BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 CFB DOG OF THE YEAR on NC State +8.5
NC State is very dangerous in the role of the underdog. They are dangerous in the second half of the season as they continue playing their best football in November. The Wolf Pack are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NC State is 6-0 ATS after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Wolf Pack are showing unbelievable value here Saturday, so much that we believe they represent the best underdog for the entire 2009 college football season. Russell Wilson is the real deal, throwing for 2,351 yards and 24 touchdowns compared to 9 interceptions this season. NC State scores 33.7 points/game and with this offense, they are never out of a ball game. Clemson allows a ridiculous 30.3 points/game on the road this season, so they'll have their hands full to say the least with this Wolf Pack offense. Clemson has played 3 road games this season, and all 3 have been decided by exactly 3 points with losses to Maryland and Georgia Tech and an overtime win against Miami. We see this game being decided by less than a touchdown, with NC State likely pulling off the upset. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Take NC State and the points.
4* on Houston -4.5
Houston should be a much heavier favorite Saturday as they travel to Central Florida. The Cougars are 8-1 this season, they have the best offense in the country behind Heisman Candidate Case Keenum. UCF is just 5-4 this season, scoring a mere 21.8 points/game. They don't have the offense to keep up with a Houston team putting up 42.1 points/game and 578 yards/game of total offense. Houston has beaten some very good teams on the road this year, winning at Oklahoma State, at Mississippi State and at Tulsa. Those 3 teams are all better than UCF, and when you throw in their win over Texas Tech it's clear that the Cougars are the real deal. UCF is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. But the best trend of all is that UCF is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992. The Knights gave up 470 passing yards to Colt McCoy and the Longhorns last week, and now they have to deal with the best passing team in the nation. This game has blowout written all over it. Take Houston and lay the points.
4* on Kentucky -3
Kentucky is playing their best football of the season right now, winning 3 of their last 4 games. They sit at 5-4 heading into this game with Vanderbilt, and they certainly want to clinch a bowl berth with a win Saturday. Kentucky watched Vanderbilt clinch a bowl game on their home turf last year in a 24-31 loss, and we feel they are highly motivated to return the favor this time around. Vandy has lost 6 straight games and have nothing to play for. Kentucky has played some of their best football on the road this year, going 2-1 away from home and allowing 14.0 points/game. Against a Vanderbilt offense that averages just 16.7 points/game, the Wildcats should shut 'em down Saturday. Vanderbilt is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take Kentucky and lay the points.
4* on Southern Miss -3
Southern Miss should roll right over Marshall this weekend on the road. The Golden Eagles are a bit underrated right now after several brutal losses to fall to 5-4 this season. They have 3 losses by 7 points or less this season. They are 0-4 on the road, and we cannot see them losing 5 straight away from home because of the talent this team possesses. The road team has won 3 of the last 4 in this series, with Southern Miss winning each of their last 2 trips to Marshall. Southern Miss has had 2 weeks to steam over their loss to an 8-1 Houston team on the road last time out, losing 43-50 on a touchdown in the final 20 seconds. They will use this bye week to get ready for an overmatched Marshall team. Southern Miss scored 33.9 points/game and puts up 431 total yards/game. Compare that to Marshall, who is mustering just 20.8 points/game and 326 total yards/game and you can see why this is such a mismatch Saturday. The Golden Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Take Southern Miss and lay the points.
4* on Georgia -4
This is a very generous line Saturday as the Bulldogs host the Auburn Tigers. Georgia has won the last 3 in this rivalry, and you can chalk up a 4th straight Saturday. They beat the Tigers at home in 2007 by a final of 45-20 as mere 2.5-point favorites. Auburn's defense is the reason they cannot compete at Georgia this weekend. The Tigers have allowed 30 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games, and 20 or more in all 8. They even gave up 31 points to Furman last week. Georgia's defense has been stout, especially at home where they are giving up just 18.5 points/game and have posted a 3-1 home record. Auburn has been blown out in their last 2 road games, losing 23-44 at Arkansas and losing 10-31 at LSU. Georgia won at Arkansas 52-41 and lost to LSU at home 13-20 to give you a couple common opponents, which clearly gives the Bulldogs the edge. The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take Georgia and lay the points.
BEN BURNS
*10 GOY
I'm laying the points with USC. This selection has several similarities to a basketball selection that I made last Saturday. Like the Trojans are this afternoon, the team which I was betting on (Dallas) was laying points at home. The Mavericks entered that game (vs. Toronto on 11/7) having recently been defeated by the Hornets. On the other hand, the Raptors entered that game having just blown out those very same Hornets. I began that writeup by saying: "If the Hornets beat the Mavericks and the Raptors beat the Hornets, then shouldn't the Raptors be able to beat the Mavs? Not necessarily. In fact, that type of logic doesn't hold much weight when it comes to handicapping NBA games. Situations and matchups are entirely different for each individual game. In tonight's case, I believe those matchups will favor the Mavs. Laying -7.5 or -8 points, Dallas would go on to win that game by a score of 129-101. The Mavs had a season high in points and their 62.4% shooting percentage was the highest by a Raptor opponent in more than six years. The situation sets up similarly as the Trojans recently lost badly to the Oregon Ducks while the Cardinal just thumped those very same Ducks. Many of the betting public are likely going to be thinking. "Well, if Stanford can beat Oregon and Oregon can beat USC..." As we saw in the above basketball example (and numerous examples on the gridiron every week) that type of logic doesn't always work out too well. Many of you know that I had a big play on Stanford last week, so I certainly respect the Cardinal. Give them credit for playing a great game. However, that situation set up very nicely for them. The Cardinal, who were coming off a bye and in a big "revenge spot," were playing at home and they caught Oregon coming off a huge win, in a "letdown" spot. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. This time, its the Cardinal playing on the road and in a potential letdown spot, having just cracked the Top 25 for the first time since 2001. Should Stanford lack the intensity it brought to last week's game, the Trojans aren't likely to show any mercy. They certainly won't take the Cardinal for granted. Not only did the Trojans see what Stanford just did to Oregon but Pete Carroll will make sure they ware well aware that Stanford beat them here two seasons ago - one of the bigger upsets in college football history. I already said that I respect the Cardinal. They've got a very good quarterback and they're having a strong season. The offense is off a very impressive outing. Still, the defense played poorly (note that Clinton Snyder, the team's leading tackler was recently lost for the season) giving up 570 yards and 42 points and the Trojans bring an entirely different type of athlete to the table. Even in a "down year," they're fully loaded with talent. They know that they'll start to look a whole lot better if they can blow out the Cardinal, the team which just handed "mighty" Oregon its first Pac-10 loss. The Cardinal don't have much speed on defense and I expect that to prove to be their downfall as the game progresses. Last week's results (Stanford's big win and the fact that USC won but didn't cover at ASU) and the fact that everyone still remembers Stanford's big win here have helped to keep this line relatively low. Keep in mind that the Trojans were laying -23.5 points at Stanford last season (they won by 22) and that they were laying a whopping -39 points when the teams played here in 2007. Looking back further and we find that the Trojans were laying a minimum of -19.5 points in each of the last seven meetings. They won six of those games with five of the victories coming by greater than three touchdowns. Despite failing to cover last week, the Trojans are still 5-3 ATS (8-0 SU) in November the past few seasons. Looking back further and we find them at 14-6 ATS and 20-0 SU their last 20 games played in November. Clearly, this is a team that has enjoyed success at this time of the year. While last week's win may not have been impressive to many, I like the fact that USC bounced back with a win and that the Trojans did it with defense. I believe that its the type of win they can build momentum from. The Cardinal did the Trojans a huge favor last week as USC now has a shot at the Pac-10 title again. As Pete Carroll reminded the media after last week's win: "You guys have amnesia. Every year it ain't over till it's over. It's a hard conference. It ain't over yet." I believe the line is generously low and I expect the Trojans to build off last week's victory by delivering a convincing double-digit victory. *10 GOY
Royal Sports
10* Georgia Tech
9* Florida St.
Sammy Jankus
I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
3* MICHIGAN +9.5
Wolverines head coach Rich Rodriguez is in BIG TROUBLE. After choking away a 4-0 start to check in at 5-5 today, Michigan MUST WIN here or – because they don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of beating Ohio State next week in their season-ender – they’ll miss out on a bowl bid for the second straight year! The UM athletic director is pleading for patience from Maize-and-Blue fans but to blow a shot at a bowl game after reaching postseason play for 33 consecutive years… well, it’s time to say, “enough is enough” and DEMAND an immediate change. Wisconsin will physically overpower the fading visitors today and force Rich Rod to slink out of Madison in a desperate attempt to avoid the resulting media firestorm. I’m ALL OVER the Badgers to whip the Wolverines by 3 TD’s – so your play (and I want to apologize for doing this to you) is on MICHIGAN.
Dr Bob is doing well in hoops but I havent seen them posted here. Can you post his basketball plays?
DR BOB
Illinois (-4) 2-Stars at -6 or less, 3-Stars at -3 or less.
Nebraska (-3 1/2) 3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars up to -6 1/2.
Nevada (-7) 2-Stars at -7 or less.
Oregon State (-12) 3-Stars at -13 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -14.
Oklahoma State (-4) 2-Stars at -5 or less, 3-Stars at -3.
Middle Tennessee St (-12 1/2) 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars up to -15.Strong Opinions
South Florida (+2 1/2) Strong Opinion at +1 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +3 at -112 odds or better.
UAB (-1) Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or better.
TCU (-19 1/2) Strong Opinion at -20 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -18 or less.
Dr Bob is doing well in hoops but I havent seen them posted here. Can you post his basketball plays?
If I see them I will post them,everything I run across I post.
Lenny Stevens
20* Northwestern
20* Oregon
10* Memphis
10* SMU
10* Miss St
Kelso
100 Units UCLA
15 Units Georgia Tech
5 Units Ohio State
4 Units Colorado
3 Units South Carolina
3 Units San Diego State
ATS LOCK CLUB AND TOTALS
10 Units Okla.St -4
8 Units Oregon -17.5
7 Units Wisc -8.5
6 Units Utah +20
5 Units BC -4
5 Units Stan+11
7 Units MSU/Pur Over 53
6 Units Ari/Cal Under 55.5
5 Units Clem/NC St Over 56
4 Units Miss/K St Under 51
Kiki Sports
3* GOY Mississippi St
National Sports Service
4* Utah +20
3* BC -4.5
3* Pitt -7.5
3* Miami -3
3* Arkansas -14
Scott Rickenbach
Miami FL at North Carolina
Prediction: 10* Miami FL
We are getting line value here because of the Canes poor history at Chapel Hill. The Hurricanes 0-3 all-time in Chapel Hill but that streak is coming to an end on Saturday afternoon. Miami has a huge edge in talent as well as speed and that will be a difference maker. We are well aware of the fact that the Tar Heels defense has performed very well this season but their stats have certainly been helped by playing a number of struggling offenses. Even in their biggest win this season (over the Hokies) they took advantage of a Virginia Tech offense that has struggled often this season. We simply feel that the Tar Heels offense is incapable of stepping up and overcoming a more talented team offensively. It’s bad enough that the Tar Heels lost 16 to 3 to Virginia this season but their two games against more respectable foes is what really tells the story. The Tar Heels lost by a combined score of 54 to 34 against Georgia Tech and Florida State. Even in though the Seminoles only beat North Carolina by three points, the Noles did outgain the Heels by over 100 yards in the game. The Tar Heels, led by QB T.J. Yates, do have an issue with RB Shaun Draughn being out. Yes, Ryan Houston came in and had a big day on the ground last week but that was against Duke which is no Miami! This could put more pressure on Yates this week and he does have more int’s than td’s this season.
The Tar Heels offense has already let them down on more than one occasion. Other than blowout wins weaker foes like the Citadel, East Carolina, and Georgia Southern, the Heels averaged just 15 points per game in their other six games! Conversely, the Hurricanes offense has proven much stronger. Other than struggling against the Hokies tough defense, the Canes other eight games have seen them be quite successful as they’ve 35.5 points per game in those eight games! On the season, the Hurricanes have averaged over 400 yards per game while the Tar Heels, even with some “stat padding” against weaker foes, are still averaging less than 300 yards per game this season. Miami’s first four games this season were against ranked foes and yet the Canes won three of them. Even in a loss to Clemson this season the Hurricanes put up 37 points (it was an overtime game but only three of those points game in OT). More than half of the Canes foes this season have been held under 21 points and the Heels just won’t have the offense to keep up here.
This is a huge revenge game for the Hurricanes as they blew a 14 point lead last season in Miami and the Tar Heels got the winning touchdown with less than a minute to go. Miami head coach Randy Shannon was a player and an assistant under North Carolina head coach Butch Davis when he was at Miami. Coach Shannon certainly has the much better talent and the disparities in offense here are going to be enough to finally push Shannon’s Canes over the top in this match-up! That revenge factor is what helps insure the focus of the Canes here. Yes, if Georgia Tech beats Duke early that ends the Canes chances of getting to an ACC Title Game but this team still has it’s sights sets on a 10-win season and keeping hopes alive for a BCS Bowl. The Hurricanes have been burned by tight losses in their recent match-ups in this series and they know they have a chance to wreck North Carolina’s final home game this season. That is an opportunity that Coach Shannon and his players will not let pass them by as their get their revenge for last season’s bitter home defeat.
We are aware of the injury to LB Sean Spence of the Canes but we also feel that still having Darryl Sharpton, Colin McCarthy, and Ramon Buchanan in the linebacking group means that this trio will fare just fine against the pedestrian Tar Heels offense. Also, on the injury front, RB Javarris James is back in form and ready to roll for this game as is RB Graig Cooper who enjoyed a huge game last week as he is healthy again too. Keep in mind that RB Damien Berry has been huge in short yardage situations and has scored 6 TD’s while 6’8 TE Jimmy Graham has also been a great target to have in the red zone! The Canes have edges all over the field in this one and it will translate to a solid road win as they get their revenge in a big way. Play Miami minus the short number as a 10* Top Play selection
Evan Altemus
Arizona vs California
Oddsmakers have overvalued California all season, and the betting public hasn’t caught on yet. The Bears got totally outplayed last week against Oregon State, even before Jahvid Best went out of the game. Their defense let Sean Canfield and the Beavers offense do whatever they wanted in moving the ball up and down the field. I don’t like saying if Team A beats Team B and Team B beats Team C then Team A will automatically beat Team C. However, Arizona proved to be the better team when they faced Oregon State a few weeks ago. They moved the ball up and down the field and did a decent job containing the Beavers offense, despite giving up points late in the game. Arizona has quietly improved throughout the season. In addition, they are in a great spot in this game. The Wildcats faced lowly Washington State last week and had a bye week before that game. Meanwhile, California has to be demoralized entering this game. They probably have lost their All-American tailback Jahvid Best for the season because of his freakish injury last week. It was clear that the offense wasn’t the same after he left the line-up. Best is the centerpiece of everything they do, so I look for the offense to struggle again. The Bears are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games. They have been dominated by the best teams in the PAC-10 and have struggled to beat the weakest teams in the conference. California doesn’t have a strong home field advantage either this season. Look for Arizona to come in and get an easy road win.
5 UNIT SELECTION ARIZONA
Karl Garrett
50 DIMER - SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
10 DIMER - STANFORD CARDINAL
50 DIMER - SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
Sure, the Gamecocks have some injuries they are dealing with, but after getting trounced the last 2 years by the Gators, it is time for Spurrier to inspire the troops for a hug effort this Saturday at home.
South Carolina has played 3 of their last 4 away from home, and not surprisingly have lost 3 of those 4. Back at home they will be able to get up for an inspired effort against the Gators who have no passing game to speak of.
The 'Cocks are looking to become bowl-eligible, and while the outright may be a longshot, Carolina is 3-1 against the spread as a double-digit home dog since 1999.
Florida has failed to cover their last 3 tries as a favorite of 15-points or more, and I don't see them covering this one either.
Take South Carolina as this game stays closer than the 56-6 romp the Gamecocks were handed last year at the Swamp!
10 DIMER - STANFORD CARDINAL
I don't get this line, as Stanford's upset win over Oregon should be proof enough the Tree is for real, and USC's failure to cover for a 4th straight game should be proof enough the Trojans are being asked to cover inflated numbers!
You need more numbers?
Stanford has more than held their own against their conference rival, as the Cardinal is 4-1 against the spread the last 5 series meetings, and have won OUTRIGHT in 3 of their last 5 visits to the City of Angels!
USC is on a 3-10 spread slide in the regular season their last 13 lined games, and a lousy 2-7 versus the line this season!
Stanford's 6 straight up wins this year are the most for this program since the 2001 season. Again, laying double-digits with this SoCal edition has proven to be a money-burner.
Don't do it!
Take Stanford plus the points.
Bob Balfe
Ohio State -16.5 over Iowa
Iowa showed us last week how weak they are with out Stanzi at QB also Ohio State proved just how good they are as they thumped Penn State last weekend. Iowa is not a top tier 9-1 team and will have no answer for the OSU defense today. Look for the Buckeyes to play solid defense and solid offense. Take OSU.
Idaho +31.5 over Boise State
Idaho is probably one of the most improved teams in the nation and I would say this would be a good line for last year, but this year Idaho has a good offense and can really throw the ball. I would wait to bet this game right up until game time due to the status of QB Enderle who probably will play, but just wait because if not the line will go up in our favor (3:30 PM EST) and the backup is capable of covering this game. This game might turn into a shootout. Take Idaho.
USC -10.5 over Stanford
USC has lost only once in the last 48 games at home. That one loss was to this Stanford team and there are a lot of players on the Trojans that still remember that. Both teams have young QB's who play well above their age and experience. I really do like what Stanford has done, but I do not think they are ready to take control of the PAC 10 especially in the Trojans' back yard. USC should get out to an early lead and pull away by halftime. Look for the Cardinals to be brought back down to reality tonight. Take USC.
Kansas State +1 over Missouri
Missouri looked good early in the season, but it was because of a soft schedule. Last week they blew the game to Baylor at home up by 11 at the half. This team has no heart and I wouldnt be shocked for KState to blow them out by running the ball. KState has been playing well and will look to get a big win as Missouri has crushed them the last few years. Take Kansas State at home.
NBA Basketball
Hawks -9 over Hornets
College Basketball
St. Louis -18 over SE Missouri State