OC Dooley
2 Units Northwestern +9
Northwestern has not won a postseason game since their first-ever appearance way back in the 1949 Rose Bowl. Dating back to the 1996 campaign the Wildcats are 0-for-7, but they are getting much closer to finally getting over the hump as the most recent pair of defeats were OVERTIME affairs. We are a little more than one week away from the National Championship where Auburn will be participating. I bring up the Tigers because that just happened to be the team that Northwestern nearly defeated last New Year’s morning in what was a thrilling Outback Bowl. There are plenty of “similarities” between Northwestern and Texas Tech which to me makes TAKING the generous points the way to go. Not only do both teams enter this Ticket City Bowl with identical overall records (7-5), both ran the table this campaign (4-0) up against “non” conference opposition. Of course the oddsmakers had no choice but to cast Texas Tech as a prohibitive favorite since this game (Dallas-based Cotton Bowl) is being played in the home-state of the Red Raiders who will have plenty of fan support. In addition Northwestern is operating with a true redshirt freshman quarterback who was pressed into service when the #1 option suffered a season-ending injury. But the fact of the matter is that going into this campaign, very few programs based in the Big-10 conference have played better than in a two-year span than Northwestern (17-9 overall). In the past 7 years combined (going into this campaign) the Wildcats had the “sixth best” overall record in their conference which was better than Michigan State and just three victories shy of Penn State. A victory for Northwestern this afternoon would be the 35th for this particular senior class which would be the MOST for this program since the early 1900’s which gives you an idea how much talent is on the field. Freshman quarterback Evan Watkins has had 15 practices leading up to this Bowl game which gives him more of a comfort-zone so to speak. It is interesting to note that Northwestern has SEVEN different players on their roster that grew up in the state of Texas, which is where this particular Ticket City Bowl is being played. It is amazing that Texas Tech won their Bowl game a year ago in the midst of the Mike Leach saga where he was suddenly ousted as head coach. There is another coaching shuffle going on with the Red Raiders as just this past Sunday defensive-coordinator James Willis was asked to leave the program due to his interest of being interviewed elsewhere. Texas Tech is from the Big-12 conference which opens the door to an UNDEFEATED postseason angle from my database research. Teams from the Big 12 Conference who won their regular season finale by “8 or more” points in margin are a disastrous 0-7 ATS when cast as a favorite in a postseason Bowl game. That stunning statistic favors Northwestern in the initial New Years Day Bowl affair
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
4* Michigan
3* Alabama
2* Florida
2* Wisconsin
Dr Bob
2* TCU
OC Dooley
5 Units Northwestern / Texas Under
Executive
400 Penn St
300 TCU
300 Michigan
Great Lakes Sports
4* Alabama
3* Michigan
3* Wisconsin
4* Northern Iowa
3* Syracuse
3* Providence
4* Milwaukee
3* Memphis
Matt Fargo
9* Connecticut +17
The Big East has gotten a bad rap over the years for being a soft conference and while I agree that it is definitely below the other BCS conferences, I don’t think it is that far down from the Big XII this season for one team to be laying this many points. We already saw Syracuse defeat Kansas St. and while the disparity between Connecticut and Oklahoma may be bigger, it isn’t extreme. Big spreads in bowl games are rare, especially in a BCS Bowl, and this happens to be the biggest line of the postseason. The Connecticut offense was not very consistent this season but I think it can have some good success against the Sooners. Huskies All-American running back Jordan Todman and the offensive line should have success against a mediocre Oklahoma run defense, which is ranked 63rd in the nation, allowing 151.8 ypg. This will help set up play action and open up the passing game and Connecticut needs balance to keep this one close and they should have no issues attaining that. On the other side, Connecticut is ranked fifth in the nation with 19 interceptions and 16th in the nation in pass efficiency defense. And four of those interceptions became pick-sixes, which is a good way to overcome a middling offense. The scoring defense is ranked 23rd in the country and that is just strong enough to slow down Oklahoma and keep this game more competitive than what this line is telling us. The Huskies extend their 11-2 ATS mark as underdogs over the last two seasons. 9* Connecticut Huskies
The Duke's Sports
Penn State (+7) for 2 Units
The SEC has proven to be overrated going 0-3 in bowls thus far. Florida turned in a mediocre year yet laying a TD to a team that's 3-0 in the Outback Bowl. To further justify that this is an overlay, Florida has failed to cover in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record, and they're 0-4 ATS as a favorite in this price range. The Gators did not find the QB they wanted this year: John Brantley has thrown as many TDs as INTs and the Gators' offense has turned the ball over 6X over their last two games. The Penn State defense is respectable and should limit Florida's offensive production. On the other hand, the Penn State offense is surely no juggernaut but QB McGloin took over for Bolden in week 7 and did a pretty good job managing the offense. He'll have RB Royster and an offensive line that allowed just 11 sacks in 12 games to help further production today. We do understand that this is Coach Meyer's last game and his boys will give their all to send him out a winner; however, we don't believe the Gators will cover the inflated spread.
Northcoast
4* Alabama
3* Oklahoma
Kyle Hunter
Miss. St -3.5
Wisconsin +3
UConn/Oklahoma Over 54.5
Missouri St -13
PPP
5% Miss St
4% Northwestern
4% Michigan St
4% UConn
3% Penn St
3% TCU
Dave Cokin
Bowl GOY - Florida
Scott Spreitzer
Bowl GOY - TCU
The Horned Frogs enter the Rose Bowl on a 15-3 run against teams from BCS conferences. I'll get to the outstanding offense in a moment, but first want to mention the TCU defense, which according to NFL draft experts, has seven starters that will get drafted by NFL teams when their college careers come to an end. As a unit, they're simply the best in college football. The Horned Frogs allow just over 11 ppg and 215 total yards per game. They held seven teams to less than 10 points this season. And they have given up a grand total of 16 TDs in 12 games. TCU faced six bowl teams this season, winning all six, of course. They whipped Baylor, SMU, BYU, Air Force, Utah, and San Diego State by an average score of 40.3 to 14.3. Take away the 35 points scored by SDSU and that average drops to 10.2 ppg! Yes, Wisconsin has a lot of offensive weaponry and yes they exploded for 201 total points over their final three games of the season. But two of those games came against the horrible defenses of Indiana and Michigan, and the third came against a Northwestern team that was virtually without a QB. Wiscy only had three real "step up" games this season and they were nothing special in each. The Badgers beat Iowa 31-30 in a late come-from-behind victory. Wiscy was outgained by 29 yards in that one. The Badgers lost 34-24 at Michigan State, getting outgained by 155 yards. They did beat Ohio State 31-18 in a wire-to-wire job, and we will give them credit for that win. But the other two games showed that this team is vulnerable, especially on the defensive side in big games. TCU's offense has been tremendous. QB Andy Dalton owns 26 TD passes and just 6 picks. Six different players have double-digit receptions. You really can't focus on any one player or on any particular area of the field. The ground attack produces over 260 yards per game with 39 TDs. And they average a whopping 5.5 yards per carry as a team. The Badgers received a heap of praise for their final three blowout wins of the regular season. But as I mentioned, they weren't facing a murderer's row of opponents. This will be there stiffest test of the season and they'll be over-matched, as far as I'm concerned. The Badgers are just 2-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. And one thing we know about Wisconsin during the Bielema years, they do struggle against elite defenses. The Badgers are 1-9 ATS during his tenure when facing a defense that holds the opposition to 285 total yards or less. As I already mentioned earlier...TCU's defense is in "their own league," allowing just 215 TYPG! TCU checks in on a 7-1 ATS run as a fave of up to 3 points. Gary Patterson does an amazing job preparing his team week-by-week, during the season. With a month off to prep, I believe his team will know every single strength and weakness of the Wisconsin offense. One of my top plays this season featured TCU on the road over Utah. We won that contest when the Horned Frogs whipped the Utes by 40 points in Salt Lake. Another big win is in story on Saturday. I'm laying the points with TCU.
Jim Kruger
Northwestern
Michigan St
Derek Mancini
100 Dime TCU