DAVID MALINSKY
4* ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE UNDER 47.5
Scoring is up significantly in the SEC this autumn, which is what happens when you have explosive talents like Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett, and defenses that are not quite as good as recent seasons. And when scoring is up, Totals get raised. Hence, why an Alabama/Mississippi State matchup is now priced at 47.5, instead of LY’s 43.5, a game that only fell 34. But while the overall league scoring is an across the board issue in terms of setting Totals, it does not impact this matchup.
A little over a year ago we wrote an NCAA ”VERITIES & BALDERDASH” column about the positive things that Dan Mullen was going at Mississippi State, focusing on developing the talent on hand first, and getting in his full playbook second. His Bulldogs ran the ball, worked the field position, and played hard on defense in order to compete. And in Year #2 it is no different. Yes, he tried to open up in that first league contest vs. Auburn, putting the ball in the air 35 times, but the passing game was a failure, and they fell 17-14 in Starkville. He learned his lesson there – since then in four SEC games it has been 176 runs vs. only 60 passes, and in his two tries as a conference road dog it has been 93 runs to just 27 passes. Naturally these ratio’s keep the game tempos and the scores down, and the five State SEC games have played to a 32.2 average, more than two full TD’s below this Total.
Does that change here? That is most unlikely. Having had last week off Mullen comes in with a defense that is fresh and up to this challenge, so the best way to compete is to run and play field position early, and avoid the kind of mistakes that can give away easy points. It was a game plan that worked in that road upset of Florida (49 runs, nine passes, no TO’s), and we expect to see the same blue print. Nick Saban, of course, does not mind that tempo himself, and with his defense having allowed only one TD in 16 quarters on this field (and just 22 points), he does not have an early urgency to attack. He will also be confident to work field position, daring the Bulldog offense to open up, and that makes the early stages here checkers instead of chess, a pace that we do not believe ever will pick up.
Ben Burns
Notre Dame +4
Texas +4
Duke +3
California +17
San Diego St +26
Florida -7
Dr. Bob
Cincinnati (+5 1/2) 3-Stars at +3.5 or more, 2-Stars at +3.
Auburn (-8) 2-Stars at -10 or less.
Florida Atlantic (-10) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -12.
Strong Opinions
BYU (-6 1/2) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
ir Force (-32) Strong Opinion at -34 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -31.
Florida Atlantic-UL Lafayette UNDER (55) Strong Opinion Under.
Scott Spreitzer
CFB GAME OF THE YEAR!
KANSAS STATE / MISSOURI
PLAY MISSOURI
I'm laying the points with Missouri on Saturday. Several weeks ago Kansas State hosted Nebraska on a Thursday night in Manhattan. I mentioned in my write-up that the difference in team-speed and athleticism were night and day. I predicted Nebraska would have no trouble at all with a slow Kansas State offense and defense. The Huskers won, 48-13. The slow Wildcat defense was also ripped for 47 points and 683 total yards on 9 yards per play. And another comparable offense, Oklahoma State, was quite sluggish, but still piled-up over 500 yards of offense against Bill Snyder's troops. After beating a self-destructing Texas team last week, the 'Cats must go on the road against the quickest opponent (on both sides of the ball) that they have faced since the Nebraska game. RB Daniel Thomas hasn't been getting the holes he got during non-conference play and QB Carson Coffman is a sack waiting to happen against defenses like Missouri's. In fact, Snyder decided to change things up a bit and started Colin Klein under center a week ago. The 6'5 sophomore adds more mobility than Coffman, but even after the Texas game, Klein has thrown a grand total of just nine passes. There's really nothing left up Snyder's sleeve. Start Coffman and you have a hampered running attack and a stationary QB who'll be under constant pressure. Start Klein and you have a QB who can move better, but the passing game suffers dramatically. In either case, the 'Cats are truly hamstrung against Missouri's speed. It's a Tiger team that suffered a hangover against Nebraska after the huge win over Oklahoma. Then last week, they looked drained in Lubbock after having their hopes of a perfect season dashed the previous week in Lincoln. The Tigers are finally back home in Columbia, and believe it or not, it's their final home game of the season. There's been some talk about "what's wrong with QB Blaine Gabbert?" Nothing's wrong. He just ran into two very tough situations. He gets "just what the doctor ordered" this week when he faces the nation's 102nd rank defense overall, allowing 435.7 yards per game. It's a balanced K-State defense. They're weak against both the run and the pass, allowing 218.7 yards rushing per game (113th) and 217 yards passing per game (63rd). K-State allows a whopping 5.6 yards per carry, which is dead last, 120th in the nation! They're tied for 102nd in sacks with just 13 on the season. And K-State ranks 93rd in third down conversion percentage allowed. Let's also remember that Nebraska and Texas Tech have the speed to cover Mizzou receivers man-to-man. Kansas State, as explained above, does not. I expect a huge game from Gabbert and star WR T.J. Moe, who goes unmatched down field in this one. Making matters even tougher on K-State is the arm injury to LB Alex Hrebec. With 73 tackles on the season, Hrebec is the team's leading tackler. He's not expected to start this week. Even if he does, he's much less than 100% healthy. Again, this is just the opponent Mizzou needs to get right back on track and I believe they will in a big way. Missouri is a healthy 10-2, 83% ATS at home when they're off an upset loss as a favorite. Mizzou has scored 87 combined points in their last two home games against K-State, winning by 26 and 17. And they have won four in a row in the series, by an average score of 42-22. K-State has won just 4 of their last 26 road games, and they have dropped seven straight against ranked teams. Just like I said when they hosted Nebraska, Kansas State is "fools gold" in my opinion. They look strong against sluggish, mistake-prone teams at home. But they'll take it on the chin against the elite teams on their schedule. I'm laying the points with Missouri, my CFB Game of the Year.
Larry Ness
Legend Play - Missouri
Joe Gaffney
Underdog Outright GOY
Penn St +18
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket Missouri
S Carolina
Mississippi St
Colorado St
N Carolina Over
ETHAN LAW
(2%) FRESNO STATE +8.5
(2%) UTEP +28.5
(2%) MEMPHIS +17
CONFIRMED SATURDAY MANHATTAN SYNDICATE SELECTIONS
$45,000 WAGER on SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI +10
$40,000 WAGER on WESTERN KENTUCKY +12
ASA
5* Oklahoma -14
4* Missouri
3* Baylor
3* Kentucky
JIm Feist
Big 10 GOY - Ohio State
Mississippi St
North Carolina
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Georgia
Marshall
Missouri
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
MMA GOM - Nate Marquadt
MMA 3 Pack- Hughes, Machida, Storiopolous
Purelock
Florida Atlantic -8.5
Dave Malinsky
6* Kentucky
GOLD SHEET LTS
1½ Units KENTUCKY -14½
1 Unit NORTHWESTERN +9½
1 Unit BAYLOR +3
1 Unit Mississippi St.-Alabama UNDER 47
1 Unit COLORADO STATE +6½
1 Unit STANFORD -5½
1 Unit OREGON STATE -23½
Don Wallace Sports
3* Oklahoma -15
3* Ohio St. -18
3* Texas +5.5
3* Arkansas -28.5