Tony Stoffo
Tennessee vs. Memphis
Play: Tennessee -19.5
The Sharps usually never jump on a big road favorite when the lines come out. However they sure did here pounding Tennessee hard as soon as this line came out. The Vols sure need to pile it on someone and Memphis is the perfect fit here. After having to face Oregon, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina this Tigers squad will look like a high school team lining up against them as they rank 115th in total offense and 119th in total defense. Plus let's not forget these rankings were attained basically against CUSA competition. Tennessee doesn't step off the gas here and roll to the big blowout win in this spot. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC.
David Malinsky
4* TEXAS over KANSAS STATE
One of the first things we look for in November are those high level programs that are having disappointing seasons, when we see the public write them off. The better the program the better the talent, obviously, and in many cases the better the talent the more pride they bring. While we read media reports talking about such good teams “packing it in” for the season (as the coaches and players also read), we often find the opposite – good competitors that are frustrated by losing, and keep working hard to right the ship. Many times, in fact, seeing the media and their own fans belittle them brings an even greater sense of urgency going forward.
Which brings us to Texas, as a program, and this short line, courtesy of the betting markets, that we have to work with in this matchup. We can understand the power ratings dropping – if you lose to U.C.L.A, Iowa State and Baylor at home that should happen. But not this far. This is still the same kind of talent base that has been in BCS bowls four times in the last six seasons, twice playing for the national championship, and take particular note of the realities of those three defeats – they led those games by 19 first downs and 238 yards on the field, but did not get the ball to bounce their way often, going -6 in turnovers.
Last week’s loss to Baylor, an expensive one for our pockets, was a good example. They controlled the early flow as expected, but consistently came up short in the red zone, leading only 19-10 midway through the third quarter because they had to settle for four made FG’s. Yet one more drive stalled, courtesy of an offensive pass interference penalty, and instead of 26-10 or 22-10 it stayed on 19 when a FG attempt was missed. Then came the kind of sequence that has haunted them all season – Baylor broke a 69-yard TD run on the next snap, then got a quick INT on a tipped pass on the ensuing Longhorn possession, returning it to the 11-yard line to set up another quick TD. And there goes the game.
Texas will not be beaten by quick strikes this week – Kansas State lacks such ability, and did not have a play of longer than 17 yards in last week’s loss to Oklahoma State. That means a chance for the superior talent to take control over the course of 60 minutes, and note just how wide the gap is – these two teams have played four common opponents this season, and Texas wins those comparisons by 24 first downs and 724 yards. The latter figure is as wide as we are ever going to find in a game in this price range, but the scoreboards hid that, because the Wildcats were a net +9 in turnovers vs. the Longhorns in those games.
Do the Longhorns bring the proper psychological profile to take advantage? We like what we are reading, especially from Mack Brown, in terms of wanting to play hard to prove the naysayers wrong - ”We had 101,000 consultants (Saturday night). None of them were paid. … When you’re losing, people want you to do all sorts of things. You should fire coaches, fire players, and burn the building. That’s not the way you win. We’ve played around here with a great attitude for a long time. … I’m not worried about anything except this football team getting better and getting back to where we were, and we will do both.” They do not need to do all that much here to cover this bargain-basement price, and we take full advantage.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
MMA - Machida & Hughes
Joseph D'Amico
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers
Play: Alabama Crimson Tide -6½
This is a battle between two 7-1 SEC West squads. The winner of this game has gone to the SEC Title game each of the L3 seasons. Both teams have great defenses with ‘Bama yielding 12.5 PPG and LSU giving up 15.6 PPG. Both squads are healthy and both come off of a bye week. The Tide won each of the L2 meetings, 27-21 and 24-15, covering both contests. Alabama won their L2 games over Mississippi and Tennessee by a combined score of 64-20 while LSU comes off of a 24-17 loss to Auburn. I give a huge edge at the QB position to Alabama. Greg McElroy has tallied 1781 YP, a 70.8% completion rate, and a11/3 TD/INT ratio. LSU QBs Jefferson and Lee have combined for 1071 YP, 4 TDs and 9 big INTs. The Tiger passing game is ranked last in the SEC and hasn’t thrown for more than 154 yards since Week 1. They can not afford to be a one-dimensional unit against the very tough Alabama defense. The LSU offense is RB Ridley. He has posted 6 TDs on 724 YR. The Tide will key on him and force the QBs to make mistakes downfield. Alabamas offense is complimented by RBs Ingram and Richardson, who have combined for 1150 YR and 13 TDs. With several undefeated squads facing one another over the next few weeks, HC Nick Saban knows that with a big win and some “style points” here, the team has a shot at the BCS Title game. The road team is 11-2-1 ATS their L14 meetings. The Tide is 6-1 ATS their L7 games played at LSU, 10-4 ATS their L14 road games, and 7-3 ATS their L10 overall. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS their L4 as a home ‘dog, 7-18-1 ATS their L26 at home, and 1-4 ATS their L5 overall. I like Alabama here.
DR BOB
3 Star Selection
OKLAHOMA ST. (-7.5) 45 Baylor 28
I’ve been on Oklahoma State since day 1 this season and I’m 5-1 when I’ve used them as either a Best Bet or Strong Opinion. I’m on the Cowboys again this week in a combination of line value and a very strong situation. I like Baylor’s team and the Bears actually have a better offense (7.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) than Oklahoma State does (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl). However, Baylor is a bad defensive team, allowing 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl against an average defensive unit. Baylor has only faced 3 better than average offensive teams and the Bears allowed 45 points to TCU, 45 points to Texas Tech, and 42 points to Kansas State. That does not bode well for them here and I expect the Cowboys to hit their average of 45 points per game.
While Baylor won’t be able to stop Oklahoma State’s offense, the Cowboys have a good defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) that can at least slow down the Bears’ potent attack enough to win this game by double-digits. Oklahoma State did give up 7.1 yppl and 51 points to Nebraska’s great offense, but that was actually a decent effort since Nebraska would average 7.1 yppl on the road against an average defensive team. Baylor’s median offensive output is 30.5 points in 8 Division 1A games and Oklahoma State’s defense is better than average and I think the Bears are likely to be held to under 30 points in this game.
In addition to being better overall from the line of scrimmage, Oklahoma State also has significantly better special teams and my math model gives the Cowboys a solid 55% chance of covering at -7 ½ points (based on the historical performance of my model). The chances of Oklahoma State covering are greatly enhanced by two very strong situations that apply to this game. The Bears apply to a negative 23-78-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win at Texas and Oklahoma State applies to a very strong 79-18-3 ATS home momentum situation. Those two angles are completely independent of one another, as they’ve only intersected one time (an easy spread win by the home team), so Oklahoma State’s chance of covering is over 60% with the situations and math combined. I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 points.
3 Star Selection
Boston College (-3.0) 26 WAKE FOREST 14
Boston College has struggled offensively all season, but the Eagles can play defense and they are actually a pretty good team. BC has actually played even from the line of scrimmage against a tough schedule of Division 1A opponents (4.5 points better than average), averaging 283 yards at 4.5 yards per play while allowing just 299 yards at 4.4 yppl. The Eagles are slightly improved offensively with Chase Rettig at quarterback, but their attack is still 0.5 yards per play worse than average. Boston College hasn’t had the luxury of facing a worse than average defensive team since they scored 38 points against Weber State in their opener. Today they get another shot at a bad defense, as Wake Forest has allowed 472 yards per game and 6.4 yppl in 7 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. As you can see, the Boston College offense and the Wake Forest defense are equally bad.
BC’s advantage in this game is their great defense (4.4 yppl allowed to 1A teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) going up against a sub-par Wake Forest attack that is 0.7 yppl worse than average for the season overall and 0.4 yppl worse than average with Tanner Price at quarterback. Boston College is also significantly better in special teams and my math model projects a 353 yards at 5.3 yppl to 246 yards at 3.9 yppl advantage for the Eagles in this game, which should be enough to get their second consecutive win (they beat Clemson last week). Wake Forest, meanwhile, has lost 6 consecutive games since starting the season with wins over bad teams Presbyterian and Duke. What we have here is two equally poor offensive teams (BC -0.5 yppl and WF -0.4 yppl) with one team having one of the best defensive units in the country (BC 1.2 yppl better than average) while the other team is bad defensively (WF 0.5 yppl worse than average). My math model gives BC a 59% chance of covering at -3 points and the Eagles apply to a 56-17-2 ATS late season road favorite situation. I’ll take Boston College in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 ½ or -4 points.
2 Star Selection
UAB (-10.0) 34 Marshall 17
Marshall has covered the spread only twice all season and they were lucky to cover last week (needed a 2 point defensive conversion against UTEP to cover by 1 point). I have no problem going against the Thundering Herd again this week, especially on the road where this year’s team is continuing a long tradition of poor play away from home. Marshall is 0-4 ATS on the road this season and 20-42-1 ATS as a visitor since 2000. The Thundering Herd also aren’t nearly as good as UAB. Marshall’s offense has averaged just 4.8 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and their rating would be 0.2 yppl worse without a 96 yard TD pass against West Virginia. UAB is bad defensively, allowing 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team, but the Blazers’ stop unit actually has a 0.2 yppl advantage over Marshall’s offense.
The bigger advantage for UAB is their good attack (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) going up against a poor Marshall defense that’s 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). UAB also is likely to run considerably more plays than Marshall given the Herd’s -10.7 play differential per game and UAB’s +5.6 play differential. My math model projects 478 yards at 6.5 yppl for UAB and just 317 yards at 5.2 yppl for Marshall in this game and the Blazers have slight edges in projected turnovers and special teams to go along with the home field edge. My math model gives UAB a solid 56% chance of covering at -9 ½ points (based on the historical performance of my math model) and the Blazers apply to a 42-7 ATS home favorite momentum situation that is based on last week’s upset win as a double-digit dog at Southern Miss. I’ll take UAB in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
3 Star Selection
LOUISIANA TECH (pick) 37 Fresno St. 27
Louisiana Tech is an underrated team that struggled early in the season without their starting quarterback. Ross **** completed 15 of 19 passes in the opening game against Grambling State before getting hurt and he missed the Bulldogs’ first 3 games against Division 1A competition – losses to Texas A&M, Navy, and Southern Miss by an average margin of 16 points. * returned in week 5, coming off the bench against Hawaii and he’s started the last 3 games while improving the Louisiana Tech offense. For the season Louisiana Tech has been 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively (5.2 yards per play against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but * and his 68% completion percentage is a huge upgrade over the other 2 quarterbacks, who completed 59% of their passes. * has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and he was able to move the ball pretty well against a very good Boise State defense last week (394 total yards and 20 points). The other Louisiana Tech quarterbacks averaged just 4.8 yppp against 1A opponents that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB, so you can see how much better * has been. Louisiana Tech’s offense has averaged 5.9 yards per play with * in the game against Division 1A opposition that would combine to allow just 5.2 yppl to an average team. That attack should have no trouble moving the ball against a Fresno State defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl this season to 1A teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. * will have success with his short, accurate passes while the Louisiana Tech rushing attack (4.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) will feast on a horrible Fresno defensive front that’s allowed 6.2 yprp to teams that would combine to average just 4.4 yprp against an average team). Louisiana Tech’s offense has a huge 1.2 yppl advantage in this game and should move the ball with ease.
Fresno State will also be able to move the ball, but their average attack (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) has only a 0.8 yppl advantage over Louisiana Tech’s leaky defense (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). Louisiana Tech not only has a 0.4 yppl advantage from the line of scrimmage but the Bulldogs have an edge in projected turnovers that offsets Fresno’s advantage in special teams. Louisiana Tech has averaged -1.3 in turnover margin in their 7 games against Division 1A opponents, but that was because their two backup quarterbacks threw 9 interceptions in 3 games when * was out. **** has only thrown 2 picks on 161 pass attempts this season and he’s thrown just 10 interceptions in 650 career pass attempts for a very low 1.5% interception rate. With Louisiana Tech able to move the ball consistently without turnovers they should be able to win this game at home, where they are 12-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. My math model gives Louisiana Tech a 61% chance of covering in this game andI’ll take Louisiana Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars from -1 ½ to -3 points.
3 Star Selection
TEXAS A&M (+3.0) 34 Oklahoma 26
Oklahoma has proven that they can overwhelm bad teams like Iowa State and Colorado, but the Sooners are not good enough to out-play good teams and Texas A&M is an underrated good team. In 7 games against Division 1A opposition the Aggies have averaged 483 yards at 5.8 yppl while allowing 358 yards at just 4.8 yppl. A&M is a deceiving 4-3 straight up in those games because of a -6 in turnover margin, which is not something that is likely to continue. In fact, the Aggies have committed just 3 total turnovers in their last 3 games (all 3 last week and they still won easily for us). A&M is even less likely to beat themselves with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, as Tannehill has completed 73% of his 70 passes while throwing just 1 interception while former starter Jerrod Johnson was completing just 56.6% of his passes with a 3.2% interception rate. Tannehill has faced easier competition but his compensated numbers are still much better than Johnson’s even after accounting for the possibility of variance. Texas A&M is 0.4 yppl better than average offensively for the season and I rate the Aggies’ attack at 0.7 yppl better than average with Tannehill pulling the trigger. Oklahoma’s defense, meanwhile, has given up 5.3 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yppl against an average team. I decided to throw out the Sooners’ horrible defensive numbers from their opening game against Utah State (allowing a sub-par quarterback 8.0 yards per pass play) and doing so makes the Sooners 0.4 yppl better than average defensively, which is still 0.3 yppl worse than the A&M offense.
Oklahoma’s offense is also at a disadvantage in this game, as the Sooners have averaged a modest 5.7 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while the Texas A&M defense is 0.7 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit). Texas A&M is better on both sides of the ball I don’t expect turnovers to be an issue for them as they were early in the season (which is why they are underrated). Oklahoma, meanwhile, continues to be overrated and the Sooners have played just one good game all season against a good team (a big win over Florida State). The Sooners were out-played by Utah State (5.4 yppl to 5.6 yppl), by Air Force (4.9 yppl to 6.1 yppl), by Cincinnati (5.0 yppl to 6.6 yppl), by Texas (4.3 yppl to 5.9 yppl) and by Missouri (5.4 yppl to 6.0 yppl) and were lucky to win 4 of those games because of a +8 in turnover margin in the 4 close wins. Without the positive variance in turnovers in those 4 close wins the Sooners probably would have an extra two losses and be 5-3 right now – which is actually what their stats suggest that they should be. A&M hasn’t fared well either against good teams, losing straight up to Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri, but the Aggies out-gained those teams 418 yards to 404 yards and were 0.9 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage after compensating for how good those teams are (they were out-played by 0.8 yppl but Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri – teams would out-gain an average team by 1.7 yppl). Texas A&M will be without leading rusher Christine Michael, but Michael’s average of 5.0 ypr should be replaced more than adequately by former starter Cyrus Gray, who is averaging 5.3 ypr this season on 78 carries and has averaged 4.94 ypr the last two seasons (1171 yards on 237 rushes), which is barely any different than the 5.05 ypr that Michael has rushed for since last season (1475 yards on 292 rushes).
My math model projects Texas A&M with a 462 yards to 411 yards edge in this game even with the Sooners expected to run 4 more plays than the Aggies. Oklahoma does have an edge in special teams, but my model favors Texas A&M to win straight up and the Aggies apply to a 65-15-2 ATS home momentum situation while Oklahoma applies to a negative 26-74-1 ATS situation. I’ll take Texas A&M in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2-Stars at pick or -1.
Opinions
MICHIGAN ST. (-24.0) 43 Minnesota 14
Normally teams that lose their first game of the season after a 5-0 start or better tend to letdown the next week when facing a losing team. However, the Spartans also apply to some very good big home favorite bounce-back situations that are based on the large margin that they lost to Iowa by (6-37). That was a bad loss, but Michigan State is still a very good team that has out-gained a better than average schedule of teams by an average of 6.6 yards per play to 5.0 yppl. The offense should flourish in this game against a horrible Minnesota defense that’s given up 7.0 yppl (to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and is down a couple of key starters this week with DT Brandon Kirksey suspended for a game and CB Michael Carter suspended for the rest of the season for academic reasons. Minnesota’s offense is decent (just 0.1 yppl worse than average), but the Spartans are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) and should hold the Gophers’ attack in check. Michigan State hasn’t been as efficient with their yards as they should be (i.e. they should have a bigger scoring margin than they do), so there is some value in favor of the Spartans here. In fact, my math model gives Michigan State a 57.9% chance of covering at -24 points (based on the historical performance of my model). I’m still a bit concerned about a possible letdown even though there are other angles that favor MSU, so I’ll resist making this game a Best Bet.I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less.
Iowa (-17.0) 35 INDIANA 13
Iowa has held 5 of their 8 opponents to 7 points or fewer with the only teams to score more than 7 points being good offensive teams Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Indiana has averaged 5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, so the Hoosiers fall into the category of below average offensive team and that probably spells trouble for them against Iowa’s great defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team). Indiana has only faced two better than average defensive teams this season and the Hoosiers were held to 10 points by Ohio State and to 13 points by Illinois – so I don’t expect them to score more than that against Iowa today. Iowa is averaging 6.4 yppl and 33.7 points against Division 1A teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team and Indiana allowed 38 points or more to the only two better than average offensive teams that they faced – 42 to Michigan and 38 to Ohio State. Asking Iowa to win by more than 17 points isn’t asking too much and my math model gives the Hawkeyes a profitable 55% chance of covering at -17 points. I’ll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at -17 or less.
UTAH (+4.5) 24 TCU 23
When two unbeaten teams, both at least 6-0, get together the home underdog/pick is now 9-1 straight up (and 9-1 ATS) with Missouri beating Oklahoma adding to that a few weeks ago. Utah also applies to a 64-23-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 76-28-3 ATS statistical profile indicator while Utah applies to a negative 9-43 ATS unbeaten road team angle. The technical analysis is pretty strongly in favor of the Utes here and my math model favors TCU by 4 points – so the line is fair. TCU’s defense has been dominating bad offensive teams lately and that unit is 1.2 yards per play better than average for the season (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The Horned Frogs have been just as good against the 4 good offensive teams that they’ve faced, allowing a combined 5.2 yppl to Oregon State, Baylor, SMU, and Air Force – teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Utah’s offense is 1.2 yppl better than average (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 to an average attack) and the Utes have had mixed results against the two better than average defensive teams that they’ve faced – averaging 6.4 yppl against a very good Pitt defense and just 4.4 yppl last week against Air Force. Utah’s defense is 0.5 yppl better than average, allowing 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defense and that unit shut down a good Pitt offense (4.2 yppl) while struggling last week against the Air Force option, which probably doesn’t apply since a lot of good defensive teams can struggle against an option offense that they’re not used to seeing. TCU’s offense has been 1.4 yppl better than average so far this season (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl), but that attack was slowed by a better than average SMU defense (5.3 yppl in that game) and by a better than average BYU defense (5.5 yppl), so TCU’s attack may not be as good, relatively, when confronted with a good defensive team. Utah’s advantage in this game is their great special teams, which could come into play in what should be a tightly contested game. This game is priced correctly, but the situational analysis is strongly in favor of Utah as a home underdog and I’ll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.
SMU (-6.5) 33 TEXAS EL PASO 21
UTEP has played an incredibly easy schedule this season and SMU will be the toughest team that the Miners have faced since losing 24-54 at Houston in week 2. El Paso has gained and allowed 5.6 yppl this season, but they’ve done so against teams that would combine to be out-gained 4.7 yppl to 6.1 yppl by an average Division 1A team – so the Miners are not close to being a mediocre team. SMU has out-gained their opponents 6.6 yppl to 5.1 yppl while rating at 0.9 yppl better than average on offense and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, so the Mustangs should have no trouble winning this game – even on the road. SMU has faced 4 teams that are about UTEP’s caliber and they’ve won all 4 of those games by double-digit margins over UAB (by 21 points at home), Washington State (by 14 points at home), Rice (by 11 points on the road), and last week at Tulane (14 points). I’ll call for another double-digit win by the Mustangs over a bad team, as my math model gives SMU a 55.5% chance over covering at -6 ½ points. I’ll consider SMU a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket - Rice
Miami
Oklahoma St.
Arkansas
Oregon St.
Texas A&M Over
The Boss
500% Okla St
300% Parlay - Neb - Mich St - Okla St
200% Dog - Haw
100% Army - La Tech - Utah St
Maddux Sports
Navy
Texas A&M
Iowa St
San Diego St
Kent St
La Tech
Washington St
Rocky Sheridan
10* Alabama Crimson Tide -6
Jim Feist
Illinois
Hawaii
Arizona Over
Oregon State
Arizona
Indiana Over
Arkansas
Navy
North Carolina St
Louisiana Tech
DOUBLE DRAGON
ALABAMA -6.5
OREGON STATE -5
OKLAHOMA -2
TCU -4.5
FLORIDA -14
LOUISIANA TECH -2.5
Scott Spreitzer
Morning Massacre - Oklahoma St -8
Larry Ness
Under the Radar GOY
10* Troy Trojans -12
Sam Clayton
2* Michigan -3
Let me start out by saying I'm an Illinois alum, but also a realist. I had Illinois getting the points against OSU and had the UNDER in ILL/MSU earlier this year. For me, this is a play on Michigan or nothing. Illinois has been playing unbelievable, there's no question. But there comes a time every single year where they lay an egg. That sounds a little mundane, but bear with me. Everybody is pointing to Illinois' impressive SOS and trying draw a parallel seeing that Illinois (W) and Michigan (L) both played in Happy Valley. However, those were two completely different situations.
When Penn State hosted Illinois, they were coming off a very physical drubbing against the Hawkeyes and the wind was out of their sails. True freshman Robert Bolden was still under center and he was as turnover-prone as any quarterback in the Big Ten. That said, last week against Michigan, Joe Pa challenged his players to make a statement, the team had some momentum after the Minnesota game and they really clicked on all cylinders. Royster had a great game running the football and the combination of McGloin/Robinson at QB was very serviceable.
What am I getting at . . . well, just like Penn State had a HUGE motivational angle this past weekend, I expect this to be a signature win in the eyes of Rich Rodriguez and Michigan -- a chance to play in front of 105,000+ screaming fans and win their 6th game of the year for bowl eligibility. Illinois' passing game will struggle this week after playing two pass defense cupcakes in Indiana and Purdue. Unfortunately, RS FR Nathan Scheelhaase has a little too much confidence in his last two performances, but if he thinks he's going to go on the road and throw the way he has been, it will be the MSU game all over again.
Michigan will be extremely revved up for this ball game and there's no question that Denard Robinson is much better at home than Terrelle Pryor is on the road. Illinois does not have the horses for a shootout, which is exactly what Michigan wants to do and exactly what the total (57.5) indicates. Ron Zook wants absolutely ZERO part of a high scoring barnburner, especially on the road. Don't let their two consecutive 40-point performances fool you, Illinois scored almost half those via special teams and short fields.
Robinson and the offense, believe it or not, have only gotten better the past three weeks against the likes of Michigan State, Iowa and Penn State. Illinois on the contrary has been in a real comfort zone, playing a bunch of pushovers and enjoying home cooking in Champaign. I like the hungry home team trying to avoid a fourth straight loss. I think the Illinois linebackers will have a difficult time containing Denard and let's not forget that Michigan opts for touchdowns over field goals given their special teams predicaments in the kicking game. Line movement seems to agree with all that cashola on the Illini.
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
5* Wisconsin
4* Alabama
4* Nebraska
3* La Tech
3* Utah