Scott Delaney
40-Dime DALLAS COWBOYS
I look at this game and realize that Dallas has two significant advantages, and that doesn't include the 100,000 maniacs who will be cheering for them, while frustrating and drowning out quarterback Donovan McNabb’s signals for Philadelphia.
Stephen Nover
25 Dime - Cincinnati Bengals
Steve Duemig
25 Dime - Bengals
The Boooj
50 units Illinois -6.5 over Memphis
20 units Charlotte -5.5 over Indiana
NHL PRO PICKS
Colorado +142
Anaheim +124
Calgary +157
Detroit +147
BIG AL
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the New York Jets. The Jets won their last two games of the regular season to get into the playoffs. But both of their opponents -- the Colts in Game 15, and the Bengals last week -- "mailed it in," so to speak. Thus, it's awfully hard to give New York much credit for its victories, since if either, or both of its opponents had put forth a 100% effort, the Jets likely would be sitting at home this weekend. Besides having two teams "lie down" for them, the Jets also had the benefit this season of playing a less-than-impressive schedule. Of New York's 14 other games, only three were against playoff teams (New England (twice) and New Orleans). New York was 1-2 SU/ATS in those games, including an 0-2 SU/ATS record on the road. In contrast, Cincinnati played games against Green Bay, Baltimore (twice), Minnesota, and San Diego. And, in those five games, the Bengals were an impressive 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, even though four of them were on the road, and also despite the fact Cincy was an underdog in all five games. Last week, the Jets shut out the Bengals 37-0, but NFL teams have covered just one of 12 (8 percent) in the playoffs over the past 29 seasons, if they i) won their previous game by more than 28 points; ii) and held their previous foe to three points or less; and iii) are not favored by more than seven in their current game. Look for the Bengals to ground the Flyboys. Take Cincinnati minus the points.
At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles plus the points over Dallas. After winning six straight games, the Eagles certainly laid an egg last Sunday when they were blanked 24-0 by the Cowboys. But perhaps no team has been better over the years than Philadelphia in rebounding off a loss, as the Eagles are a solid 59-33 ATS the past 15 seasons following a defeat (including 3-0 in the Playoffs), and 31-7 ATS off a loss since 1997 if they failed to cover by more than seven points in their previous game. Also, Dallas won 17-0 at Washington the week prior to its 24-0 whitewash of Philly. But NFL teams are terrible against the spread (54-109 ATS) when priced from -11 to +4.5 points, if they held their last two opponents to less than 10 points, and scored at least 17 in their most recent game. Take the Eagles + the points.
Kelso
15 units Baylor -7.5
5 units Georgetown -4.5
4 units Loy Chic +3
3 units Dayton -12
3 units Clemson -9.5
Executive
600% Geo.Mason -5
300% Purdue -1
300% Kansas St +5
300% New Mexico -5
O.C. Dooley
2 Units Jets / Bengals Under 34
The bottom line is that this contest is the total “opposite” of what we can expect throughout the NFL playoff season which should be thrilling to watch. 2009 certainly was the year of the passer which included a 503-yard performance by Ben Roethlisberger in week-fifteen during a 37-36 shootout between the Steelers and Packers. One could make a strong argument that the main reason the defending Super Bowl champions are out of this year’s postseason is due to a severe lack of defense and Pittsburgh’s overall switch from “smashmouth” football to an offensive reliance on the aerial game. I want all of you to consider that in 2009 a record 10 different quarterbacks had at least 4,000 passing yards thus eclipsing the mark of seven set back in 2007. Add to the fact that most of the top-seeded entrants either play inside a domed facility (Colts, Saints, Vikings, Cardinals) or in a warm weather location (Chargers) this postseason is shaping up to be a passers paradise. We even have a Wildcard game this evening which will be played in a domed facility but that certainly is NOT the case in the opener of the NFL Wildcard weekend. The high temperature in Cincinnati today will be 23-degrees and that mark will plummet quickly since the game time kickoff (4:35 local) is on the brink of sunset so it will be frigid. I am sure most of you reading this analysis are aware that the Jets led the entire NFL this season in both scoring defense (14.8 ppg allowed) and total defense (252 ypg permitted). Considering that Cincinnati’s offense has produced the FEWEST combined points of any team participating in the postseason, odds are strong that New York’s stop-unit is going to once again have a big statistical day. On the other side of the football the Jets have a “smashmouth” style of attack which is reflective by their league-leading average of 172 yards per game on the ground. It certainly would be in New York’s best interest to pound the football on the ground so that mistake-prone rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez (20 interceptions) is not forced to make many critical plays. Of course the big story in Cincinnati this season surrounded the tragic death of wide receiver Chris Henry who at the time of his untimely passing was actually on the injured list. To make a long story short the Bengals aerial game has suffered ever since Henry left the starting lineup as the threat he created downfield has been sorely missed as opponents load up on controlling star Chad Ochocinco. Just like today’s opponent the Bengals have leaned heavily on their running game which was bolstered with the acquisition of veteran Larry Johnson who has averaged a healthy 4.4 yards per carry ever since being ejected from Kansas City’s roster. In the regular season finale Cincinnati star rusher Cedric Benson (career high 1,251 yards gained) was rested to he comes into this particular contest refreshed. Benson certainly has been a workhorse averaging 23.2 carries per contest which is the most in the entire NFL. What makes Benson’s total rush yards so incredible is that he actually missed 3 games due to injury and as just mentioned sat out last Sunday Night. While the Jets top-rated defense has received much national attention Cincinnati very quietly finished with a #4 NFL ranking in that department. That ranking could have even been higher if you throw out the 37 points given up in last Sunday evening’s debacle where the offense was SHUTOUT. You will notice this afternoon that Cincinnati’s stop-unit is not afraid to employ what they call a “gap” BLITZ and at one stage this campaign the Bengals actually 8 consecutive teams below 100 yards rushing. With both teams loaded with defensive talent the oddsmakers have “low balled” today’s total in an effort to create some “over” wagering but I for one am not biting. From the database here is a approaching 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (52-24 past decade) which takes winning teams like the Jets after beating the spread by at least 21 points in the prior game UNDER the total. Meanwhile during the long tenure of current Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis, his teams have gone a resounding 11-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread six times in a 7-game span. Lewis originally made a name for himself as a DEFENSIVE coordinator at Baltimore during the days when the Ravens had a record-setting stop unit. In the past two years Cincinnati has gone a staggering 7-0 UNDER when cast as a home favorite. Do I hear 8-0 UNDER anyone?!
Gamebreakers
Philadelphia +4 & Under 45
I'm taking Philly getting more than a FG and Under a big total of 45. I expect a close game and a better defensive effort from the Eagles this week. last week Philly was playing for positioning and I'm always surprised at how poorly that tends to work out for teams. Aside from what's on the field I like their edge in coaching and I think they will be ready Saturday. As for the Under, I like both defenses and the potential for this one to have 41 points or less scored. Take Philly +4 and Under 45, both for 3* Plays.
Cincinnati -128
I like the Bengals to get the job done at home. Last game was misleading and the intensity wasn't there for ther Bengals. That gives us added line value and I'll back the team with the better QB at home. I believe Jets turnovers will be the difference and one of my all-time favorite Wild-Card angles indicates a play on the Bengals. I like the Bengals to cover the -2.5 but I'm going to grab the moneyline at a very reasonable -128 for added insurance. If you don't have that same option, lay the -2.5. Take Cincinnati for a 4* Play.
Mike Lineback
4* Dallas Cowboys -3 -135 (1/2 pt buy)
4.5* NFL Teaser 7 pts Dallas Cowboys +3.5 & Baltimore Ravens +10.5
Opinions
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Atlanta/Orlando Magic UNDER 196
Indiana Pacers +8.5
Indiana/Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 206
PPP
3% NY Jets
3% Dallas
Trey Scott
*200 Duke -7
*200 Louisiana Tech PICK
*200 Illinois -6
David Banks
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Over 33.5
Philadelphia +3.5
Over 45
Charlotte Bobcats -5
Chicago Bulls -8.5
Kelso
50 units S Alabama -7
50 units Loy.Mariemont -2.5