Gameday
5* Oregon
3* Oregon St
Dominic Fazzini
25 Dime - Kentucky
While the Wildcats and the Commodores are similiar defensively, Kentucky's offense is clearly better than Vanderbilt's. The Wildcats put up 27.1 yards per game, while the Commodores are averaging just 16.7, including a paltry six points per game in SEC play.
And now Vanderbilt is trotting out its second-string QB for the second straight week. Senior Mackenzi Adams made his first start of the season last week against Florida after Larry Smith was injured, and he completed just 13 of 29 passes for 100 yards with no TDs and one interception.
And while Kentucky's defense is nowhere near as strong as the Gators', the Wildcats do possess the conference's fourth-ranked pass defense, giving up just 169.9 yards per game.
Kentucky coach Rich Brooks isn't expected to name his starting QB until game time, with starter Mike Hartline on the mend after missing four games with a knee injury, but I think the Wildcats can get the job done with either Hartline or freshman Morgan Newton in the lineup.
Plus, leading rusher Derrick Locke (knee) and leading receiver Randall Cobb (thumb) are both supposed to return to the Wildcats' lineup after sitting out last week's 37-12 victory over Eastern Kentucky with injuries.
Kentucky needs just one more win this season to become bowl eligible for the fourth straight year, which would be the first time in school history that happened, so the Wildcats are going to be up for this one.
Vanderbilt, on the other hand, is going nowhere at 2-8 and is hasn't had a bye all season, so I'm not expecting the Commodores' best effort, especially coming off its 27-3 loss at Florida and with a season-ending game at Tennessee next week.
Vanderbilt is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog, and 0-4 ATS in its last four home games. Even more damning, the Commodores are 1-13 straight up and 2-12 ATS as home 'dogs of less than 4 points.
Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite, and 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Take the Wildcats to cover the points today.
10 Dime - NORTH CAROLINA STATE
The Wolfpack is a little shaky on defense, but it can definitely light up the scoreboard, averaging 33.7 points per game, which ranks second in the ACC and 20th in the nation.
QB Russell Wilson heads a strong passing attack for N.C. State, completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 2,351 yards and 24 touchdowns. The Wolfpack ranks third in the ACC and 19th in the country with 294.2 passing yards per game.
Running back C.J. Spiller is the leader of Clemson's offense, and he has rushed for 329 yards and has five touchdowns in three career games against the Wolfpack. But N.C. State is third in the ACC in rushing defense this year, giving up just 117.3 yards per game, so things could be a lot tougher for Spiller today than they have in the past.
Clemson is just 1-2 on the road this season, compared to 5-1 at home, and it is just 1-4 ATS in its five games as a road favorite. North Carolina State is 11-4-2 ATS in its last 17 games overall, 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 home games and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home 'dog. The Tigers probably still gain the win today, but the Wolfpack should stay within spitting distance. Take N.C. State to cover the points.
Ron Meyer
15* Wisconsin
10* Kansas St.
5* Stanford
Harry Bondi
Lock of the Year
AIR FORCE -17
The Booooj
100 units on Texas (-23.5) over Baylor
25 units on Arkansas (-13.5) over Troy
25 units on USC (-10) over Stanford
25 units on Middle Tennessee State (-13.5) over UL-Lafayette
10 units on Kansas (+4) over Nebraska
Youngstown Connection
Indiana +25
NorthCoast
Marquee
ND
Troy
UTEP
Marshall
Small College
4 Troy
3 UL Monroe
2 FL Atlantic
Chris Jordan
500♦ KENTUCKY - One win.
That's what stands in the way of the oft-absent-minded Wildcats from becoming bowl eligible. And something tells me this team is going to be far from abset-minded today, with so much at stake.
All week I've read accounts of how everyone in Lexington assumes the clash with Vandy has always been an automatic win. Coach Rich Brooks says that's false, and he's done everything to keep his troops focused on the importance of this game.
I believe him.
After all, the Cats have won 39 times in this series; Vanderbilt has won 38 and there have been four ties. How do you look past something like that?
Kentucky is going to pose problems for Vanderbilt this week, using a duo-quarterback threat, as Mike Hartline, who started the Cats' first four games before he was sidelined by a knee injury at South Carolina, returns after a four-game absence. He and Morgan Newton - his replacement in the starting lineup - will play against the Commodores. The starter is a game-day decision, and I haven't seen who is getting the nod.
But it shouldn't matter against the 54th-ranked defense. It's scrappy, I'll admit. But because the rushing D ranks 101st in the country, it tells me the front line is easily worn down, which means this is a second-half pullaway for us.
Vandy split its first four games and is 0-6 since, losing by an average margin of 14.3 points per loss. That, understandably, is in part because the Commodores have played the likes of Georgia, Georgia Tech and Florida in three of the last four weeks. But it's also because this team can't do anything on offense.
Vandy is ranked 111th with its passing game, 111th in scoring and 102nd overall. That should make things much easier for a Kentucky team that is respectable on defense.
Must win ... it's the mantra for many teams over the next few weeks. For Kentucky, it's the theme for the day.
NOTE - I've noticed the line in this game is anywhere from 2-1/2 to 3-1/2 points. It's very sporadic. My suggestion is most definitely to buy the half-point down from either -3 or -3-1/2. It's worth the value, in the event this game comes down to the wire. Your value is to play Kentucky at -2-1/2 if possible, which right now I see is VERY POSSIBLE at about 80 percent of the books online, which are sitting at -3. If there's an extra hook, you are to buy it down to -3 and lay only the field goal
Nick Bogdanovich
Big: UL Monroe
Average: Wisconsin, Indiana, Mississippi St
LARRY NESS
Two 4-5 teams meet on Saturday night in San Diego when the Wyoming Cowboys visit the San Diego St Aztecs. Believe it or not, both schools still have a chance at going to a bowl. THE MWC has five bowl tie-ins and with TCU favored to get a BCS bowl bid, the Cowboys or Aztecs (if either one can get to six wins), will get a bid, as CSU and Mew Mexico have already been eliminated from bowl consideration. Both schools understand the importance of this game and I STRONGLY favor the home team. Wyoming opened with a 29-22 win over Weber St, then lost 41-10 at home to Texas and 24-0 at Colorado. The Cowboys rebounded to win three in a row after that with freshman QB Carta-Samuels averaging 229.7 YPG with six TDs and just one INT. However, the Cowboys have lost three straight games entering this contest, losing 10-0 at Air Force, 22-10 at Utah and 52-0 at home to BYU. Carta-Samuels has averaged only 101.0 YPG in the three losses, failing to throw a TD in 84 attempts with two INTs. It's clearly not just his fault, as the OL has allowed 14 sacks and paved the way for just 87.7 YPG on the ground (2.9 YPC). Moving to SDSU, let's ignore the team's 55-12 loss to TCU last Saturday (it's irrelevant). SDSU had won THREE of its previous four games (loss was 38-28 to BYU). QB Lindley is fighting shoulder problems but prior to the TCU game, he had averaged 336.7 YPG with 12 TDs and just one INT in that stretch. SDSU has an awful rushing attack (69.3 YPG / 2.6 YPC) which ranks 118th but RB Sullivan has run for 81 and 75 yards the last two weeks (Wyoming allows 151.9 YPG on the ground). Lindley lost his best WR Vincent Brown a few games back but Sampson caught 15 passes for 257 yards (three TDs) in the game Brown got hurt and has 33 catches and eight TDs in his last four games. Lindley faces a Wyoming defense which allows 238.7 YPG through the air and 63.7 percent completions. SDSU head coach Brady Hoke had back-to-back outstanding season at his alma mater Ball St in 2007 and 2008, before taking this job. He made a terrific hire by making Rocky Long as his DC (stepped away at New Mexico last year after 11 seasons and five bowl trips from 2002-07). The Aztecs are the only Mountain West Conference program not to go to a bowl game and this is SDSU's home finale. A win here, means a win at UNLV on Nov 28th (can't expect to win at Utah on Nov 21) and the Aztecs almost assuredly will go to their first bowl since 1998. In their way are the Cowboys, who have been held to 13 points or less SIX times (nine games) in 2009, including three shutouts. Wyoming has averaged just 200.3 YPG in its last three games, while scoring a total of just 10 points (3.3 per game). SDSU is 7-3 ATS over its last 10 home finales and the home team is 15-4 SU in this series since 1989 with SDSU winning the last SIX meetings SU and ATS vs Wyoming here at Qualcomm Stadium. MWC Crusher on San Diego St (10*).
The 76ers went 41-41 last season under Maurice Cheeks and then, Tony DiLeo. They were hoping this year that Eddie Jordan, who spent five-plus years with the Wizards before getting fired early last season, would be able to "put some life" in a Philly offense which ranked 22nd in the NBA last season (97.4 PPG). Early returns have not been good, as the 76ers are averaging just 98.3 PPG in Jordan's faster-paced offense. Philly is averaging only 89.8 PPG over the last six games, going 2-4 in that stretch with BOTH wins coming over the pathetic 0-9 Nets (76ers are 0-6 ATS in their current slide). Things got pretty 'ugly' last night in Philadelphia, as the 76ers lost 112-90 to the Jazz (trailed by as many as 26), who were playing without starting PG Deron Williams. Brand, who the 76ers expected to be a 20-10 guy when they signed him away from the Clippers, is averaging just 9.7-5.2 and it's looking more and more like he's NEVER going to fit in. Philly now must go to Chicago, which hasn't played since Wednesday, when the Bulls went 'ice cold' in the second half against the Raptors. Chicago scored 60 first-half points at Toronto, but shot 10-of-40 from the floor in the second half and scored just 29 points in a 99-89 loss. That came one night after falling 90-89 to Denver after Brad Miller's apparent game-winning jumper at the buzzer was overturned following a 10-minute replay review. This is an important game for the Bulls, as it's their final home game before a six-game trip while the circus takes over the United Center. They do not return to Chicago until December 2. The Bulls miss Thomas but watch out for USC rookie Gibson, who has averaged 14.0 PPG and 5.5 RPG the last two games. Deng (17.4-9.2) is healthy up front and PG Rose (13.8-5.6 APG) could have a big game for the Bulls. This has blowout written all over it. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Chi Bulls (7.5*).
"Bill Snyder has a chance to make his return to Manhattan something special if he can get his Wildcats to win Saturday against in-state rival Kansas. Snyder became a legend when he took over what was CFB's worst Division I-A program back in 1989. The Wildcats were off back-to-back seasons of 0-21-1 in '87 and '88 and while Snyder's first team went 1-10, he turned the Wildcats into one of the nation's most successful programs by 1993. KSU went to 11 straight bowl games (from 1993-2003), as Snyder's Wildcats beat their in-state rivals (Kansas) all 11 years (covering 10 times!). Snyder's KSU teams fell to 4-7 in 2004 and 5-6 in 2005 and he felt it was time to go (no one was complaining in Manhattan). However, Ron Prince's three-year tenure at KSU resulted in seasons of 7-6 (lost 37-10 to Rutgers in the Texas Bowl), 5-7 and 5-7. Kansas won and covered all three meetings with KSU during "the Prince era" and Snyder was welcomed back." I then concluded by writing, "The Jayhawks look like dead men walking and I can't for the life of me figure out why they are favored here in Manhattan. KSU is 4-0 SU at home in 2009 and ups that record to 5-0 here.Rivalry Game of the Month 20* Kansas St."
The Wildcats came through with a 17-10 win and are bowl eligible at 6-4. More importantly, Snyder's team controls its own destiny, leading the Big 12 North with a 4-2 mark. Missouri surprised everyone this year opening 4-0. QB Chase Daniel was gone after posting a 100-39 TD-to-INT ratio and over 12,00 passing yards the last three years, leading the Tigers to bowl wins and a 22-6 combined record the last two seasons. Sophomore Gabbert was taking over at QB in '09 (just 13 attempts LY) but Missouri opened 4-0 while averaging 36.8 PPG (Gabbert threw 11 TDs without an INT in that start). However, "the season came apart" on a Thursday night (10/8) in Columbia, when the Tigers IMPLODED against Nebraska. Leading 12-0 in the 4th quarter, the Tigers allowed 20 points in less than five minutes (Gabbert threw INTs on consecutive possessions to set up scores), eventually losing 27-12. That began a slide which has seen Missouri go 1-4 (all in Big 12 play), winning only vs the sad-sack Buffs of Colorado. The Wildcats opened 1-2 in 2009 (lone win was a 21-17 home win over U Mass!) but they've gone 5-2 since. Snyder reluctantly went with a two-QB system (Coffman and Gregory) but Gregory has started the last six games, taking EVERY snap the last three. The running game is excellent averaging 190.7 YPG (4.4 YPC / 22 TDS), as Thomas leads the way with 1,087 yards (5.3 YPC / 11 TDs) after rushing for a career-high 185 (7.7 YPC) last week. KSU is 5-0 SU at home, including 3-0 SU and ATS in Big 12 games. Like Kansas, Missouri went 3-0 vs KSU in the "Prince era," but note that Snyder ended his first run at KSU by winning his last 13 games against Missouri, including a 36-28 home win over the Tigers in the 2005 finale, which was his "good-bye" game. Snyder's back and this is KSU's home finale of 2009 (team was 10-1 SU in home finales in Snyder's 11-year bowl run from 1993-30003) and what team does he get here? Good old Missouri, a school he's 'OWNED!' Again, the oddsmakers and I guess the public as well, are vastly underrating these Wildcats.Las Vegas Insider on Kansas State (8*).
Boise St understandably gets all the 'ink' in the WAC but Nevada actually leads the conference at 5-0 (Boise's 4-0) and Fresno St is right behind both schools with a 5-1 league mark. The Wolf Pack have won six straight games after opening 0-3, which represents the school's longest winning streak in 14 years. As for the Bulldogs, their season has followed a similar path to Nevada's. FSU beat UC-Davis 51-0 in its season opener but then lost 34-31 in OT at Wisconsin, 51-24 at home to Boise St and 28-20 at Cincy. FSU has since won five straight (all in WAC play), outscoring conference opponents 35.8-to-17.8 PPG. RB Ryan Mathews of FSU leads the nation in rushing (162.1 YPG), averaging 7.1 YPC with 14 TDs . However, while FSU ranks fifth in the nation in rushing (250.9 YPG / 5.8 YPC), that's still almost 70 yards less than Nevada averages (more on that in just a little bit). QB Colburn is fairly mediocre, completing a solid 62.6 percent but averaging just 178.4 YPG with a 13-9 ratio. Now to Nevada. Let's just concentrate on the team's six-game winning streak because who cares what happened in the team's 0-3 start? FSU has won its last five games by an average margin of 18 PPG but Nevada has outscored its last six opponents on average, 49.7 PPG to 24.5, which is a margin of just over 25 PPG! The Wolf Pack have averaged a mind-boggling 421.7 YPG on the ground in their winning streak (8.1 YPC). Just look at this backfield. QB Kaepernick has averaged 133.0 YPG on the ground (9.9 YPC) while completing 62.2% of his throws for 174.5 YPG (12 TDs and just one INT). RB Taua has played in five of the six games, averaging 134.2 YPG on 7.8 YPC and his partner Lippincott has averaged 91.8 YPG in the six-game streak (7.7 YPC). While Fresno St is a quality program that's proven itself time and again under head coach Pat Hill (in his 13th year), I believe there's no stopping this Nevada team right now, at least until it takes on Bopsie St on the "blue turf" on November 27th (day after Thanksgiving). No one has been a better 'bully' than Chris Ault, as the veteran coach has gone an amazing 18-4 ATS that's 81.8% as a home favorite since returning to Reno in 2004. With all Nevada's momentum, that gives me a Club-80 Play on Nevada (9*).
USC has won seven consecutive Pac 10 titles and still has an outside chance for an eighth but the Trojans will need help. The real surprise team in the Pac 10 race is Stanford. The Cardinal were picked to finish sixth in the Pac 10 preseason media poll but at 5-2 remain in the 'hunt' for their first league title since 1999. Stanford's 51-42 win last Saturday against Oregon moved Stanford into the AP top-25 (at No. 25) for the first time since 2001, the last time the Cardinal were bowl eligible. The Trojans were all but out of the Pac 10 race after losing 47-20 to Oregon but the Ducks' loss to Stanford coupled with USC's unimpressive 14-9 win at ASU keeps the team's Rose Bowl hopes barely 'alive." However, I'm not playing the Trojans because they may still have a shot at the Rose Bowl. Rather, I'm playing "against" the Cardinal off their HUGE home upset of Oregon (my CFB Underdog of theYear, by the way!) and "on" the Trojans in a "delayed" revenge situation. The Cardinal probably have the better QB in redshirt freshman Luck (230.7 YPG / 11-3 ratio) and surely own the best RB in Gerhart, who rushed for a school-record 223 yards (38 carries) and three TDs LW vs Oregon (1,217 YR / 5.2 YC / 16 TDs on the year). However, games like this are "old hat" for Carroll and the Trojans, while I'm not sure Stanford can match LW's 'high' or intensity. I don't totally trust USC's freshman QB Barkley but while the ground game is fueled by a revolving door of RBs, they are all talented with USC averaging 186.0 YPG (5.3 YPC) on the ground. The USC defense has had its ups and downs in 2009, no doubt. The Trojans allowed just 40 points through five games but then allowed 110 points in going 2-1 against ND, Oregon St and Oregon. USC got a 55-yard TD on an INT return LW plus a 75-yard TD pass from Barkley, which was good enough to edge ASU 14-9 (Sun Devils only TD came with 36 seconds left, as ASU was held to 12 FDs and 258 yards by USC). It's hard to ignore that 47-20 loss at Oregon where the Trojans allowed 613 yards, including 391 on the ground. However, excepting the Oregon game, USC has allowed 80.0 YPG on the ground and 2.4 YPC. Who can forget Stanford's last visit to the Coliseum, a 24-23 win that ended USC's 35-game home win streak (24 straight in the Pac 10) back in October of 2007. USC avenged that loss last year with a 45-23 win at Palo Alto but I believe this home game has a special meaning for Carroll. His team is facing the real possibility of missing out on a BCS bowl for the first time since 2001, his first year in LA. Let me also point out that USC hasn't lost at home since that 2007 loss to Stanford and going back to Carroll's first season at USC (2001), his Trojans have won 47 of their last 48 home games with the Cardinal win in 2007 being the lone blemish. Which school beat USC the game before it began its 47-1 home winning run? Try Stanford! Talk about a "perfect storm!" PERFECT STORM on USC (9*).
Seabass
300* NCST
300* Kansas
200* USC
100* Oregon (steam)
100* Memphis
100* Fresno St
50* Wash
50* Texas Tech
50* TCU
50* UVA
50* Duke
Pure Lock
Atlanta -9.5.
Princeton +6
Fairway Jay
20* College GO Wisconsin
C Star Sports Picks
5000 Units Michigan plus the points over Wisconsin
5000 Units Houston -4 over Central Florida
1000 Units Indiana +24.5 over Penn State
50 units Virginia Tech at Maryland under the total
Scott Spreitzer
5* Fl St Over
KO Miss St
TKO Ohio St
Dog Pound ND
Insider G Tech
Total Nebrask Und
Jim Feist
IC - Ohio St, NC, Kansas
Best - Arizona
Plat Hawaii
5* Fl St & Kentucky
4* Miss St
3* NC St
Savannah Sports
4* Texas Tech +4.5
4* Wyoming +7
3* Florida State +5
Eric Degarde
3* Milwaukee -7
2* Charlotte Under 173.5
John Ryan
15* SMU Mustangs -7
10* Central Florida Golden Knights +4.5
10* Texas Tech Red Raiders +4.5
7* Notre Dame Fighting Irish +6.5
3* Troy Trojans +13.5
7* Charlotte Bobcats +3
Adam Meyer
Stanford
Texas Tech
San Diego St
Northcoast Big Dogs
Duke +13
Utep +8
NDame+8
Stanford+11
UNLV+17
Troy+14
Bob Valentino
30 Dime UCLA
Underdog Sportsline
UTEP
Must Win Sports
5 DIME VIRGINIA
PPP
5% K State
5% Oregon
4% Pitt
4% Idaho
3% N Texas Over
Wunderdog
Hou - 4.5 3 units
Hou - ml 5 units
Clem - 8 4 units
San Jose + 13 3 units
B Coll - 4 3 units
Cal un 55.5 3 units
Wash + 12 3 units
Wash un 57.5 3 units
Ark un 66.5 3 units