Matt Farrgo
10* Cincinnati Bengals
Scott Spreitzer
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR!
NEW YORK JETS vs CINCINNATI BENGALS
TAKE: CINCINNATI BENGALS
I'm laying the points with the Bengals on Saturday afternoon, my NFL Game of the Year. Most figured Cincinnati would "mail it in" last week and they did. And thanks to the fact that they did struggle a bit down the stretch, I feel we're now getting great value with the much better team, which also happens to be at home. Cincinnati played with very little intensity and desire on both sides of the football last week. Subsequently, Jets' QB Mark Sanchez felt no pressure. This week's tilt will be much different. First of all, Sanchez has committed 29 turnovers this season, including fumbles and interceptions. He will be facing arguably, the best CB tandem in the league when Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph take the field. The pair were the first Cinci corners to each tally at least six interceptions in 24-years. They must be licking their chops to get this one started. The defensive line, and the stop-unit in general improved greatly over last season. They own the linebackers to take Sanchez' security blanket, TE Dustin Keller out of this game. And of course, the corners should have little trouble with Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards. The defensive line has done a great job at stuffing the run this season, and the unit received good news with the injury update on Domata Peko, who expects to start and play at 100%. With the other matchup advantages on this side of the ball, I am just as high on Cinci whether Peko plays or not. I truly expect the Jets' offense, behind the direction of the ridiculously turnover-prone rookie QB to have a tough time topping 10-points this week. Let's not forget that before the Colts and Bengals "laid down" for the Jets, the offense scored a grand total of just 83-points in their previous five games, for an average of 16.6 ppg. 26 of those points came against the hapless Buccaneer defense. You want a true read of this offense? Just take a look at the last time they played against a team that cared. That was three games ago, a 10-7 loss to Atlanta. The Jets couldn't muster a running game (3 yards per carry) and scored just seven points on a 65-yard TD, thanks to blown covereage by the Falcon defense. Sanchez finished that game with 1 TD, 3 INTs, and a passer rating of 49.7. Cincinnati's offense fooled many this season. Most were expecting a return to a high-flying, pass-happy attack. But they showed great balance, thanks in part to a strong run-blocking offensive line. The unit started 15 games together this season, and allowed 22 fewer sacks this season than they did in 2008, besides opening up consistent holes for the running game. Yes, I know the Jets' run defense owns superb numbers. But I don't believe they'll sustain the energy needed to overcome what I expect to be a mistake-filled contest by their offense. And which QB do you think is better prepared to handle blitz-schemes? Mark "INT waiting to happen" Sanchez? Or, the experienced Carson Palmer? I know who I want in a game with a line so short. Cincinnati is on a 7-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record. And NFL teams, in a line range that includes this number, and with a win percentage of .600 to .750 are 27-6, ATS, in revenge of a loss of 14 or more points. That's a combined, 34-7 situation. The matchups all side with Cinci. The QB situation is a huge advantage for the Bengals, and the "techs" are the icing on the cake. I'm laying the points with the Bengals, my NFL Game of the Year.
Tony George
1 Unit Jets. +2.5
BONUS PLAY - 2 Team 6 point teaser. Tease NY to +8.5 and tease Philly to +10 and play a half unit, 1 unit max.
Tim Trushel
Bengals
Inside Corner
2 units Cincy/NYJ Over 33.5
4 units New England -3.5
Steven Budin
100 DIME RELEASE
Cincinnati on the MONEY LINE
This play, as you can see, is a MONEYLINE release. Right now, Cincinnati is anywhere from -135 to -140 on the moneyline offshore and in Vegas. So, betting the Bengals at these prices would be no different than betting a low-priced favorite in baseball.
Also, consider why this is such a typical wiseguy move: The pointspread for this game has been floating between 2 1/2 and 3 all week. Typically, the home favorite in these cases will settle at 3 by kickoff and most local bookies will go ahead and price it at -3 anyway. And thus smart players would then buy down the 1/2 point to 2 1/2 - which is what I would obviously recommend as well - at a price of -130 (which is what the going rate is nowadays when you're buying around the number 3 offshore and in Vegas and sportsbooks continue to squeeze you). But rather than buying insurance at -130 and worrying about the pointspread at all, these sharps are instead simply taking Cincinnati on the Moneyline at a slightly bigger price of approximately -135 or -140.
Here's another way of looking at it: Instead of buying down the half-point at a cost of -130 and still laying 2 1/2 points on the Bengals, they are getting a "3-point discount," making it a pick-em game at a cost of about -135 or -140. It's really an incredibly simple and effective strategy.
BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT!
Eagles
10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH!
Bengals
NICK PARSONS
10* "BOOKIEKILLER" *Signature Top Play*
Bengals
LARRY NESS
Div. GAME OF MONTH!
Eagles
10* #1 Wildcard Side
Bengals
Sirduke Sports
5* NY Jets +3
5* Philadelphia Eagles +4
BRANDON LANG
75 DIME - NEW YORK JETS - (if line is 2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and get 3. If 3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2. Line value with the underdog - get the best line possible.)
25 DIME - NEW YORK JETS MONEY LINE PLAY - This is a dangerous animal right here.
When you have the # 1 defense in the NFL and the # 1 rush attack in the NFL, I don't care who you are playing, you are going to be a tough out.
Now I know Cincinnati will put 8 in the box and do everything they can to stop the run, and force Sanchez to throw and beat them but that isn't where the Jets are going to win the game.
They win the game because of the true weakness of this Bengals team and has been their weakness all year is their offense.
The warning signs have been there all year long but down the stretch when your offense is supposed to be peaking heading into the playoffs, this Bengals team has gotten worse.
There was the 90 yards passing at Minnesota 4 weeks ago, and at home 2 weeks ago they were held to 10 points for 58 minutes by the Chiefs, who just so happen to have the 3rd worst defense in the NFL.
Over their last 9 games the Bengals have reached 20 points or more twice and they have covered only 1 of their last 7 games right along with it.
Of all the teams in the playoffs Cincinnati could have faced they draw the one team they match up the worst against.
Am I concerned about young Mr. Mark "Interception" Sanchez on the road in his first playoff game? Absolutely, but I also trust the offensive coordinator Schottenheimer to put him in situations to not lose the game instead have to win it.
Playoff football is about running the football and playing defense. Two the things the Jets do better than any team in the NFL.
This is one of the best offensive lines in football and they dominated the trenches a week ago and I don't see anything to lead me to believe they won't dominate it again.
I don't see any changes the Bengals can make offensively which leads me to believe they can execute any better at home against the #1 ranked defense in the NFL.
Cincinnati has scored the least amount of points than any team in the playoffs, and quite frankly, I don't trust the 24th ranked offense against the # 1 defense in the NFL and I don't care where they play.
I will gladly grab the Jets plus the points and I will money line the Jets as well as they handle the Bengals again and move on to round two.
75 dime JETS, and 25 dime JETS MONEY LINE
25 DIME - HOFSTRA PRIDE -One thing you must understand about Hofstra is the fact they struggle against teams with a big presence.
Old Dominion doesn't pose that problem and this is a great spot for Hofstra to get the cover against a team they really match up against.
They are off a solid win and cover over Towson State winning by 17 as a 11 point favorite and now take to the road where they are 3-1-1 ATS this year.
Last meeting between these two was a one point game last March, and I firmly believe the rematch will be much of the same, a close hard fought battle that will be a single digit game throughout.
ODU is having a great year at 11-4 but they have covered just 1 of their last 4 ballgames and asking them to cover this double digit number is a bit to much today
Underground Sports Connection
100* Dallas/Philly Under 45
DOUBLE DRAGON
HYDRA
EAGLES +4
HYDRA
PACKERS -PK
REGULARS
BENGALS -PK (-130)
PATRIOTS -3 (-125)
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
5* Minnesota Wild +153
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wiseguy Cowboys/Eagles Wild Card TOTAL OF THE YEAR UNDER 45
The first two meetings between these teams went well UNDER the number. With a total of 49 in their first meeting, Dallas won 20-16 for 36 combined points. They dropped the total to 47 points in their second meeting, and Dallas won 24-0. Now, they dropped the total 2 more points, yet it's still too low. Dallas is playing tremendous defense, giving up just 17 points in their last 3 games combined for an average of 5.7 points/game. With the Eagles' offensive line beat up, they won't be able to do anything offensively in this game either. But we do expect their defense to rise to the occasion and make up for it. Dallas has gotten their running game going the last few weeks, and the Eagles know they have to get their running game going Sunday to try and keep Dallas off balance. Otherwise, the Cowboys will be able to just pin their ears back and get after McNabb all game long just like they have in the first two meetings. Dallas is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) off a division game this season. The Eagles are 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more since 1992. The UNDER is 8-1 in Dallas' last 9 games overall and they continue their stellar defense Saturday in a low-scoring defensive battle with the Eagles. Take the UNDER.
5* Wiseguy Jets/Bengals AFC Wild Card Rematch New York +3
We aren't basing this play off of what happened last week in a 37-0 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Though the Bengals played their starters, other than Cedric Benson, for the first half, they still couldn't have totally been into the game. That said, the Jets owned the Bengals when their starters were in, limiting Carson Palmer to 1-of-11 passing for 0 yards. The Bengals will have a better attitude Saturday when playing at home, and they will be focused. But they don't have what it takes to slow down the Jets. New York owns the #1 ranked defense in the league, giving up just 14.7 points/game and 252 yards/game which is far and away the best average in the league. They also own the #1 running game at 172 rushing yards/game. Having the #1 defense and the #1 rushing offense is huge in the playoffs, as we've seen in year's past. Cincinnati simply isn't the same team they were in the first half of the season. The Bengals are just 3-4 in their last 7 games, with their wins coming against the Browns, Lions and Chiefs. And even in those wins, they weren't that impressive, failing to beat any of those 3 teams by more than 10 points. Chad Johnson just got hurt last week, and he is likely to play in this game but will also likely be slowed a little. He is really their only weapon at receiver. New York is the hotter team heading into the playoffs, and Mark Sanchez isn't being asked to do too much right now. New Yorks' offensive and defensive numbers are both better than Cincinnati's, and not even home field can help the Bengals get things turned around Saturday. Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS as a favorite this season. Take the Jets and the points. (Recommend buying to +3)
4* Northern Colorado -12.5
Northern Colorado is the superior team here and should be a much heavier favorite against 4-12 Idaho State. Northern Colorado is one of the better teams that nobody knows about as they enter Saturday's game with a 14-3 record on the season. At home, NCU is 5-0 S.U. and 4-1 ATS while winning by 12.8 points/game. Idaho State is 1-10 on the road this season, losing by 12.4 points/game. Idaho State is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons. Idaho State is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days over the last 3 seasons. Northern Colorado is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. NCU is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last 2 seasons. Take Northern Colorado and lay the points.
4* St. John's +11.5
We really like this St. John's team this season as they continue going under the radar. At 10-4 this season and with 5 returning starters, this team can compete with anyone in the country on any given night. They have proven that on the road twice this season already, losing at Duke by only 9 points and losing at Georgetown by just 7. On the road this season, they are 4-1 ATS and their experience allows them to not get rattled while playing in front of hostile road crowds. It will be hostile at Louisville Saturday, but the Cardinals' players won't fully be into this game. They are much more interested in having Villanova come to their place up next on Monday, just two days away. The Red Storm are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games after a loss by 15 points or more since 1997. St. John's is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less 2 straight games since 1997. Take St. John's and the points.