Jeff Benton
40 Dime Stanford
15 Dime Troy
STANFORD
Give Cal credit for hanging with Oregon last week, holding the Ducks to just one offensive touchdown in a 15-13 home loss. Certainly nobody could’ve seen that coming, what with how explosive the Ducks’ offense has been this year and given how poorly the Bears had played the previous week in a lackluster 20-13 win at lowly Washington State.
Still, if you look inside the boxscore of that contest, you’ll see that Cal produced just 193 total yards, went 4-for-13 on third downs, and backup QB Brock Mansion – subbing for the injured Kevin Riley, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury – was just 10-for-28 for 69 yards. And that was against a mediocre (at best) Oregon defense. In fact, Cal has scored a total of just 40 points in its last three games (while averaging a paltry 260.7 ypg). And if you take out a 50-17 home win over Arizona State and a 35-7 win against overmatched UCLA, and here are Cal’s point totals in its five other Pac-10 games: 9, 14, 7, 20 and 13.
That’s a big deal because Stanford’s defense in its last three games has surrendered 0, 17 and 13 points and limited those three foes to an average of 267.7 yards per game, including just 164.7 passing yards per game. Only four times all year has Stanford surrendered more than 17 points, and in two of those games, the Cardinal had big leads when they let off the gas defensively (they were up 41-7 in a 68-24 win over Wake Forest and they had a 31-7 lead against Washington State and won 38-28).
The only two opponents that Stanford has struggled to stop are USC (35 points) and Oregon (52 points), and I think we’d all agree both those squads are much more prolific offensively than the Bears (who, again, are down to their second-string QB).
One more point to make about Cal before getting to Stanford: The Bears (5-5) have not strung together back-to-back strong performances since opening the season with consecutive blowout wins over UC Davis (52-3) and Colorado (52-7). Seriously, check out the results since then: 52-31 loss at Nevada, 10-9 loss at Arizona State, 35-7 win over UCLA, 48-14 loss at USC, 50-17 win over Arizona State, 35-7 loss at Oregon State, 20-13 win over crappy Washington State, 15-13 loss to Oregon, the No. 1-ranked team in the country.
As for the Cardinal, they’re 9-1 on the season and have won five straight since getting destroyed in the second half at Oregon on Oct. 2. Of the nine wins, seven have been double-digit blowouts, and although Stanford struggled to a 17-13 victory over Arizona State last week (pushing as a four-point road favorite), the Cardinal had a 420-268 yardage advantage, and star QB Andrew Luck went 33-for-41 for 292 yards. And when you look at Stanford’s stats in five road games (including the Oregon loss), here’s what you see: 33.2 points and 434.8 yards per game on offense, 15.8 points and 317 yards per game on defense.
Finally, this is a HUGE game for Stanford and coach Jim Harbaugh, who have dropped the last two meetings to Cal 37-16 (at Cal) and 34-28 (last year at Stanford). In fact, the Bears have won seven of the last eight meetings. Of course, in none of those previous contests were the Cardinal as good as they are now – nor were the Bears as average (especially offensively) as they are this season.
Stanford is 5-1-1 ATS in its last six road games going back to last season (3-0-1 ATS as a favorite), while Cal has cashed just three times in its last seven games as a home underdog.
Look for the Cardinal to jump out to an early lead as they take advantage of a Cal squad still hungover from last week’s near-miss against Oregon, and that will put the Bears in position where backup QB Mansion will be forced to throw … which would play right into Stanford’s game plan.
Stanford rolls 34-10.
TROY
We saw two weeks ago how South Carolina performs in a game that’s essentially meaningless – they lost 40-21 to Arkansas as a four-point home favorite and got outgained 443-295. Well, after clinching the SEC East title with last week’s impressive 36-14 rout of Florida as a 6½-point ‘dog, the Gamecocks are in the exact same spot today in this non-conference game against Troy. In fact, not only is it a meaningless game, it’s combination letdown/trap game for South Carolina, which has this contest against a Sun Belt Conference opponent sandwiched between Florida and archrival Clemson (on the road).
South Carolina hasn’t covered in back-to-back games since Weeks 1 and 2 against Southern Miss and Georgia, and last week’s victory over the Gators was just the second time all season that the ‘Cocks had won a game by more than 20 points (the other being the season-opening 41-13 rout of Southern Miss).
Troy is a tricky opponent because the Trojans can put up points. They’ve tallied between 30 and 41 points in eight of nine games this season, and going back to last September they’ve scored 30 or moe in 18 of 20 games, including 40 or more nine times.
Yes, Troy has failed to cover in four straight games and six of its last seven, but it was favored in each of those six non-covers. And get this: The ‘dog has gotten the money in every single Trojans game this season, while the underdog is 5-1 ATS in South Carolina’s last six games.
Throw in the fact that the Gamecocks have failed to cover in seven of their last nine as a home chalk (including the ugly Arkansas loss), four of five as a double-digit home favorite and five in a row after a SU win, and these big points become even more enticing.
Wayne Root
Billionaire GOY - Iowa
Brandon Lang
USC -3
Dr. Bob
I’ll take Phoenix in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or less and for 3-Stars at -1 or better.
Special K
10* IOWA + 3
7* FLORIDA ST - 3.5
7* NEBRASKA - 2
7* MISSISSIPPI + 16.5
5* SAN DIEGO STATE + 2.5
Evan Altemus
1* Tennessee -9
Vanderbilt has been destroyed by every team recently. The have been beating by 10 points or more in their last five games and seven of their last nine games. This game is always their biggest of the season, while Tennessee usually could care less. However, this season is different. The Volunteers can actually still make it to a bowl game, despite what was considering a horrible season. They can still make it to a bowl game by winning their last two games of the season, and they are playing their best football of the season. The offense has played much better since Tyler Bray has taken over as quarterback. That unit has scored 126 points overall the last 3 weeks with two of those games coming against SEC opponents. Look for Tennessee to get a blowout win.
Marc Lawrence
Troy +21.5
Talk about a letdown/look ahead, this is your classic: the Gamecocks are off their first-ever SEC East division-clinching win over Florida (coach Steve Spurrier's former team) with arch-rival Clemson on deck to close out the campaign. Meanwhile, with troubled Troy coming to Columbia off a stunning home loss to Florida International, the South Carolina players are likely still celebrating their upcoming rematch with Auburn in the conference championship game. Despite last week's stunning upset loss, Larry Blakeney's Trojans is still very dangerous, arriving with a 12-3 ATS mark as a dog versus a foe off a double-digit ATS win. On the flip side, Steve Spurrier's weak 17-23-1 ATS log in non-SEC contests off a straight win tells us his team is prime for a letdown. The clincher is this angle form our powerful database that tells us to: Play On any .454 or greater double-digit dog off a SU loss as a favorite of six or more points in which it allowed 27 or more points versus an .800 or less opponent if the dog was a bowl team last season. That's because these dogs are 12-0-1 ATS in this role since 1980. You know what to do here. We recommend a 3-unit play on Troy.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
6* Florida St. -3.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:
The Seminoles are 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS (including 2-2 ATS on the road); last time out they beat Clemson 16-13, unable to cover as 6 1/2-point favorites.
Florida State has a long-term record of playing well in Maryland; 5-2 SU its last 7 there; however, significant to note that it's also 2-0 ATS in road games when the total is between 49 1/2 and 52 points.
On the other side of the field: Maryland is 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS on the year; last time out it smashed Virginia on the road, 42-23 as 3-point favorites.
Not only are the Terrapins just 2-12 SU their last 14 vs. Florida State no matter the location, but over the last 2-seasons they are a poor 3-5 ATS off a win against a conference rival.
Bottom line: The Seminoles are energized here after last week's last second FG to seal the victory over Maryland; "After back-to-back losses, you would have figured that the world was ending," said quarterback Christian Ponder, referring to previous defeats against N.C. State and North Carolina."But the goals are still right there. Obviously, we have to handle business this week and hope that something happens with N.C. State for us to make it to the ACC championship game. But there's still that glimmer of hope."
"The opportunities are still there for us," Ponder said. "We can still have a very successful season."
Maryland in fact holds it own destiny in its hands, with back to back wins giving it the ACC Title; however I believe that Florida State has in fact progressed and will make the next step here in this crucial contest.
Red Zone Sports
1* Wake Forest / Clemson Over 48.5
Clemson Tigers Over 48.5 here gang as they have a huge huge battle with the South Carolina Game Cocks on deck and they will hang at least 40 on the Deacon Demons. Let's play the Over here as this baby begs the public on the Under as the Demon Deacons are a poor scoring crew!! The Power ratings check in here @ 54 and those #'s don't lie! The Tigers were held in check last week vs the FSU CREW. This week points will fly!
Christian Alexander
Nebraska at Texas A&M
Pick: Nebraska -2.5
Ninth-ranked Nebraska can clinch its second straight Big 12 North division title with a win this Saturday or next week against Colorado. No reason to think they will wait any longer than needed to clinch.
The Cornhuskers have won four straight games and even more impressive, are 4-0 on the road this season.
The Aggies are hot too, having also won four in a row but considering Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez (ankle) is back 100% and Roy Helu Jr. is running with tremendous confidence, the visitors will be tough to beat.
The Duke's Sports
Oregon State (+3') for 2 Units
Good spot for the Beavers which are coming off back-to-back SU losses. Oregon State sports a 15-2 ATS mark off back-to-back SU loss and a cash hoarding 9-1 ATS mark off a double-digit loss at home. The Beavers play the dog role well at 18-5 ATS and they'll be playing with revenge from last year's 42-36 loss but cover (+21) at USC. USC has had trouble in Corvallis at 0-4 ATS. We like Beavers' QB Katz who manages the game well and sports an accurate 60% completion rate and 14 TD passes to only 5 interceptions. He has a good amount of weaponry surrounding him and should be able to move the ball vs the USC defense, which has its share of leakage. The Trojans have an explosive offense but the Beavers' play a smart defensive game and should limit their success. USC has burnt money as a road favorite at 3-9 ATS, and they're just 3-8 ATS off a SU win. OR State the call.
RAS
Colorado -5
UC Santa Barbara -9.5
Long Beach State -4
Jr Tipps
10* Georgia tech
10* Iowa
Sports Unlimited
7* Nebraska
5* Utah
Ben Burns
10* Dallas Stars -150
San Jose Sharks -210