Wunderdog
3 Units Purdue -3
How bad is Indiana? They are 1-4 on the road this season, losing by 24 points per game on average. Not many teams have allowed 80 points in a game but the Hoosiers did just that two weeks ago at Wisconsin. They followed that up by allowing 41 last week to Penn State. All indications are that this team has packed it in for the season. When you consider they have scored just 132 in all their Big-10 games on the season, it doesn't look good here for the Hoosiers. Purdue finally got some decent QB numbers from Rob Henry, as they hit Michigan State with 31 on the road. The Hoosiers have come up empty on the road time and time again, accumulating a 14-29-2 ATS mark in their last 45. Purdue is cashing in big vs. teams with a losing record where they have been a highly profitable 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26. They are also 12-3 ATS at home when facing a bad team (.400 or worse). Boilermakers get it done here.
2 Units Arkansas -3.5
The Tigers are 10-1 and currently reside in 5th place in the latest BCS Poll. The defense has carried them this season but in their big games, the defense has cracked, allowing 29 to Florida, 24 to Auburn and 21 to Alabama not to mention 36 last week to Mississippi. The offense is average, so facing a high octane Arkansas offense led by Ryan Mallett, on the road, is a big chore. The Hogs are almost impossible to stop at home on the offensive end as over the last two years spanning 11 games at home, they are averaging 45 ppg. The Razorbacks are a sharp 12-2 ATS in their last 14 after a win, while LSU is 1-5-1 ATS after piling up 40+ in their last game. They are also 11-21 ATS under Les Miles when coming off a home win. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. Arkansas. Meanwhile, Arkansas is 11-3 ATS since last sesaon vs. winning opponents. I like the home team to win and cover this one.
3 Units on UAB -3
The Blazers have become a much better offensive team after opting for QB Bryan Ellis. He has charged the offense, and the Blazers are now a threat on every snap. Rice came together in a big way a week ago, stunning East Carolina on this same field. The concern here for the Owls is a defense that has allowed 314 points in their last seven games, or just shy of 45 ppg. That makes it tough vs. a team with an ever improving offense, especially since the Owls have only seen 45 themselves twice the entire season. The Blazers rose up last week on defense allowing just 15, and in their last eight after allowing less than 20 they have only failed to cover once. The Owls are 1-6-1 ATS after a game piling up 450 or more on offense. I like UAB in this one.
3 Units Texas Tech -9
The Houston offense lost their biggest weapon in the offseason in Case Keenum. Although still potent, the offenseisn't the same.That has put more pressure on an already weak defense. Last week they surrendered 650 yards and 59 points to Southern Miss. Houston touched 40 on eight occasions in each of the last two years under Keenum, but just four times in nine games this season without him. Tech has the gamebreakers to take advantage and a defense that isn't great, but better than the Cougars. Tech can match scores, but get more stops along the way to pull away in this one. The Cougars are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 posted as a dog from 3.5-10, while the Red Raiders are 4-1 at home as a favorite of 3.5-10. Houston is also just 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games vs. good passing teams (those averaging 250+ yards per game). I like Tech here.
3 Units Penn State +1.5
Joe Pa is 83 years old and every time we reach the home finale at Penn State, one has to wonder if this is his last game in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions are aware of that. They face a Michigan State team that is a very soft 10-1. The Spartans beat Wisconsin (a big win). But, they were drubbed by Iowa 37-6. They beat four teams with losing records in their out of conference schedule. And due to some luck, they avoided Ohio State, who is not on the schedule this season. The Spartans have dodged a lot of bullets this year, but I think they will get hit by this one. Penn State is 19-3 in Happy Valley in their last 22 here, never an easy out. The Spartans have never won here since the Nittany Lions joined the Big-10. I like Joe Pa's crew here.
Marc Lawrence
Late Phone Plays
10* Mississippi
4* BYU
3* Clemson
3* Oklahoma
Score
400% Missouri
DOUBLE DRAGON
HYDRA
FLORIDA +3 (-120)
TOP
OHIO STATE -16.5
OREGON STATE +13
LSU +3.5
STRONG
NC STATE -2
OKLAHOMA +3
NOTRE DAME +4
REGULAR
HAWAII -26
SAN DIEGO STATE -24
TCU -43.5
DR BOB
3* PURDUE -3
3* OKLAHOMA STATE -2½
2* HAWAII -27
2* LOUISIANA TECH -11½
2* SAN DIEGO STATE -24
Tim Trushel
ACC Rivalry GOY
20* Duke
Don Wallace Sports
3* Ohio St. -16.5
3* Tennessee -2.5
3* Stanford -13.5
3* Arkansas -3.5
3* BYU +9
ASA
5* Oklahoma State
4* Mississippi
3* Western Kentucky
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket: Kentucky
Virginia
Notre Dame
David Malinsky
4* KENTUCKY over TENNESSEE
We have been hoping all week that the 3’s would hang on in this one, but instead they have become tougher to find as each day’s trading came to a close. So we will list it two ways, and you can play accordingly, based on what you have access to – at +3 we call it a 4*, but at +2 or 2.5 we stay in play, but only at the 3* level.
Much has been written about the 25-game win streak that Tennessee brings in this series, and often when that is the case we have an underdog that will come in lacking confidence. That is absolutely not the case – the Wildcats know to a man that they are capable of playing toe-to-toe against the Volunteers. The current 5th-year SR’s have had a series of point blank defeats, starting with a 17-12 loss here in 2006, when they had the lead in the fourth quarter, and two of the three losses since then went into O.T.
The key this week is that they have both the veteran leadership, courtesy of SR’s Derrick Locke and Mike Hartline, and JR Randall Cobb, in the skill positions, and the physical energy to make it happen. Rarely does a team come into a Game #12 setting with as much energy as Kentucky can bring this week. Three weeks ago it was little more than a scrimmage vs. Charleston Southern. Two weeks ago it was a comfortable win against a Vanderbilt team that is not physical in the trenches. Last week was a bye. So there has been plenty of time to not only rest physically for this matchup, but also to have a major edge in terms of game planning. The Vols will have a difficult time matching that energy – their bye came back in the middle of October, and a depth-shy roster has been worn awfully thin.
Depth does not just show in the obvious ways on offense and defense, but on the special teams as well – when you are short on numbers it is not easy to have your best players on those units, since you do not want to risk injury, or have them wear down even more. Hence why Tennessee is #61 in the nation in net punting, #110 in punt returns, and #92 in kickoff returns. In a close matchup those special teams loom large here, and we call for Kentucky to finally get that series break-through.
Bryan Leonard
PAC 10 Powerhouse
Washington at California
Play: California
The Huskies haven't been very competitive on the road this year losing the last two games by margins of 37 and 30 points. While they did upset USC in a huge game for head coach Greg Sarkisian and his staff, they also lost at BYU in the opener when the Cougars were simply terrible. Off a bye last week Washington pulled away in the second half and beat UCLA 24-7 at home. But now with a road trip to Pullman next week to face instate rival Washington State, the Huskies are in a sandwich situation.
The Golden Bears have been simply awful away from Berkeley but at home they have been dominant. When not facing the top ranked teams of Oregon and Stanford the Bears have won by margins of 49, 45, 28 and 33 points here. Even in a loss to Oregon they gave the top ranked team in the country all they could handle in a 15-13 defeat. Last week they ran into a very physical Stanford team and the Cardinal simply dominated. But against the more finesse teams on the schedule California has been unstoppable here.
Cal has dominated Washington in Berkeley winning by margins of 41, 7 and 47 points the last three visits. Last year the Huskies embarrassed the Golden Bears 42-10 in Seattle, look for payback from the host.
Dwayne Bryant
2 Units Mississippi
2 Units Clemson
1 Unit Penn St. +1.5
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
5* Ohio State
4* San Diego State
4* Penn State
3* California
3* Missouri
Brandon Lang
North Carolina State -1.5
Andy Fanelli
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Anthony Redd
Oklahoma
Brett Atkins
Florida St
South Carolina
Oklahoma St
Craig Davis
Oklahoma St
Ole Miss
UConn
Derek Mancini
Cincinnati
Steve Budin
Oklahoma St
Trace Adams
UConn
Tennessee
Rhode Island
Jay McNeil
Iowa
Joel Tyson
Tennessee