Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, November 21,2009

Greg Roberts

5* Stanford

DR BOB

Missouri (-14) 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars up to -17.
Stanford (-7) 2-Stars at -7 or less.
Baylor (+6 1/2) 2-Stars at +4 or more, 3-Stars at +7.
SMU (+4) 3-Stars at +3 1/2 or more, 2-Stars at +3.
Central Florida (-21) 2-Star Best Bet at -21 or less.

Opinions

South Florida(-11 1/2) Strong Opinion at -12 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -10.
Georgia (-8) Strong Opinion at -10 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -7.
Arkansas (-11) Strong Opinion at -12 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -10

Teddy Covers

20* Big Ticket: Kentucky +10

Rutgers -8
UCLA -4.5
Texas Tech +6.5
Arizona Over 60 -110
Hawaii -3

Dave Malinsky

5* Rutgers -8
4* Tennessee -17
6* Kentucky +9
4* miss st/Arkansas Under 60.5
4* Uconn/Notre Dame Under 58
6* Texas Tech +7
4* UTEP/Rice Under 68

Mac Monster

20* Kent St + 13
20* Akron + 10.5
20* Ohio -1
15* Oregon - 6
15* Oregon St -30.5
10* BYU -10
10* Arkansas -11
10* Army +2

Tim Trushel

20* Arizona

Nationwide

Top Plays: Northwestern, Kansas State.

Regulars: Tennessee, Kentucky, Connecticut, Troy.

Kiki Sports

GOY - Michigan
GOM - Arkansas
GOM - Southern Mississippi

Double Dragon

Arizona +6
Stanford -7
Texas -27.5
Texas A&m -5
Kansas State +17
Nevada -30.5

BRANDON LANG

25 DIME - RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS - This game today is about 2 teams heading in opposite directions and heading there fast.

Let me first talk about Rutgers, and just how good Greg Schiano has this team playing right now.

They come off a complete and utter domination of South Florida at home 31-0 in a game the Scarlet Knights defense that forced 4 turnovers, held them to 159 yards total offense including just 30 yards on the ground.

Now this Rutgers defense steps way down in class to take on a Syracuse team that has not only the 95th ranked rush offense in the country but the 110th ranked overall.

In other words folks, there are only 9 teams in all of division 1A with a worse offense than Syracuse.

Allow me to put this into it's proper prospective for you.

When you can't run the football and you are forced to throw, and the defense knows you are gonna throw, turnovers are going to happen and they are going to happen in bunches.

Of their 4 road games this year, Rutgers has beaten Maryland 34-13 forcing 5 turnovers, beat Army 27-10 forcing 3 turnovers, beat Uconn 28-24 forcing 4 turnovers.

This does not bode well for a Syracuse team that has turned it over 25 times facing a Rutgers team that is 2nd in the nation at forcing turnovers getting 29 of them.

Only Ohio has forced more and it's just one more at 30.

The Orangemen are seeing the wrong team at the wrong time. Nothing more and nothing less, and just like Maryland and Army before them, they will lose this game by 17 points or more.

Unlike Syracuse, which can't get out of it's own way, Rutgers has suffered 2 losses this year and they just happen to be against the two teams battling for the Big East championship in Pitt and Cincinnati.

If a former point guard from Duke, or his back up a redshirt freshman play well enough against this Rutgers defense to keep this game within single digits, then I will take my hat off to them, take my loss like a man and move on.

For my money, I say they can't. End of story.

10 DIME - STANFORD CARDINAL - There is no stopping Stanford right now.

And it sure isn't going to be Cal coming anywhere close to shutting them down with their 71st overall defense in college football.

The last 2 weeks have shown me that Stanford is playing at a level unmatched in the history of their school, and I am talking about the days of John Elway included.

You start putting up over 50 back-to- back weeks on the likes of Oregon with the 22nd best defense, and USC on the road with their 48th best defense, trust me when I tell you things have really clicked.

Let me take this one step further.

At home Stanford has won by margins of 25 over San Jose State, 20 over Washington, 8 over Ucla, 19 over Arizona St, and 9 over Oregon.

What is even more impressive is against the 15th overall defense in the country in Arizona State they scored 33, against the 22nd best defense in the country in Oregon they put up 51, and against the 49th best in USC they put up 55.

If you think it has anything to do with being at home, let me point out they went on the road versus the 18th best defense in Arizona and put up 38 and at Oregon State against the 58th best defense they put up 28.

Cal comes in with the 71st overall defense in the country. Somebody please say, "Watch out below!!!!!!!"

Of all the defenses in the Pac-10 Stanford has faced this year, Cal has the worst. Juggle that around in your head for a minute...you have time.

One last point. At the end of the USC game last week Stanford scored to make it 53-21 and Jim Harbaugh went for 2 to stuff it in Pete Carroll's face due to the fact in recruiting circles Carroll has been telling players being recruited by both USC and Stanford, "Why do you want to go there, we beat them everytime."

Well, ask Jim Harbaugh what you think of him now.

If Harbaugh did that to USC, what do you think he is going to do to his arch-rival Cal in a game that for one of the few times has the superior team.

You do the math. Stanford beats USC and Oregon by a combined score of 106-63. Cal lost to those two schools by a combined score of 72-6, and they have to face Stanford without star tailback Jahvid Best.

Are you ready for the river card? The ace on the river? The flush on the river? The full house on the river?

Stanford is going for their 12th straight home cover which is the best mark in the entire country, and I see nothing that leads me to believe they won't win this game by double digits as well.

5 DIME - ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS - So let me get this straight.

I have the 102nd ranked run defense in the entire country who in their 5 home games this year allowed almost 1,000 yards rushing to shut down Army's option attack?

A defense that in their last 2 home games versus the 30th, and 38th ranked rushing attacks in UL Monroe, and Western Kentucky they allowed 281 and 172 yards respectively.

Now they take on a rush offense ranked 16 spots better at Army at 14th in the country.

The bottom line is a 2-8 team shouldn't be favored over a service academy any time anywhere.

I mean, Army knocked off an SEC school earlier this year in Vandy for crying out loud so that right there shows you what this team is capable of.

Furthermore, this could be a home game for Army as 18 kids on their roster are from the state of Texas and you don't think there is some magic going on here.

Army has covered 8 in a row in the Lonestar State. I'm talking about 8 in a row.

I have no problem grabbing any kind of points in a game I feel Army can win outright. Simple as that.

FREE SELECTION - KENTUCKY WILDCATS

Larry Ness

10* LEGEND Play

Texas A&M took a streak of 20 consecutive non-losing seasons into Franchione's first year at College Station (2003). In his five years at this proud program, Coach Fran's best season was a 9-4 finish in 2006 (lost Holiday Bowl 45-10 to Cal to end that year!) and he had two losing years. The man he replaced, RC Slocum went 123-47-2 over seasons, with ZERO losing seasons! Mike Sherman, who spent six years as Green Bay's head coach going 57-39 with four playoff trips, took over last year with A&M finishing at 4-8. The current team is 5-5 and with Texas coming to town on Thanksgiving, the Aggies better get that important sixth win of the season Saturday vs Baylor. As for the Bears, expectations going into "Year 2" of the Art Briles era were high, with Robert Griffin at QB (15-3 ratio last season). However, Griffin was lost for the season with a knee injury in the team's third game (home to Northwestern St), with Griffin having completed 65.2 percent of his passes with a 4-0 ratio. Baylor would improve to 3-1 with a win at Kent State on October 3 but new starting QB Nick Florence doesn't have anywhere near the versatility that Griffin possessed. Baylor is 2-5 under Florence (4-6 on the season), who has completed 61.3 percent of his passes in the eight games he has played (seven starts) but has thrown just has six TDs against seven INTs on the year. He had 427 yards and three TDs in the team's 40-32 upset (Baylor was a two-TD underdog) at Missouri on November 7 but turned around and threw three iNTs in last Saturday's 47-14 loss at Texas. Baylor entered this season as the Big 12's worst team, sporting a 13-91 conference mark (.125) since 1996. Baylor's Big 12 woes are well documented. The team ended a 29-game conference losing streak in 2002 and after losing its first 37 conference road games, finally won 23-13 at Iowa St in 2005. Let's fast forward to the current season and we find that Baylor has gone 3-52 (.055) all-time in Big 12 road games. While one of those wins came just recently at Missouri, the Bears have run for 44.3 YPG (2.0 YPC) in their three big 12 road games this year, while the defense has allowed 29.7 PPG. Baylor has played at A&M every odd-year since the league's inception (1996), visiting College Station six times (this will be the 7th) while losing each game by an average score of 37.0-to-11.0 PPG! As mentioned earlier, the Aggies NEED this win to become bowl eligible and A&M is surely not expecting to upset Texas on Thanksgiving night. So how have the Aggies played at home this year? They are 4-1 SU, losing only 36-31 to Oklahoma State. The Aggies have displayed a powerhouse rushing attack in College Station this year, averaging 221.6 YPG (4.8 YPC) while scoring 40.2 PPG. In the team's four wins, those averages go up to 249.8 YPG and 42.5 PPG. QB Jerrod Johnson has been among the nation's leaders all season in total offense (currently ranks 6th at 299.7 YPG) and for the year the junior has completed 58.3 percent of his pasees with 22 TDs and just five INTs. Note that in A&M's five home games, Johnson has thrown for an average of 293.6 YPG with 15 TD passes and not a SINGLE interception. LEGEND Play on Texas A&M (10*)

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

*CODE BLUE* GOY

For a number of different reasons I believe Nevada is going to absolutely stomp New Mexico State as it pushes to remain perfect and to erase a big upset loss from last year:

Nevada won't "look past" New Mexico State to its game against Boise State next week because the Aggies upset the Wolf Pack 48-45 in Reno last season, giving New Mexico State its first -- and only -- road win in WAC play since joining the league in 2005.

Coach Chris Ault's comments on his teams game plan; "We better not look past it. We're not that good. We have to focus on what we're trying to do, how we're trying to get things done and take care of business." Spoken like a true motivator.

The Wolf Pack has scored at least 35 points in six of their last 7 games and has won seven straight.

Their top two rushers (RB, Vai Taua and QB, Colin Kaepernick) have both rushed for over 100 yards, and both average better than 7.8 yards per rush.
Nevada is 5-2 ATS its last seven and 4-2 ATS vs. conference opponents this season.

Over the last two weeks, the Wolf Pack has outscored its opponents 114 to 21.

On the other side of the field: New Mexico State is 2-3-1 ATS its last six overall.

The Aggies defensive line and secondary is going to be overwhelmed by Nevada's running game, just like everyone else has this season.

RB Seth Smith, nursing a shoulder injury suffered Oct. 31 at Ohio State, had just five carries last week at Hawaii and his status this week against Nevada is unclear.

Bottom line: New Mexico State's offense has not scored an offensive TD in four plus games.

The Aggies just finished preparing for and playing against pass happy Hawaii, and will now struggle having to deal with the exact opposite in the Wolf Packs run oriented offense.

With revenge on their mind from last years upset loss and wanting to come into their game vs. Boise State firing on all cylinders, look for NEVADA to rout the Aggies and move to 6-3 ATS their last nine as a favorite and for New Mexico State to fall to 2-4 ATS against conference opponents. 10*

Billionaires Club

Game Of The Year

Mich St.

PAYNE SPORTS

10 Units Ole Miss -3.5

This has the making of a game like last year. This line will rise and more and more people will fall into a top 10 team getting points, but lets look further into and see what Vegas sees and what I see to make this my GOW. First and foremost, LSU only has two losses to the number 1 and 2 teams in the country, but they are injury riddled. Jefferson should play, but he doesnt scare me at all as Ole Miss is starting to remind me of last year's team on how they finished. Ole Miss can finish out with 4 wins and go to the Cotton Bowl, which would be a big deal for this team with such high hopes preseason and back in top 12 by year end. Last year, Ole Miss dominated through the air with Snead beating them and their defense shut down LSU and I look for a similar performance. I do not expect this game to be a single score game by end and I forsee it being a double digit victory. McCluster comes off a memorable experience last week rushing for almost 300 yards on 25 carries as he scorched the Tennessee defense and LSU defense is suspect as we saw what Ingram did 2 weeks ago. McCluster ability to run will open up the pass for Snead where I expect for him manage the game and have a good game and get a little respect back from media. LSU is 1-7 ats their last 8 meetings and I look for this trend to continue as Ole Miss wins their 5th straight home game all by double digits including this one.

9 Units California +7

8 Units Air Force +10

8 Units Michigan St +3

7 Units Northwestern +7