SPORTS UNLIMITED
10* Pittsburgh +2.5
Lenny Del Genio
East Carolina +3
Unlike the other Conference Championship Games we will see on Saturday, East Carolina will enjoy a homefield advantage in the Conference USA Title Game. This home underdog has the better defense, which will be the decided edge in this game. Everyone falls in love with the Houston offense when they see the 50+ and 70+ point efforts against the likes of Memphis and Rice, but those are two of the absolute sorriest teams in the nation. Remember that the Cougars, for all their fanfare, needed help just to reach the Conference Title Game. Both of their losses this season, to UTEP and Central Florida, came on the road. The defense has surrendered 35 points or more five times this season. The Pirates offense will take advantage. Note that three of their four losses came against BCS schools. As alluded to earlier, the Houston defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 445.2 yards per game. They really struggle against the run where they allow 218.2 YPG. The Cougars are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of a touchdown or less and 0-6 ATS on the road off BB conference wins. Take East Carolina.
Evan Altemus
Pittsburgh +2
This game is a bad match-up for Cincinnati. Their defense has actually played very badly lately but has been shielded by an explosive offense. However, now the team has to travel away from Cincinnati and play a Pittsburgh team that has the best defense they have faced all season. The Panthers have a very strong defense with top NFL prospects on the defensive line. The Bearcats haven’t had to go up against a physical defense like the Panthers have that will check their receivers at the snap. Cincinnati has also faced their recent toughest teams at home, such as Connecticut, West Virginia, and Illinois. Pittsburgh will also have plenty of motivation in this game, as they will get to go to a BCS bowl and win the Big East title with a win. Oddsmakers agree with me as well, since the line opened at Pittsburgh -1.5 and dipped to +2 because of the betting public. Cincinnati also has to deal with distractions of head coach Brian Kelly being the main candidate of Notre Dame. They are also getting asked questions about a BCS bowl game. All of these distractions and going on the road against a tough defensive team will lead to Pittsburgh getting the win.
3 UNIT SELECTION PITTSBURGH.
SEABASS
300 - Washington (buy to 7)
300 - Clemson
200 - Texas
100 - S fla
100 Houston
50 Bama
50 USC Under
50 Kentucky
50 Depaul
Pitt Steam
Great Lakes Sports
4* Gonzaga-6.5
3* Ill St.-14
3* Pepperdine -1.5
4* Phoe -11.5
3* Utah -7.5
3* Dallas -3.5
4* Washington +6.5
KBHoops
5* Alabama +5 *POD*
5* Rutgers -1.5
5* Cincinnati -1.5
PittBull
20 units Houston -2
15 units Texas -14
20 units Toronto Raptors +6
Executive
300% W Va
300% USC
PPP
4% W Virg
3% Cinn
3% S Fla
igz1 sports
3* Arizona +7
Executive
400 Kansas St
300 Rd Island
John Ryan
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on East Carolina as they take on Houston set to start at 12:00 EST. This is the Conference USA Championship game. AiS shows an 85% probability that ECU will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Houston need help getting here from SMU and now they have to play on the road at the defending conference champs home field. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-9 against the MONEY LINE for 76% success and made 243 units since 2004. Play on a home team versus the money line off 2 straight wins against conference rivals with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Here is a 2nd money line system hitting 72% winners since 1999 making 43.2 units. Play against a road team versus the money line off a home win against a conference rival facing an opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. AiS shows an 88% probability that ECU will score 28 or more points. Note that Houston is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. ECU is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Houston is also 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons; s 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Houston defense is among the nation's worst in giving up 445.2 yards and it has also allowed 28.0 points per game. The Cougars have especially struggled against the run (218.2 ypg) and that gives East Carolina senior Dominique Lindsay q fantastic opportunity to dominate in Saturday's game. Remember, some guy names Chris Johnson, who now plays for the Tennessee Titans? Well, he was at ECU in 2007 so the coaches know the complete running game. Take ECU.
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they host Cincinnati set to start at Noon EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that Pitt will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 62% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 20-6 against the money line making 16.8 units since 1992. The average play has been a +114 dog which matches the line for this game. Play on a home team versus the money line off a loss against a conference rival and in a game involving two top-level teams sporting win percentages of >= 80%. Pitt has a 90% probability of gaining 7.5 to 8 net passing yards in this game. Cincinnati is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Pitt’s running game will dominate the Bearcats defensive front. This in turn will set-up high percentage pass opportunities in the spread and play action pass sets. Take Pittsburgh.
Heisman Trophy Club
20* Louisiana Tech
10* Alabama
10* Pittsburgh
ASA
5* Texas
3* Arizona
Wayne Root
3* Utah State (-4½) over St Marys CA
Coach K
3* Cal -6.5
3* Pitt +3 (buy 1/2)
3* ECU +3
3* La Tech -16.5 and Rutgers +5 (7pt teaser)
3* Clemson +8 and Arizona +14 (7pt teaser)
2* Rutgers -2
2* FIU -1.5
2* Nebraska/Texas under 47
2* ECU +9 and Pitt +8 (7pt teaser)
California Sports
3* Hofstra
Carolina Sports
4* Alabama
3* Arizona
Ben Burns
7* FLYERS
DAVID MALINSKY
4* MISSOURI over OREGON
We shifted gears with Mike Anderson and Missouri earlier this week – after the Tigers had been one of our best single-season meal tickets ever LY it was a 6* ticket with Vanderbilt on Wednesday night, when the Commodore inside game was too much for the Tigers around the basket. But we came away impressed once again with the Missouri chemistry and tenacity in the back-court – despite losing the battle of the boards 45-24, and allowing Vandy to shoot 24-41 on two-point attempts, they were still hanging around to the very end, even going on a late 11-0 run when they appeared on the verge of being blown out. And that means time get back on the Tigers here in what has become a most dynamic setting.Anderson and the Tigers are 33-0 on this court in non-conference games, winning by an average of 25.8 points, and while the reality of that is much less than those numbers, largely because of the weak schedule, it says a lot about the confidence level that they bring. That intense trapping and pressing style for the full 40 minutes becomes an intimidating factor in front of the home crowd, and as we noted so often LY it is not just frenetic energy – they play with a real sense of purpose. Even in losing at Vanderbilt that was most evident, with a solid ratio of 16 assists vs. 12 turnovers, while the Commodores were forced into 24 turnovers, and dished out only 13 assists. Now a young Oregon team brings only two upperclassmen in the playing rotation, one being SR Tajuan Porter, who sat out the last game with a sprained ankle and may not be 100 percent, and they are subject to all of the mistakes of youth in this atmosphere.Ernie Kent has some depth and quickness, and because of that has his team running and pressing as well, but they Ducks are a long way from developing, and in reality just play into Missouri’s hands here, especially without Joevan Catron and Matt Humphrey being available. Their only road game was an 88-81 loss at Portland in which the defense was exploited, and they were dumped 68-55 at home vs. Montana. Now they leave the state of the first time, and they get taken apart in the open court as the holes in their presses get exposed (from Kent - ”The difference being we have just become a pressing team. They have been a pressing team. … It’s more ingrained in their mentality to press and run and get after people. We’re still learning and working our way through some things.”) by the precision the Tigers bring to the table. But do not look for Kent to back off – this is a developmental game for his team, which makes the scoreboard only a secondary consideration. That is a break for the coach, because it is going to be an ugly scoreboard
RAS
The Citadel (-5.5) 1.00 UNIT
Towson (-1) 1.00 UNIT
NC-Wilmington (+1.5) 1.00 UNIT
Cal Poly (+1.5) 1.50 UNIT
Executive
300 Gonzaga