Erin Rynning
Playmaker NY Knicks +1
Teddy Covers
Pacers
C. Mich
Wichita St.
Iowa St.
Sportsbetsnow
2 Units Saints -7
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DB Sports Consultants
7* New Orleans -7
5* Baltimore +6.5
5* Baltimore / Indianapolis OVER 44
4* New Orleans/Arizona UNDER 56.5
3* Baltimore ML +220
Billy Coleman
5* Arizona +7
Millionaire's Club
2* Oregon
2* New Orleans
SPORTS UNLIMITED
5* New Orleans Saints
7* OHIO STATE
5* Oregon State
4* Miami Florida
Sports Bank
500% Arkansas
Wayne Root
4* Wyoming +7.5
7* Washington -1½
6* Ohio State -5
We don't post Merril pro.635 but thanks for helping out.
Oops. sorry about that Blade.
We don't post Merril pro.635 but thanks for helping out.
Oops. sorry about that Blade.
Thanks anyway bro for the contribution. Some guys have asked not to be posted so we respect that. We appreciate it nonetheless
MTi Sports
5* Playoff Game of the Year
5-Star Arizona +7 over New Orleans - There is one sure way to lose money betting football and that is betting that a team with a good season-to-date record is going to break out of a downward trend in performance. The Steelers are a good example. The won the Super Bowl last season and they won five straight to get to 6-2, but they fell apart thereafter and the kept getting bet. After losing three straight they were a 14' point home favorite over the Raiders and lost 27-24. Then they were a double-digit road favorite over the Browns and lost that one 13-6. The Patriots are another example. Clearly, this season's edition of the Patriots is not nearly as good as the past, but they were made a 3' point home favorite over an excellent Ravens team last week. The Saints are reeling and everyone expects them to be able to flip the switch and turn it one for the playoffs. They have lost and failed to cover three straight - two of them as a TD+ home favorite - and they are laying a TD again - this time vs a team that went to the Super Bowl last season. We're grabbing the points.
Kurt Warner was 29-of-33 last week with 5 TD and no interceptions. He actually had more TD passes than incompletions. The Cardinals offense moved the ball down the field so crisply, they only had FIVE third down conversion attempts the entire game and they converted three of them. During the regular season, the Packers were #1 in the NFC against the rush, allowing a stingy 3.59 yards per carry. The Cardinals averaged 6.8 yards per rush against them last week.
The Packers were #1 in the NFC in total defense during the regular season, allowing only 284.4 yards per game. The Cardinals had 531 yards of offense last week and scored seven touchdowns against them. AND the Cardinals sacked Aaron Rodgers five times.
They have to be wondering why they are a TD dog against a team that has lost three straight when they are the ones that went to the super bowl last season while the Saints were 8-8 last season.
There is a very nice league-wide system that points to the Cardinals here. It involves one of the most underutilized stats in NFL handicapping - third conversion rate. NFL teams are a perfect 21-0 ATS as a FG+ underdog the week after a win as a dog in which they converted at least 50% of their third downs and failed on fewer than eight third downs attempts, as long as the game is not on a Thursday. These FG+ dogs have won 11 of the 21 games straight up and have covered by an average of 8.1 pp
The Saints have allowed 4.52 yards per carry this season and the only team in the NFC that has allowed more is the Buccaneers. The Cardinals have been especially potent against such opponents, as they are 8-0 ATS as a dog when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date, surpassing the linesmakers' expectations by an average of a staggering 17.4 ppg and winning each of the last four straight up.
Also, Arizona is a perfect 9-0 ATS (+11.1 ppg) as a dog after a game in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times. The Cardinals are 3-0 SU in this situation this season, winning every game by at least a TD despite the fact that they were the dog each time.
The Cardinals are obviously a passing team and will set up the run with the pass. New Orleans simply has not been competitive against similar teams. The Saints are 0-18 ATS as a home favorite vs a team that has rushed the ball fewer than 24.5 times per game and has passed the ball at least 33.5 times per game season-to-date, failing to cover by an average of 10.1 ppg.
The linesmakers must think that the Saints can just flip on a switch and get back to the high level of play they had at the beginning of the season. New Orleans simply peaked too early and the Cardinals are just starting to hit their stride. Check out the money-line for this one.
MTi's FORECAST: Arizona 35 NEW ORLEANS 24
Gregg Price
4* Balt - This is a tough game. We have Flacco going for his 4th road win in 2 years, against a Indy team that has owned him and Balt. Balt hasn't beaten these guys since Dec 2001, losing 6 staight. There is something about Indy come playoff time, they just crap the bed. Manning has 7 playoff wins?, with 4 coming in 2006 on their way to winning the SB. I remember Indy beating Denver back to back years in the early 2000's when Denver was on their way out after Elway retired, and then another win against K.C. So besides winning the SB, and a few easy first round wins, what has Manning done? You have to like the confidence in Flacco. He also has a very powerful running game behind him. We think Balt has lost a step defensively, but the ground game has made up for that. Balt has had a lot of close losses this year. Baltimore's 7 losses are by 39 points, with 2 being by 10 and 13, so thats 5 losses by 13 points. So these guys are in every game. The pressure is on Indy after resting players and not trying the last 2 weeks. Balt outright? Would it suprise you?
Steve Duemig
25 Dime - Saints
There are a lot of people that were really down on NO in their last couple of games. They even lost to the Bucs in OT. But that was because their field goal kicker missed a chip shot as time expired. In the final game they rested their starters. People forgot how much money they made early in the season when the linesmaker couldn't make the line high enough on the Saints and they were covering everything. Well oddsmakers tend to catch up over the course of the season and they did with the Saints. That's why people are down on them. The Saints ARE a good team. They can score they can play defense and they have the best play caller in NFL. They are also going against one of the very best playoff QB's in the history of the game.
But this game I believe will come down to the defense of AZ. They are really banged up and the are playing on a short week on the road against a very rested Saint team. The Saints can be very balanced both running and passing and Brees can create matchup problems for anyone. It will be very difficult for the AZ defense to get pressure and keep up with the Saints. I believe that this line is more than off. I have the Saints as a double digit favorite in my lines.
10 Dime - Ravens
Baltimore got off to the best start imaginable last week with Rice busting the first play for 83 yards and a TD and the Ravens never looked back. They forced early turnovers and stunned the Pats.
I don't think that happens this week though. I know by heart the defense that Indy plays because they played it for so long here in Tampa. Here's what the Colt F will not allow the Ravens to do. Run the Ball. They will not come after Flacco what so ever. No how no way. They will not be fooled by play action. They will do everything to stop and disrupt the run and will make sure that the running back has the ball. So no play action fooling for them. Flacco will have to throw to beat the Colts. No 34 yards passing thi week for a win. But the Ravens play good D and that is something you should all look for. We said last week when we were one of the very few that selected the Ravens in the gme with NE that if you play D you can "hang around" any team. Yea the Ravens have lost like 7 straight to the Colts but they have kept them all close. I look at this game as a carbon copy of the Colts first loss vs the Jets. They were beating the Jets with their starters in but not by much. Once they pulled Manning and crew we know what happened. The Ravens are the same team. So look for a Colt win but look for the Ravens to hang around enough to cover.