LPW Sports Forecast
10 Unit Game of Week - Wisconsin -20 over Purdue
Purdue is a beaten up and dismantled team at this point in season and catch Badgers on 2 weeks rest.Not sure we will see a lot of improvement with Purdue offense with 10 points over last 2 games.Wisconsin should be able to deliver something comparable to last years 37-0 Win! Lay it
10 Unit Underdog Game of Week - Kansas.St +3.5 over Texas
Wildcats have steadily improved over course of season and we arent sure how much Texas has left in tank after frustrating season and loss to Baylor last week.KSU 8-3 ats last 11 conference games and we feel at this point in season they are playing better football. Take points
8 Units Hawaii + 21 over Boise.St
8 Units Michigan.St -24.5 over Minnesota
6 Units Louisville +6.5 over Syracuse
6 Units Utah.St -18 over N.Mexico State
5 Units Marshall/UAB Under 53.5
5 Units Colo.St/SD.St Under 58
Red Zone Sports
Fresno St. Over
Tim Trushel
20* Duke
Wake Forest
Rice
Arizona
Arizona St
The Duke's Sports
Utah State (-18) for 2 Units
Utah State has revenge on its mind from last year's 20-17 loss at Las Cruces. Utah State has underachieved this year but should open up here vs a happy NMS team off a win against lightweight San Jose State. NMS is 1-6 ATS off a SU dog win against a team below .500. Utah State, however, is 6-1 ATS vs an opponent off a SU dog win. New Mex State struggles to create big plays behind QB Christian who doesn't have big play targets to go to. On the other hand, Utah State has a solid versatile QB in Diondre Borel who should shine vs a NMS defense that allows nearly 40 ppg on the road. Utah State has covered 4 of the last 6 in this series and should resemble the team we saw October 1st at home vs BYU. Utah State the call.
Joyce Sterling
10* Syracuse -6
E. Carolina
Boise/Hawaii Over 65.5
Marc Lawrence
3 Units LSU
Rocketman
4* Boston College
3* USC
Anthony Redd
30 Dime Kansas
30 Dime Oklahoma
30 Dime Kansas State
10 Dime Michigan
10 Dime Vanderbilt
10 Dime Hawaii
Derek Mancini
100 Dime - Texas A&M
Ben Burns
10* BOISE STATE.
I successfully played against the Broncos in their last game. They beat LA Tech 49-20 but didn't cover the huge number. However, even at the time, I noted that I thought the Broncos were an outstanding team, I just felt that the LA Tech offense was a bit better than people realized and that the line was too high. That result worked out just about perfectly. For starters, I was able to cash my ticket on the Bulldogs. Also, as they didn't 'cover,' a few bettors jumped off the Boise bandwagon. That's helped us in terms of line value, by keeping the line slightly lower than it might have been otherwise. Additionally, as the Broncos won by "only" 29 points, they actually lost some ground in the polls. As a result, in an effort to "impress," the Broncos know that they could really use a "bigtime blowout" here. I believe that the Broncos are better than Hawaii on both sides of the ball. In addition to playing at home, they've also got a significant scheduling advantage. The Broncos last played on 10/26. That was here on the blue turf. Prior to that, their previous game had been on 10/16. So, that's two games since 10/16, each with an extra gap in the middle. During the same span, the Warriors have played three games. Making matters worse, the Warriors have been going back and forth from Hawaii every week. On 10/2, they played at Hawaii. On 10/9, they played at Fresno. On 10/16, they were back at Hawaii. On 10/23, they were at Utah State and last week, they were back home at Hawaii. Now, they're again on the "mainland." Give the Warriors credit, as they've done a great job. However, at some point that much traveling tends to take a toll and I expect that to be the case here. Note that the Warriors accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl after last week's. Even though this is a huge game, after missing the bowls last season, that could be cause for a bit of a letdown. That's particularly true given that the players now know that nothing will change, from a bowl perspective, even if they somehow beat Boise. Also, note that the Warriors are an ugly 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +17.5 to +21 range. While the Broncos may have won their last game by only 29 points, they've now win 21 games in a row. That's the longest streak in the country. The Broncos also have a 19-game conference winning streak. That's also the best in the country. Additionally, they've won 29 straight at home. Their last four victories have come by 29, 48, 43 and 59 points. Given their remarkable run of success, the Broncos have plenty of excellent ATS stats in their favor. A couple that are particularly impressive are their 8-2 ATS run against teams with a winning record and an extremely impressive 31-10 ATS mark in the month of November, dating back to the 90s. Looking at last season's meeting and we find that the Broncos traveled to Hawaii and hammered the Warriors by a score of 54-9. The score was 34-0 at halftime. The Warriors have shown that they are a better football team this season. However, the Broncos are also arguably better and this season they're playing on their own turf. They've got a scheduling advantage and plenty of motivation. Yet, they're laying fewer points than they were on the road for last year's game. In a game that I feel could turn ugly, I feel that provides us with plenty of value.
9* MINNESOTA.
While I respect the Spartans, I've I played against them in each of their last two games. I've simply felt that they were overvalued and/or in a difficult spot. I lost my play when they played at Northwestern, a tough defeat indeed. Northwestern was getting a decent handful of points and had a big lead in the fourth quarter, but still managed to cough up the cover. Last week, I again went against the Spartans, this time making it an even bigger (10*) play. This time, facing a tough Iowa team, the bubble finally burst and the Spartans got destroyed. I feel that will be a tough loss to bounce back from. Prior to that, the Spartans had been entertaining serious thoughts of an undefeated season. Now, those dreams have been taken away from them. As a result, there's likely to have been a lot of time spent this week, thinking about "what could have been" rather than fully focusing on the task at hand. After all those "big games" and with a bye on deck, it may be easy to overlook the Gophers. Granted, a home game against Minnesota is a far less daunting task than a road game at Iowa, or even a road game at Northwestern. Still, The Spartans aren't just being asked to win, they're being asked to win by more than three touchdowns. Given the situation, I feel that's asking too much. True, the Gophers have a terrible W/L record and they just got hammered by Ohio State. Prior to that, however, they'd been very competitive. ALL seven of their previous losses came by 18 points or less. That includes games against opponents like USC, Wisconsin and Penn State. In other words, they've played some good teams and have mostly been able to 'hang around.' They were getting 21.5 at Wisconsin (lost by 18) and are now getting even more than that here, which I feel is very generous. The Spartans are a horrible 25-48 ATS the last 73 times that they were coming off a conference loss. During that stretch, they were also a money-burning 2-11 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63 range. The Gophers are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games in this series. They're also 3-0 ATS the last three times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63 range and 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they were road underdogs of greater than three touchdowns. Overall, including the cover at Wisconsin, they're also 9-4 ATS their last 13 road games. Catching the Spartans off last week's beatdown, I expect them to improve on those stats here.
9* DUKE.
Both these teams are coming off fairly major upset victories. I wasn't all that shocked that Duke upset Navy, (34-31) as the Blue Devils were one of my plays. (I grabbed the +13 points though.) The Cavaliers' victory was arguably even more surprising, at least to me. (I didn't play their game.) Listed as +14.5 point underdogs, the Cavs beat Miami 24-19. That was at home though. Now the Cavs take to the road where they have yet to win a game. Duke won outright at Virginia last season. This year's team is stronger and returned numerous starters. Virginia didn't return as many starters and is now playing on the road. Yet, the Cavs are still small favorites. I feel that's based more on perception than on reality. The general public knows that Duke is a "basketball school" and has seen the Blue Devils football team struggle over the years. They have a natural tendency to think of Virginia as the better team. That opinion is strengthened by the fact that Virginia has twice as many wins as Duke so far this season. While the win over Miami was impressive, the Cavs other two victories came vs. the likes of Richhmond, VMI and Eastern Michigan. That's a pair of 1-AA teams and a team which is 1-8 this season after going winless last year. Not that Duke's other win, (Elon) prior to beating Navy, was anything special either - however, I'm only trying to point out that Virginia having four victories is a little misleading. It should also be noted that the Cavs were outgained by a 448-361 margin in last week's win. Duke, on the other hand, had a 446-375 edge. The Cavs are 0-8 SU (3-5 ATS) in the month of November the past two seasons. They're also 0-2 SU/ATS the past few seasons, when playing a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. During the same stretch, the Blue Devils were 2-1 SU/ATS when playing a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. Looking back further and we find Duke at 4-1-1 ATS the last six times it was listed as a home underdog of three points or less. The Blue Devils beat Virginia two years in a row and I look for them to do so again here.
9* CLEMSON
The Wolfpack come in with the better record and the higher ranking. However, I believe that Clemson is favored for good reason. Having won with them in last week's upset, I certainly respect the Wolfpack. That said, I expect this to be a much tougher match up for them. Last week, they were playing at home against a Florida State team which was starting to believe it was better than it really was. This week, the Wolfpack are on the road and facing a Clemson team which is angry after getting upset last week and which is looking to take out the frustration of a disappointing season on someone. True, Clemson is only 4-4. However, those four losses were all close, including an OT loss at Auburn. Also, lets not forget that last week was the Tigers first home loss of the season and that they're still 4-1 here at home. While the Tigers may have to go without tailback Andre Ellington, I feel that QB Kyle Parker and the rest of the Clemson offense will be able to pick up the slack vs. a mediocre NC State defense. While he hasn't been at his best this season, note that Parker should be highly motivated for a big game as both he and NC State QB have signed baseball contracts with the Rockies and therefore have a bit of a rivalry going. While NC State has been better offensively, Clemson has been far superior defensively. The Wolfpack are allowing 23.8 points per game. The Tigers are allowing only 18.1. coach O'Brien and his players were calling last week's game the biggest in his tenure at NC State. Off that big win and now with a national ranking it should be easy for this overachieving team to get caught patting itself on the back a little. Coach O'Brien was quoted as saying: "We have to get our heads out of the clouds and our feet on the ground..." However, that's often easier said than done. Speaking of O'Brien, he knows his team will have its hands full. The Tigers have won each of their three meetings against O'Brien-coached N.C. State teams by an average of 20 points. O'Brien was quoted as saying: "They still have pretty good backs down there. They've got a lot of talent. They're a big, powerful football team, and a lot of the guys we played last year are still playing." NC State defensive end David Akinniyi said this of the Tigers: "Clemson's more of the type of offensive line that will just try to maul you, run the ball down your throat. I think it's probably going to be one of the most physical games we've been in so far." In addition to having beaten NC State six straight times, the Tigers are 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they were off a conference loss and 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. Clemson tight end Dwayne Allen said this of his team: "We're a 4-4 team with 8-0 talent." Expect Allen's Tigers to play up to their talent level this afternoon as they take out some frustration and continue their dominance in this series.
Ben Burns
*8 Carolina / Florida Under
These teams played last night, at Florida. That was a wild back and forth game, which saw the teams combine for 11 goals. The score was 3-3 after the first period and the Panthers finished with a 7-4 victory. The style/tempo of a "home and home" series often changed dramatically from one night to the next and I expect a much lower-scoring affair this evening. The Panthers have seen the UNDER go 5-1 on the road this season. Those games have averaged only 4.5 goals. Five of those six games had O/U lines of 5.5, while the other had a line of five. Including those results, the UNDER is now an extremely profitable 40-23 (63.5%) the past few seasons, when the Panthers have played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Even with last night's 'shootout,' the UNDER is still 8-4 the last 12 meetings in the series. Looking at the last five games here at Raleigh and we find the UNDER at 4-1. I expect those stats to improve here.
7* Carolina
These teams played last night, at Florida. That was a wild back and forth game, which saw the teams combine for 11 goals. The score was 3-3 after the first period and the Panthers finished with a 7-4 victory. With tonight's game being played at Raleigh, I expect the Hurricanes to return the favor. The Canes are 36-28 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that stretch, the Panthers were a money-burning 24-39 when playing on the road with a total of 5.5 Looking at last season's series and we find that the home team won all six meetings. The three games here at Raleigh saw the Canes outscore the Panthers by a combined 14-5 margin. Carolina appears likely to go with Ward in net again. He's 6-2-0 with a 2.97 GAA in 10 home starts against Florida. Given last night's result and tonight's venue, I look for the Canes to be "hungrier" and for them to continue their recent home ice dominance in the series.
BIG AL
Sun Belt GOY - Troy State
Last week, NorthTexas went into Western Kentucky, and shocked the Hilltoppers 33-6, as 6-point underdogs. But off that huge win, we'll fade the Mean Green on Saturday, as they fall into negative 34-105 and 47-123 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset road wins as 6-point (or greater) underdogs. Moreover, Troy St was upset last week at Louisiana Monroe, 28-14, as 17-point favorites, but teams off an upset loss (as 6-point or greater favorites) are a terrific 11-1 ATS as favorites priced between -10.5 and -30 points vs. conference foes off an upset conference win as a 6-point (or greater) underdogs. The win by North Texas last week really did come "out of the blue" as North Texas had lost its previous 3 games (both SU and ATS), and had given up an average of 29 ppg. North Texas is a poor 5-16 ATS at home (0-6 last 6), 4-18 ATS off an ATS win (0-10 vs. .401 foes), and 2-11 ATS after allowing 16 points or less in its previous game (0-8 vs. foes off a double-digit loss). Take Troy State.
ATS Lock Club
8 Units on TCU
7 Units on Texas -3.5
7 Units on Miami, FL -7.5
2 Unit Round Robin Parlay on all 3
6 Units on Oregon St. -4.5
5 Units on Hawaii +22
5 Units on Indiana +17.5
ASA
5* Oklahoma St
4* Louisiana Tech
3* Florida
3* Arizona St
Northcoast
TOY - South Carolina Over
3'* Utah St Over
3* Navy Over
3* LSU Under
Fla International
UL Lafayette
Nebraska
Navy