BIG AL
Navy +3.5
Florida State -12
RAS
South Florida
SMU
RAS
Florida St. / Duke Over 54.5
BYU / Oregon St. Over 49.5
E Michigan / C Michigan Under 53
Colorado / Washington Under 59.5
UCF / SMU Over 44.5
Wunderdog
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia +7
Georgia Tech is off to a stellar 6-0 start. Paul Johnson has defied all the experts when he came to Georgia Tech proclaiming he could run the triple option. Everyone said he was in for a surprise, and it wouldn't work at this level. The surprise is that it does work, and this class is all his recruits in his fourth year, and they are pounding the rock for over 360 yards per game. Just when Tech seemed unstoppable, Maryland held them to 272 yards on 60 carries, or just 4.5 yards a tote. Tevin Washington was brilliant in the first few games, but he has slowed way down, so it is run or done for the Yellow Jackets right now. Virginia has one defensive strength, and that is their ability to defend the run very well. They have allowed just 3.46 yards per carry, and can offer enough resistance at home to stay in the game, especially with a soft Tech defense that is allowing 24.2 points per game. The Yellow jackets are unresponsive after a bye week at 3-8 ATS in their last 11, and the Cavaliers are retrieving the cash as a home dog of +3.5-10 to the tune of an 11-5 ATS mark in their last 16. Wahoos here.
Dr. Bob
Navy (+4) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars down to +1.
Toledo (-7.5) 2-Stars at -10 or less, 3-Stars at -7 or less.
Temple (-20.5) 3-Stars at -23 or less, 2-Stars up to -24.
Utah (+6.5) 3-Stars at +6 or more, 2-Stars down to +3.
Oregon (-14) 2-Stars at -14 or less.
Baylor (+9.5) 2-Stars at +7 or more, 3-Stars at +10.
New Mexico State (pick) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars up to -4.
Tulsa (-21) 2-Stars at -21 or less.
Utah State (-2.5) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars up to -6.
Strong Opinions
Miami-Fl at North Carolina OVER (51.5) Strong Opinion Over 54 points or less.
Michigan State (-2.5) Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less.
David Malinsky
4* Michigan St -2.5
This line is wrong. In making Michigan State a favorite by less than the home field advantage the markets are trying to tell us that Michigan is the better team. Are the Wolverines improved under Brady Hoke? Yes. Are they improved enough to be in this price range? No.
Consider the gap that has to be closed. The past three seasons the Spartans have out-scored Michigan by 37 points on the scoreboard, and there has not been anything fluky in those counts – first downs were 66-46, and total offense 1,426-880. That is substantial. Now State has two full weeks to prepare, which certainly helps against the likes of Denard Robinson, and note that they held Robinson to less than 100 yards rushing, and intercepted him three times, in LY’s easy 34-17 win in Ann Arbor.
You will read from a variety of sources about how improved the Wolverine defense is. But so much of that is circumstantial (e.g., Eastern Michigan was just trying to work the clock and keep the score down, with 46 running plays vs. only six passes; Minnesota was without QB MarQueis Gray). Note that there have been two games against teams that they also played in 2010, and that each of those opponents had more production this season – Notre Dame improved from 28 first downs and 461 yards to 28 and 513, while Northwestern went from 22 and 385 to 26 and 439. For comparison stake, the Notre Dame production came in Ann Arbor, while State went to South Bend and held the Fighting Irish to almost half of what they gained against Michigan (513 vs. 275).
A Michigan State win by three points should not put us in the money here. But it does, and that makes it easy to get in the game.
KB Hoops
7* Florida -2
5* Oregon St -3
5* Arizona St +14.5
Info Plays
7* Pittsburgh -6
Frank Patron
Georgia Tech -7
Jack Clayton
5* Auburn +2
The Florida Gators (4-2 SU/ATS) have all kinds of problems, with junior QB John Brantley (5 TDs, 3 INTs) battling a high ankle sprain and true freshman QB Jeff Driskel on the shelf. Freshman QB Jacoby Brissett started last week, the first Florida freshman quarterback to take his first career snap as a starter, a move made because of injuries to senior John Brantley and freshman Jeff Driskel. Florida was so desperate on offense that had to use the Wildcat. The Gators are 2-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Auburn Tigers (4-2) run an uptempo attack under offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, averaging 28 points and over 180 yards rushing and passing. Junior QB Barrett Trotter (9 TDs, 6 INTs) is fine and the defense is improving with a 16-13 upset at No. 10 South Carolina. The ground game has 5-9 sophomore RB Michael Dyer and junior RB Onterio McCalebb. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Gators are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Play Auburn!
4* Georgia -11
Georgia (4-2 SU/3-2 ATS) has a fine offense, averaging 30 points, 225 yards passing and 163 rushing behind sophomore Aaron Murray (13 TDs, 6 INTs) and talented freshman RB Isaiah Crowell. Isaiah Crowell ran for two touchdowns as Georgia beat Tennessee 20-12 on Saturday night to give coach Mark Richt his 100th career victory. The win keeps the Bulldogs (3-1 SEC) in a two-way tie with South Carolina for first in the Southeastern Conference East Division. The defense (20 ppg allowed) has talent, led by senior LB Marcus Downtin and LBs Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree, plus 3 returning starters in the secondary lead a group that was 17th nationally in pass defense a year ago. Georgia has used a no-huddle offense and three-and four-receiver sets, trying to be more uptempo. Aaron Murray threw two touchdown passes in the first quarter, Isaiah Crowell ran for 104 yards and Georgia took advantage of a strong start to beat Mississippi State 24-10. That was against a run-oriented team and they face another one here. Vandy (3-2 SU/2-2 ATS) doesn’t have much offense for new Coach James Franklin. They may average 23 points, but the ground and passing games average less than 135 yards each. Senior QB Larry Smith (3 TDs, 3 INTs) is a better runner than passer, so they’ve turned to junior QB Jordan Rodgers (1 TD, 2 INTs). The last two games they’ve scored 3 and 0 points to SEC teams. The offense didn’t look good with 259 yards and 3 turnovers but they squeezed out a 24-21 win over sloppy UConn. They had a 21-3 loss at South Carolina getting outgained 367-77! The offense had 4 yards rushing and 3 turnovers. The Commodores are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Play Georgia!
3* Clemson -8
I don't think much of rebuilding Maryland, especially on defense, and they won't be able to hang with red hot Clemson (6-0 SU/5-0 ATS). They have a new look offensively as Coach Dabo Swinney hired Tulsa's Chad Morris as offensive coordinator. Morris had spent last year running Tulsa's attack, leading the Golden Hurricanes to 41.4 points a game. Sophomore QB Tajh Boyd (15 TDs, 3 INTs) leads the offense that is striking for 35 points, 284 yards passing and 196 rushing. They are off a 36-14 victory over Boston College on Saturday. The Clemson is potent and balanced with junior RB Andre Ellington. 9 starters return on offense, 7 on 'D'. The defense is strong, allowing 21 points per game. Boyd and No. 13 Clemson became the first Atlantic Coast Conference team to beat ranked teams three weeks in a row, and did it resoundingly with a 23-3 victory against No. 11 Virginia Tech. The Hokies had a miserable night offensively, gaining 258 yards. Clemson has converted 53 percent of its third-down opportunities, which has allowed it to keep defenses on the field and suck the life out of its opponents with its relentless, no-huddle attack. Maryland (2-3 SU/2-2 ATS) is in the middle of a perilous stretch in which it must face three top-25 teams over three weeks. The Terps are off a loss to Georgia Tech, 21-16, but it was a bit misleading, down 21-3 after 3 where the offense had just 176 total yards Junior QB Danny O'Brien (4 TDs, 6 INTs) is below average. The defense can't rush the passer and allowed 480 yards (388 passing) to West Virginia and a 38-7 loss to Temple. They were outgained by 42 yards in a 28-3 win over Towson, giving up 161 yards rushing. Good luck stopping Clemson! Play Clemson.
Platinum Wins
3* LSU -17
2* Baylor +9.5
2* Georgia Tech -7
2* Clemson -7.5
Joseph D'Amico
Georgia vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Georgia -11
Georgia is looking like a force in the SEC East. The 'Dawgs defense has emerged to be a scary unit, giving up just 8.7 PPG in their current 4 game hot-streak. This bodes well for them considering they face the "offensively-challenged" Commodores who rank 117th in total offense and are a laughable 18.5% on 3rd downs. Vandy has not just lost (SU and ATS) their L2, they got smoked. The Commodores were outscored by a combined 55-3 t South Carolina and Alabama. Their "O" just can't move the ball. Remember that Georgia won and covered at Mississippi and Tennessee over the last month. With or without WR Malcolm Mitchell (check status), it won't matter. Georgia has an arsenal that would make any military jealous. Throw in the fact that their defense has stepped-up big-time, and the Bulldogs are a solid play here. The road team is 11-5 ATS their L16 meetings. Georgia is 6-2 ATS their L8 games played at Vanderbilt, 5-1 ATS their L6 games played in October, and 4-1 ATS their L5 games played as a road favorite. The Commodores are 1-8 ATS their L9 Conference games, 0-4 ATS their L4 games played in October, and 1-9 ATS their L10 as a 'dog. Take Georgia.
Rob Vinciletti
Michigan St
On Saturday the Big 10 Play is on Michigan. St. Game 152 at 12 noon eastern. The Spartans fit a tight system that plays on rested conference homers off a win vs an opponent off a win by 10 or more points. Michigan stormed back from a 10 point deficit to put away Northwestern by 18 points. This game will be much more difficult as they take on a State team that has a big defensive edge and its enough to quell the Michigan offensive edge. Michigan is 2-13 ats in conference play and 2-12 ats vs winning teams. Even worse is their 1-14 ats spread record in game 6 or later when not taking 4 or more points. Michigan is also 0-12 ats with conference revenge and 1-6 ats before Purdue games while Michigan state has covered 9 of the last 10 times when playing off a conference dog win. They have the extra week of rest and that should help in stopping Michigan qb Robinson. Michigan St is also 13-2 ats off a win and cover vs an opponent off back to back wins and covers. Look for Michigan St to move to 9-3 ats in the series. Take Michigan St
South Florida
On Saturday the Big East Power System Side is on South Florida. Game 181 at 3:30 eastern. USF Fits a tight 96% system that plays on game 6 teams with rest off their first loss of the season vs an conference opponent if they are off back to back spread losses. There's more to it but that's the bases system. USF Plays with Home loss revenge and is 6-1 ats on the road when the total is 45.5 to 49. U.Conn has taken a big step backwards this season and has an anemic offense and has covered just one of their 6 games this season. USF has an offense that is 170 yards better and has even played better on defense. This one could get ugly today. Take USF
Dom Chambers
80 Dime South Florida
30 Dime Wyoming
South Florida at Connecticut: South Florida was on a roll after beating Notre Dame, but then went to Pitt and got smacked in the mouth. They were routed 44-17. They had a bye week, so that loss has sat with them for two weeks.
The Bulls will be looking to get back on track after that last road trip.
South Florida has the size and speed to dominate Connecticut. The Huskies rank 101 in the nation offensively. Look for the Bulls’ defense to have a good day and Connecticut to have a hard time trying to get anything going.
South Florida’s defense allows only 22.4 points a game and 355 yards total offense. Those numbers are skewed by the beating the Bulls took at the hands of Pitt. Their defense is a little better than those numbers indicate. Connecticut is nothing to get excited about on offense. They average only 23.3 points a game and 331 total yards on offense.
The big edge for South Florida will be their offense. Behind quarterback B.J. Daniels and running back Darnell Scott, the Bulls average 39.8 points a game and 504 total yards on offense. In UConn’s last three games, they have given up an average of 450 total yards and 28 points a game.
If the Bulls are successful on offense, the Huskies will not be able to keep pace. They just do not have the horses to put up big numbers, offensively.
In UConn's six games, they only covered once. That was the 17-3 win over Buffalo. They lost four of the five games and did not cover any of those games. The Bulls have covered three of the five games this season so far.
UNLV at Wyoming:
UNLV could very well be one of the worst teams in the country. They are coming off an embarrassing loss to Nevada where it completed only one pass and ran for just over 100 yards.
The Rebels did beat Hawaii earlier this season, but they did that because the Warriors committed four turnovers and gave the Rebels short fields to work with.
Wyoming will not have those turnover problems and the Rebels are going to have to actually have some offense to put points on the board. Wyoming only averages 1.4 turnovers a game.
UNLV at this point can’t put up many points and will not be able to keep pace with Wyoming. The Rebels are averaging only 16 points a game and only 8 points for road games. They are giving up 41.6 points a game.
Wyoming’s stats are a little better. They are averaging 28.2 points a game, while giving up 34 points a game and only 26.7 for home games.
Neither team is outstanding, but the Cowboys are a little more respectable than the Rebels.
For UNLV, they have had three road games and lost by an average of 49-8.
Jeff Benton
60 Dime Michigan State
10 Dime Penn State
I know a ton of folks are on the Brady Hoke bandwagon, as Hoke has rallied the Wolverines to a 6-0 start, but here is where a wheel falls off the wagon, as this is only Michigan's second road game of the season, and it is a major step up from their road game at Northwestern last Saturday.
Michigan State was off last week, and their last game was that 10-7 defensive blanket that they threw down on Ohio State in Columbus on October 1st. Old Sparty has a defense that can match that of Michigan, and they have a quarterback in Kirk Cousins that knows a thing or two about winning against the Wolverines, as MSU is on three game series win and cover streak, and they are also 8-3 against the spread the last eleven series meetings at Spartan Stadium.
Michigan is just 3-7 as the road underdog the past three seasons, and while it is true that mark was compiled under the departed Rich Rodriguez, my jury is still out on Denard Robinson piercing this Spartans defense on their home turf.
State's straight up home win streak stands at ten in a row, and this price is low enough for me to believe that a win today will also produce a cover. Spartans the call in this rivalry game.
I look at the line on this Purdue-Penn State game, and all I can think is how the linemakers are baiting you into backing the Boilers with what looks like a very generous spot.
I say very generous because Penn State's offense has been held to 16-points or fewer in four of their six games to date. That's OK, because the Nittany's have a defense that is allowing just over ten points per game, and this game will represent Purdue's toughest challenge. The Boilermakers lone "step up" game was against Notre Dame, and the Irish tallied 38-points and racked up well over 500 total yards of offense in that game.
I have a feeling the Nittany Lions will be able to up their anemic point totals in this game. Penn State is on a 7-2 series spread run, and they have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings at Beaver Stadium. Penn State covers again.
Lay the double-digits.