coliseum was huge for me. It was big.")With the right energy and focus, Orlando can fully exploit monster mismatches in terms of rebounding (#6 vs. #30) and defense (#6 vs. #28), and now that Rashard Lewis is fully back in form, bringing Barnes, Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson and Martin Gortat off the bench makes the Magic one of the deepest teams in the league in terms of front-court reserves. Who is the weakest in that regard? Golden State, of course. So a fresh Orlando team can run, have fun, and attack the basket without fear to get a plethora of easy scoring opportunities. The Warriors lack the depth to counter, and eventually the will fades
4* GREEN BAY over BALTIMORE
We know where we are going to be on Monday night, and because the markets are showing signs of aligning the same way we will pull the trigger now – the 3’s that are available are going to be harder to find as we get closer to kickoff.The Packers have been significantly better than the Ravens across the board, and in fact have been one of the N.F.L.’s best teams when we go through the base categories – they lead the opposition by a commanding 6:48 per game in time of possession, off of advantages of 49 first downs and 1,105 yards. They get 1.83 yards per pass more than they allow, and the rushing is 4.3 vs. 3.6. But they have not been able to show better than that 7-4 in the W/L column because of one significant weakness, the inability to protect Aaron Rodgers early in the season. Through those 11 games they have allowed an alarming 44 sacks. But as the OL developed some chemistry, and the playbook was tweaked to work around the protection issues, there are signs of real improvement, with no sacks allowed the last two games. And when Rodgers is not being sacked this passing attack brings tremendous abilities to attack down the field – he has had a passer rating of at least 108.0 in seven of the last nine games, and three different Green Bay receivers have are averaging better than 15.0 per catch with more than 20 receptions.The passing game presents a major headache for a Baltimore secondary that has struggled all season, and in the first road game since losing Fabian Washington they are even more vulnerable. To make matters worse they can not rely on the pass rush to pick up much of the slack with Terrell Suggs, who is expected to miss his third straight game, and they have not recorded a sack since he went down. And while it does look like Ed Reed will be able to go, Reed missed two days of practice this week, and is not going to be 100 percent.Do not be surprised to see a weary Baltimore team here off of those exhausting outings against the Colts and Steelers the past two weeks, while the Packers not only have the advantage of extra preparation time, but they were coasting in each of their last two outings (remember that the 30-24 win over San Francisco was at 30-10 in the fourth quarter). The edge in freshness brings an aggressive approach that can put the Raven pass defense on its heels, and leads to a convincing win
Jim Feist
Conf Champ GOY BAMA
Northcoast
4* Az
3* Pitt
3* Clem
Totals
3* Fla Atl Over
3* Cal Under
Seabass
50* Kentucky -3
50* Depaul +16.5
KikiSports
GOM Alabama Under
Howard Eskin
East Carolina
Hawaii
Ethan Law
2% Clemson -1
2% Washington +7
Manhattan Syndicate Play
East Carolina +3
Chris James Sports
3* Rutgers -2.5
2* Cincinnati -2.5
2* Florida -5
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
7* Ottawa +110
7* Edm/Dallas Over 5.5
5* Pitt -137
5* TB -111
7* DESTROYER KENTUCKY-3
Lenny Del Genio
East Carolina
Rainman
10* La Tech
5* Florida
3* Texas
1* East Carolina
Savannah Sports
5* Cincinnati -2.5
Eric Degarde
3* Chicago Under 207
Mike Neri
3* Kentucky -3.5
4* Nebraska +14
3* LA TECH -23.5
2* Cincinnati -1.5