Erin Rynning
Falcons
Bulls
Great Lakes Sports
Falcons
Baylor
San Diego State
Ohio U.
Illinois
Old Dominion
Bobcats
Pistons
Sports Unlimited
Ravens / Steelers Over
Falcons
Pistons
Ole Miss
Old Dom
Ben Burns
10* TOM Packers / Falcons Over
I'm playing on Green Bay and Atlanta to finish OVER the total. I had a big play on the 'under' when these teams faced each other on 11/28. It resulted in a relatively "easy winner," as the teams combined for only 37 points, a 20-17 Atlanta victory. Regular season results are often quite different from playoff results though and I expect the teams to score more on Saturday. We're also getting a far better line to work with. One of the big reasons that I played on the 'under' in the first meeting was that I felt the O/U line was far too high. That game had an O/U line of 48. This week's line was lower than that one to begin with and its come down considerably since its opener. That being the case, I now feel that the "value" lies squarely with the OVER. A closer look at the Week 12 matchup reveals that the final score could have been higher. The Packers, who managed only 14 points, despite gaining 418 total yards, certainly could have scored more. Had Rodgers not fumbled on the goal line in the second quarter, the outcome could have easily been much different. Either way, regular season meetings are often quite different than playoff ones. Looking at last week's results and we find that the Packers and Eagles combined for only 37 points. The same two teams combined for 47 during the regular season. Meanwhile, Seattle scored only 19 points against the Saints in the regular season and then proceeded to drop 41 on them in the playoffs. One last thing about the earlier meeting, note that both offenses really got going towards the end of the game, as 17 points were scored in the fourth quarter. Both offenses are led by a star quarterback and neither is likely to let his team lose without putting up a serious fight. Matt Ryan, who practically never loses at home, finished the season with a career-high 3,705 passing yards. He had 28 touchdowns passes and only nine interceptions. He's got a playoff start under his belt (30-24 loss in 2008) and should play at a high level. I had the Packers last week and noted that I'd personally take Rodgers over Vick in a playoff game. Rodgers (3,922 passing yards, 28 TD, 11 INT) did arguably outperform Vick. In his first two playoff starts, Rodgers now has seven touchdowns. That's an NFL record. Weather is a factor for many January games. However, with this game being played at the Georgia Dome, we don't have to worry about that. For the season, the Falcons averaged 26.7 points per game here. I've noted a few times this season, the the Packers have been a profitable 'under' team on the road. That was true. However, this is still a team capable of scoring. Note that the Packers, who averaged greater than 24 points per game this season (and greater than 27 ppg their final three reg. season games) have still seen the OVER go 5-3-1 the last few seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range. Even including the earlier meeting with the Packers, the OVER is still 9-1 the last 10 times that the Falcons played a game with a line in the 42.5 to 49 range. If we fine-tune that a bit, we find that the OVER is a perfect 4-0 the last four times that the Falcons played a home game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range. I expect those stats to improve here.
Ben Burns
10* GOY Bears
I'm playing on CHICAGO. While I successfully rode the Saints last year, I had the Seahawks in last weekend's upset win. I also had them when they beat the Rams the previous week, in order to even qualify for the playoffs. Therefore, I'm not shocked that they knocked off the defending champs and made it this far. Give the Hawks credit, they came to win and they played hard the entire way. I expect their "magical run" to hit a brick wall on Sunday afternoon though. As pointed out each of the last two weeks (and several times throughout the year) the Hawks are an entirely different team when they play at Seattle. They've got very passionate fans and that helps give them a strong homefield advantage. Additionally, being on the West Coast, they get to catch most teams after they traveled from a large distance. Last week, I noted that playing on the West Coast, on a short week" (Seatte/NO was played on Saturday) was going to be difficult for the Saints. This week, however, the Hawks are on the road. As noted, the road has not been kind to them. They were 2-6 SU/ATS away from Seattle this season. They're now an awful 7-17 ATS (5-19 SU) away from Seattle, the past few seasons. This week, while they have had an extra day's worth of rest (due to playing on Saturday last week) they're up against a very well-rested Chicago team AND they're playing an EARLY game in the Eastern Time Zone. Keep in mind that 1pm EST = 10am PST. Looking at the Hawks' last three road games and we find that they lost by scores of 38-15, 40-21 and 34-19. In fact, ALL six of their road losses came by double-digits. Their other three road losses came by scores of 31-14, 20-3 and 33-3. Those three were against some pretty mediocre (at best) competition too, as they came vs. Denver, St. Louis and Oakland - three teams which failed to make the playoffs. One of Seattle's road wins came at Arizona, one of the weaker teams in the league. The other came right here at Chicago, a 23-20 victory back on 10/17. While some may think that result gives Seattle an advantage, the Hawks know first hand that regular season success against an opponent doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot, during the playoffs. After all, Seattle was blown out by New Orleans during the regular season. Note that the Bears have won seven of their last 10, when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting, incl. 2-0 SU/ATS their last two in that situation this season. Even with the earlier win here and last week's upset, the Seahawks are still just 3-5 SU/ATS against teams with a winning record. They're now an awful 6-15-1 ATS (4-18 SU) their last 22 against winning teams. The Bears have quietly played very well down the stretch. They were 7-2 since the beginning of November. One loss came vs. the Patriots and the other loss came at Green Bay, when the Bears had clinched the division the Packers were in a "must win" spot. The Seahawks can already hang their heads high. No matter what happens here, they've over-achieved and will be heroes to most their home fans. On the other hand, anything less than victory will be considered a major disappointment in Chicago. I expect the Bears to deliver that victory for the home fans, doing so in convincing fashion.
8* Seahawks / Bears Under
I'm playing on Chicago and Seattle to finish UNDER the total. With the home fans cheering them on, the Seahawks managed to put up 41 points against the defending champs last week. That suited me just fine, as I had a play on Seattle. However, I don't expect the Seahawks to get even half that many here. For the season, Seattle averaged a mere 16.7 points per game away from Seattle. For the season, Chicago allowed only 17.9 points per game. While the Bears were involved in a few high-scoring games late in the season, their games still averaged less than 39 combined points. Last week's high-scoring game between Seattle and New Orleans has worked in our favor, as its one of the factors providing us with a generously high O/U line here. Note that its risen from its opener, providing additional value. Note that these teams met each of the last two regular seasons and those games each had O/U lines of 37.5. Note that Chicago has seen the UNDER go 7-3 its last 10 home games with an O/U line in the 38.5 to 42 range. Yes, this season's earlier meeting did finish above the total, a 23-20 Seattle victory. However, it wasn't like the teams put up huge yards. (They had 307 and 353, respectively.) The fact that the Seahawks won the earlier meeting is also significant. Lovie Smith's Bears have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the last 10 times that they were in the 'revenge' role. While the Bears had already clinched the division, the fact that they lost their reg. season finale (10-3 vs. GB) is also worth mentioning. That's because they've seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they were off a divisional loss. With this number having climbed and with the Bears' defense "rising to the occasion," I expect those stats to improve on Sunday afternoon. *8
10* Main Event Jets / Patriots Under
I'm playing on New England and New York to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Jets to go 'under' the total last week and I feel that this will prove to be an excellent spot to do so again. True, both regular season meetings did finish above the total. However, those games still averaged "only" 45 points; neither game had an O/U line this high. Yes, the Jets were a profitable 'over' team during the regular season. However, we saw what they did in the playoffs last week, a 17-16 victory over the Colts. Note that they ran the ball 38 times, which helped to chew up the clock. They've averaged 39.3 rushing attempts over their last three games. Naturally, in an effort to limit the amount of time Brady spends on the field, they'll be doing their best to establish the ground game once again. Yes, the Patriots were a profitable 'over' team this season - and everyone knows that they have a potent offense. Check out what the defense has done recently though. Over their last two games, the Pats allowed a mere 10 combined points. Belichick wasn't happy with the defense last in last season's playoff loss (vs. Baltimore) and I feel this unit has improved significantly since then. The fact that they held four of their last five opponents to seven points or less tends to support that. (Last season, the Pats gave up 34 points in their reg. season finale alone.) While they've had a dangerous offense for years, last year's loss notwithstanding, the Pats have been primarily an 'under' team in the postseason. The UNDER is 17-7-1 their last 25 playoff games. With a pair of excellent defenses and a generously high O/U line, I expect those stats to improve on Sunday afternoon.
Winner's Circle Sports
Wisc Green Bay *-6.5
Villinova -6
Colorado -5
NC state +7
Baylor +1
Five Star Sports
4* Atlanta - 1
3* Baltimore / Pittsburgh Over 37
4* Colorado - 4
4* Hofstra + 3
4* Air Force + 10
3* Missouri + 5
3* Northwestern + 9
3* Kansas State - 12 1/2
3* ST Josephs + 5 1/2
3* Florida Atlantic
SEABASS
200* Steam Teaser Packers & Over
100* Sacramento
100* San Jose Sharks
100* Ball St
100* NC State
100* Steelers
100* Teaser Steelers & Over
Dave Malinsky
6* NC State
4* Dayton
4* Georgia
Tim Trushel
20* NC State
Charlotte
S Miss
Bobby Valentino
Falcons
Stephen Nover
North Carolina State
Pittsburgh Steelers
Wake Forest
Karl Garrett
Falcons
Steelers
NC State
Michael Cannon
Packers
Fairway Jay
Steelers Under
Packers
Packers