NICK PARSONS
ATS Rout
Saints
BIG AL
100% Perfect
Saints
BEN BURNS
Playoff GOY
Saints
Teddy Covers
Baltimore
Steven Budin
50 DIME RELEASE
2-Team Teaser - Indianapolis & San Diego
Reduce the price you are laying with both favorites.
At the time of this release, Indy (-6') and San Diego (-7) were both home favorites. Using the traditional 6 points you receive in a two-team teaser, make the Colts and Chargers approximately -1 in their respective games against visiting Baltimore and New York.
Bob Valentino
30 DIME: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
NOTE: I do not envision this number going above 7, but in the off chance it does, you MUST buy the half-point with New Orleans and lay no more than -7! And if it drops to 6 1/2, buy the half point down to -6 (to guard against a 6-point New Orleans win overtime)
Tim Trushel
Colts
Howie Feiner
5,000 Dime GOY Vikes/Boys Under
Kelso
15 units Colts -6.5
10 units Cards +7
3 units Cards/Saints UNDER 57
3 units Ravens /Colts UNDER 44
Al DeMarco
15 Dime - Teaser
New Orleans and Indianapolis
Reduce the points you lay with both home favorites
Using the standard six points you get in a two-team teaser, and based on the current prices of New Orleans -7 and Indianapolis -6 1/2 to -7, you are essentially making both the Saints and Colts 1-point home favorites.
DOUBLE DRAGON
SAINTS / CARDS OVER 56.5
RAVENS +7 (-120)
VIKINGS -PK (-130)
JETS +7.5 (-125)
SIXTH SENSE
BEST BET
3% NEW ORLEANS -7
NEW ORLEANS -7 Arizona 57
Arizona played terrific last week in their win over GB. But, along with that terrific play was a + turnover margin. Without the advantage in the turnovers, I doubt Arizona would have won the game. I wasn’t sold on Arizona last week and I’m not sold on them this week. Much like last week against GB, NO runs the ball better and throws the ball much better than Arizona. While the NO defense isn’t great, especially since they had numerous injuries over the last half of the season, their rush defense is still better than Arizona. The pass defense ended up slightly worse than Arizona but with their secondary back, I think it’s fair to say their secondary is as good if not slightly better than Arizona. The Saints qualify in a couple of very strong playoff situations. One situation is 41-10 while the other playoff situation is a fundamental rushing situation, which is 57-23-3. Numbers favor NO by 8.5 points and that’s considering how poorly the Saints played late in the year. Those numbers also project about 57 points so this total is about right. Arizona had some solid wins at home this year but they haven’t been tested on the road against solid teams. The best team they played was SF and they were miserable in that game, losing 24-9. Meanwhile, the Saints defeated the Jets by 14 and NE by 21 at home this year. They did lose to the Cowboys but they were missing some key pieces on defense in that game. Arizona is 4-1 SU the last one plus years in the playoffs and 5-0 ATS. They are not an easy out but all of their wins were either at home or on a neutral field, with the exception of the Carolina win. But they easily won that turnover battle in the win over Carolina. If they win the turnover battle again, they will probably cover and may win SU but I doubt they win that again. Can’t ignore what a good GB offense did to their defense last week. Now, on the road, NO should have plenty of success. And, being on the road, Arizona’s offense figures to slow down a little. NEW ORLEANS 37 ARIZONA 20
INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 Baltimore 44
Baltimore jumped out to a huge lead on NE last week and never looked back. They won the turnover battle by two, rushed for 234 yards and only had to throw the ball 10 times for 34 yards. They also held NE to just 64 yards rushing and 132 yards passing. These two defenses are about equal but the Indianapolis offense is much better than Baltimore’s offense. Part of the reason I went against Baltimore last week was because I’m not convinced Joe Flacco can avoid the crucial turnover to keep his team in the game. He wasn’t tested last week after they jumped out to a 24-0 lead. He’ll have to do more this week. As I mentioned last week, Baltimore is now just 2-6 SU against playoff teams this year. Indianapolis qualifies in a playoff situation, which is 41-10. Baltimore qualifies in negative playoff situation, which is 42-17-4 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Indy by 5.5 points and predict about 46 points. Not quite enough value for me to make this a best bet and I worry a little if Baltimore gets their running game going and controls the clock. But, if they fall behind, it could be a long day. INDIANAPOLIS 30 BALTIMORE 17
Karl Garrett
30 DIMER - BALTIMORE RAVENS
Could the Colts blow this Ravens team out?
Possibly, but with the Colts having basically rested their personel the last 2 weeks of the regular season, and then having a week off, I don't think Peyton Manning is going to find his stride right away, and that means Baltimore will be able to bang at Indy with their running game.
McGahee and Rice have been beasts down the stretch, and if the Ravens can take adavantage of an Indianapolis defense that has been yielding over 4 yards per carry on the ground, this one stays close all the way.
Baltimore has lost 5 games this year, 4 of them by 6 points or less. That includes that 17-15 Week 11 heartbreaker when Flacco tossed a game-ending pick in the red zone late in the 4th quarter. It should also be noted that Peyton Manning threw a pair of interceptions in that game, and with Ed Reed back in the lineup, I give Baltimore's defense a chance at rattling Manning the way they rattled Tom Brady last week.
The Ravens have been able to win 3 of their 4 road playoff games since last year, and while they may not win this win, they certainly will be a tough out for the Colts this Saturday night.
Take the points.
10 DIMER - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Tricky line here, as the Cardinals can put the points on the board, so you would think getting a full TD is a gift with the dog, especially since the Saints crapped the bed at 0-3 both straight up, and against the spread to end the season.
BUT....Keep this in mind, the Cardinals defense was absolutely atrocious last week at home, what will it be like on a short week on the road this week? I figure the Saints offense will get humming again, especially at home where they were 6-0 before the Dallas game. The extra week off gives offensive whiz Sean Payton a little more time to design some wrinkles against a defense that couldn't stop anything last week on their home field.
Asking the Cards to go on the road and step up big in the Superdome is too much to ask, in my eyes.
I think the Saints regain their mid-season form in this one, and force Warner to make a few costly mistakes.
Lay the lumber
10 DIMER - VIRGINIA CAVALIERS
Take note, Tony Bennett has the Cavaliers playing his system to perfection right now, and with Miami getting a dose of reality this week at Virginia Tech, I can see the Cavs increasing on their 6 game winning streak, especially on their home floor.
Virginia is 3-1 against the spread in their lined home games, and they are also in triple-revenge against the 'Canes.
With that 81-66 beatdown suffered in Blacksburg earlier this week, the 15-2 Hurricanes have got to be asking themselves, "are we as good as our record indicates?"
With that question swirling in their heads, I can assure you Tony Bennett will have his team primed to notch win # 7 in a row.
Go Wahoos!
MR EAST
NFL SATURDAY MASTERPIECE
BALTIMORE @ INDIANAPOLIS
4 UNITS: BALTIMORE +6.5
The Indianapolis Colts perhaps could of finished the season 16-0, but they chose to laydown the last 2 weeks to avoid injuries, and get into the playoffs healthy. The Colts have been living the good life. They are 27-5 over the last 2 seasons, but let's examine their record vs .500 or better teams during this 27-5 run. Last year they faced 10 teams that were .500 or better. The result was a 7-3 record, which looks great, but of the 7 wins, 5 of them were by 4 points or less, and another by 6 points, so all together 9 of the 10 would not have covered this spread. This year the Colts played 6 more games that were decided by 4 points or less vs decent teams. The margin for error with this team is very slim, despite the fact they have Peyton Manning at QB. The Ravens defense really got to Tom Brady, and made him look about as bad as he has ever looked in a playoff game, and they were the first team to go to Foxboro and win a playoff game since 1978! They didn't just win, they destroyed the Pats. The Ravens now own a win vs the Pats, a 2 point loss to the Colts, a 2 point loss to Minnesota on the road, and a 5 point win vs San Diego, also on the road. This team finds a way to hang in almost every game they play, and are much better than their record. They have won as many road playoff games in this decade (6) than any other team in any other decade, and I like them to at the very least be down the stretch with a chance to win, so I'll go with them here. Ravens get the call.
Wayne Root
No Limit - Saints (-7) over Cardinals
Millionaire - Colts (-6½) over Ravens