Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, October 10,2009

Ron RaymondFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Kentucky vs. South Carolina
Play: Kentucky +10FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Road team - Total is between 44.5 to 47 - Last 4 years - With 6 days off - Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog - Coming off a 2 game losing streak; the Road Team is 9-3-0 ATS in this role.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
*Note: The Gamecocks knocked off a top 5 ranked team in their last game, as they stunned Ole Miss Rebels 16-10 at home and now, they have the Alabama Crimson Tide on deck in a look a head situation. Kentucky has played probably the best 2 teams in the country in their last two games in Alabama and Florida and that will have made them better, even though they lost both games. Kentucky in a stunner!
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FYI: The Kentucky Wildcats are looking to break a nine-game Gamecock win streak in the series, with six of those games decided by seven points or less.

Maddux Sports

5 Units Purdue +3.5
3 Units Temple -13.5
3 Units Georgia Tech +3
3 Units South Carolina -9.5
3 Units Arkansas +3
3 Units North Texas +6

Dr. Bob

Michigan State (-4) 3-Stars at -6 or less, 2-Stars up to -7.
NC State (-14) 3-Stars at -16 or less, 2-Stars up to -17.
Wake Forest (-10 1/2) 2-Stars at -13 or less, 3-Stars at -10.
Purdue (+3 1/2) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
Iowa State (+19 1/2) 2-Stars at +17 or more, 3-Stars at +20 or more.
Temple (-13 1/2) 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars up to -17.
Arizona (-3) 4-Stars at -3 or less, 3-Stars from -3 1/2 to -6 and 2-Stars at -6 1/2 or -7.
Kent State (+3) 4-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars at less than +3.
Toledo (-8) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 4-Stars at -7.

Strong Opinion - Connecticut (+7) Strong Opinion at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion - Stanford (+1) Strong Opinion at -1 or better.

Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack

Matchup: Michigan St at Illinois
Play: Illinois +4.5

ILLINOIS Over Michigan St - Illinois snapped a 9 game series losing streak in their last meeting (‘06, 23-20 +26!, 390-259 yd edge) and after that game the teams fought when the Illini planted a flag in Spartan Stadium. Michigan St is 4-1 ATS in the series but 3-7 ATS after facing rival Michigan. The Spartans survived a 4Q swoon to beat their rivals B2B for the 1st time S/’65-67 thanks to an int in OT for a 26-20 win in which they outrushed the B10’s top running offense (193-28). Both Spartan QB’s played again LW with Cousins (200 ypg, 62%, 7-4 ratio) seeing the majority of the snaps until inj his ankle and Nichol (94, 52%, 5-2 ratio) directed the game winning drive. MSU is #88 in pass eff D all’g a league worst 244 ypg (63%) with a 12-3 ratio. IL only trailed Penn St 7-3 at the half before the Lions scored 21 straight and outrushed the Illini 337-131. B10’s least eff passer QB Williams became IL’s total off leader but struggled again and Zook indicated a change could be made. IL is #105 in pass eff D (234, 66%, 6-2 ratio). IL has been outscored 102-26 vs FBS tms TY with all 3 TD’s scored in the 4Q of blowouts but the Illini awake from their slumber to pull the stunner.

Boston College at Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -13

VIRGINIA TECH Over Boston College - In their last visit here, BC upset #8 VT on National TV with 2 Matt Ryan TD’s in the final 2:11 for the come-from-behind win. LY BC overcame 5 TO’s to beat #17 VT 28-23 in the reg ssn at home, but has dropped two straight ACC Title games to the Hokies. BC is 6-2 as an AD and VT is 6-11-1 as a HF. VT QB Taylor is avg 174 ypg (54%) with a 6-1 ratio. RB Williams is 8th in NCAA in rushing yds (575, 5.2). BC QB Shinskie, in his 2 games as a full-time starter, avg 216 ypg (60%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Harris has 449 rush yds (4.7). Both teams stand at 4-1. VT does have the edge on both sides of the ball (off #37-66, def #18-35) but while BC has shown progress under Shinskie, however, this will only be their 2nd road game and the Eagles had just 54 yd and 4 FD in their first road game (vs Clemson) this year.

Vanderbilt at Army
Play: Army +11

ARMY Over Vanderbilt - Last met in ‘91. Vandy is in an SEC sandwich but needs a win to have any shot at being bowl eligible. Vandy HC Bobby Johnson is very familiar with the option from his days at Furman. Army is 2-9 as a HD. Vandy held Miss, who had been avg 36 ppg, to just 23 despite being banged up on D. QB Smith is avg 140 ypg (47%) with a 2-4 ratio. Vandy, despite being banged up at RB, is avg 195 ypg rushing led by RB Norman with 336 (6.7). Army has lost 4 straight ATS and allowed a late FG to Tulane and missed a game winning 37 yd FG with :12 left. Army was held to a season low 222 yds despite QB Steelman having a career high 95 yds rush. Army is avg 231 ypg rush, led by RB Mealy who has 303 (8.4). Vandy has a big edge on def (#29-77) which should allow them to shut down Army’s upset hopes.

Auburn at Arkansas
Play: Arkansas +3

ARKANSAS Over Auburn - Ark is just 2-4 SU vs Aub and hasn’t beaten AU at home S/‘01. Ark (+16’) trailed 20-10 late 3Q LY, but scored 15 pts in the final 18:02 to win 25-22 as they had a 416-193 yd edge. Ark RB Smith rushed for 176 yds (5.0) in that gm. The visitor is 6-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. This is the 2nd straight tough road gm for Aub. Aub led Tenn 23-6 in the 4Q and UT scored a TD with no time left to make the gm seem closer than it was (26-22). Ark crushed TX A&M 47-19 LW winning a 3H LPS for us. Aub OC Malzahn was the OC at Ark in ‘06 under Nutt but left for Tulsa after ‘07. Ark (+7) upset Malzahn’s #19 undefeated Tulsa tm LY 30-23 but Tulsa had a 528-435 yd edge. Both tms have quick-striking offenses and thin defenses, so points will be plentiful and this could go down to the wire.

Oregon at UCLA
Play: UCLA +6.5

UCLA over Oregon - UCLA dropped their 1st game of the season at Stanford last week giving us and the Bruins may see the return of starting QB Prince (139 ypg, 56%, 2-2 ratio) here after missing the last 2 gms with inj. #2 QB and LY’s starter Craft (195 ypg, 60%, 1-1 ratio) has played well in his absence. In a gm that featured as many punts as FD’s (22), the Bruins held the once high-powered Duck offense to just 148 ttl yds in the 16-0 victory at the Rose Bowl in ‘07. LY UCLA was +19’ on the road but only lost 31-24 as UO QB Masoli struggled in the passing game completing just 5 of 19 for 42 yds (UO did rush for 323 yds, 7.0).The Ducks continued their run with a convincing home win vs WSU a week after their domination of Cal. The visitor is 12-5 ATS in this series and the Ducks are 6-2 SU but UCLA is 13-4 as a HF and 17-5 ATS at home vs conf opp’s. While Oregon comes in off a pair of impressive wins this is their first road trip since getting held to 152 total yds at Boise. The Bruins defense is better than the Broncos.

Bowling Green at Kent
Play: Kent +4

KENT ST Over Bowling Green - BG is 7-1 SU in this series and has won 4 in a row in Dix Stadium. Kent St is 4-18 SU on HC and 2-4 ATS as a HD. BG is 4-1 as an AF but 0-1 TY as we won a 3H LPS on Marshall (+3) over BG. Kent St is off a 31-15 loss at Baylor as a 21 pt AD. RB Terry, who replaced Jarvis (med RS), had his 2nd straight 100 yd gm and leads with 212 (7.9). True Fr QB Keith is avg 147 ypg (60%) with a 4-3 ratio despite only 1 start. BG lost to Ohio as a 4th down pass was deflected in the EZ with 1:40 left. BG had 26-13 FD and 474-419 yd edges but allowed a PR TD. QB Sheehan had a career high 390 yds and is avg 291 ypg (64%) with a 7-2 ratio. RB Geter leads with 291 (4.5). BG has the off edge (#83-116) but KS has the def edge (#93-114) although BG has played a much tougher schedule (#22-105).

TCU at Air Force
Play: TCU -9.5

Tcu Over AIR FORCE -The Horned Frogs know how to shut down the option as they have limited the Falcon rush attack to 146 yds below their ssn avg the last 3 years! LY AF was held to 161 yds with 111 coming on 2 runs and TCU won 44-10 (-19’) at home. Last time here, AF overcame a 14 pt 4Q deficit in their 20-17 OT win in one of Patterson’s toughest losses of his career. AF is #2 in the NCAA avg 292 ypg rush (4.6) but TCU’s rush D is allowing an NCAA best 47 ypg (1.8). LW TCU was in a flat-spot against SMU and it showed with the Frogs struggling early (trailed 7-6 late 2Q). Meanwhile, AF played its most important game of the year LW and lost in OT to Navy and will be in a flat spot TW. TCU is 6-2 ATS vs the Falcons and will remain undefeated with a comfortable win.

Texas-El Paso at Memphis
Play: Texas-El Paso -2

Utep Over MEMPHIS - UTEP was favored in both previous meetings (‘05 and ‘06), but the Miners were upset in both, losing by 13 ppg. UTEP has a bye on deck and is off a huge 58-41 upset win over #12 Houston. The Miners pounded UH on the ground as RB Buckram ran for a career high 262 yds (8.2!) and he now has 560 rush yds (7.2) after rushing for just 348 yds all LY. QB Vittatoe continues to struggle and is avg just 183 ypg (53%) with a 3-5 ratio. Although the numbers may not show it, the D may actually be improved. UTEP has faced 3 potent offenses (KU, TX and Hou), but held Buf and NMSt to just 297 ypg. Mem is off to a 1-4 start and HC West is feeling some serious heat. The Tigers must convert better in the RZ as they have settled for 5 FG’s in 15 redzone att’s. They did get RB Steele back LW, but he only rushed for 22 yds (2.8) vs UCF. Neither team can afford a loss and we expect a tight contest with the team that makes fewer mistakes getting the win.

GA Tech at Florida St
Play: Florida St -2.5

FLORIDA ST over Georgia Tech - Last year Bowden and the Noles lost to GT for the 1st time S/’75 (12-0 prior). The last 6 have been decided by less than 6 ppg. GT has never won in Tallahassee (0-6). LY FSU’s offense ran 9 plays from scrimmage in the 1st 15 mins for -18 yds and GT led 31-20 but lost QB Nesbitt to injury. FSU had a 2nd&gl from the 3 but fmbl’d into the EZ with :45 left losing 31-28 (+2’). This is GT’s 3rd road game in 4W. GT’s last trip here was ‘03 and they almost pulled a major upset losing 14-13 (+23’). Nesbitt is avg 142 ypg (51%) with a 3-2 ratio and has 363 rush yds (3.6). FSU is just 7-17 ATS as a HF with 2 outright losses TY. QB Ponder is avg 285 ypg (67%) with a 4-1 ratio. Surprisingly, GT comes in at 4-1 while FSU is 2-3 (0-4 ATS as a fav). GT has a solid offensive edge (#10-45) but FSU has the slight defensive edge (#31-41) and needs to circle the wagons.

Fresno St at Hawaii
Play: Fresno St -9

Fresno St over HAWAII - UH has won 6 of the L/8 SU (3 in a row) and also 6 of 7 in Honolulu. FSU’s lone win during that stretch was a 27-13 (-13) victory here in ‘05. UH is 8-3 ATS in WAC HG’s and the visitor has covered the L/4 gms and is 3-1 SU. UH QB Alexander (358 ypg, 65%, 9-4 ratio) is OFY (knee) which is a huge blow meaning Moniz (73 ypg, 50%, 0-0 ratio) will need to step it up. He will have WR Salas who leads the NCAA with 150 rec ypg on 26 grabs (23.1). LW vs LT, UH was held without a TD for the 1st time S/’04 (62 gms). The road-weary Warriors spent 17 of 23 days away from home (3 consec AG’s) while Fresno is fresh off a bye and battled-tested having already played two BCS AG’s where they went nose-to-nose with Wisky (34-31 2OT, +7’) and Cincy (28-20, +7). FSU RB Mathews is 2nd in the NCAA in rushing with 592 yds (6.8, 5 TD’s) and despite having a stable of RB’s, HC Hill said he wants to give Mathews the ball as much as possible as he wants him to be the team’s “premiere back.” With Hawaii having our #111 rush D this game looks one-sided while on the other side of the ball Fresno’s D rates the edge vs Hawaii’s backup QB.

Member Plays

Matchup: Ball State at Temple
Play: Temple -13

TEMPLE Over Ball St - First meeting. Ball St is 14-3 as an AD but is on their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. LW Ball St led Toledo 23-14 and after falling behind took a 30-29 lead with :42 left but all’d a 51 yd TD pass with :27 left. BS was outgained 479-310. The Owls have covered 3 straight and have won 2 straight MAC gms. LW they outgained EM 365-280, holding EM to just 50 yds rush (1.7). BS QB Page is avg 149 ypg (52%) with a 5-6 ratio but threw for 234 yds (2-1 ratio) LW. RB Lewis, who led the MAC LY has just 209 yds (3.0). Temple QB Charlton is avg 185 ypg (51%) with a 4-4 ratio, while their top 2 RB’s are Pierce with 364 (6.3) and Griffin with 198 (4.3). While the offenses are close, Temple has a HUGE def edge (#53-108) and that should have the Owls starting 3-0 in MAC play. The Owls defense is clearly perceived as the MAC’s finest and by already holding Buffalo to 13 and E Mich to 12 points they will now overmatch the Cardinals with their depleted O-line.

ROCKETMANFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Georgia Tech @ Florida State
Play: 5* Florida State -2.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Another game where we have a ranked team getting points from an unranked team. A lot of mess going on at Florida State these days with the Chairman of the Board of Trustees wanting Bobby Bowden out after this year. I think the players and Bowden will step it up a notch this weekend. Expect Florida State to play with high intensity Saturday night. The Seminoles are 2-3 for the first time for Bowden since his 1st season 33 years ago. Florida State is 5-1 SU and ATS since 1992 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Florida State is 92-16 SU at home since 1992. Florida State is 12-1 SU overall vs Georgia Tech since 1992 including a perfect 6-0 SU at home vs Georgia Tech since 1992. Yellow Jackets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0. Seminoles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Seminoles are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. Seminoles are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss. We'll play Florida State for 5 units tonight!

PURELOCK

Florida State

RAS

All 1.0 UNIT

Hawaii Under 58.5
Toledo Over 60.5
SMU Over 52
New Mex ST Under 51
Temple Under 48.5

Stanford +1

Doc's Sports

6 Unit Play. Take Fresno State -9½ over Hawaii Top Game of the Weekend.

Lets take a look at Fresno State first! They are currently 1-3, losing to Wisconsin and Cincinnati on the road, and Boise State at home. Hawaii is 2-2 on the season, beating Washington State and Central Arkansas. Last week they got hammered by Louisiana Tech, 27-6. Note in that game they rushed for negative seven yards. There is just no comparison to the talent of opponents that each team has faced.

The Bulldogs will enter this game with revenge, losing 32-29 in overtime last year at Bulldog Stadium. In this game, they outgained the Warriors 522-342 but were done in by six turnovers. Now the Bulldogs return 15 starters with a punishing ground game playing against a defense that returns just two starters. Throw in the fact that Hawaii QB Greg Alexander is out for the season with a knee injury and back-up Brent Rausch is out with a broken finger. Fresno had last week off while the Warriors were making their longest flight of the season to Louisiana Tech.

Just want to mention that when reviewing the Bulldogs yardage thus far in 2009, it appears that they will be able to tear through this weak defense. Fresno must salvage their season here in order to get back on track for a bowl bid. Other then the fact that this game is being played in Hawaii, absolutely nothing else favors the Warriors. This may be the biggest gift of the season. No Rainbow for Hawaii, as the rout is on. Fresno State 42, Hawaii 10.

5 Unit Play. Take Minnesota -3½ over Purdue Top Big 10 Selection.

This is an important game for the Gophers as they and we are coming off a very disappointing performance last week against Wisconsin. But because of their loss, the oddsmakers have given us a very favorable line when they host Purdue this week at TCF Bank Stadium. The Gophers beat a similar Purdue team last year, 17-6, in West Lafayette and the 2009 Purdue squad is really hit hard by injuries. They will enter this game having lost four straight games, all of which have come by seven points or less. That really takes it toll and the schedule gets much more difficult in the future. Purdue led 21-3 last week at home against Northwestern before giving up 24 unanswered points and suffering the defeat. That kind of a setback carries over, especially when going on the road. The favorite has dominated this series, covering nine of the last ten meetings and I expected the Gophers to be laying a touchdown. Laying just half of that is too good to pass up, as Minnesota gets back on track and we collect big in the process as well. Minnesota 31, Purdue 20.

5 Unit Play. Take Ole Miss +5½ over Alabama Top Underdog Play.

The Rebels have lost five straight to the Tide and the last four have been by four points or less. Have to like that stat when getting this many points with a home underdog. Ole Miss is in good hands under Coach Houston Nutt. You can bet that he will have his team ready emotionally and they have the guns to pull the upset, returning 16 starters from 2008. The Rebels are flying under the radar, as they already have a loss in 2009 at South Carolina.

I like the fact that Alabama is playing the second of back-to-back road games, as they were in Lexington last week. If you are a stat player, Coach Houston Nutt is 6-0 ATS as a home dog playing against an opponent with a winning percentage of .800 or better. In my opinion, the talent between these two teams is equal and taking the points at home is the only call. The last four has seen the winning margin four points or less and I will call it again, but the Rebels pull the straight-up victory. Ole Miss 24, Alabama 20.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 48½ in Wisconsin @ Ohio State Top Totals Play.

The Badgers hurt us last week in their victory at the Twin Cities. However, they have yet to see this kind of defense. The Buckeyes have the best defense in the Big Ten. QB Scott Tolzien has played outstanding thus far in 2009 but playing in Columbus is a completely different than what he has seen thus far. A punishing defense and a hostile crowd will present challenges he has yet to experience. I do not expect Wisconsin to be able to run the football and that will create problems in the passing game.

As for Ohio State, it is more of the same with a strong defense and an average offense. QB Terrelle Pryor is just an average passer and he does not have a strong running game with the departure of Beanie Wells to the Arizona Cardinals. When you add it all up, this looks to be low scoring and I expect Wisconsin to struggle to reach double digits. The UNDER gets the call. Ohio State 28, Wisconsin 10.

4 Unit Play. Take UCLA + 3½ over Oregon

This is another home underdog that has an excellent chance to win straight-up. The quarterback position is a real question for both teams. QB Kevin Prince is expected to be back for the Bruins while QB Jeremiah Masoli may be out for the year with a knee injury. The Ducks also have a couple of other injuries and illnesses that have hit the club this week. Look for Coach Neuheisel to get this squad back on track after a loss to Stanford. QB Prince will give the Bruins a shot in the arm with his passing ability. This is Oregon’s first road game since the opener at Boise State and this really looks to be a low scoring game. Got to love the homer getting points. UCLA 20, Oregon 17.

4 Unit Play. Take Connecticut +8 over Pittsburgh

One of the best unknown coaches in the country is Randy Edsall at Connecticut. I Like his style and with a week off he will have a great plan of attack for the Pittsburgh Panthers. UCONN lost last year, 34-10, but one has to wonder how that happened when looking at the yardage. Pittsburgh had only 228 yards. However, five turnovers did them in. This same defense should be more than the Panthers can handle in 2009. QB Cory Endres has looked good for the Huskies and he has the weapons to put points on the board. I certainly have to give the coaching edge to Edsall over Wannstedt, especially with the revenge factor. Would like to call the upset, but the Panthers will win by a whisker. Pittsburgh 24, Connecticut 21.

4 Unit Play. Take LSU +7½ over Florida

Not sure if LSU is as good as their record would indicate. However, this team is talented and will have the desire to pull the upset against the No. 1 team in the country. No question that Florida deserves their ranking with an outstanding defense, but one has to wonder how the offense will react with QB Tebow questionable with a concussion. Over the years I have won a high percentage of games playing a team that falls into this category: two undefeated teams, playing for the conference lead, backing the home underdog. The stat that really opens my eyes is the Tigers record when playing night games in the last decade. They are 43-4 straight-up and will enter Saturday having won their last 32 night games at Tiger Stadium.

With or without Tebow, the Gators are in for a WAR! I really like the fact that I am getting over a touchdown with a team that has won 32 straight home night games. Now make it 33! LSU 28, Florida 24. Note: Bet this game early if you can, the line will go way down in Tebow is ruled out.

5 Unit Play. Take Under 41 in Atlanta @ San Francisco

The 49ers have been one of the most surprising teams in the NFL, currently sitting a 3-1 and just a hail mary pass away from being 4-0. Much of the success of the 49ers can be attributed to a strong physical defense led by their head coach Mike Singletary. They have allowed just 13.5 points per game and held two of their opponents under 11 points. Atlanta will enter with a strong running game led by Michael Turner and that also bodes well for playing the under, since the clock will keep running for most of the game. I expect neither team to reach the 20s in scoring and we will not worry who comes out on top in this game by a field goal. Instead we will easily collect with the under. San Francisco 17, Atlanta 14.

4 Unit Play. Take Carolina -3½ over Washington The Panthers have yet to win a game in 2009, but are coming off a much needed bye week and I expect them to right the ship this Sunday hosting the Redskins. The Redskins have played a very easy schedule thus far and are only 2-2 including a loss to the Detroit Lions. QB Delhomme has been terrible thus far, but I still think he has more ability then QB Campbell. Washington is just 1-4 ATS in their last six road games (1 tie) and failed to put away three of the worst teams in the league (St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay) the last three weeks. The now face a minor step up in class, as the Panthers finally put it together and play a complete game for 60 minutes. Carolina 24, Washington 16.

4 Unit Play. Take Seattle -1 over Jacksonville

The Jaguars will make a long cross country flight to take on the Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest Sunday at Qwest Field in Seattle, WA. The Hawks have been in a bit of disarray again this season with the injury to QB Matt Hasselbeck and as of this writing he is questionable to play on Sunday. Either way, the Hawks will win and move to 2-3 on the 2009 season. Jacksonville has not traveled this far since 2005 and Qwest Field is one of the noisiest venues in the entire league. The Hawks put pressure on QB David Garrard and I am not sold on the Jags receivers with their ability to beat teams deep. Seattle wins in a match-up of similar team where home field is the major deciding factor. Seattle 27, Jacksonville 17. Note: Line my change on this game with QB Hasselbeck's status, we still recommend the pick.

4 Unit Play. Take Over 46 in Indianapolis @ Tennessee

One might figure that the Colts would be favored by more points in this game, but the Titans still warrant respect even though they enter this game at 0-4. Much of this is due to the fact that the Titans are not same team on defense with the loss of Albert Haynesworth. They are giving up 27 points per game and that does not bode well when playing the high-powered Indianapolis Colts led by All-Pro QB Peyton Manning. The Colts are averaging 26 ½ points and will enter this one at LP Field with an unblemished 4-0 record. This is a primetime game and I do not expect the Titans to get blown out and thus in order for them to keep pace, they must be able to match the scoring from Manning and company. They do and thus this one goes easily over the posted number. Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 24.

Strong Opinion Plays:
Take Under 46½ in Oregon at UCLA
Take Under 48 in Michigan at Iowa
Take St. Louis +10 over Minnesota

igz1 sports

3* Vanderbilt -10

Strike Point Sports

3-Unit Play. Take Illinois +4 over Michigan State

Fading the Spartans here after a big win over Michigan. Outside of that win last weekend, Spaty has looked pretty bad and their defense hasn't stopped anyone. That bodes well for an Illini team needing a breakout game and looking for a spark with the newly inserted Eddie McGee at quarterback. MSU is turnover prone and I expect a couple more mistakes in this one. We take the points and back Illinois with their backs against the wall.

5-Unit Play. Take UCLA +3.5 over Oregon

With Nate Costa now starting for the Ducks, I cannot see Oregon facing the Pac 10's best defense and having much success in the air. They will get some yards on the ground, but the OU lacks the offensive weapons to win the battle of the Bruins' defensive unit. In Westwood UCLA is too tough. They bounce back with a victory here in league play.

4-Unit Play. Take Wisconsin +16 over Ohio State

Taking the points here, as not only is this too high for a Badgers team that has just won all year, but OSU has not looked impressive this season. USC showed the blueprint for moving that ball against the Buckeyes and that was on the ground. Wisky has the ability to establish a rushing game and make this game competitive throughout. No more than a touchdown scoreline either way.

4-Unit Play. Take Alabama -5 over Mississippi

Ole Miss continues to be lackluster. Alabama has really shown me a lot. And this 'Bama defense hits hard. Such an impressive defensive unit, and I really like them here against a Mississippi offense that just has not gotten anything going compared to all the hype on them coming into the season. Right now I just don't see how the Rebels switch on the light just like that. The Tide roll by at least a touchdown.

5-Unit Play. Take Stanford +1 over Oregon State

Well look who's in first place in the Pac-10. Yep, the Cardinal, and its not by smoke and mirrors. Stanford is a legit conference threat and they keep it going against an Oregon State team that never seems to know when they are going to bring their game. Stanford has the running game and a nice big arm in quarterback Andrew Luck to build a balanced attack and keep scoring the points. I see over 400 yards on offense and at least 24 points, and more importantly a win on the road.

4-Unit Play. Take UTEP -3 over Memphis

I never expected this Miners team to look at poor on offense as they did in the first month of the season. But they certainly made up for it with a shocking win over Houston. And they didn't just win, but straight up dropped the hammer on the Cougars. So that being said, I would be even more shocked if UTEP resorted back their offensive struggles. Hopefully that victory last week will be the spark to get this team going the rest of the season. Certainly a letdown spot against Memphis, but I see a better effort more than I do a drop-off in this C-USA tilt.

5-Unit Play. Take Washington +3 over Arizona

Washington may have lost its last two games after their upset of USC, but last Saturday against Notre Dame, the Huskies looked very good. Tough loss in OT, however I think they showed exactly what I wanted to see after laying an egg two weekends ago against Stanford. I like the points at home, but we're backing the side we like to win the game. Jake Locker continues to thrive in the passing game and overall Washington is putting it together. Still not buying what Arizona is selling. They lack quality wins and have have both running backs banged up. U of A cannot beat Washington with just one dimension on offense. With a big home field advantage in Seattle, it's dogs over cats in this one.

Week 6 System Totals

2-Unit Play. Take Houston/Mississippi State 'Under' 68.5
2-Unit Play. Take Georgia Tech/Florida State 'Under' 54
2-Unit Play. Take Michigan/Iowa 'Under' 48

Here's our third weekend of system totals. Week one was a winning success. Our second attempt was ruined by several tough beats. Our 'under' in the Penn State/Illinois game saw 35 points scored in the final ten minutes and a bad TD in the final minute, as well as another tough one in the ACC. We still feel like we were on the right side that week and push forward here. Three good spots and we like them to produce a profit.

Bryan Lennard

Miami Ohio at Northwestern

The Redhawk offense which was shut out twice to start the season is showing signs of progress. At the forefront is freshman QB Zac Dysert who started the last two weeks against Kent State and Cincinnati. Dysert is averaging a full 1.2 yards per passing attempt more than season opening starter Daniel Raudabaugh with a quarterback rating of 20 points higher. While the season to date offensive numbers for Miami look weak keep in mind they have faced the terrific defenses of Kentucky, Boise State and Cincinnati. Against Western Michigan and Kent State the offense looked fluid and this Northwestern stop unit hasn't shown the ability to resemble the big three defenses Miami faced earlier. Defensively Miami has really struggled. The opposition has dominated field position in every game this season. Miami's opponents have started their drives on average at their own 36, 41, 49, 47 and 35 yard line. Keep in mind the FBS average is 31 yards. With Miami allowing 6.1, 7.5 and 7.1 yards per play against non-MAC opposition the Wildcats could be in for a record setting offensive performance.

Northwestern has put up 24 points or more in every game this season. Over their last 20 home games they have averaged 27.4 points per game. If you throw out the two times they hosted Ohio State when they were held to 10 points a game you really see how explosive this team has been at Ryan Field Stadium. Defensively the Wildcats have allowed the questionable offenses of Eastern Michigan, Syracuse and Minnesota put up an average of 32 points per game against them.

Miami's offense is on the rise and this Northwestern defense has shown no inclination to slow them down. That said, Miami's defense is allowing 5.28 yards per carry and 7.07 yards per pass attempt. With conference games on tap for both these squads look for the offenses to pad their stats as this one flies over the posted total.

PLAY OVER

BEN BURNS

Top Big 10 Total

I'm playing on Michigan and Iowa to finish UNDER the total. After putting up 30 or more points in each of their first four game, the Wolverines found the going much tougher last week, as they managed only 20 points in an overtime loss vs. Michigan State. Actually 20 points wasn't that bad, considering that the Wolverines managed only 251 yards, (a season-low) including a mere 28 on the ground. This week, they'll face an even tougher defense. The Hawkeyes' defense ranks third in the league allowing just 13.4 points. They also rank second with 14 forced turnovers. The fact that Iowa has not allowed a rushing touchdown in 33 quarters, dating to last season, says a lot about the type of defense this team is currently playing. Note that they held Penn State to only 307 total yards, forcing four turnovers. With that type of defense, it's no surprise that the Hawkeyes have seen four of their five games stay below the total. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 20-9 the Hawkeyes' last 29 lined games. While the Michigan defense (allowing 23.4 ppg) hasn't been as stout as the Iowa defense, the Hawkeyes aren't exactly explosive on offense. As usual, Iowa likes to run the ball. They've had more than 30 rushing attempts in all five games, averaging more than 35. They're only averaging 3.9 yards per carry though. That adds up to a lot of second and third downs, where the clock is still moving. QB Stanzi is certainly capable, as he demonstrated in last week's big performance vs. Arkansas State. That said, he's now got seven interceptions, to go along with his eight touchdowns. Ferentz knows how important this game is (Hawkeyes have never been 5-0 with him as coach, let alone 6-0) and he knows that if he can limit Stanzi's mistakes, his team has a great chance. As a result, I expect another fairly conservative offensive gameplan. These teams haven't faced each other since 2006. However, if we look at the three meetings from 2004-2006 we find that all three of them produced 47 combined points or less. Those three games averaged only 38.67 points, most recently a 20-6 "defensive battle" in October of '06. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here, with the final combined score staying beneath the generous number, the largest one Iowa has seen all year. *10 Top Big 10 Total

Freddy Wills

10* Oregon State PK POD

Going with the Beavers at home in this situation. Let's give Stanford the credit they deserve as they have started 4-1 in impressing fashion, but this will be their most challenging test on the road against Oregon State team that is starting to get on a roll after an impressive PAC-10 victory over a talented Arizona State tteam 28-17. Arizona State is no joke as they rank 8th in total defense and 9th in pass defense yet Oregon State was able to go into their stadium and beat them. Oregon State will be on revenge after losing in Stanford last year 28-36. Stanford is off a win against UCLA 24-16 and seems to be the real deal so far, but keep in mind they are 3-0 in the conference by beating three teams picked to finish at the bottom of the conference this year Wash State, Washington, and UCLA.

For me it is is as simple as what each team has to do to win, and for Oregon State it's pretty basic stop the run and Toby Gerhart and you win this game. Oregon State ranks 12th in rush defense, but it should or could be a lot higher as they have faced teams that don't run the ball. Stanford on the other hand will have to stop two parts of the game and that is the Rodgers brothers Quizz in the run game and James in the passing game who is coming off a 10 reception performance last week. While Stanford does have a weapon in Ryan Whalen as a receiver who is second in the Pac-10 in receiving yards, Oregon State has the counter to this weapon in Brandon Hardin who had an interception in his first start. He is one of the more physically gifted men on this roster and I expect him to excel in his second start. He's also a great open field tackler.

What other advantages does Oregon State have here on Saturday? Well Stanford has been very bad on the road and they have not been tested to this point. They were home against UCLA and Washington and visited Washington State which is basically the joke of a very good Pac-10 conference. Stanford has lost 9 of their last 11 games away from home. Oregon State has more talent than the first three opponents and they'll be able to stop Gerhart at home forcing redshirt quarterback Andrew Luck to have a big day. On the other side Stanford's D has some major issues against the run and they will now face their most difficult task and it comes on the road against Jacquizz Rodgers the reigning Pac-10 offensive player of the year last year as a freshmen. Remember Oregon State is a very good team at home and they beat USC, Cal, and Arizona State last year at home. If you remember previous years this is the time of year Oregon State leap frogs in progression and makes a stand and this weekend I think they have an easier task than many think which is why you will hear many people talking about Oregon State next week because right now Stanford is the talk of the Pac-10. Beaver QB Canfield will face an inexperienced secondary and will have James Rodgers open on slants making him very dangerous.

The X factor- home field advantage obviously which is what we mentioned above, but Stanford has fumbled 12 times losing seven and has been the biggest struggle of this offense. Turnovers are what change and decide games a lot of the time and with the crowd behind them in their first real conference road game because I don't count Washington State I think they'll struggle. Note Stanford has not lost a fumble this season and they are one of just 5 schools that can claim this impressive stat.

6* Western Michigan +10
2* Western Mich +305

I am fading Toledo again just like I did a week ago when they visited Ball State. I got moosed big time at the end of that game to find out how go and look at Payne Sports blog in BAD BEATS. That is neither here or there as I think I'm getting a hole bunch of value with Western Mich an early favorite for the MAC title that has struggled thus far. Western Michigan has had a challenging schedule so far as they had earlier games at Michigan and Indiana and played well! This line is the way it is because they went to Northern Illinois and stunk it up big time in a 3-38 loss. That's why it's an error in my opinion. I'm not saying Western Mich will win, but it's not a 9.5 point spread type game which is where it has soared to I bet by Saturday you can get it at +10 easily. This is why Western Mich played @ Norther Illinois without their best WR Juan Nunez who will be returning this week after suffering with a bruised knee injury. He will spread the field out as he's got good speed on the year he has 23 receptions for 341 yards nad this is bad news for Toledo who gave up 30 points to Ball State and are ranked 104th in pass defense and 98th in rush defense. So that's two things Western Mich has going for them into this game, a target back on offense and a poor defense. Norther Illinois is good! They ranked 51 overall on defense 64 against the pass and they played well enough to win @ Wisconsin (20-28) and they won @ Purdue so it's not like they beat cup cakes for those rankings. I expect Tim Hiller to bounce back from a poor performance against a poor pass defense and their defense to step up big time as they are a desperate team.

Tony George

Utah Utes vs. Colorado State Rams
Play: Colorado State

Colrado State a capable team here as a Live home dog. They are 6-0 ATS at home with new coach Fairchild, and Utah has a iffy JUCO QB and a depleted RB unit with star RB Asista out with injury. This is not last years team that beat up Alabama in a bowl game, this Utah team is far less impressive and Colorado State happy to be home after road losses. This will be a tight game and CSU will pound the rock and are capable of big plays, especially at home.