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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, November 7,2009

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Lenny Del Genio

Wisconsin vs. Indiana
Play: Wisconsin -10

If games ended at halftime, then Indiana just might be a BCS contender. Unfortunately, you do have to come out for the second half and that's when the problems always seem to occur for the Hoosiers. Two weeks ago, they led at Northwestern 28-3 halfway through the second quarter but would go onto lose 29-28 on a last second Wildcats FG. Last week was even more excruciating, if you can believe it, with IU leading fourth-ranked Iowa by 10 headed into the fourth quarter but terrible officiating and even worse defense (Iowa had TD drives of 92, 66, 55 and 66) sent the game spiralling in a totally different direction and before you knew it the Hawkeyes won 42-28. The poor officiating makes coming back with a strong effort even more difficult, a problem that is amplified by the fact that this will be the 10th straight week Indiana takes the field with no rest. Meanwhile, the value of rest was on full display last week in Madison where the Badgers crushed Purdue 37-0 for us. Note that Wisky ran for 266 yards in the win while allowing the Boilermakers to rush for just 60 and throw for just 81. They totally dominated the game in the trenches and should be able to even further manhandle the Hoosiers here. Note that Wisconsin won on this field last year, 55-10, and that was despite a -3 differential in turnover margin. The Badgers were able to negate that by rushing for 441 yards (a Memorial Stadium record) with RB Clay accounting for 123 of them to go along with three touchdowns. Meanwhile, IU had just 53 total yards in the second half. That kind of domination is nothing new to this series with Wisconsin's 10 wins since 1993 coming by an average of 26 PPG. The disparity is getting even wider with the last four decided by 29 PPG (140-40 L3). The Badgers average 35.3 PPG and 225 yards rushing in their six victories this season and are 14-2 ATS when coming off BB Unders. Wisconsin is our 20* Big Ten Game of the Month.

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:21 am
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Savannah Sports

4* Duke +10
4* Navy +12.5
3* California -7

Eric Degarde

3* Ohio State +5
3* Virginia +13.5
3* Kansas State +2.5

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:23 am
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THE GREATEST

10* Wisconsin -13
5* Arkansas -7
5* Nebraska +4
5* N.Carolina -10
3*Rice +18
3* Illinois +6.5

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:24 am
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Chris James Sports

3* Penn State -5
2* Kansas State +2.5
2* Stanford +7
2* Cincinnati -17

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:29 am
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Marc Lawrence

Nebraska +4

The Cornhuskers play host to Oklahoma in a key Big 12 rivalry in Lincoln looking to avenge last year's 62-28 walloping suffered at Oklahoma. When Nebraska takes the field to will do so off back-to-back previous home losses, a role in which they are 4-0 SU in since 1980. In addition, our database tells us to: Play On any college conference home dog that allows less than 2.6 Yards Per Rush from Game Five out if they are off a double-digit conference win in which they scored 14 or more points provided they have won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games straight-up. That's because these teams are 14-0 ATS since 1980. Look for the Cornhuskers to get their revenge here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Nebraska.

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:30 am
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Harry Bondi

5* USC
3* Tulsa
3* Stanford

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:30 am
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Seabass

400 Nebraska
200 Fla St, Memphis
100 SMU, Missouri, Wisconsin
50 Alabama, Ohio st, Northwestern over
30 Duke, Colorado St

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:32 am
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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Colorado State +1

For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the visitors:

The Rams remain upbeat despite a six-game losing streak that has wiped out all the momentum built from the team’s best start in 15 years.

Look for QB Grant Stucker to return to the form which saw him have a 10-6 TD-to-INT ration in CSU's first five games.

After forcing 12 turnovers in the first four games, CSU has only five takeaways the last five weeks; look for a more concerted effort on both sides of the ball this week.

It's true that Colorado State is is 1-4 ATS its last five overall, however don't forget it's 4-1 ATS its last five vs. UNLV.

On the other side of the field: The Rebels are coming off a 41-0 blanking by the Horned Frogs and must once again run the table to achieve their bowl game goal; I expect a letdown tonight.

It figures CSU will pick up where it left off in last year’s 41-28 comeback win in Fort Collins, when the Rams rushed for 216 yards. UNLV’s defense, which could be without standout junior LB Starr Fuimaono (ankle), has struggled against the run this year, allowing an average of 212.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry. The Rebels have surrendered 18 rushing TDs this year, worst in the Mountain West Conference.

Not only is UNLV 1-5 SU its last six, its also 1-6 ATS its last seven overall.

Bottom line: Look for Colorado State to do just enough in this one to sneak away with the road victory!

7* Colorado State

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:33 am
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Evan Altemus

Oregon/Stanford Over 58.5

I don’t expect a focused effort from Oregon at all in this game because of their big win over USC last week. However, I feel that their lack of effort will be on the defensive side of the ball, as their offense is simply too potent for a questionable Stanford defense to slow down. The Ducks have one of the best offenses in the country right now, evident by their dominance over the Trojans last week. However, USC did move the ball against them for the first half of the game, before having difficulties late. Freshmen quarterback Andrew Luck has almost a full season under his belt now and has been playing better and better with each week. He is arguably the best freshman quarterback in the country right now, and he should have a big game with the aid of running back Toby Gearhart. Stanford’s offense has quietly been very potent lately, and I expect this game to be a back and forth high scoring game.

4 UNIT SELECTION OVER.

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:34 am
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Executive

600 Cal
450 Kansas
150 Bama
100 Oh St
100 Mia Fla

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:34 am
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Tony George

Alabama -7.5

Alabama just better than LSU on both sides of the ball, and winner pretty much wraps up the division title and the right to play Florida in the Champ. Game, barring a major disaster. Alabama’s defense will limit ANY running LSU can do, and you cannot count on them to throw it through the air. Alabama at home is a 4 point advantage, their team in 7 to 10 points better on a neutral site, add it together and Alabama wins by 10-14 points here. The Tide dropped in the polls and are none too happy about it, the respect card is huge here. LSU is good, but Baba has more weapons, better defense and the best RB in the SEC.

Play 1 Unit on Alabama.

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:35 am
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Pointwise Phone Service

4* KANSAS, MARYLAND

3* PENN ST, SMU, NORTHWESTERN, WISCONSIN, GEORGIA TECH

2* UCF, LOUISIANA TECH, ARKANSAS, NEW MEXICO, NEBRASKA

4* SHOULD BE KANSAS St

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:39 am
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ASA

5* K St.
4* Oregon St.
3* Navy
3* Fresno St.

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:41 am
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Heisman Trophy Club

10* Penn St Under

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:43 am
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KBHoops

5* Houston -1.5 **POD**
4* USC -10
4* SMU -17.5
4* Texas A&M -3
3* Mizzou -14
3* Kansas State +3 -125

 
Posted : November 7, 2009 11:49 am
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