Red Zone Sports
3* Florida -7.5
Trace Adams
2000* GOY - Utah
Brandon Lang
Oregon State +2
Joey Cassano
Alabama -20.5
The Duke's Sports
North Carolina Under (48) for 2.5 Units
North Carolina has struggled in this series and it won't be easy for them at this venue. This series has gone 0-4-1 O/U in the last 5 and no game over that span eclipsed 42 points. NC is 5-12 O/U as a road favorite. VA, which has an anemic offense, is 0-4 O/U as a home dog of 3' to 10 points. The NC defensive speed will surely limit the Cavaliers from the end zone. The Cavaliers are 16-33-3 O/U in their last 52 conference games. "Under" the call.
ATS Lock Club
20 Units Colorado +2
8 Units Toledo -3.5
7 Units Rutgers -7
6 Units Pitt -1.5
5 Units SMU +1.5
6 Units Oreg St Under 60.5
5 Units V Tech Over 56
5 Units S Carolina Over 55
5 Units Troy Over 59.5
Matt Rivers
300,000 - Nebraska -10
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Philadelphia (-170) over San Francisco
Philadelphia has won 7 consecutive games when playing in the 1st game of a playoff series and they have also won 19 of the last 23 home games when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less. Roy Halladay has won 5 consecutive games when playing on a Saturday and he is 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 1.08.
50* Play New York (-120) over Texas
New York pitcher, Phil Hughes is 2-0 vs. Texas over his career with an ERA of 0.00 and he is also 2-0 over the last 3 overall starts with an ERA of 1.86. Texas pitcher, Colby Lewis has lost 13 of the last 15 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he is 0-2 vs. New York over his career with an ERA of 6.89.
NHL Hockey Saturday
25* Play Nashville (+110) over Washington
JEFF BENTON
50 DIME - CALIFORNIA
15 DIME - TCU
CALIFORNIA
Call me stubborn, but for the second straight week I’m fading USC with my big play.
Clearly, I was wrong in my analysis last week when I predicted the Trojans would be flat after their last-second 32-31 home loss to Washington on Oct. 2. But now after a SECOND straight heartbreaking loss in the closing moments? I just don’t see this team – which, again, has nothing to play for because of NCAA penalties that make the Trojans ineliaible for a bowl game or a Pac-10 title – responding positively.
Even if Lane Kiffin can get his squad recharged, he still has major issues with his defense. Against three offensively challenged opponents – Virginia, Minnesota and Washington State – USC’s defense looked stout, allowing an average of just 17 points per game. But against three opponents that can move the football – Hawaii, Washington and Stanford – the Trojans were completely gashed, giving up 36, 32 and 37 points and a total of 1,602 yards (534 per game!).
Well, with the exception of a 10-9 loss at Arizona two weeks ago, Cal’s offense has been phenomenal, putting up 52, 52, 31 and 35 points while averaging 440.5 total yards per game (229.5 rushing ypg). And unlike USC, Cal can play defense. Yes, the Bears got shredded by Nevada’s “Pistol” offense in a 52-31 loss a month ago (yielding nearly 500 yards), but otherwise Cal has surrendered a total of 27 points in four other games, and those four opponents averaged less than 200 yards per contest.
Two additional factors to consider:
1) The Bears have had their heads handed to them recently by USC, which has won six straight meetings by an average of 15.8 ppg with Cal scoring a total of 59 points (including a single field goal each of the last two years). Thus the Bears will be very much motiivated by revenge today – they know this is the best chance they’ve had in years to finally get over on the mighty Trojans.
2) USC has some pointspread issues coming into this contest. Although the Trojans covered the spread at Stanford last week (as a 10-point underdog), they’re 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite, 2-6 ATS in their last eight at home (all as a favorite), 4-11 ATS in their last 15 conference games and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 when coming off a spread-cover.
In fact, not once in their last 30 games going back to September 2008 have the Trojans cashed in back-to-back contests. That streak continues here as Cal will score the outright upset – and if USC falls behind early, we could be looking at a double-digit rout!
TCU
This pointspread is through the roof – so much so that when this game was put on the board at one Vegas sportsbook in mid-June, TCU was a 10-point favorite. So we’re talking a line shift of nearly 20 points! The fact I’m still willing to take a “bad” number tells you what a mismatch this really is.
Yes, BYU finally ended a four-game slide with last week’s 24-21 home win over San Diego State, but that victory came with some help from above. The replay officials in the press box botched a call that went against San Diego State and led to a BYU touchdown (and led to three suspensions this week by the Mountain West Conference).
Even in the victory, freshman QB Jake Heaps struggled, going just 15-for-22 for 126 yards, no TDs and one INT. Heaps is completing just 52.7 percent of his passes with one TD and four INTs, and his 4.9 yards per pass attempt is atrocious. Now he’s facing at TCU defense that’s giving up just 10.3 points and 230.2 total yards per game, including a measly 134.2 passing yards per outing. That latter figure is astounding when you conlider the unbeaten Horned Frogs have been up big in every game, forcing opponents to throw the football.
That TCU defense has pitched back-to-back shutouts the last two weeks against conference foes Colorado State (27-0) and Wyoming (45-0), and in four of its last five games the Frogs have surrendered just 17 points … total! While BYU did produce a season-high point total last week, the once-prolific Cougars offense is still netting just 16.7 points and 329 yards per game, including 13.3 ppg in three double-digit road losses at Air Force (35-14), Florida State (34-10) and Utah State (31-16).
The Horned Frogs, who clobbered much more explosive BYU squads the last two years by scores of 32-7 (home) and 38-7 (road), can name the score in this one. And seeing that TCU is in the national championship hunt, there will be no let up from this squad no matter how big the fourth-quarter advantage is.
ASA
7* IOWA -3
ATS Lock Club
4 Units SF/PHI Under 6
ATS Lock Club
20 Units Baylor +2
Should be 20 Units Colorado +2
Rainman
5* Indiana -10
5* Florida St -21
5* NC St -7
3* Georgia Tech -18
3* Ohio St -4
Joseph D'Amico
Boston College Eagles vs. Florida State Seminoles
Play: Florida State Seminoles -21
The Seminoles have been scratching and clawing their way up the polls. Their defense is tops in the nation in sacks and is yielding a mere 15.7 PPG. Since losing to Oklahoma, FSU has won and covered 4 straight by a combined score of 144-41. In their L2 home games vs. FBS opponents, they outgained BYU 427-191 and Wake Forest 485-185. RBs Chris Thompson and Jermaine Thomas have combined for 807 YR and 10 TDs. QB Christian Ponder has the team feeling very confident. They face a Boston College squad that has lost 3 in a row and has failed to cover 9 straight. The Eagles seem to worsening with each game. They can not run the ball and have huge issues at the QB position. Over their L3 games, BC has mustered just 30 combined points while giving up 94. Gone are the days of Doug Flutie. Boston College is 0-4 ATS their L4 road games, 0-5 ATS their L5 conference games, and 1-4 ATS their L5 as a ‘dog of 10 ½ or more points. Florida State is 4-0 ATS their L4 games played as a favorite and 4-1 ATS their L5 conference games. Take FSU.
David Malinsky
4* MICHIGAN STATE/ILLINOIS UNDER
There is a lot of “old school” going on in this one, on both sides of the ball, and that means neither the offensive efficiency, or the pace, to get this scoreboard into the 50’s. It suits both coaches fine, and therefore us as well.
Illinois has gone 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and the formula is easy to see – Ron Zook has focused on slowing the pace (131 runs vs. 66 passes in those games), and utilizing the new schemes of Vic Koenning that have greatly improved a defense that was such a disappointment LY. Of course slowing the pace on offense is also by necessity – while QB Nathan Scheelhaase is mobile, he brings neither accuracy down the field or experience, and the WR corps lacks depth (Jarred Fayson and A. J. Jenkins have 39 of the 58 receptions). The longest pass completion in a lined game has been for just 34 yards. But with Scheelhaase and Mikel Leshoure (606 yards at 5.8 per carry) working the clock overland, they can play a battle for field position. When combined with the defensive improvements it has led to the opposition having their season low of total offense in all three of those underdog covers, and they are up to 20th nationally in total defense, and 21st in scoring defense. If anything, staying in the hunt into the 4th quarter vs. Ohio State two weeks ago, and then dominating Penn State last week, brings even more of a focus on playing at that pace (only 245 offensive snaps in the two games combined).
Michigan State will be well-prepared to face a running QB, after having to deal with Denard Robinson last week, and there is little fear of Illinois making big plays (the Illini do not have a TD of 40 yards or more against a lined opponent). But nothing comes easily for the Spartans either – they are at their best when attacking the middle overland, setting up play action passes for Kirk Cousins down the field, and that goes directly into the strength of the Illinois defense, DT Corey Liuget, MLB Martez Wilson, and S’s Trulon Henry and Tavon Wilson. With DE Clay Nurse providing a pass rush on the outside, and with CB Terry Hawthorne now ready for full-time action after returning against Penn State, this defense can stand toe-to-toe on this field, which means few long drives, and also FG’s instead of TD’s when State does reach the scoring zone (nothing new - they had to kick four in those Big 10 wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State the past two weeks, all coming after the offense had gotten inside the 25-yard line).