RAS
New Mexico State -6
Marshall +1
Portland State -6
Montana State +8.5
Cal State Fullerton +4
Houston +8.5
Nebraska -4
Delaware +9
Sacramento State +11.5
DAVID MALINSKY
4* TEXAS / CONNECTICUT UNDER 144
On Tuesday we went into detail about how this Texas defense may well be the nation’s best, if we factor both their performance numbers, and the competition the Longhorns have faced. The result was an easy 4* Side ticket as they locked Arkansas down to the tune of 46 points on 34.7 percent shooting, and we will not hesitate to stay in play again, although this time it is a different path. Once again we can call for the Texas defense to be effective, but on a day that the Longhorns also struggle to score the Total is the play.
Connecticut got of to a surprisingly strong start with Kemba Walker exploding from the gate offensively, but now opponents are finding out that the rest of the Huskies are nothing special on that end of the court, and putting extra attention on Walker. With help defense quick to come he is struggling to get many clear looks, and when stepping up into Big East play he has shot just 36.8 percent (25-68) over the last three games. Now it is the first true non-conference road game, and on his first look at these rims that slide continues.
Connecticut will defend, however. The Huskies are allowing just 38.3 percent from the field, including rating #2 in the nation in blocked shots, and there is little to be found easily near the basket against them. While the Texas defense is outstanding the offense remains a work in progress, and given that the Longhorns are likely the team playing with the lead down the stretch, their 65.1 percent struggles at the free throw line also work in our favor.
Jim Feist
GOY - Colts
NORTHCOAST
SAINTS
COLTS
MARQUEE - PITT
TOTALS
PITT OVER
SEAHAWKS OVER
JETS UNDER
Trace Adams
For Wild Card Saterday in the NFL, 1500♦ Opening Round Gift Lock on New Orleans minus the points on the road over the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks. In college basketball at noon eastern, lay the road wood again with the North Carolina Tar Heels as they play at Virginia.
Before you start calling me "Mr. Chalk", hear me out!
The linemakers are flat-out telling you that you HAVE to lay this number on the road, as they pretty much are begging you to believe that the 7-9 division-winning Seahawks stand a chance to keep this one close.
I know New Orleans is contending with multiple injuries, but I believe in Sean Payton's coaching prowess, I believe in Drew Brees having a field day against this defense, and I also believe in the New Orleans defense contributing to this blowout win.
My gut is telling me this could be a 28-10, or 30-10 New Orleans win and cover without blinking an eye.
Seattle's pass defense is ranked 27th in the league, so expect plenty of spread formations when the Saints have the ball. Remember, New Orleans has already handled this team once this season 34-19 at the Superdome just before Thanksgiving, and while the teams are totally different in this meeting, the philosophies should be the same for New Orleans.
When Seattle loses, they lose BIG. That 15 point loss to the Saints was the closest loss margin in their 9 losses this year. In fact their average margin of defeat was 21 points!
Matt Hasselbeck is slated to start, but this guy has been a turnover machine, and is more than capable of giving the opportunistic Saints defense a few scoring chances via the interception.
As long as Brees limits his mistakes, this game will not be close.
Have to LAY IT all day long!
Let me take you back to January 31st, 2010. That was the date Virginia scored 18 straight points in the 2nd half of their game at the Smith Center as the Wahoos whopped it up on UNC hardwood, 75-60.
I assure you Roy Williams has reminded his team of this loss, and I assure you a road payback is in order this Saturday afternoon.
Cavaliers leading scorer and rebounder Mike Scott is dealing with an ankle injury that required arthroscopic surgery in the middle of December, and that is bad news for Tony Bennett's team.
Regardless, I am laying it with the Tar Heels as they have reeled off 3 straight wins - 2-0 against the spread - since their home upset loss to Texas before Christmas.
The Cavs are on a 3-10 spread slide their last 13 as a home underdog, and they will lose touch today against the revenge-seeking Tar Heels.
Rob Rosenhaus
Stanford +11.5
Jay McNeil
Seahawks
Brett Atkins
Seahawks
Joel Tyson
Colts
NC State
Al Demarco
Orlando Magic
Syracuse
Craig Davis
Jets
Seahawks
2 Minute Warning
Colts
Chuck O'Brien
Jets
Seahawks
Matt Rivers
Colts
Saints
RAS
Austin Peay Over 128.5
Ben Burns
10* Chicago Bulls
Jim Feist
CBB GOM - Texas
Steve Budin
Colts / Jets Over 44.5
Andy Fanelli
Colts
Jeff Benton
50 Dime Seattle
15 Dime Seattle 1st Half
5 Dime Seattle ML
Surprised? Surprised I would back the first 7-9 team to ever make the playoffs? Surprised I would back a team that’s the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history? Surprised I would back a team that A) won just three of its final 10 games, with those three wins coming against the Rams (7-9), Cardinals (5-11) and Panthers (2-14); and B) didn’t lose a game by less than 15 points all season (that being a 34-19 loss at the Saints six weeks ago, plus three home losses to the Falcons, Chiefs and Giants by scores of 41-7, 42-24 and 34-18 )?
You won’t be surprised after you check out the 10 reasons I love this historic underdog:
1. I’d venture to guess I’m the first person you’ve encoantered all week long that is picking Seattle. Seriously, EVERYONE loves the Saints in this game, with the exception of a few “sharps” in Vegas (myself included) that jumped on Seattle at +10½ and drove this number back down to +10. Well, I trust Vegas wise guys a whole helluva lot more than I trust Joe Public. And the fact of the matter is when the whole world lines up on one side of a game, I almost always go the other way, because in games like these, the public is rarely right. They won’t be right today, either.
2. Because of #1 – because they knew the public wanted no part of the Seahawks in this game – Vegas had to inflate this pointspread. And boy did they inflate it. Consider: Back on Nov. 21, Seattle went to the Big Easy and was an 11-point road underdog vs. the Saints. Today, the Seahawks are a 10-point home underdog – and keep in mind that Seattle is are coming off one of its most dominating efforts of the season, while New Orleans is are coming off a 10-point home loss. Also note that with the exception of the Saints game, Seattle was never bigger than a seven-point underdog all season.
3. Yes, the Seahawks had nine horrendous losses – we’re talking defeats of 17, 18, 30, 34, 15, 18, 19, 16 and 23 points. There’s no way to pretty up that picture. But to suggest they didn’t beat anybody this year is dead wrong. Seattle opened the season with a 31-6 rout of the 49ers (the team favored to win the NFC West). Two weeks later it beat the Chargers 27-20 as a four-point home underdog (San Diego is immensely talented and finirshed the season ranked first in total offense and total defense). And then two weeks after that, the Seahawks went to Soldier Field and beat the Bears 23-20 as a six-point road underdog (Chicago went 11-5, won the NFC North and earned a bye this week as the #2 seed).
4. Qwest Field is arguably THE loudest venue in the entire NFL (it ranks #1 in opposing team’s false starts). In the playoffs, the noise level at Qwest jumps to deafening levels. Make no mistake, the crowd noise will be unlike anything the Saints have faced this season. Speaking of New Orleans on the road …
5. This is the Saints third road trip in the last four weeks (and fifth in the last seven weeks), and it’s the longest journey of them all (it’s 2,100 miles from New Orleans to Seattle). On top of that, the Saints drew the early Saturday slot, costing them a day of preparation. By comparison, the Seahawks played at home last week, knocking off the Rams to clinch the NFC West, and this is their fifth home game in the last seven weeks.
6. Fact: The Saints went 6-2 on the road this year (better than their 5-3 home record). Fact: They went just 3-5 ATS, failing to cover in three of their last four road games, with two of the non-covers coming as a favorite. New Orleans needed to rally at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day (30-27 as a 4½-point chalk), then rallied again the following week at Cincinnati (winning 34-30 as a 6½-point road chalk). (Now is the time when I remind you that Dallas finished 6-10 this year and the Bengals finished 4-12 – two records worse than Seattle’s 7-9 mark. And yet the Seahawks are a 10-point ‘dog, while the Bengals and Cowboys were catching 4½ and 6½ points). After barely escaping in Dallas and Cincinnati, the Saints’ next road trip was to Baltimore and they lost 30-24 as a one-point underdog, followed the next week by a 17-14 win at Atlanta as a two-point underdog. Add it up in their last four road games, the Saints had three wins (two over sub-.500 records) by a total of 10 points and one loss. And again, they’re a 10-point chalk today.
7. I already detailed how tough Qwest Field is on visitors. Now throw in a dome team that relies almost exclusively on its passing game going outdoors and dealing with the elements – elements like cold and rain (temperdtures are forecast in the low 40s/high 30s with a 50 percent chance of rain/snow). Seattle couldn’t have hoped for a better gift from Mother Nature.
8. Indeed, Saints QB Drew Brees strafed Seattle’s shaky secondary in the 34-19 home win in November, completing 67 percent of his passes for 382 yards and four TDs. However, that game was indoors; this game is outside in cold and possible wet weather. Also, Brees had the threat of a running game to help him in November. Today, he does not. His top two RBs – rookie Chris Ivory and last year’s postseason hero Pierre Thomas – were put on injured reserve this week. That leaves the ball-carrying duties to Reggie Bush (who is not a between-the-tackles runner) and washed-up Julius Jones (who had a goal-line fumble last week that contributed greatly to the Saints’ 23-13 loss to Tampa Bay). Also, with respect to Bush: If it rains today, his electrifying speed will be greatly diminished on a wet track (and Bush has trouble holding onto the ball as it is). Speaking of turnovers …
9. Brees was hardly flawless in the 15-point home win over the Seahawks, as he threw two INTs. For the season, the reigning Super Bowl MVP was picked 22 times (only Eli Manning had more), and he threw at least one INT in each of his last 12 games (20 of his 22 picks came in those dozen games). Don’t get me wrong: Brees is still one of the five best QBs in the league, and he’s certainly superior to the Matt Hasselbeck/Charlie Whitehurst combo that combined for an ugly 14-20 TD to INT ratio). However, do you want to lay double digits with a quarterback who has no running game, likely will be handling a wet football and is struggling to protect the football? I sure don’t.
10. Lastly, do you know how many playoff games the Saints have won in their history away from the Superdome? One – last year’s 31-17 victory over the Colts in the Super Bowl. And, of course, that was played on a neutral field in Miami. So never has this organization won a postseason game in a true hostile environment. And, to repeat, they’re flying 2,100 miles and laying 10 points in crappy weather against an opponent that has arguably the best homefield advantage in the entire NFL. Oh, and there’s this, too: The Saints have failed to cover in six of their last eight games as a road favorite, six of their last eight as a double-digit favorite, six of their last seven January contests and eight of their last nine against opponents with a losing record.
This line is a joke, guys – an complete JOKE! Throw in the fact that ALL the pressure is on the defending champs (who have significant injures on both sides of the ball), while the Seahawks can play carefree (because they have absolutely nothing to lose), and I’m all over the ‘dog here. And considering the SU winner covered the pointspread in each of Seattle’s 16 regular-season games, I’m going out on a limb and calling for the outright upset: Seahawks 27, Saints 24.
Executive
250% Pitt -4
250% Indy -2.5
Power Play Wins
Tennessee +1