Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
New Orleans -7
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting good value on the home-side in this situation:
While I believe last week's high scoring game was an aberration, Drew Brees and company will be licking their chops after having the week off to heal up some nagging injuries and after watching Aaron Rodgers shred the Cardinals depleted secondary.
Facing an Arizona defense that gave up 500 yards on two occasions this season and let the Packers rack up 403 through the air would seem to have Brees salivating.
Keep in mind that Arizona is 1-4 ATS its last five games vs. New Orleans.
On the other side of the field: The Saints (13-3) didn’t put up 51 points this season, but scored 45 or more four times in the first six weeks and at least 35 three more times in starting 13-0; although they stumbled down the stretch, I expect with the extra week off that Brees and company will come out as efficient as ever.
Remember, New Orleans is 13-3 SU its last 16 and always plays tough in front of the home town crowd; 10-3 SU its last 13 at the Superdome.
Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one; the Saints are well-rested, get home field advantage and get to play a tired and banged up Cardinals squad; look for NEW ORLEANS to move to 4-2 ATS this season vs. teams with a winning record and for Arizona to fall to 0-2 ATS vs. NFC South division opponents!
6* SAINTS
Marc Lawrence
UCLA pk
The Bruins host the Trojans in a key PAC 10 showdown Saturday night at Pauley Pavilion in Westwood with revenge on their minds from last year's conference tourney defeat. That sets the table as UCLA is 4-1 SU and ATS in games when seeking PAC 10- tourney revenge, including 2-0 SU and ATS at home. In addition, the Bruins are 5-0 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than three points in this series when playing off a loss. The clincher, though, comes from our powerful database as it tells us to: Play On as home dog or favorite of less than three points off a previous home loss that won 20 or more games last season if they have revenge from a conference tourney loss last season. That's because these teams are 15-5-1 ATS if they have won 30 or more of their previous 40 home games, including 5-0 ATS if the opponent is off a loss. Look for the Bruins to improve to 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games when seeking revenge here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on UCLA.
Lenny Del Genio
Oregon State +4.5
Perhaps the order came from as high as brother-in-law and commander-in-chief Barack Obama, but Craig Robinson's Oregon State Beavers have turned it around since suffering a humiliating 99-48 loss to non-lined Seattle on January 6th. They upset rival Oregon in Eugene as eight-point underdogs on Sunday and then two days ago carried the momentum into a home date with Arizona, whom the squeaked past for a 67-64 win and cover. That brings OSU to a perfect 4-0 ATS in Pac 10 play this year, not to mention the Beavers are also a perfect 6 for 6 as an underdog. That includes an earlier win at George Washington. Overall, they are 9-2 ATS in all lined games this season. Perhaps Barack is betting? Probably not, but it sure does seem as if Oregon State can get away with whatever they want in their home arena, which spells bad news for visiting Arizona State, a team we've cashed with twice over the last nine days. This is a matchup of teams playing the 1-3-1 zone, which the Sun Devils shooters won't like as they prefer a less physical opponent like the Washington State group the rolled over for the last Sunday. The Beavers are more agressive in their zone than is ASU, not to mention probably have the edge in dribble penetration on the offensive end, which is a requirement to disrupt the zone. Take Oregon State.
NSA
20* Baltimore +6.5
20* New Orleans -7
20* Oklahoma +3.5(BIG 12 GOY)
10* Syracuse +4.5
10* Louisville +2
10* UNLV -11.5
10* Oklahoma
RAS
Towson/Del Under 141
Delware -5
James Madison -1.5
Denver -3
Troy +2
CS Fullerton -5.5
New Mex. St. -3
Psychic
2 unit over 44 Balt-Ind
3 unit over 56 Az-NO (best bet)
3 unit Arizona +7 (best bet)
4 unit Indianapolis -6.5 (major)
DAVID MALINSKY
4* WASHINGTON over CALIFORNIA
Mike Montgomery?s Cal squad is loaded with quickness but lacks size.
So naturally they know they need to run and push pace to be
successful. That led to a 93-88 road win against a Washington State
team that they matched up well against on Thursday night. But it is
an entirely different story here. Now they go up against an opponent
that has every bit as much quickness, but also more size and depth,
and at the frenetic pace that we are going to see, the Bears face a
difficult challenge to stay in contact over the course of the full 40
minutes.
Here is Montgomery?s problem in a nutshell ? despite jumping out to a
28-8 lead on Thursday, which should have created a game flow that
could have generated some rest for the starters, the game was never
fully under control. As such the Cal starting five played 173 of the
200 floor minutes, scoring 91 of the 93 points. Now the quick
turn-around to a game that starts at 11:30 on their body clocks
exacerbates those issues, and with Jorge Gutierrez (seven starts,
21.0 minutes per game) not with the team, and Markhuri Sanders-Frison
(10 starts and 17.1 minutes) sitting out on Thursday and not better
than questionable for today because of a back injury, there are few
trustworthy places to turn.
Lorenzo Romar faces no such issues. If anything his problem has been
perhaps a little too much depth, which has meant some chemistry
issues (only Quincy Poindexter and Isaiah Thomas have started every
game), but he believed he found a key by getting the hustle and
defense of Justin Holiday into the starting lineup for the first
time, and the entire team responded with a 94-61 drubbing of Stanford
that was their best game of the season. From Romar afterwards -
?Justin Holiday was the catalyst to this win. He was inserted into
the starting lineup because that things that he does best were the
things that we were lacking.? Holiday finished with six points,
seven rebounds and three steals, and keyed a defense that at one
point had generated more turnovers (11) than shots allowed (10).
Washington?s bench played 87 minutes, and generated 35 points and 18
rebounds. The Huskies are much better set to play with a high level
of energy in this setting, and we will call for them to perform much
as they did last season ? in the second game of Pac 10 weekend
clusters LY they were 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS, utilizing many of the same
edges this matchup brings.
4* KENTUCKY over AUBURN
On Thursday night we thought that Auburn was in an ideal situation at
Tennessee ? the Tigers were catching the Volunteers in an awkward
sandwich in between much bigger games vs. Kansas and Mississippi, and
were also up against a team that did not have the tools to exploit
their lack of size and depth. But even with a 12-point lead in the
first half their weaknesses were fully in play, lacking the physical
and mental toughness vs. that class of competition. So what happens
here when the setting changes in a major way? It is ugly again.
Consider how much different this set-up is. Kentucky brings much more
size and depth that Tennessee. The Wildcats also have no reason to be
distracted, having had three full days since that confidence-boosting
win at Tennessee, and they do not play again until a home game vs.
Arkansas next Saturday. It will mean the proper focus and energy at
the start of the game, and also no reason to let up at all. And that
is awful news for Jeff Lebo and his non-existent front-court,
especially since they are the ones that bring fatigue to the table,
with key cogs DeWayne Reed, Frankie Sullivan and Lucas Hargrove on
the court for 100 minutes on Thursday. They allowed Tennessee to
convert an embarrassing 24-33 on 2-point FG attempts, and there is
little that they can do to keep this from being a dunk and layup fest
for Kentucky.
This will not be a hostile environment for the Wildcats to overcome ?
Auburn only drew 5,638 for the S.E.C. home opener last Saturday, and
there are plenty of tickets available for fans that will be wearing
Kentucky blue. John Calipari has them playing with the tenacity to
take care of business in matchups such as this one, and the home team
lacks the will to counter.
4* BAYLOR over OKLAHOMA STATE
One of those absolute truisms of college basketball is that teams
that do not have much of an inside game on offense struggle on the
road, where outside shooting in a different environment creates a
lower efficiency level. So what happens to a team in a game in which
they will have no inside game at all? That is Oklahoma State?s
plight here.
With no post threat at all on offense, Travis Ford?s team relies on
either the guards penetrating to the basket, or long perimeter
jumpers. Their quickness and athleticism enables them to get away
with that at home in front of a frenzied crowd, but the expected road
struggles have already been there. In their three true road games
they have shot only 36.7 percent, managing just 26 assists in 196 FG
attempts, and in what could almost be classified as a road affair,
that loss to Rhode Island in Connecticut, they were a similar 19-53
from the field. As bad as those numbers are it gets even worse here,
as they face not only the best defense they have taken on all season,
but one that will build a wall near the basket that State can not
scale.
Baylor brings an NBA-sized starting trio up from in 7-0 Josh Lomers,
6-10 Ekpe Udoh and 6-19 Anthony Jones, and they are getting out of
that size what they should ? they lead the nation in rebounding
margin, and are 6th in blocked shots. They have out-rebounded all 15
opponents, with nine of those margins in double figures. Michigan
transfer Udoh has been the key, averaging 14.5 points, 11.5 rebounds
and 4.3 blocks per game, and despite having to sit out the first four
games he still has nearly twice as many blocks (48) as the entire
Oklahoma State team (28). But the Bears are not just about size ?
they have a savvy veteran back-court in LaceDarius Dunn (18.7 ppg)
and Tweety Carter (16.2 ppg and 6.9 assists), and show an
unselfishness across the board that has four different players with
32 or more assists already. It tells us that the patience and focus
is there to take full advantage of those mismatches down low, and
with the ball in the hands of those two veteran guards at crunch time
we can also expect a safe close-out at the FT line, where Carter is
knocking them down at 85.3 percent and Dunn at 82.8.
4* MARSHALL over TULANE
In stepping in against Tulane in the first game for the Green Wave
without mainstay PG Kevin Sims, and teammate Aaron Holmes, a tandem
that coach Dave Dickerson called ?The heart and soul of this
program?, our timing was not necessarily bad to play against
them, it was simply wrong to play on a Rice team that does not
show much toughness at all on the road. But now the setting is
entirely different, and we call for the wheels to come off tonight
against a deep and aggressive opponent that can exacerbate all of
those Tulane issues.
Donnie Jones has a deep and talented group to work with at Marshall,
and with true FR Hassan Whiteside putting his 7-0/235 frame into play
Jones is utilizing that depth the way that he should ? with the
nation?s #1 shot blocker (87, in only 378 floor minutes) around the
basket, he is extending his defense the length of the court and
attacking aggressively on the perimeter. That is a huge headache for
the Green Wave with the leadership of Sims in the back-court, and the
Green Wave will be subject to the kind of crescendo runs that have
led the Thunderding Herd to a perfect 10-0 mark at home this season,
with eight of the wins coming by 13 points or more, and in their
three lined games on this court since December 1st they shattered the
pointspread by 36 points.
The Marshall confidence level got a big boost in that 2-0 SU and ATS
CUSA road trip earlier in the week, winning despite that great depth
not being there ? Aaron Hayman did not play in either game, and
Damier Pitts served a suspension at Central Florida. The fact that
they could win both games is a sign of how much this group is
maturing, and now they get both back tonight, which enables an
aggressive approach from the opening tipoff. Not only will that cause
turnover havoc for Tulane early in the game, but in the first road
outing without those veteran leaders the poise to play well from
behind will not be there.
4* SYRACUSE over WEST VIRGINIA
It is not often that we find this much money being wagered against a team that is this good, but with the markets now opening up the 5’s as a “win” number for this matchup we are in play. Syracuse is the absolute epitome of a “tough out” – a team that brings the talent and toughness to never back down on any opposing court, and the belief that any game can be won outright. And the Orange absolutely can win this one. Bob Huggins has a lot of size and athleticism on his West Virginia roster but the Mountaineers are not going to match up well at all against zone defenses. Now they will see one of the nation’s best, and that leaves them hard-pressed to merely escape with the win, much less get any kind of margin, with the fragile 66.7 percent free throw shooting a late-game headache for a favorite trying to extend a margin
Bob Balfe
New Orleans -7
The Saints are having a great season and I was very impressed on how they won even with all of their injuries. This team will benefit greatly from the time off. The Cardinals will be without Boldin which will hurt big-time. Look for Drew Brees to have a huge day. Kurt Warner is a hard guy to go against in the playoffs, but the home field advantage will be the difference. Take the Saints.
Rob Homyak
New Orleans -7
The New Orleans Saints are 6-2 at home this season, and against 9-3 NFC opponents.
Head to Head
Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Take the Saints.
Evan Altemus
Indianapolis -6
Last week Baltimore took advantage of a struggling Tom Brady to jump out to a big lead. The Ravens offense, specifically Joe Flacco, really didn’t have to do too much to get the win. In fact, Flacco played rather poorly due to his hip injury and only completed four of ten passes. The Colts have dominated this series over the last few years, mainly because the Ravens weakness is their secondary. That unit is banged up for this game as well, so I look for them to give up tons of yards through the air. The Colts were also able to defeat the Ravens earlier this season, despite the game being in Baltimore and Joe Flacco being fully healthy. The Colts have had a few weeks to rest their banged up players, while the Ravens had to play last week. Indianapolis has a strong home field advantage, and they will be anxious to make up for losing the last two games of the year. Look for the Colts to get the win and cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION COLTS
Opposite Action Plays
Indianapolis -6
KELSO
50 Units Arkansas -2
15 Units Nebraska -3
5 Units Baylor -4.5
4 Units Ohio State -5
3 Units San Diego St -12
JeffersonSports
WEST VIRGINIA -5
LOUISVILLE PK
KBHoops
5* Iowa +3.5 *POD*
4* Louisville Pk
4* Alabama +1
4* Missouri -3.5
4* Colts -6
Nelly's LTS
1* Indy/Baltimore Under