BLACK WIDOW
6* 2009 ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State +8.5
Florida State continues to grind it out this season despite their slow start. They have posted back-to-back big wins by 3 points over both UNC and NC State. Now they look to knock off Clemson Saturday, a team that should not be this heavily favored. FSU has played their best football away from home, which is the sign of a mentally tough team. The Seminoles are 2-1 in road games this year, beating BYU and UNC and scoring a whopping 35.0 points/game in the process. FSU averages 444 yards/game of total offense this season, and when you compare that to the 347 yards/game Clemson is putting up, you can see why FSU is the best play in the ACC for all of 2009. FSU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points since 1992. The Seminoles are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take Florida State and the points.
5* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Idaho +8
This Idaho team is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about. The Vandals are 7-2 this season after their 35-34 win over Idaho last week. Their only losses have come on the road at Washington and at Nevada, two solid teams. Fresno State has won 4 straight, but they should be on upset alert Saturday against a Vandals' team that has yet to lose at home. Idaho is 4-0 at home this year, scoring 33.7 points/game. The Vandals are putting up 433 yards/game of total offense this season, so they have one of the better offenses in the country. Fresno State is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 2 seasons. They were lucky to escape with a 31-27 home win over Utah State last week. The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Vandals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Vandals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Idaho and the points.
4* on UConn +16.5
UConn is 4-4 this season, but honestly they are not far from being 8-0. They have losses by 2, 3, 4 and 4 points this year. So UConn's 4 losses have come by a combined 13 points. This team is not two touchdowns worse than Cincinnati, and it wouldn't surprise us one bit to see them pull off the upset Saturday. The Huskies beat the Bearcats 40-16 last year, and Cincinnati won the Big East last season. UConn is putting up 402 yards/game of total offense, and this unit is much better than they get credit for. UConn is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. The Huskies are 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. The Huskies are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Take UConn and the points.
4* on Oregon -6.5
After thumping USC 47-20 last week, this could be a letdown spot for Oregon. But it won't be, because the Ducks have National Championship aspirations still, and they want to win the Pac-10 to dethrone the Trojans. Oregon will make easy work of Stanford on Saturday, just like they have been doing now for 7 straight games since losing to Boise State in the season-opener. Oregon is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS since that loss to the Broncos. They have won 5 straight by 14 or more points, which is impressive considering Cal, UCLA, Washington and USC have been on the schedule during that time. Oregon is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. Stanford, including a 55-31 blowout in their last visit. Oregon is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. The Ducks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. The Ducks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Take Oregon and lay the points.
4* on Oklahoma State -7
This is an absolute mismatch Saturday and the Cowboys should be a much heavier favorite against Iowa State. Oky State is 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 16.0 points/game. ISU is back to reality after losing 10-35 at Texas A&M last week, which is the same Aggies' team that Oklahoma State beat 36-31 on the road earlier this season. Oky State beat ISU 59-17 last year and we wouldn't be surprised to see a similar final score in this 2009 edition. The Cowboys are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Take Oklahoma State and lay the points.
4* on Missouri -14
This game has three-touchdown blowout written all over it. Baylor is 0-4 in their last 4 games, losing by double-digits each time. Missouri has a great chance to win the Big 12 North still, and after losing three straight to the likes of Nebraska, Texas and Oklahoma State, the Tigers are back on track after trouncing Colorado on the road 36-17 last week. Missouri is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Baylor, winning 5 of those 7 games by 15 points or more. Baylor is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) off 2 straight losses to conference rivals,scoring less than 14 points since 1992. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Missouri and lay the points.
4* on Texas A&M -3
The Aggies are a great play Saturday as just a field goal favorite over lowly Colorado. The Buffaloes have nothing left to play for sitting at 2-6, while Texas A&M could clinch a bowl berth this weekend which is something they want to get out of the way after going 4-8 last season and missing a bowl bid. The Aggies are playing their best football of the season right now, winning back-to-back games with a 52-30 win at Texas Tech and a 35-10 home thumping of Iowa State. The Buffaloes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. The Buffaloes are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Colorado has the worst offense in the Big 12, scoring just 21.7 points/game and averaging 286 total yards/game. Compare that to Texas A&M who scores 35.7 points/game and averages 490 total yards/game and you can see why this thing should result in an Aggies' blowout. Take Texas A&M and lay the points.
Wunderdog
Iowa
Under Arkansas
Tx A&m
Navy
Air Force
Clemson
Sportsbetsnow
1 unit Colorado +3
1 unit Baylor +14
2 units Stanford +7
2 units Tulsa +1
2 units Nebraska +4.5
1 unit Arizona St. +10
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
11/7/09- Saturday Full NCAA
10* BIG TEN G.O.Y.- ILLINOIS +7
10* SUNBELT G.O.Y.- LA.LAFAYETTE +14
7* DESTROYER- BYU -13
5*- UTAH ST -1
5*- KANSAS -3
5*- TULSA +1
4*- MICHIGAN -6
4*- OKLAHOMA ST -7
John Fina
GOY Penn State Under
BRANDON LANG
30 DIME - KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
10 DIME - PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
10 DIME - STANFORD CARDINAL
30 DIME - KANSAS STATE WILDCATS - The wrong team is favored here.
The bottom line is this game is about 2 teams heading in opposite directions. Simple as that.
Not only has Kansas lost 3 in a row SU, but they have now dropped 5 in a row ATS. This team can't get out of their own way right now and on the road today will not make it any better.
Kansas State comes in winners of 3 of their last 5 SU, and 4-1 ATS.
The crazy thing about Kansas State is they control their own destiny to get in the Big 12 championship game. A win today, and a win at Nebraska to end the year and they will have a date with Texas.
What makes this game even more appealing to me is the effort Kansas State put forth on the road at Oklahoma last week.
They were down only 35-20 with 7 minutes to go in the 4th before they just ran out of gas losing 42-30. The same Oklahoma team that a week earlier went into Kansas and just dominated this overrated and over hyped Jayhawks team 35-13.
I am all over the home dog to take another step towards the Big 12 championship game today with a big home win.
30 dime Kansas State
10 DIME - PURDUE BOILERMAKERS - Don't feel Michigan is trustworthy to be laying almost a full touchdown in this spot here.
I am talking about a Michigan team that comes off back to back losses to Penn State at home 35-10, and at Illinois last week as a 7-point favorite 38-13.
Talk about embarrassing. Lose by 25 on the road as a 7 point favorite. Exactly.
How soon we forget about Purdue beating Ohio State at home in a game they put up over 300 yards total offense on the Buckeyes defense and overcoming 3 turnovers as well.
Yes Purdue does come off a 37-0 loss at Wisconsin, but all that loss did was give me extra value here and it's value I will gladly take.
Another thing, I really like here is the fact Michigan runs the spread offense, a little like Ohio State does and in the full scheme of things, I really like how Purdue matches up here.
Oh, and one more thing. The talk of college football right now is the Oregon Ducks and just how great they are right now off their win over USC.
This Purdue team went into Oregon and lost 38-36 in a game they should have won outright as a 13 point dog. They put up 170 yards on the ground, 271 through the air but just came up a little short.
I look for the same kind of effort by Purdue today and an easy cover right along with it.
10 dime Purdue
10 DIME - STANFORD CARDINAL - I really feel this game will be closer than everyone thinks.
Stanford has not only covered 10 straight home games, but 4 of those have been outright.
With a week off to prepare and catching Oregon off the huge win last week at home to USC, you couldn't have given Stanford a better spot to deliver a shocker than right here.
In their 4 home games this year Stanford has won 3 of those by 20 or more, and the other was an 8 point win over UCLA.
I am taking nothing away from Oregon and what they have done, but fact of the matter is they have only played 2 road games in the PAC-10 and in those games they have been the beneficiary of 3 turnovers at UCLA and 3 at Washington.
Trust me when I tell you Stanford is an upgrade from those 2 teams, and I have all the confidence in the world this is a field goal game all the way and it wouldn't suprise me if Stanford won the game outright.
10 Dime Stanford
FREE SELECTION - OKLAHOMA SOONERS
Strike Point Sports
6-Unit Game of the Month. Take Michigan -6 over Purdue
No reason not to feel some reluctance after the way Michigan looked against Illinois last week. But the Wolverines are back at home (5-1) against a Purdue team who has allowed over 36 points per game on the road (0-3). Michigan can pound the ball against a Boilermaker defense that has allowed over 650 rushing yards in their three bad road outings. Three factors here that sell me. Michigan owns Purdue in the Big House. Purdue has been absolutely awful on the road this year. And this game is a must-win for Rich Rodriguez after a shaky month. We're sold. Go Blue!
5-Unit Play. Take Texas A&M -3 over Colorado
Normally A&M hasn't faired too well in Boulder, but right now the Buffs are a hot mess. They can't get any production from the the quarterback position, and their rushing game hasn't been good enough to carry the load. And speaking of rushing attacks, the Aggies can rack up the ground yardage and have outgained their opponents running the ball by nearly 350 yards over the last two games. Both victories came from those games after that bad loss to Kansas State, and Texas A&M continues its bounce back ways and gets to six wins on the year.
4-Unit Play. Take Duke +10 over North Carolina
Way too high of a number, not only because Duke is playing so well also, but because Carolina still hasn't proven they can score consistently enough to be favored by double figures. The underdog has covered three of the last four meetings, with the winner in each of the last four only coming away with a single digit victory. This game will be close throughout and I think the Blue Devils have a better chance to win outright than does UNC to cover this line. We play the Dukies.
4-Unit Play. Take Houston 'Pk' over Tulsa
You can't deny the revenge factor for the Golden Hurricane here, but more importantly we are focusing on this year's team and that means that Houston needs a win. Must-win? Not exactly, but the Cougars already have a conference loss, so in order to stay on pace to play for the C-USA Championship they need to continue to take care of business and prove that lone setback to UTEP was a simple mistake. 4-4 on the year for Tulsa tells me this team isn't the C-USA power it was a couple of seasons ago. They don't even have a winning record at home, and it stays that way as Houston wins on the road.
4-Unit Play. Take Florida State +8.5 over Clemson
Two straight wins for the Seminoles doesn't fix the problems they have had, but it is a good step in the direction. We like them and the points against Clemson. The Tigers are one of the worst teams in the ACC with regards to turnovers, and not only that but they continue to get inconsistent play from the quarterback position. C.J. Spiller scares me, but it seems he does most of his damage on special teams. Clemson can't cover this spread just with its offense. Hopefully Florida State realizes that, steps up and contains the Tigers special teams. FSU can run the ball well and they do so enough to earn a cover and keep the score close enough in the fourth to compete for an outright victory.
David Malinsky
6* Oregon St.
5* South Carolina
4* Maryland
4* Cincy -17
4* Syracuse/ Pitt Under 49
4* Duke 10
Kelso
200 units Fresno State -7.5
15 units UL Monroe -2.5
5 units UTEP -6.5
4 units Kansas State +2.5
3 units Pitt -21
BRYAN LEONARD
SATURDAY BIG 12 SUPER PLAY
Texas A&M at Colorado
The A&M offense is hitting on all cylinders right now as the veteran offensive line has settled in and is dominating the line of scrimmage. Coach Sherman simplified the run play calling a few games back and it's really helped this team become a more balanced offense. It also helps that WR Jeff Fuller has returned from missing four games with a broken leg. He's the favorite target in the passing game and makes this offense even more dynamic. The Aggies have scored 31 points or more in all but two games this season including 35 and 52 points the past two weeks.
Colorado has dropped four of their last five games and have been outgained by yards per play in all but one contest all season. The offense has produced 3.6 yards per play or worse in three of their last four games. Colorado has posted a positive turnover advantage just once all season and they continue to leave their defense in bad field position. The last two weeks opponents were able to start their drives at their own 42 yard line and at the 50 yard line. Colorado on the other hand started on their own 27 and 18 yard lines. This is a team that's struggling in all facets of the game right now and they shouldn't be priced in a game where they will need to win to cover the spread.
PLAY TEXAS A&M
NCAA Rivalry Game of the Year
Kent State at Akron
The Golden Flashes are on quite a roll and with a win this week over arch rival Akron Kent State will become bowl eligible. How big of a deal is that? Kent State hasn't been to a bowl game since 1972. A win will also set up a showdown with Temple for the divisional lead and what could be a shot at the MAC Championship. Kent State has won three straight games since blowing a big lead hosting Bowling Green. They have dominated the past three opponents especially defensively where they allowed just 14, 11 and 6 points. Kent is looking to avenge a double overtime home loss last year to the Zips. Akron has dropped six straight games and they have yet to beat an FBS entrant this season. After starting QB Chris Jacquemain was dismissed from the team the offense disappeared. The last four games Akron has produced point totals of 10, 14, 17 and 7 points. The last two games they were a combined 1 for 21 on third down conversions. The limited offense is putting way too much pressure on the defense and we expect that stop unit to collapse this week. In seven FBS games this season the defense has been on the field at least 32 minutes in every contest. You simply cannot ask those players to be on the field that length of time without feeling the affects. Now in the fifth straight game off their bye we can look for the defense in regress. Akron hasn't had any of the new stadium home field advantage this season with FBS losses by 17 and 12 points here. Look for Kent to extend that misery.
PLAY KENT STATE
BIG 12 BLOWOUT
Kansas at Kansas State
We rode the Jayhawks early on this season with success but when they had to step up in class Kansas failed to do so. They have dropped three straight games and five straight against the pointspread. The offense has produced just 3.7 and 4.2 yards per play the past two weeks and starting QB Todd Reesing is complaining about a groin injury. Defensively the Jayhawks have been lit up in conference play allowing 42, 35, 34 and 36 points. Even the pedestrian offenses of Colorado and Iowa State had their way with this defense.
As opposed to the Jayhawks we were dead set against this Wildcat team early on and for good reason. The ancient Bill Snyder returned this season and the results were pretty ugly in the early going. The Wildcats struggled to get by FCS entrant Massachusetts before losing to Louisiana and UCLA. But since that time it's all worked out well for the 70 year old and his players. Kansas State has won 4 of 6 games and covered 4 of their last 5.
Snyder was 13-4 SU&ATS against Kansas in his earlier stint in Manhattan and he knows how important this game is for recruiting purposes. The Wildcats have cashed 6 of the last 7 meetings here and are looking to avenge a 31 point loss last year in Lawrence. These two clubs are going in different directions right now and the betting marketplace has been slow to react. Grab the points now as Kansas State reclaims the Sunflower Showdown.
PLAY KANSAS STATE
Scott Spreitzer
Value Shocker GOY
Stanford
North Coast
Comp Under Play Of Week...Illinois
Big Dog....Duke
#2 Econ....BYU
Big 12 Pow.....Oklahoma State
Vegasbuster
8* IRON PLAY
Texas A&M -3
Royal Sports
9* Louisville Cardinals
Rob Homyak
Oregon vs. Stanford
Ducks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Ducks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Ducks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Head to Head
Ducks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Stanford.
Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
3 Units on Oregon Ducks