BIG AL
New York / Indianapolis Under
New Orleans
Wunderdog
3 Units New Orleans / Seattle Over 44
1 Unit Seattle +450
With their week 17 win over the Rams, the Seahawks became the first 7-9 team to win their division and host a playoff game. As a reward, they get the defending Super Bowl Champions, a team that won 11 games. How can Seattle possibly have any shot here? Well, their chances are low, but hear me out. I believe it's worth a small flyer on Seattle to pull off the monster upset. This Saints team, while definitely the better team taking the field in this game, has some real chinks in their armor. It has been an upside down year for the Saints, who dominated teams a year ago with a potent offensive attack. They scored 30+ points 12 times through the Super Bowl and went for 45+ on five occasions. This season the Saints’ attack is still good, but has not reached 35 points in a single game this season (the only playoff team with such a distinction). So needless to say that what got them here a year ago, has been absent this year. Drew Brees is one reason. Brees has had a good year, but he has suddenly become a mistake-prone QB, doubling his interceptions from a year ago from 11 to 22 this year. And, his yards per attempt went from 8.5 a year ago to a pedestrian 7.0 this year. Part of the problem for Brees is the lack of a running game. Last season the Saints owned the sixth best running game in the league. This year, they are fifth worst! And, they just lost Chris Ivory, their leading rusher (and Pierre Thomas is still out). Their offensive struggles have led to a home loss to Tampa Bay and Cleveland, as well as a road loss to Arizona. If those teams can beat the Saints, why not the Seahawks? Last week the noise in Seattle inspired a team in their biggest game of the season. A team that allowed 34 points or more points in each of their last three games kept the Rams out of the end zone the entire game. The Seahawks played the Saints statistically even on the road in New Orleans this year, losing the yardage battle by 382-366 in a high-scoring game. Matt Hasselback is back under center for the Seahawks and this is a QB with a winning playoff pedigree. The Saints haven't won a road playoffs game ever. This will be their third game in 12 days. The pressure here won't be on Seattle as they are playing with house money. Yes, it's a longshot that isn't likely to win, but I am putting one unit on a crazy upset here. I am also playing the OVER. These teams played to 53 points earlier in the season. In their last seven playoff games, the Saints have gone UNDER the total just once. They are also 20-9 to the OVER in their last 29 as a road favorite. Seattle has played 5-0 to the OVER vs. a winning team, as well as 8-1 to the OVER in their last nine games. Over the past two seasons, the Seahawks are 10-2 to the OVER when facing a winning team. Over that same span, the Saints are 8-1 OVER on the road to a total in this range (42-49). I like this game to go OVER the total and taking a small flyer on the home team to pull off the upset.
3 Units New York Jets at Indianapolis Over 44.5
The Colts lost four of five games this season and it had many questioning whether this team was ready to start a decline. But, four straight wins to close the season have quieted the murmurs somewhat. It may look like Peyton Manning had an off season, and may be declining. He probably is on the downward slope in his career. But, this is still one of the league's elite QBs. He passed for 4,700 yards, completing 66% of his passes and throwing for 33 TDs (all three ranked second best in the league). His problems were really encapsulated in a midseason 5-game slump. Manning threw 13 INTs in the five games to just 9 TD passes, but his other 11 games show him with Brady-like numbers at 24 TDs to 4 INTs. The Colts offense has been better in the last five games of the season than any five-game stretch all season, averaging 31 points per game. That has led those games to average 57.8 ppg, far and away above the number needed here to push this one OVER the total. New York's offense and Mark Sanchez is dissed often but this team has scored a lot of points in a lot of games this season. They had four stinkers in which they scored 9 vs. Baltimore, 0 vs. Green Bay, 3 vs. New England and 6 vs. Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh and Green Bay own the #1 and #2 defenses in the league in points allowed while New England is #8. Miami is in the top half in scoring defense and 6th best in the league in yards allowed. So, this offense really couldn't get it done vs. great defenses. But, in their other 12 games, the Jets put up 29 points per game! The Colts are ranked in the bottom 3rd in the league in scoring defense, so I expect New York to score here. The Jets defense has proven to be a lot more vulnerable this season, especially against the pass. That's Indy's strength. The Jets allowed 16 ppg through their first nine games, but 22.3 ppg in their last seven. On the road on the season they have allowed 24.6 per game. They are now 13-3-1 to the OVER in their last 17 road games, and 6-0 over as a dog of 3 or less. This season, when facing a pass defense that allows 61%+ completions, the Jets are a perfect 10-0 OVER. They are also 7-1 OVER in expected close games (line of -3 to +3). Indy is running at 6-0-1 to the OVER in their last seven as a favorite of 3 or less and 11-1 OVER the past two seasons when coming off an UNDER. Take the OVER in this one.
Dr. Bob
3* Seattle +10
Erin Rynning
20* Kentucky
Ben Burns
10* Jets / Colts Under 44.5
9* Seahawks +11
DOUBLE DRAGON
TOP
COLTS -PK (-130)
REGULAR
SAINTS -10 (-115)
KENTUCKY +3.5
Sixth Sense
BEST BETS
3% SEATTLE +10
3% NEW ORLEANS/SEATTLE OVER 44.5
New Orleans -10 SEATTLE 44.5
Seattle got a big win over St. Louis last week to get into the playoffs in this game versus NO. It’s been well documented on how bad Seattle is and hosting a playoff game with a 7-9 record is not deserved. That’s a debate for someone else but I believe they are a live dog in this game. Seattle has lost every game this year by at least 15 points so when they are losing, it’s in blow out fashion. But, a closer look to their season is in order to get a better understanding of how this game may play out. There are three key contributors to their offense and they are QB Matt Hasselbeck (when he isn’t turning the ball over), WR Mike Williams and LT Russell Okung. Those three really only played together in two games this year where they were either healthy for the majority of the game (or in the case of early in the year the Seahawks didn’t know what they had with Williams). Those two games resulted in a 23-20 victory at Chicago and a 34-19 loss at New Orleans. The game against the Saints was interesting because Seattle came out in passing mode and threw the ball on 44 of 61 attempts (72%). They threw for 366 yards at 8.3yps. Overall, in the game, they totaled 424 yards at 7.0yppl. So, they certainly moved the ball well in that game. Unfortunately for Seattle, so did New Orleans. They threw for 382 yards at 8.9yps and totaled 494 yards at 6.9yppl. For NO, other than the first drive of the game, which resulted in a three and out, they scored td’s, had a missed field goal (were in scoring range) or threw an interception inside the Seattle 10 yard line. In other words, Seattle really never stopped NO at all. Seattle only had two three and outs for the whole game.
I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor NO by only six points and predict about 46 points. NO has struggled to win by a lot on the road this year. They have wins at Carolina by a score of 34-3 but that doesn’t count and they did defeat TB 31-6 early in the year when TB hadn’t found their identity yet. Other than that, they haven’t defeated a team by more than four points on the road this year. Seattle has some blow out losses at home but the Giants blow out was with Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback. The KC blow out was without Mike Williams. The Atlanta blow out only came to be because Hasselbeck turned the ball over (once in the end zone, which resulted in a touchdown) and they scored 10 other points on drives of 30 and 21 yards due to turnovers. Seattle actually out gained Atlanta in that game, 4.2yppl to 3.6yppl.
NO will be without Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas at running back leaving most of the workload to Reggie Bush and Julius Jones. They will also be without Malcolm ******* in the secondary. He also missed the first game between these two. Missing their key running backs should only pick the pace of this game up even more for NO. With Hasselbeck at quarterback, Seattle can score points at home. They have scored at least 18 points in every home game with Hasselbeck at qb. NO has scored at least 20 points in seven of eight road games and 24 or more in six of eight road games. Both these teams should put points on the board. Rain is predicted but the winds look to be low so we should be fine with the total. NEW ORLEANS 30 SEATTLE 24
INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 NY Jets 44.5
I don’t have much of an opinion on this game. My numbers favor Indy by two points and predict about 45 points. The Jets certainly can control this game if they get their running game going along with play action. But, in a close call, I like Peyton Manning versus Mark Sanchez almost any day of the week. Combine that with Freeney and Mathis attacking Sanchez, I just think Indy’s potential to move the ball through the air gives them an advantage but it’s a weak lean at best. INDIANAPOLIS 24 NY JETS 21
DON WALLACE SPORTS
5* NEW ORLEANS -10
5* INDIANAPOLIS -2
3* INDIANA +7
3* PHILADELPHIA -2
3* MEMPHIS +7
3* DALLAS +5
Teddy Covers
Saints / Seahawks Over
Colts
Kentucky
Mike Lineback
5* Teaser: Saints -3 & Ravens +4
Anthony Redd
25 Dime Pittsburgh
25 Dime New Orleans
25 Dime NY Jets
Psychic (1-5)
2 units New Orleans -10.5
3 units Kentucky +4
5 units New York Jets +3 (WISEGUY)
Vegas Express (1-50)
25 units New Orleans -10.5
35 units Kentucky +4
Sports Machine (1-20)
15 units Jets-Colts UNDER 44.5
NFL Guru (1-10)
3 units Saints-Hawks UNDER 45
5 units New Orleans -10.5
Matt Fargo
10* Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is heading to its fifth straight bowl game after another preseason of limited expectations. That tells us a lot about the coaching staff and the players that make up this team. The Wildcats finished 6-6 during the regular season and even though it owned a 2-6 record in the SEC, it was better than that indicates. Kentucky defeated South Carolina which was its signature while losing to Auburn by only a field goal and Mississippi St. by just a touchdown. Pittsburgh is coming off a vastly disappointing 7-5 season and playing in an underwhelming bowl in what will likely have a catatonic atmosphere in the stands. That will make it tough for the Panthers to get up for this game and I just cannot see how the players heads will be in this game. Sure it is a football game and the Panthers will not be laying down by nay means but as far as execution and mental stamina, I don't think those two aspects are going to be on Pittsburgh's side. The Pittsburgh coaching situation is an absolute mess as everyone is well aware and it is hard to prepare a team with all of the changes that have taken place. No offense to Phil Bennett, who is the defensive coordinator and the interim coach for this game, but it is unlikely his team is going to rally around him after his decision to take the defensive coordinator position at Baylor after this. The staff is also missing defensive backs coach Jeff Hafley and offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti, who both went to work for Rutgers. Kentucky will be without starting quarterback Mike Hartline who was suspended for this game but that is balanced by the Panthers missing Big East defensive player of the year Jabaal Sheard and starting defensive tackle Myles Caragein because of injuries. The absence of Sheard cannot be overstated. Kentucky's opponents winning percentage was certainly not great at .462 but that was skewed by two teams (Akron and Western Kentucky) that finished a combined 3-21. With Hartline out, look for a lot of Randall Cobb, who is one of the nation's most versatile players, threw three touchdown passes for the Wildcats while rushing for 401 yards and five scores. On the other side, the Panthers offense revolves around tailback Dion Lewis who saved his best game for last but overall, had a touch season. The Wildcats are 46th in the country in total defense which is pretty solid considering some of the teams they played from the ACC. Kentucky is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games outside the SEC so you put this team in any other conference and the numbers and records would even be better. The Panthers meanwhile are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win and they are 2-4 this season following a win, losing those four games by an average of 15.3 ppg. First year head coaches tend to struggle in their first bowl game but Joker Philips will be just fine here as he is going up against a coaching staff that doesn't even exist. 10* Kentucky Wildcats
Texas Sports Wire
2* Kentucky
The Prez
7* Pittsburgh Panthers
6* Indianapolis
4* Seattle/New Orleans Over