BIG AL
17-0 NON CONFERENCE FB GOM
TEXAS LONGHORNS
David Malinsky
4* NORTHWESTERN over ILLINOIS
We set the stage for this one in this week’s edition of ”VERITIES & BALDERDASH”, when we once again went into detail about the remarkable run that Pat Fitzgerald continues to have in this category. But because it is still Northwestern, a program that lacks sex appeal, we do not see proper adjustments, and that means time to go to the well once again, especially with the injury to Dan Persa leading to a bigger adjustment than it should.
First, the Fitzgerald story. He took over at his alma mater under trying circumstances, and the Wildcats got off to a slow start in his first season. That can easily be excused. But once he began to get his system in play there has been a major turnaround – they are heading to a bowl for the third straight season. Because of the tenacity and tactics of the head coach it has been a sparkling 18-9 ATS run in the last 27 underdog settings, but in this case it goes far beyond that – in 13 of those games the Wildcats won the game outright, and two of the defeats came in O.T. in tough bowl losses to Auburn and Missouri. So the true bottom line is that in the last 27 underdog opportunities, Northwestern is an impressive 13-12-2 SU in regulation. And note that the deeper we get into the season the more impressive the count becomes – Fitzgerald and his team have been underdogs in November 13 times, and won the game outright on nine occasions. Two of the four games they did not win came vs. Ohio State, which is easily excused.
So fast forward to this week and what do we have? What has been the flat-out superior program (Northwestern is 34-26 under Fitzgerald; Illinois 26-44 in the Ron Zook years), taking more than a full TD on a neutral field that will actually favor their fan base slightly (the Wildcats were awarded more tickets to Wrigley because it is their season to host this rivalry game). And in the Fitzgerald/Zook head-to-heads it is a 3-1 SU and ATS run to Northwestern, beating the spread by 48.5 points over those games.
Yes, much of this line is because of the absence of Persa, who should get a lot of Big 10 MVP notice for the great season he was having. But there is a legit talent to replace him in 6-6/245 RS FR Evan Watkins, who possesses a much stronger arm, and while he lacks the quickness of the nimble Persa running the ball, he brings a power dimension (750 rushing yards and 15 TD’s in his two seasons as a high school starter, not all that far from where this game will be played at Glenbard North). He has the talent and the moxie to be trusted here, and makes it difficult for the Illinois defense to tactically prepare, since they can not be aware of the way that the offense will be tweaked to take advantage of Watkins’ arm strength. This is a defense that is showing clear signs of wearing down (two weeks ago Michigan’s offense had its #1 conference output for points and total yards, even without counting the O.T. periods; last week Minnesota produced #1 for points and #2 for yards in Big 10 play), and can be vulnerable in playing for the 8th straight week.
Dr Bob
Penn State (-10) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -13.
Boston College (-6 1/2) 2-Stars at -7 or less.
Pittsburgh (-2 1/2) 2-Stars at -3 or less.
Opinions
Syracuse (-3 1/2) Strong Opinion, 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (at -115 odds or better).
Duke (+11) Strong Opinion at +10 or more.
Iowa (+3) Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket: Stanford
Penn St
Boston College
Arkansas
Pittsburgh
W Kentucky
Steven Budin
Arkansas
Trace Adams
Marshall
Larry Ness
27-Club Play - Utah -2.5
As the month of November dawned, Utah was 8-0 and ranked 5th in the latest BCS standings, right ahead of FB powers Alabama, Nebraska and Oklahoma. How quickly things change. Just two scant weeks later, the Utes have lost back-to-back games. The team's total demolition at the hands of TCU (47-7) was brutal. The Horned Frogs out-gained the Utes 558-to-199 in yards and TCU's 40-point victory was the second-largest margin in a regular season game between two top-five BCS teams. The loss also ended Utah's 21-game winning streak at Rice-Eccles Stadium. While that loss was bad, this past Saturday's loss at South Bend was even more devastating to Utah's "rep!" The Irish have become laughingstocks in CFB these days but Notre Dame walked away from last Saturday's game with a 28-3 win. When the 'dust' cleared last Sunday night, the Utes found themselves down to No. 23 in the latest BCS standings, hanging on for dear life. Up next for the Utes (before its season-ender with BYU) is Brady Hoke's rapidly improving San Diego St Aztecs, who come in 7-3. SDSU's three losses in 2010? How about road games at Missouri (27-24), BYU (24-21) and this past Saturday, 40-35 at TCU (Horned Frogs had allowed just 23 points their previous five games and had outscored all opponents entering the SDSU game, 414-85!). I haven't read or heard anyone pick Utah in this game. Well, as Ronald Reagan used to say, I'm "all over" the Utes. How about inserting some reality into this game analysis. SDSU completed a 49-yard pass on its second play from scrimmage early on, setting up a one-yard TD run. Minutes later, the Aztecs sacked TCU's Dalton, who fumbled aninto the end zone with SDSU recovering to go up 14-0. From that point, until late in the third quarter, TCU scored 37 consecutive points. SDSU would tack on three late TDs while totaling 199 of its 300 total yards (had 38 yards rushing on 21 carries for the game), in 'garbage time.' For the game, SDSU had just seven FDs (that's right!). Now to Utah's 28-3 loss at Notre Dame. Utah held the Irish to just Notre Dame 256 yards! However, the Utes were minus-two in TO margin and that doesn't include Notre Dame's blocked punt TD. SDSU's played four "worthy" opponents this year, at Missouri, at BYU, home to Air Force and at TCU. Missouri didn't run much vs SDSU but threw for 351 yards. As for BYU, Air Force and TCU, those three schools ran for 266, 312 and 271 yards. That's 283.0 YPG on 4.8 YPC. After the Utes run on this 3-3-5 defense, it will open things up for QB Wynn and the Utes will earn back a measure of the respect they've lost these last two Saturdays. Bet on it!
Jack Clayton
GOY Virginia Tech -1.5
Marc Lawrence
Triple Perfect Famous 5* College Game Of The Month
5 Units Miami Florida
Top Dog Shocker
3 Units Iowa State
Joseph D'Amico
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
Play: Arkansas -3
Arkansas is 13-2 SU in this series, including LYs 42-21 victory over Miss St. The Razorbacks have won 4 in a row both SU and ATS. The team boasts an overall record of 8-2 TY with losses to then #1 Alabama and current #2 Auburn. They have a well-balanced offense averaging 37.9 PPG. QB Ryan Mallett has amassed 2967 YP, a 67.3% completion rate, 24 TDs, with just 8 INTs. He faces the 23rd ranked pass “D” but truth be told, MSU hasn’t seen a QB and scheme the caliber of Arkansas. The Razorbacks other offensive weapon is RB Knile Davis (844 YR and 10 TDs). On “D”, Arkansas is getting better and better. Outside of the Auburn meltdown, the Hogs haven’t yielded more than 24 points to any foe this season, which includes opponents Alabama and Georgia. I am sure the team will follow suit and do what Alabama did in LWs win over MSU and load up the box and get pressure on the erratic Bulldogs QBs. Mississippi State has struggled at the QB position TY. They have gone back and forth with both Relf and Russell at the helm. The duo has had almost as many INTs (10) as TDs (11). MSU can run the ball with Ballard, Relf, and Perkins carrying most of the workload. The trio has combined for 1635 YR and 19 TDs. But against the stout Hog “D”. they will have trouble converting on 3rd down. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS their L9 conference games and 16-5 ATS their L21 games played in November. The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS their L7 games played as a ‘dog and 2-8 ATS their L10 games played in November. Take Arkansas.
Lenny Del Genio
Revenge Game of the Year
25* Iowa Hawkeyes
Reason: Play on Iowa at 3:30 ET. We are going to go ahead and look past Iowa's 21-17 upset loss at Northwestern last week (-10) and chalk it up as a case of looking ahead to this game. The Hawkeyes simply have not had much luck through the years vs. Ohio State, going just 1-11 SU since '92, but did manage to force OT in LY's 27-24 defeat as QB Stanzi was injured and did not play, but Iowa had no trouble covering the huge 16 pt number. This despite starting a redshirt freshman (James Vanderburg) at QB. Despite Vanderburg throwing three interceptions (only turnovers of the game by either team), Iowa was still only outgained 322-320. The scene shifts to Iowa City this year and that's important to note considering the Hawkeyes have won 16 of their previous 20 home finales SU. This will be the biggest game in the career of the senior class. Quite frankly, we're stunned at who's favored in this game and it probably has a lot to do with Iowa losing last week at Northwestern. Meanwhile, we're at Week 11 of the College Football season and we defy you to show us one quality win on the schedule by Ohio State. Sure Miami (FL) was "supposed to be good," but the cries from Columbus fall on deaf ears for us as the Buckeyes were fortunate enough to be +4 in turnovers in that game, yet still only won by 12 pts at home. Their only road test this season was at Wisconsin and before the 1st quarter was even over they found themselves down 21-0. The only bowl eligible teams they've beaten all season are Ohio U and Penn State. Note that Iowa is 10-2 ATS coming off their previous 12 ATS losses. Iowa is our 25* Revenge Game of the Year.
Joel Tyson
Rutgers
Chuck O'Brien
Mississippi
Michigan
New Mexico State
Jim Feist
Michigan St
Oklahoma St
Troy
Penn St
Texas A&M
USC
Northern Illinois
3 Team College Power Parlay - BYU, San Diego St, Hawaii
Scott Spreitzer
Big 10 GOM - Iowa
SEC GOM - Tennessee
Morning Massacre Oklahoma St
Oddsmaker GOM - Utah