Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, October 17,2009

Dr. Bob

Michigan State (-13 1/2) 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars up to -16.
Temple (-10) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -12.
Alabama (-17) 2-Stars at -17 or less, Strong Opinion from 17 1/2 to 19.
Nebraska (-9 1/2) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -13.
Hawaii (+9 1/2) 3-Stars at +7 or more, 4-Stars at +10 or more, 2-Stars from +6 1/2 to +5.
Fresno State (-19) 2-Stars at -21 or less.

Strong Opinion - Baylor (+2 1/2) Strong Opinion at +2, 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more.
Strong Opinion - Ohio (-13 1/2) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Strong Opinion - Southern Miss (-14) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Strong Opinion - UCF (+15) Strong Opinion at +14 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +16.
Strong Opinion - SMU (+7 1/2) Strong Opinion at +7 or more.

Purelock

Florida Atlantic

Teddy Covers

20* Big Ticket: Houston -17

Virginia -3.5
Baylor +1.5
Wyoming +10.5
New Mexico State +20.5
SMU Over 56 -110
Fresno State -19.5

Tim Trushel

20* Wisconsin

Maryland
Miami Oh.
Notre Dame
Colorado

BLACK WIDOW

6* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Air Force -10

Air Force actually finds themselves sitting behind Wyoming in the standings right now. The Falcons are 3-3 after back-to-back heartbreaking losses against Navy and TCU. They lost both games by a field goal, so look for Air Force to come out very hungry Saturday at home against 4-2 Wyoming. The Cowboys have won 3 straight since losing to Colorado 0-24 on the road, and they are riding high right now. But Wyoming players are about to get knocked off their pedestal as Air Force hits them in the mouth with one of the best rushing attacks in the country. The Falcons are averaging 281 rushing yards/game this year. Air Force beat Wyoming 23-3 on the road last season behind 261 rushing yards from their offense, and 5 turnovers forced by their defense. The Falcons are forcing their opponents to cough up the ball again this year, forcing 20 turnovers in just 6 games. They have only turned the ball over 4 times for a +16 turnover margin. We always like teams like this that take care of the ball and win the turnover battle. Air Force is probably the best 3-3 team in the country, with their only losses coming by 7 points at Minnesota, 3 points against Navy and 3 points against a Top-25 TCU team last week. This team is certainly underrated right now, and that's why this line is so soft at just 10 points. Air Force is 13-0 ATS (+13.0 Units) when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons. Wyoming is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons. That's a PERFECT 25-0 ATS Angle in favor of the Falcons in a great spot at home Saturday. Take Air Force and lay the points.

5* Sooners/Longhorns ABC "Total" Money Maker OVER 51

Fireworks will ensue Saturday in the Red River Rivalry as both offenses light it up once again. When you consider Oklahoma is scoring 35.0 points/game without their starting QB for half of it and Texas is putting up 47.2 points/game this season, you can see why the odds makers have set this Total well too low Saturday. Last year Texas won 45-35 for 80 combined points. Though 80 points are not expected again in this year's meeting, it wouldn't surprise us to see a similar final score in 2009. Oklahoma is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Texas is 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. The Longhorns are 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992. After 80 combined points last year, all value is on the OVER Saturday especially with both starting QB's in Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy back leading their offenses. Take the OVER 51 points here.

4* Kentucky +14

Auburn finally lost their first game of the season, 23-44, to Arkansas last week. The Tigers are a bit overrated right now after their fast start, and they are not 14 points better than the Wildcats Saturday. Kentucky has faced 3 very tough games in a row, which has them battle-tested and ready to give Auburn a run for their money this weekend. The Wildcats lost to Florida 7-41, but they were down 31-0 at halftime and fought tough in the second half. They improved with their next game in a 20-38 loss to Alabama, but 4 turnovers did them in. The Wildcats lost 26-28 at South Carolina last week after a failed 2-point conversion at the end that would have tied it. So as you can see, Kentucky is improving with every game and they are primed to come out with their best effort of the season Saturday. Auburn has actually gotten worse with every game they've played this season, and their defense has given up 22 or more points in each of their last 5 games. For the season, the Tigers are allowing 27.2 points/game. We don't see Auburn getting enough stops on that end to keep Kentucky from covering this two-touchdown spread, let alone win the game. The Wildcats are scoring 34.0 points/game on the road this year. Auburn is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Kentucky is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992. Take Kentucky and the points.

4* Arkansas +24.5

Arkansas is getting their act together after blowout wins in back-to-back weeks. They beat Texas A&M 47-19 two weeks ago as a 2-point favorite and then followed that up with a 44-23 victory over Auburn as a 2-point underdog. Head coach Bobby Petrino has his team peaking at the right time with Florida up next. The Gators are in a letdown spot here after beating #4 LSU 13-3 last week. That was the biggest game left on their schedule, and when Florida lets up just a little bit Saturday it will be enough for Arkansas to sneak in and get the cover against this ridiculously huge spread. Arkansas is scoring 37.4 points/game and putting up 452 yards of total offense/game. They have already faced Alabama, so they won't be phased by a team the caliber of Florida. Arkansas is battle-tested and they are playing their best ball of the season right now which gives them a fighting chance. The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Take Arkansas and the points.

4* Louisville +13.5

Connecticut is a team that should not be favored by double-digits against almost any Division-1 team. The Huskies win their games by playing sound defense and running the football, which isn't a formula for blowouts. UConn has played 5 games this season, and 4 of the Huskies' games have been decided by 8 points or less. The lone exception was a 52-10 home win over Rhode Island as a 34.5-point favorite. Louisville is coming off a huge win over a very good Southern Miss team, giving them confidence heading into Saturday's match-up with UConn. The previous week the Cardinals had Pittsburgh down at halftime before letting the Panthers off the hook. No matter how you put it, UConn is not 13 points better than Louisville. The last two meetings in this series were decided by 5 and 4 points, respectively with the Huskies winning both times. That places the revenge factor with Louisville in the upcoming 2009 meeting. The Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 October games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Louisville and the points.

The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections

CONSENSUS NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

Temple -10

Pointwise Phone Service

4* Ohio St, Ucla

3* Bama, Texas Tech, Southern Cal, Vandy, Wisconsin

2* Kentucky, Troy, Fresno St, Iowa St, Byu

David Banks

Ohio St.
Wisconson
Penn St
Florida
V Tech
Auburn
S Carolina
Mizzu

NY Yankee's
Phil Phillies

Kyle Bales

15* Texas -3

10* Notre Dame +10

5* South Carolina +18

igz1sports

3* BYU -17

Big Time

OKLAHOMA +3

Steve Duemig

25 Dimes Vanderbilt
10 Dimes W.Michigan
5 Dimes Fla. Atlantic

DOUBLE DRAGON

GOM OKLAHOMA SOONERS +3

34paytonplace

10 unit- Miss st. -4

Well we think this is a mismatch as miss st. is the #10 rushing offense in the country and middle Tenn ranks #99 on defense in stopping the run........We will take the bulldogs from the sec on the road laying a small number!!!!!

8 unit- Ohio st. -13.5

The buckeyes strong defense should stop the boilermakers rushing attack forcing them to throw and they do not do that very well also Purdue as you saw last week make a lot of mistakes and look for ohio st to pull away to and easy cover!!!!

8 unit- UL-Lafayette -7

There only two losses were against ranked opponents and w.ky is ranked last in almost every offensive category and it's not much better on defense.......

8 unit- Wake forest +7.5

The deacons have the better qb in riley skinner who has a completion pct of 69% on the season while Clemson qb parker is completing 49% and the tigers have been lousy running the ball and must relyon there defense.......

5 unit- BYU -17.5

We have a very skilled offense against a pitfull one and the aztecs cannot run the football and there qb is mediocre at best expect the cougars to cruise to a win easily..........

5 unit- Illinois -3

The illinii have played the tougher schedule #11 to #63 by the hoosiers and we backed the hoosiers last week and they were horrible.......

5 unit- New Mexico st. +20.5

Both teams want to run the ball and nither should have any trouble as the aggies are ranked #55 running and #114 in stopping the run and la tech is #57 and #101 in stopping the run........I will take the boat load of points.......

5 unit- Fresno st. -19.5

The bulldogs 3 losses to wisc,boise,cincy and now they get to feed off the bottom of the conference as san jose is #118 on offense and #101 on defense and the bulldogs will run it down there throats