Great Lakes Sports
NFL
4* Cincinnati
3* Philadelphia
College Hoops
5* GOM NOTRE DAME (GOM)
4* Ohio
4* Houston
3* Seton Hall
3* Southern Illinois
NBA
4* Orlando
3* Detroit
3* Houston
Bob Balfe
Cincinnati -2.5
The Bengals have been through a lot this season and are playing in their first playoff game in ages. Do not look at last Sunday's Game to handicap this game. Cincinnati has playing as vanilla as they could. The Jets do have a great defense, but the Bengals play good defensive ball and I just do not see Marc Sanchez as a rookie winning a big playoff game on the road. Look for the Bengals to get a big playoff win.
Ron Raymond
New Jersey -140
When NEW JERSEY team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Total is 5.0 - After a non division game - Coming off a 2 game Home stand; the Devils are 12-1-2 SU in this situation since 1996. Take New Jersey.
Tim Robbie
Jets at Bengals
Pick: Jets +3
One of the oldest axioms in football is that you have to run the ball effectively and play sound defense in order to achieve playoff success. Well, the Jets may have their warts, but they finished the regular season #1 in the league in rushing and #1 in the league in fewest points allowed. The Bengals, on the other hand, have not played particularly well down the stretch, even if you discount their lackluster effort against the Jets last week in a game that meant virtually nothing to them and everything to the Jets. I can't see the Jets going anywhere in the playoffs, but they should be able to beat Cincinnati by running the ball effectively and utilizing their blitz packages to keep Carson Palmer and company off balance.
Opposite Action Plays
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Tony George
Nebraska +8
Lots of points here as Doc Sadler will have the Huskers playing defense, allowing just 58 ppg this season. Texas AM has struggled against decent teams all year and this is a ton of points. These 2 teams split last year and both were tight games and I expect more of the same today. Play 1 Unit on Nebraska
Lenny Del Genio
Drexel -3
The Tribe of William and Mary has cashed all seven tickets as an underdog this season and is coming off a thrilling 74-73 road win over Delaware Wednesday night in overtime. The previous game saw them lose by one to UNC Wilmington. The game before that saw them win by one at Hofstra. All three games were decided in the final 17 seconds. Eventually this nonsense must come to an end and it speaks volumes that they are taking points here against an 8-8 Drexel squad. Both of these teams are 3-1 to start CAA play, which of course means that the Dragons played the more difficult non-conference schedule. Sure enough, you will find teams like Kentucky and Villanova on their schedule while no such quality foes exist on the William and Mary resume. That pretty much explains away the discrepency in records right there. The Tribe is 0-6 ATS off a conference win the last two seasons while Drexel is 10-2 ATS last 12 times laying points at home. The hosts are also the superior defensive club, allowing just 59.3 PPG on this floor. Drexel is our CAA Game of the Week.
Marc Lawrence
Portland +2.5
The Pilots take on the Zags in a key West Coast Conference showdown at the Chiles Center knowing they own an 18-3 SU mark on this court the last two-plus seasons. That fits nicely into Gonzaga's 1-7 ATS mark in this series when taking the court off a SU and ATS win. So does the Zags' 2-6 ATS mark as a favorite in games off a SU underdog win. Most important, the Pilots are a 5-returning starter team playing with double revenge, losing a pair to the Zags last year by margins of 17 and 15 points. The clincher is an awesome angle from our database tells us to: Play On any sub .750 college hoops team with 5 returning starters if they were a winning team last season and are playing with revenge from a pair of losses last season. That's because these teams are 14-3-1 ATS since 2001, including 10-0-1 ATS versus and opponent with at least one loss on the season. A motivated home dog with a huge edge in experience against a ‘public’ favorite in the conference opener for both squads is our cup of tea. We recommend a 3-unit play on Portland.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Georgia Tech +7
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on Georgia Tech today:
The Blue Devils might need to see how they react to a close game because it has been a while. They’ve been in one game decided by less than nine points, and that resulted in their only loss in a game at Wisconsin. That also marked the team’s only true road game; keep in mind that Duke is 0-1 ATS on the road this season.
On the other side of the court: Georgia Tech has vastly improved after a dismal 2008-09 season.
Thanks to 6-foot-9 junior Gani Lawal and one of the nation’s top freshmen classes, Georgia Tech (11-3, 0-1) is one win shy of matching its total from last season when it won two ACC games. Despite the turnaround, the Yellow Jackets are in danger of dropping their first two league games after falling 73-66 at rival Georgia on Tuesday; however I expect a "rebound" tonight.
The Yellow Jackets will try to slow Duke with their aggressive full-court pressure.
Not only is Georgia Tech 10-2 SU its last 12 overall, it also always plays tough in front of the hometown crowd; 6-1 SU its last seven at home.
Bottom line: With "revenge" on their minds, look for GEORGIA TECH to improve to 5-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and for Duke to fall to 1-1 ATS against conference opponents.
8* GEORGIA TECH
SIXTH SENSE
Opinions
CINCINNATI -2.5 NY Jets 34
Jets destroyed Cincinnati last week 37-0 but it’s hard to determine how much emphasis can be put on that game. The Jets had everything to play for while Cincinnati did not and kept some key starters out of the game. The Jets average 4.5ypr against 4.4ypr and just 5.7yps against 6.3yps for a total of 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl. The Cincinnati offense is also below average but better. They average 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The Jets defense is superior to Cincinnati. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr, only 4.8yps against 6.2yps and 4.3yppl against 5.4yppl. While Cincinnati’s defense is above average, it is not nearly as good as the Jets. They allow 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Numbers favor the Jets by one point in this game and predict a total of 29 points. The Jets qualify in two different negative situations that play against them. Those situations are 42-15-4 and 60-21-4. It’s tough to pick Cincinnati when they are 0-7 ATS this year and the dog is now 14-2 ATS in their games this year. The Jets have their own issues on the road, however, knowing they lost both games on the road against playoff teams – New Orleans and New England. They also lost at Miami, the other decent team they played. They did defeat Houston in the first game of the season. With the value going one way and the situations going the other way, I can’t make a best bet. I think the strongest lean here is the under.
CINCINNATI 16 NY JETS 13
DALLAS -3.5 Philadelphia 45
Dallas defeated Philly last week 24-0 and while the other two rematches this week saw teams playing for nothing last week, the game last week had strong meaning for both teams. Dallas was looking for a home game while Philly was playing for home field advantage and a bye week. The fact Dallas defeated Philly so strongly cannot go unnoticed. They out rushed them 5.6ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed them 8.2yps to 4.8yps and overall 7.0yppl to 4.6yppl. Dallas also defeated Philly earlier in the year as well. Cowboys average 6.2yppl against 5.3yppl while Philly averages 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. Dallas allows 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl while Philly allows 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Dallas does qualify in a negative playoff situation, which is 60-21-4 and plays against them here. But, they also qualify in a fundamental playoff situation, which is 56-22-3. Numbers favor Dallas by two points and predict about 44 points. Both games have gone under this year and this should be another low scoring game. Philly is 0-4 SU against playoff teams this year (Dallas twice, NO & SD). Cowboys are playing better ball but more importantly, Philly had everything to lose last week and they didn’t show up. Can’t see why it will be much different this week. DALLAS 24 PHILADELPHIA 20
The Duke's Sports
Wisconsin (+1) for 2.5 Units
We realize that Purdue has dominated this series to the tune of 7-0 ATS; however, the undefeated Boilermakers are in position today to notch their first loss. The Badgers are coming off a hard fought loss at Michigan State and have shown a tendency to bounce back off losses under HC Ryan at 4-0 ATS. And keep in mind that the Badgers defeated two top 20 teams this season at the Kohl Center, including then #6 Duke. Moreover, the Badgers are a sweet 129-10 SU at the Kohl Center under Ryan. Wisconsin is a dangerous small home dog at 8-2-1 ATS; on the other hand, Purdue has had trouble in the small road favorite role at 2-5 ATS. And this is the first time that Purdue is a favorite at Wisconsin in over a decade. Wisconsin the call.
Alatex
Superplay Philly +4
Superplay UTEP Over 146
Wayne Root
Vegas Legend - Bengals
Billionaire - Cowboys
Vegas Legand - Alabama
Millionaire - New Mexico
Billionaire - Texas A&M
Al DeMarco
15 Dime - Dallas Cowboys
Two things you've heard all week leading into this game, both myths that I want to debunk right now. First, it's not that hard for a team to beat another three times in one season. The possibility has arisen 19 times since 1970, and there have been 12 sweeps, including the Steelers of the Ravens last year.
The other myth-buster: Don't buy into the fact that the Eagles didn't give their all last week at Dallas with one of the reasons being they didn't want to "tip their hand" because of an eventual rematch with the Cowboys in the postseason. Are you kidding me? I'm based out of Philly and trust me, this wasn't like Cincinnati rolling over and playing dead at New York, or Indianapolis throwing in the towel in its final two games. The Birds had plenty to play for last week, mainly the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. Instead, by losing 24-0 in a game in which they were outplayed from start to finish, they got the absolute toughest road to reach the Super Bowl as it down will potentially take them through not only Dallas but Minnesota, too.
As for the games on the field, the Cowboys defense dominated in a 20-16 upset at Philadelphia and last Sunday's 24-0 shutout at home, sacking Donovan McNabb eight times and completely shutting down the Eagles' ground game. Do you know Philly had 21 offensive series in those two games but McNabb's attack managed just one touchdown? Not surprising when you consider receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Macklin were held to a combined 11 catches in those contests.
On offense, Dallas had its way against Philadelphia's defense. Tony Romo passed for over 300 yards in both contests and the Eagles' pass rush rarely put significant pressure on him. Philly's secondary has had problems covering tight ends the past three years; nothing changed this season against Jay Witten. And they had no answer for Miles Austin, either. On the ground, the 1-2 punch of Miles Barber and Felix Jones, alternating liberally, churned out 179 of the Pokes' 474 total yards last week.
Will this be a closer game than last week's shutout? Absolutely. The Eagles will give their all, but it won't be enough as Dallas rolls 31-24.
Strategy Note:
You've heard me discuss this many times on TV and radio; I only believe in buying half points when the number is around 3, 4 or 7. This price is floating between 3 1/2 and 4, so go ahead and buy down the half-point in either case on Dallas.
Jeff Benton
25 Dime: COWBOYS
If this number is at 3 1/2, buy the half-point and grab Dallas at -3. Do NOT get beat by the hook in this contest!