Stephen Nover
75 Dime RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
I don't see battered and demoralized Syracuse being able to compete at all with Rutgers. The Orangemen can barely dress 50 players with all the injuries they have suffered.
Rutgers cracked the Top 25 and deservedly so. The Scarlet Knights' only two losses have been to top-10 powerhouses Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.
Rutgers has won seven of its last eight games. They are off a confidence-building 31-0 blanking of South Florida, a former top-25 team. The Scarlet Knights have had a couple of extra days of rest and preparation. The schedule has laid out well for them. They will be fresh for this matchup.
That's not the case for Syracuse, which has had more players lost to injuries and suspensions than perhaps any other team.
Just in the last two weeks, the Orangemen have had six players injured severely enough that they are out for the season. Syracuse has a cluster injury problem at nearly every position. The worst, though, was star wide receiver Mike Williams quitting the team. The Orangemen have no offense without him.
Rutgers has allowed just 11.8 points per game during its last eight contests. The Scarlet Knights have forced 28 turnovers during this span. Syracuse has one of the worst turnover ratios in the country.
Rutgers has been a proven profit-maker on the road covering its last seven away matchups. Syracuse is 4-10-1 against the spread the past 15 times it has been a home 'dog.
Syracuse has no bowl possibilities and has lost eight consecutive Big East games. The motivation, talent and situation is all with Rutgers. Look for the Scarlet Knights to win this game handily.
Trace Adams
2000* - Rutgers Scarlet Knights
500* - Kentucky Wildcats
500* - Kansas State Wildcats
Yes, last week's 500♦ Pay-After play was Syracuse plus the points at Louisville, and while the Orange covered, they did lose that game, and they scored only 9-points in the process.
That makes 3 straight losses for Coach Marrone's team, and they have scored only 26-points total in those 3 setbacks.
Into town comes a rested-and-ready Rutgers team that is playing just their 2nd game this month, and their first since holding South Florida to 159 yards, and 7 first downs in a 31-0 wax-job.
Rutgers has won and covered their last 3, and they have also won and covered the last 4 series meetings against the Orangemen.
The Knights have also covered 7 in a row on the road, and with Coach Schiano wanting to use this game for recruiting purposes, don't expect any let up by the visitor in this one.
42-15 is my projected final, although I have my doubts the 'Cuse will muster that many points.
2000♦ - Rutgers Scarlet Knights
So Georgia stuck it to me, and to Auburn last week in Athens. I will still go against this Bulldogs team that played an unusually "clean" game last week as far as penalties, and turnovers are concerned.
Georgia has only covered 1 of their last 8 lined home games, and they do have 21 turnovers on their stat sheet this season.
Kentucky went through a bunch of early season injuries, and now they are reaping the rewards, as the 'Cats depth has been a strong suit down the stretch for UK this season, and I honestly think Kentucky has a shot at the outright here.
The Wildcats are 14-3-1 their last 18 against the spread on the road, and they have covered ALL 3 SEC road games this season as the dog.
Last year a better Georgia team was only able to win 42-38 over Kentucky, I expect around a 4-point final again tonight.
500♦ - Kentucky Wildcats
Big 12 North Title up for grabs in Lincoln today, and while Nebraska has the home field edge, I think this number is way too high for the Huskers to clear.
Nebraska is just 2-5 against the spread under Bo Pelini when hosting the Big 12, and Kansas State has done a nice job under Bill Snyder covering 4 of their last 6 in the underdog role.
The Cornhuskers have totaled 20-points or less in 4 of their last 5, games, so tell me if they hit that price range again, how are they going to cover this impost?
Exactly, they are NOT going to cover this impost.
Take the points and the Wildcats to keep it tight at Memorial Stadium.
500♦ - Kansas State Wildcats
National Sports Service
5* Virginia/Clemson over 45.5
4* TCU/Wyoming over 48
4* Stanford -7
3* TT +6
ANTHONY REDD
50 Dime - North Carolina
John Ryan
25* GOY
Rutgers at Syracuse
Play: Syracuse
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Syracuse as they host Rutgers set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 89% probability that Syracuse will lose this game by 8 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 73-29 for 72% winners since 2004. Play against a road team after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread in weeks 10 through 13. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 49-21 for 70% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games facing an opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 63-27 ATS for 70% winners since 1999. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference matchups and is a good offensive team scoring 28-34 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG. Here is a 4th system that uses the money line and exploits false favorites with an average play of +149 producing a 51-24 mark for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. Play on a home team versus the money line after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Rutgers is off a 31-0 pasting of South Florida where they were the beneficiary of four South Florida turnovers. Note that Rutgers is just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992. In Syracuse’s last game they allowed just 34 rushing yards on 35 carries at Louisville. Syracuse is a solid 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. This play ranks among the top-25 strongest graded plays produced by my AiS spanning more than 16 seasons. The accompanying series of systems and angles serve only to reinforce the strength of this play. Best of Luck to all of us. Take Syracuse.
Mike Lineback
4* Rutgers -8.5
4* Texas A & M -5.5
Bob Valentino
30 DIME - TENNESSEE
Kelso
100 Units UCF -22
100 Units UL Monroe -3.2
15 Units North Carolina +3.2
5 Units Rutgers -8.5
4 Units Kentucky +4.5
3 Units Kansas State +16.5
Wayne Root
Billionaire Club GOY: Michigan State +3
10* Ole Miss
7* Arizona
4* California
Chris Jordan
400♦ MISSISSIPPI REBELS - Let me hit the high points ...
Mississippi has been very good at home this season, knocking off SE Louisiana 52-6, UAB 48-13, Arkansas 30-17, Northern Arizona 38-14 and most importantly, Tennessee last week, 42-17. The only setback was to Alabama, a 22-3 on Oct. 10.
And it still stings.
But this team has grown together, and as improved tremendously.
This is the final home game for this team, and I love to play good teams, in important games on Senior Night. That's exactly what this is.
And leading all seniors is Dexter McCluster, who is much more involved in the offense, as evidenced last week, when he posted school records of 282 rushing yards and 324 all-purpose yards against Tennessee. He is averaging 197 rushing yards and 262.3 all-purpose yards with five touchdowns over the last three SEC games. What do you think he is going to do for his career finale at home?
On the other side of the ball, I'm not confident about LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson getting it done against a good Mississippi defense, which ranks 14th in the nation in pass efficiency and 20th overall against the pass. Ole Miss's defense is 23rd in the nation, while its scoring defense is 12th in allowing just under 16 points per game.
LSU has won six of the last seven and seven of the last nine against the Rebels, so I'm sure Ole Miss is looking to smack this team around while it can. Last season, the Rebels held LSU to 13 points, which snapped the Tigers' school-record streak of game scoring at least 21 points at 31 straight contests. ANd I think this year's version of Ole Miss better.
Take the Rebels
John Fina
GOY - Arizona
Karl Garrett
50 DIMER - KENTUCKY WILDCATS
10 DIMER - STANFORD CARDINAL
50 DIMER - KENTUCKY WILDCATS
Georgia got a big monkey off their backs last Saturday night under the lights against Auburn, and while they may win tonight, this impost is simply too big against a dangerous Wildcats team.
Kentucky is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season on the SEC road, and they are on an overall road lined spread run of 14-3-1 their last 18 games!
Georgia's cover last weekend was their first in their last 8 lined home games, and while the Bulldogs may have done away with their senseless penalties, and turnovers - 21 this year! - for a week, those mistakes have a way of coming back when you least expect them.
The Bulldogs were able to win 42-38 last year in Lexington, but that Georgia team was hands-down better than this year's edition, and I don't see them being so lucky this time around.
UK has their health back, and while their stars were injured, Coach Brooks was able to develop some much-needed depth on the squad.
This game is decided by a field goal, 4-points at most.
Take the 'Cats plus the number.
10 DIMER - STANFORD CARDINAL
The Tree treated me fine last week, and I will go to the well with them again in The Big Game!
Cal's last visit to Palo Alto saw Stanford win 20-13 in Jim Harbaugh's first year at the helm. That cover is part of an 11-game Stanford spread winning streak at home, and right now the Cardinal is not to be messed with.
Toby Gerhart is a beast, and QB Luck is a legitimate threat. That is a deadly combination for the Golden Bears to contend with.
Cal is on a 2-5 spread slide their last 7 on-line, and I have seen them enough this season to know a "soft" team that will cave when their will gets broken.
Look for the marauding Cardinal to break that will tonight, as Stanford's magical mystery tour continues.
Lay the wood.
PPP
5% Marshall
Lenny Stevens
20* Kentucky
20* BYU
10* UConn
10* Arkansas
10* Ole Miss
WAYNE ROOT
Billionaire GOY - MICHIGAN STATE
Michigan State is bowl eligible for the third straight season under third-year coach Mark Dantonio—just the third such streak in school history. Does Michigan St need motivation? Some think so. This streak still could have an unhappy ending, depending on how several games go Saturday. The Spartans are not guaranteed a bowl game unless they upset Penn State on senior day at Spartan Stadium. (they go if Ohio St beat Mich). “It’s never a guarantee...says WAR. The Spartans will say goodbye to 19 seniors before Saturday’s game against Penn State. The notables include DE Trevor Anderson, LT Rocco Cironi, C Joel Nitchman, RG Brendon Moss, WR Blair White, PK Brett Swenson, S Danny Fortener and LB Brandon Denson. I believe that would be quite a milestone for this group in terms of I’m not sure how many senior groups have won seven games for three straight years.” according to their coach. Michigan State is looking to duplicate what it did two years ago. The Spartans were 5-5 in Dantonio’s first season, facing a trip to Purdue and a home game with Penn State. They scored upset wins in both, earning a trip the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando, Fla. Mark Dantonio said he is using that as an example to motivate his team.Offensive Coordinator Don Treadwell put together an aggressive game plan against Purdue, throwing deep often and weaving in reverses and wildcat formations. WAR thinks more of the same would be a good idea against Penn State's defense. the Spartans usually play Penn State well at home. MSU is 8-4 in the series at Spartan Stadium. WAR says another key to this game is that the Spartans are uncommonly healthy for this time of year.
Millionaire - CALIFORNIA
Known as the "BIG GAME". This game takes on a new meaning when the word RIVALRY is spoken. WAR loves to take the dog in most rivalry games and this is no exception. Led by the running of Gerhart and freshman quarterback Andrew Luck, coach Jim Harbaugh’s 14th-ranked Cardinal (7-3, 6-2 Pac-10) are playing for a chance at the conference title when they host California (7-3, 4-3).This is the first time since 1991 that both teams enter the rivalry game with at least seven wins.“You want both opponents to be very high-skilled, highly ranked, you want it to be THE Big Game and I think we’re going to get that this year". The Golden Bears have dominated their rivals this decade, winning six of seven since Tedford took over in 2002. The one loss still haunts the Bears, who lost six of their final seven regular-season games in 2007, including the rivalry game to Stanford in Harbaugh’s first season. “Losing in ’06 to USC was pretty bad, but losing the Axe in ’07 was the worst feeling I ever had in my life,” Tedford said. “It tears you apart and tears the community apart.” One of the biggest problems facing the Cardinal this week seemed unfathomable just a couple years ago: overconfidence. WAR agrees wholeheartedly. Stanford put itself in this position by scoring 106 points in the wins over the Ducks and Trojans. First came a 51-42 victory over then-No. 7 Oregon that put the Cardinal into the Top 25 for the first time in eight years.They followed that by scoring the most points ever against USC in a 55-21 victory over the then-No. 11 Trojans. WAR says there a 2 things you shouldn't wake: A sleeping bear and a Golden Bear
No Limit - ARIZONA
There is no ambiguity to it. If Arizona wins it final three games, it will go to its first Rose Bowl ever. There will be nothing easy about the final three games, however, and the Wildcats will have to do deal with being directly in the spotlight’s glare. Potential distractions before this week’s home game against Oregon include extra interviews and the excitement over the first-ever appearance of ESPN’s popular GameDay program in Tucson. “I think its fantastic for the team, I think its fantastic for the city, and I think its fantastic for the fans,” said coach. This will be the final home game for 23 Arizona seniors, including a dozen regular starters. Eight of the seniors are four-year lettermen. “These guys have really been a big part of what we wanted to do,” said coach Mike Stoops. “These guys took a risk in coming in and shared the same vision.” WAR says it's all about HEART. Sucking it up and giving 100%. He likes that in these Wildcats.Arizona hasn’t often been in position to have a chance at the Rose Bowl at this point in the calendar, so this is the most important home game the Wildcats have ever played this late in the season. With a loss, the dream of a Pac-10 title is gone. Win, and Arizona is effectively alone in first. And that scenario is just fine with the King of Vegas Gambling. That's the challenge WAR has daily in his life and sees no reason why that should bother the Arizona Wildcats. At least they know for what stakes they are playing
Perfect Play - MISSISSIPPI
Favorite Of Week - TENNESSEE
Primetime TV Game Of Week - IOWA
Vegas Legend - BOSTON COLLEGE