Marc Lawrence
East Carolina +8
East Carolina tackles Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl in a matchup of two teams that each closed the season in a positive note. After sluggish 1-2 starts for both squads this season, the Razorbacks closed out 4-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS while the Pirates finished up 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS. ECU will be making its fourth consecutive bowl appearance for the first time in school history after winning back-to-back CUSA championships. In the process, the Pirates' senior class has won 33 games, just one shy of the program’s all-time record set from 1975-78. That will be their goal today. ECU will line up against an unpredictable Arkansas defense that got torched for 402 YPG this season and as you know, 400-yard defensive favorites are an automatic fade for us. In addition, the Hogs are a miserable 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS as bowlers since 1984 (0-7 ATS against foes off back-to-back wins) while Arkansas HC Bobby Petrino is 1-4 ATS in the post season play. Meanwhile, East Carolina HC Skip Holtz is an immensely profitable 22-7-1 ATS when taking points, including 7-1-1 ATS against a foe off a SU loss. The clincher comes from our powerful database as it tells us to: Play Against any sub .750 bowl favorite off three ATS wins in its last three games versus an opponent that allows less than 24 PPG in the season if the favorite won seven or fewer games last season and the dog is off a loss or win of less than 14 points. That's because these favorites are 0-15 ATS in bowl games since 1980. With Liberty Bowl favorites having cashed just one ticket in the last five tries, look for the conference champ to upend the non-champ here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on East Carolina.
Bob Balfe
South Carolina -3.5
UConn had a very good season and overcame so much. This team has won the heart of College Football fans across America. South Carolina plays great defense and their offense has really come a long way. Last year their QB Garcia played horrible in their bowl loss and will be out to redeem himself today. This UConn pass defense is pretty bad which will have South Carolina on the move all day. This game should be over pretty quick if South Carolina can hold onto the ball. Take South Carolina.
Rocketman
Georgia Southern +16.5
Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. We'll play Georgia Southern for 3 units today!
Lenny Del Genio
Mississippi -3
This is an interesting matchup because both schools are probably disappointed to be here. That's saying something considering the marquee reputation the Cotton Bowl carries (considered one of the 1 of 2 best non BCS-bowl games based on payout) and the fact that Ole Miss and Oklahoma State's profiles still remain pretty low on the national radar. But both were thinking bigger things when the season started with some (including us) projecting the Rebels to even win the SEC West over Alabama and the Cowboys expected to make more noise in what was supposed to be a more difficult year in the Big 12. Mississippi quickly showed that it was not ready for primetime, losing early in the year at South Carolina and later losses to 'Bama and Auburn reinforced that. We can write off a season ending loss to rival Mississippi State as a case of not caring in a game that meant very little vs. an opponent with a 1st year underdog HC playing for its season. Still, there was plenty to like about the Rebels this year, namely RB Dexter McCluster, who ran for 6.7 yards per carry on his 147 attempts while adding 39 catches for an additional 497 yards. In late season wins over bowl teams Tennessee and LSU, McCluster went for a combined 490 yards from scrimmage. The key to this game for Ole Miss will be taking care of the football. In their four losses, they were -8 in turnover margin. Even in their eight wins, they lost the TO battle. In Oklahoma State, they have an opponent that also turned the ball over four times or more four different times this season. The Cowboys started the season the way they wanted to - by clubbing Georgia 24-10 - but that win no longer looks as good as it did then, and it probably represented the peak of the entire OSU season. In their two big conference games - vs. Texas and at Oklahoma - they were blown out by a 68-14 margin while amassing only 21 first downs 386 yards total offense combined. It's easy to see what went wrong with this team as Dez Bryant (expected to be 1st WR taken in April's NFL Draft) and LB Orie Lemon (2nd on team in tackles LY) were both lost for good very early, the former due to NCAA stupidity and the latter due to injury, and QB Robinson and RB Hunter were never 100% all season long. The line being this low does not properly reflect the gap in talent here. Other than Big 12 lightweights Iowa State and Baylor, the Cowboys had just one conference win by more than a touchdown. The Cotton Bowl is where all the hype for this year's Ole Miss squad began with last year's drubbing of Texas Tech and the Rebels now carry a streak of seven consecutive covers vs. non-conference teams. They are now 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in bowl games, including a 31-28 Cotton Bowl win over Oklahoma State back in '04, Eli Manning's final game. This is Jevan Snead's curtain call. OSU is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS as an underdog in bowl games. Ole Miss is our Cotton Bowl Winner.
Gary Olshan
East Carolina vs Arkansas
Pick: East Carolina +8
Take points with well-coached ECU which has been a solid dog under HC SKip HOltz. Pirate QB Pinkney has been battle-tested, and his weapons do business vs. an Arkansas defense lacking many playmakers. Hog QB Mallett has the big arm, but the veteran ECU 2ndary wont allow many big plays in this bowl.
James Patrick Sports
Mississippi (8-4) vs. Oklahoma State (9-3)
This is the first Cotton Bowl since 2004 for the Cowboys when they lost to these same Rebels of Ole Miss. The Cowboys are off a shutout loss in the Bedlam Rivalry with the Oklahoma Sooners (27-0) and that game cost them a BCS appearance. The biggest addition to the Oklahoma State program this season was that of DC Bill Young as he solidified the Cowboys Defense. From what we saw on the field down the stretch this season from OK State offensively, they really showed the effects of the suspension of WR Dez Bryant. After Bryant's suspension the Cowboys posted (25.8 ppg) as opposed to their (39 ppg) prior. The Rebels will count on the leadership of (22) seniors to get them over a horrible loss to rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. The Rebs ride a (7) game win streak against non-conference opponents and Ole Miss has been a solid Bowl team with a (6-1-1) ATS mark the past (8) post season games. This is the final game at the control of the "Wild Rebel Offense" for QB Jevon Snead and we look for a huge game from him here. Mississippi is (4-0-1) ATS against the Big XII Conference in Bowl Game action and the Cowboys are (0-3-1) ATS in their past (4) Bowl Games when installed as the underdog. We'll take HC Houston Nutt against his Alma Mater and former player as the Ole Miss Rebels win the Cotton Bowl. 3* Mississippi Rebels
East Carolina (9-4) vs. Arkansas (7-5)
Arkansas fans are "Hog Wild" over the fact that their team has a Bowl Game and the Razorback faithful bought 15,000 seats for this game just (319) miles from Fayettville. Arkansas played well down the stretch going (4-1) ATS and scoring (44.8 ppg) behind QB Ryan Mallet as he has led the Hogs with some impressive & explosive numbers which include (6.8) yards per play and (37 ppg). Only a couple of gut wrenching losses to Florida and LSU kept the Razorbacks out of a more high profile game. The competition will be stiff here as HC Skip Holtz and his Pirates return to this Bowl Game for the second straight season after capturing their second consecutive Conference USA Title. The ECU defense has allowed (22 pts) per game and (386 yds) but they haven't seen a passing attack with the speed and precision like Arkansas has. One of the worst pass defenses through the air, the Pirates must put pressure on Mallet. ECU does return (16) starters and they average (34 ppg) this season's past (7) games. The Pirates have posted winning Over the Total ATS wins in (4) of (5) Bowl Games, and this Pirate - Hog match-up promises to be entertaining offensively - so let the scoring begin in Elvis' Backyard. 5* Pot of Gold Arkansas - East Carolina Over the Total
Michigan State (6-6) vs. Texas Tech (8-4)
Texas Tech's pass happy HC Mike Leach and his Red Raiders "Red Gun Offense" has ran out of bullets as he was sent packing prior to their 10th straight Bowl Game under his direction and his former team brings the 9th ranked scoring offense in college football averaging 37 ppg. Twice this season the Red Raiders have thrown 8 touchdown passes in a game. Spartan HC Mark Dantonio has MSU in their 3rd straight Bowl Game for the 1st time since the mid 90's. Suspensions and Dismissals from the Spartan Football Program has an already depleted and beleaguered secondary that ranks as the poorest in the Big Ten Conference set up to struggle even more. The Spartans Pass Defense has surrendered 16 touchdown passes with only 1 interception the past 6 games and in their past three conference games Michigan State has been hit up for over 500 yds per game. Can the Big Ten's poorest pass defense slow down the Big XII's best passing attack ? For all the right reasons nobody gives the Spartans a chance here with (12) player suspensions, so what can we expect ? We know that the underdog is in Texas Tech Bowl Games are a solid (9-2) ATS and we also know that Big XII favorites of (-7+) or more are (5-17-1) ATS, just 27%. Add to the mix that when the Big Ten and Big XII hook-up the underdogs are are (14-4) ATS for 78%. And we know that Big Ten underdogs of (+4+ Points) are (20-9-1) ATS. The Big Ten representative has cashed a winning ticket at a (10-3) ATS mark in the Alamo Bowl. The only teams that have had success against the Red Raiders are those that held them under their average rushing yards and made them turn the ball over. Every Bowl Season some team looks as though they haven't got a prayer due to the loss of players through elgibility or suspensions. We can't count the Spartans out here as being one of those teams, because HC Mark Dantonio is a great game manager and this will be a better contest than anyone expects. 3* Michigan State Spartans
SAMMY JANKUS
Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
Ole Miss vs Oklahoma St
3* Oklahoma St +3.5
Jeez, is anybody left on Oklahoma State’s offense? Suspension, injuries… you name it – the Cowboys aren’t anywhere close to full strength. Since I can’t get that ugly 27-0 season-ending destruction by the Sooners out of my mind, I’ve got no choice but to take Houston’s Rebels – so your play is on OKLAHOMA ST.
Arkansas vs East Carolina
5* East Carolina +7.5
You’re hearing it first right here: the Hogs will be next year’s team to be feared in the SEC! With so many scoring weapons at their disposal, I’m dumbfounded that the Razorbacks aren’t laying doubles to this second-rate C-USA squad. I see Arkansas winning this BIG – so your play is on EAST CAROLINA.
Score
400% Texas Tech
300% S Carolina
300% Oklahoma State
Adam Wins
So Florida
Ethan Law
2% ECU Under
1% South Carolina
Dennis Hill
South Carolina
Ok. St.
Arkansas
JOHN RYAN
15* Ole' Miss/Ok St Over 51
Red Zone Sports
Top play of the month UCONN +3.5
Arkansas/ E Carolina Over 63.5
Mark Lawrence
14-0 ATS Awesome Angle Cotton Bowl Key Play!
Ok St.
Vegas Hotsheet
SC
MISS
ARK
TT