Karl Garrett
40 DIMER - HOUSTON COUGARS
10 DIMERS - DUKE & WAKE FOREST
Great Lake Sports
4* Penn State
4* USC
3* Kent St.
3* Oregon
3* Nebraska
Pure Lock
Oregon
Totals 4 U
2009 Big 12 Conference Total of the Year!!!!!
Baylor/Missouri over 46 1/2
Early College Best Bets
Navy/Notre Dame over 55 1/2
Purdue/Michigan under 53 1/2
2009 Top 10 Showdown Total of the Year!!!!!
Louisiana State/Alabama under 40
Afternoon College Best Bets
Duke/North Carolina under 46
Ohio State/Penn State under 38 1/2
November's PAC 10 Total of the Month!!!!!
Southern California/Arizona State under 45 1/2
Late College Best Bets
Okalahoma/Nebraska over 42 1/2
Houston/Tulsa over 69 1/2
LARRY NESS
'Early 8' CFB
REASON FOR PICK: Rich Rodriquez hardly left West Va "with class" and his first year in Ann Arbor was pretty 'ugly.' Michigan entered 2008 with 40 consecutive winning seasons and 33 straight bowl appearances, both of which were the NCAA's longest active streaks. However, the 'Wolves lost 25-23 to Utah in their first game (by year's end that would be viewed as a "pretty good loss") and after a 2-2 start would finish 3-9 by losing SEVEN of their final eight games. Michigan would open the 2009 season 4-0 (all games at "The Big House") and even after seven games stood at 5-2, averaging 37.3 PPG. However, Penn St shut down the Michigan offense in a 35-10 win at Ann Arbor on 10/24 and last week, the Wolverines totally collapsed against an Illinois team which entered the game 1-6, having beaten only Illinois St. Danny Hope of Purdue is in his first year as a head coach and is following Joe Tiller at Purdue. Tiller went 126-92-1 in his tenure at Purdue (school had suffered through 10 losing season in the previous 11 years prior to his arrival), leading the Boilermakers to 10 bowl games. Hope had some big shoes to fill and despite an upset of Ohio State, his first year has not been a good one. Purdue comes into this game 2-6, after losing 37-0 at Wisconsin last Saturday. It marked Purdue's worst shutout loss since a 48-0 defeat at Notre Dame in 1992 and the worst Big Ten shutout since 1991, when the Boilermakers lost 42-0 at Michigan. Purdue gained 141 yards on offense for the game (eight FDs), nine fewer than Wisconsin rolled up in a 150-yard first quarter. QB Joey Elliott averaged 265 YPG through the air with 14 TD passes through his first seven games of 2009 but in his last two has thrown 47 passes without a TD, while throwing for a total of just 225 yards. That includes him going 5-of-23 for 59 yards (one INT) against Wisconsin. Michigan led 13-7 at the half on the road last Saturday vs Illinois. On the second half's third play, Michigan receiver Roy Roundtree looked as if he had scored on a 75-yard plus TD but after video review, Roundtree was ruled down at the one. The Illini stopped Michigan on four straight runs and then the much-maligned Juice Williams (with good reason) answered with a 99-yard TD drive, as Illinois went up 14-13. Before the goal-line turnaround, Michigan had given up just 94 yards of offense. However, the Illini would finish with 500 total yards in a 38-13 win with more than half its second-half yardage coming on three TD drives that surrounded a pair of three-and-outs led by Michigan's freshman QB Tate Forcier. Forcier looked like a 'savior' in Michigan's 4-0 start but he hasn't thrown a TD pass in his last four games and the Wolves have totaled just 23 points in their last two. Purdue's rush D allowed Wisconsin 266 yards last week and Michigan allowed the Illini to run for the ridiculous total of 377 yards. However, Purdue's running game is not really capable of taking advantage of the Wolves' struggles in stopping the run, as Purdue enters averaging just 136.8 YPG on the ground. RB Bolden got off to a great start but has averaged 57.1 YPG over his last seven games (3.5 YPC). Meanwhile, Michigan is averaging 207.6 YPG (4.8 YPC) on the ground with Brown gaining 465 yards (6.0 YPC / 4 TDs) and Minor 322 yards (4.6 YPC / 5 TDs) plus QBs Robinson (287 YR / 5 TDs) and Forcier (214 YR) also chipping in. Michigan has lost four straight Big Ten games and four of its last five overall, after that 4-0 start. Michigan needs another win to become bowl-eligible and with a visit to Wisconsin up next and its season-finale with Ohio State in Ann Arbor following the Badgers, this could easily be seen as a "MUST-WIN" game for the Wolverines. Purdue should play the perfect foil, as they are 0-3 on the road in 2009, allowing 36.7 PPG. They last win in Ann Arbor 22-21 back in 1966, when Bob Griese was its starting QB. The Boilermakers have lost 17 straight at Michigan since that win and this current group of Wolverines (plus coach Rodriguez) will surely remember last year's November 1 game in West Lafayette in which Purdue won 48-42 (rolled up 522 yards), scoring the game-winner with 26 seconds remaining. With that loss, Michigan was guaranteed its first losing season since 1967, snapping a 40-year streak (4th-longest of all-time), as well as ending the nation's longest active bowl streak at 33 in-a-row. Rodriguez and his current team still have a long way to go but "Step 1" is a convincing win here vs a very beatable opponent. Expect just that! 'Early 8' CFB Play on Michigan (8*).
Rivalry Rout
REASON FOR PICK: Bill Snyder has a chance to make his return to Manhattan something special if he get his Wildcats to win Saturday against in-state rival Kansas. Snyder became a legend when he took over what was CFB's worst Division I-A program back in 1989. The Wildcats were off back-to-back seasons of 0-21-1 in '87 and '88 and while Snyder's first team went 1-10, he turned the Wildcats into one of the nation's most successful programs by 1993. KSU went to 11 straight bowl games (from 1993-2003), as Snyder's Wildcats beat their in-state rivals (Kansas) all 11 years (covering 10 times!). Snyder's KSU teams fell to 4-7 in 2004 and 5-6 in 2005 and he felt it was time to go (no one was complaining in Manhattan). However, Ron Prince's three-year tenure at KSU resulted in seasons of 7-6 (lost 37-10 to Rutgers in the Texas Bowl), 5-7 and 5-7. Kansas won and covered all three meetings with KSU during "the Prince era" and Snyder was welcomed back. The Jayhawks have been to and won bowl games in each of the last two years (20-6 overall mark), led by QB Todd Reesing (65-20 ratio, throwing for over 7,200 yards). Kansas opened this year 5-0 but have dropped three straight, allowing 37.0 PPG. All three losses were conference games and Kansas now finds itself 1-3 in the Big 12 North while 5-4 KSU is 3-2 in Big 12 play plus more importantly, controls its own destiny. Reesing is having another strong season (16-7 ratio while averaging just under 300 YPG through the air) but the KSU running games has disappeared in the team's three-game slide (less than 50 YPG) and is averaging just 136.3 YPG on the season (3.9). KSU's running game is led by Thomas (902 YR / 5.0 YP{C / 10 TDs) and Valentine (362 YR / 7.2 YPC / 6 TDs), averaging 182.3 YPG (4.3 YPC / 21 TDs). Coffman and Gregory have both started at QB (Gregory is the starter now) and while neither have great numbers, the Kansas pass 'D' ranks 100th in yards allowed (247.4), allowing 61.1 percent completions while intercepting just seven of 303 pass attempts. KSU fell behind Oklahoma 28-6 last Saturday but fought back to close within five points, before losing 42-30. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks were 5-0 and ranked 17th heading into their October 17 game at Boulder. The Jayhawks would lose that game 34-30, lose 35-13 at home to Oklahoma (were not nearly as competitive vs the Sooners as the Wildcats were, despite playing at home) and fell apart in the 4th quarter last Saturday at Lubbock, allowing 28 points in a 42-21 loss. The Jayhawks look like "dead men walking," and I can't for the life of me figure out why they are favored here in Manhattan. Snyder was an assistant coach under Hayden Fry, who always preached the importance of beating ones in-state rival for recruiting reasons. Snyder learned that lesson well, going 13-4 SU and ATS in this rivalry his "first time around." Look for him to continue his mastery over the Jayhawks in the first season of his "second term!" KSU is 4-0 SU at home in 2009 and ups that record to 5-0 here. Rivalry Rout on Kansas St (9*).
CFB Underdog Game of the Year
REASON FOR PICK: This shouldn't come as a surprise to regular followers, as I've used the Cardinal as my Pac 10* Crusher when they beat Washington 34-14 (9/26) and as a LEGEND play when they beat Arizona St 33-14 (10/24). This Saturday Stanford hosts Oregon, 2009's version of the "Comeback Kids." I refer to the term "comeback" not in that the Ducks have won games late in dramatic fashion but rather that Oregon has come back from the depths of its September 3 loss at Boise State (opening night of the '09 season), a game which needs no rehashing. First-year Oregon head coach Chip Kelly made a decisive call with the LeGarrette Blount situation and his team has responded. It's my belief it would be a HUGE mistake to bring Blount back now, as has been rumored, as well as a distraction from what the team has accomplished. With no word regarding that at this moment, I'll leave it alone. Oregon has won seven straight games (covered the last six) and has risen all the way to 7th in the AP poll and No. 8 in the BCS standings (highest-ranked one-loss team). Oregon is off one of the school's biggest wins in history last Saturday night, as the Ducks CRUSHED Pete Carroll's USC Trojans, 47-20. Carroll went 6-6 in his first season at USC (2001) but since the beginning of te 2002 season had lost just 10 times, NEVER by more than seven points. USC's 27-point loss was STUNNING, as Oregon gained 613 total yards (second to only Notre Dame's 623 yards gained against USC back in 1946) and the 391 yards rushing that Oregon gained (USC entered having allowed less than 80 YPG on the ground), was the most the Trojans had allowed since 1977. Freshman RB James has topped 100 yards in FIVE of Oregon's last six games (140 YPG in that span) and leads a team which is averaging 233.3 YPG on the ground with 918 YR in 2009 (7.0 YPC / 7 TDs). Remember, Oregon ran for only 31 yards (17 carries) vs Boise St, gaining 152 total yards and six FDs. QB Masoli has "risen from the dead" as well, to complete 60.6% while adding 436 YR (6.1 YPC / 8 TDs). Current form favors the Ducks plus recent history in this series says Oregon as well, with Oregon winning seven straight over Stanford (average margin of victory is 23 PPG). So how come I'm taking Stanford? No. 1, what a "let down" spot this is for the Ducks, who rarely find themselves in such "rarified air." The Ducks are now odds-on favorites for their first Rose Bowl since the 1994 season (only previous Rose Bowls were after the 1957, 1919 and 1917 seasons!). Some say the Stanford defense can't handle Oregon's speed and while that's a worry, let me note that this will be just Oregon's second game all season on grass. In its first one (10/10 at the Rose Bowl vs UCLA), the Ducks trailed UCLA 3-0 at the half but returned the opening KO of the second half 100 yards for a TD. On UCLA's first play after that TD, QB Prince was intercepted with Oregon returning it for a TD. Just a handful plays later, Prince fumbled at midfield and the Ducks scored eight plays later. The damage was 21 points in less than five minutes in a 24-10 Oregon win. Masoli missed that game with an injury but I believe the Ducks will struggle here at "The Farm." Speaking of "The Farm," Stanford is 4-0 SU and ATS at home this year and has covered its last 10 home games (9-1 SU)! Redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck has shown great poise (58.2% / 228.1 YPG / 9-3 ratio) and senior RB Gerhart (994 YR / 5.1 YPCV / 13 TDs) leads a running game which averages 205.6 YPG (5.2 YPC). The 5-3 Cardinal face a daunting final four games to their 2009 season, hosting Oregon (No. 8 in the BCS), visiting USC (currently No. 12 in the BCS) and then returning for home games with Cal (No. 20 in the BCS) plus Notre Dame (No. 22 in the BCS). Harbaugh led a Stanford team which finished just 4-8 to a shocking 24-23 win at then-No. 2 USC (as 41-point dogs) back in 2007, an upset that stands as his biggest win in his two-plus years at Stanford. However, a win over Oregon on Saturday, would rank as a "close second" and as with most things in life, the most recent events are typically the 'sweetest!' Stanford had a bye last week to prepare and catches Oregon off its "history-making" win over USC. That set-up can't get much better for the Cardinal. I really believe the Stanford offense can score against the Oregon 'D' and that Oregon 'O' just may get slowed down enough on Stanford Stadium's grass field. An outright win comes as no surprise to me. CFB Underdog Game of the Year 10* Stanford.
PERFECT STORM
REASON FOR PICK: I'm a huge fan of Houston's Case Keenum (he's second on my latest Heisman Watch) and I had the Cougars last Saturday when they eked out an ATS win over Southern Miss. The Cougars led Southern Miss 43-29 with under six minutes to go last Saturday but Southern Miss rallied for two TDs, the second coming with just 57 seconds remaining. Houston had to score to avoid overtime and didn’t even need all 57 seconds. Keenum went 5-for-5 in the final drive for 77 yards with his final completion being a 28-yard TD to Patrick Edwards with 21 seconds remaining. He finished the game 44-of-54 for a career-high 559 yards with five TDs and one INT (his other TD passes went for 33, 55, 14 and 17 yards). Here's how I closed last week's write-up on Houston over Southern Miss.
"A visit to Tulsa is up next and something tells me the Golden Hurricane just may remember that the Cougars beat them LY 70-30. The Cougars HAVE to win here and why shouldn't they? Houston is 20-2 SU at home since the beginning of the 2006 season with 18 of those 20 wins coming by at least a TD."
The Cougars almost let Southern Miss "off the hook" last Saturday and I'm anxious and ready to go against them here. I had UTEP (+14) when it beat Houston 58-41 back in El Paso on Oct 3 and while Tulsa comes into this game off three straight losses, please don't tell me the Golden Hurricane can't come up with the same kind of effort as the Miners did! I realize this year's Tulsa team doesn't rank with the 10-4 and 11-3 teams of the last two seasons. Tulsa is averaging less than 400 YPG and 27.8 PPG, while those teams averaged 570 and 544 YPG plus 47.2 and 41.1 PPG, respectively. GJ Kinnie suffered a concussion in last week's "bad loss" at home to SMU (27-13) but prior to that performance (2-of-10 for 10 yards with two INTs), he had a 12-2 ratio through his first six games and in a home game vs Boise St, completed 14-of-27 for 1 154 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (Tulsa lost 28-21). Kinnie is ready to play here. Houston is all bout Keenum, who leads the nation in total offense with 420.8 YPG, a figure 92 YPG better than the No. 2 spot (A&M's Jerrod Johnson). Keenum saw his run of 18 consecutive 300-yard passing games in the regular season end vs SMU but last week’s game vs Southern Miss means he’s topped 300 yards in 20 of his last 22 games (he’s got nine career 400-yard games) and he’s thrown for at least 360 yards in seven of his eight games in 2009. His five-TD game extended his school record to 24 straight games with a TD pass (1989 Heisman-winner Andre Ware owned the previous record with 18) and now has 83 career TD passes at Houston. Houston is 7-1 and off to its best start since 1990 (that team finished 10-1) and is ranked 13th in the AP and 15th in the BCS standings. Houston leads the nation in total offense (563.3 YPG) and is barely second to Texas in scoring (41.6 PPG-to 41.8). One could point out that SMU freshman QB Kyle Padron threw for 354 yards in his first career start last week vs Tulsa but let me also note that Tulsa had held three of its previous four opponents to under 200 yards passing. I mentioned at the top that the Cougars crushed the Golden Hurricane 70-30 last year in Houston (Keenum had 402 yards passing and six TD passes) but in Houston's last visit to Tulsa (in 2007), the Cougars lost 56-7, as Keenum was held to just 81 yards passing with zero TDs and one INT. Forget Tulsa's three-game losing streak. This is a proud program (bowl wins of 63-7 and 45-13 the last two season with 21 overall wins) which has posted home marks of 5-1 in each of the three previous seasons before this year's 'hiccup.' I'm 6-2 with my PERFECT STORM plays in CFB '09, with TWO of those wins coming in Houston games (against the Cougars vs UTEP and on them vs Southern Miss). I add a third win involving Houston on Saturday night, going against the Cougars, as their chance of claiming the school's first top-10 ranking since September of 1991 (remember David Klingler?) takes a "major hit!" PERFECT STORM on Tulsa (9*).
Kiki Sports
GOY Penn St
Steve Budin
25 DIME HOUSTON
ATS LOCK CLUB
10 Units K.ST +2.5
10 Units Ore.St+7.5
2 Unit parlay
7 Units Northwestern +15.5
6 Units Oklahoma -4
5 Units Penn St -5
5 Units UConn +17
COWTOWN SPORTS
3* Clemson Tigers
Maryland Terrapins
Texas Sports Wire
Top - Florida
Mike Rose
Top - Florida
DOLPHIN
5* Clemson
4* Kansas State
3* Alabama
Inside Odds
3* Late Steam - Sacramento +14
2* Best Bet - Toronto +7.5
Dominic Fazzini
25 Units TX A&M -3
Northcoast Totals
4* Okla/Neb Under
3* Iowa/NW Under
3* Texas A&M/Col Over
2* Kent/Akron Under
2* Wash St/AZ over