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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, October 17,2009

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Dave Malinsky

5* Top of the Ticket - Wake Forest

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 5:53 am
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Vernon Croy

Saturday Night NCAA Football Smash

3* Take Stanford

This weekend features a good Pac-10 matchup between Stanford and Arizona. While it should be a close game, statistical analysis tells us that the Stanford Cardinal will emerge victorious on the day. What tells us this exactly? Let's look at the details. The line for this weekends game is Arizona -5. Arizona is bad playing as the favorite and Stanford is good playing as the underdog. Over the last three years, the Wildcats are 1-4 in games that they were 3.5-10 point favorites. They are also 0-1 this season. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinal is 3-2 over the last three years when coming in as an underdog of 3.5-10 points. This game should be no different. The Cardinal is 3-1 against conference opponents this year and this is a conference matchup. Another interesting fact is that Stanford is better at playing on a grass field as they will be this weekend. The Cardinal is 3-1 on the season on a grass field. At the same time the Wildcats are 0-2 on the season. Even though it might seem irrelevant, it is a trend that can not be overlooked completely. Another interesting trend dates back all the way to 1992. Stanford is 5-1 against the spread versus Arizona. That tells us that they have pretty much dominated against the spread against the Wildcats over the last several years. In the last three years, the Cardinal is 1-0 versus the Wildcats. Expect history to repeat itself on Saturday. This season, the Arizona Wildcats are 1-3 in every lined game that they have played in. It sounds as if they do not take pressure and the spotlight very well. Their wins have come against some weak teams, while they lost two games to stronger teams. They lost to Iowa and Washington. Therefore, they are yet to beat a good team on the season. When the final whistle blows this weekend, expect the Stanford Cardinal to come out on top so grab the points.

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 6:34 am
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WAYNE ROOT

Upset Club

6* Kansas State (+5½) over Texas A&m

7* UCF (+14) over Miami Florida

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 7:58 am
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ROCKETMAN

Florida Atlantic @ North Texas
Play: 5* Florida Atlantic +1

North Texas is allowing 33.8 points per game overall and 34 points per game at home this year. Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS overall vs North Texas since 1992. Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on turf. Mean Green are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Mean Green are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Mean Green are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Mean Green are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games on turf. Mean Green are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Mean Green are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. We'll play Florida Atlantic for 5 units tonight!

Minnesota @ Penn State
Play: 5* Minnesota +17.5

Minnesota is 2-0 SU on the road this year scoring 29 points per game. Their losses have come to California by 14 points and Wisconsin by 3 points. California is a better team than Penn State in my opinion. Penn State suffered their only loss this year at home to Iowa a few weeks ago. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS at Penn State since 1992. Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Golden Gophers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. Golden Gophers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Golden Gophers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Golden Gophers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win. Golden Gophers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Nittany Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Nittany Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. We'll play Minnesota for 5 units today!

Army @ Temple
Play: 3* Temple -10

Temple is 11-3 ATS when playing on grass last 3 years. Temple has won 3 games in a row. Black Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Black Knights are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Black Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Black Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Black Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Black Knights are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Owls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Owls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. INDEP. Owls are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in October. Owls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Owls are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Owls are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. Owls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. We'll play Temple for 3 units today!

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 8:01 am
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The Experts Guaranteed Selections

PAC 10 CONFERENCE BLOWOUT BOMB OF THE YEAR

UCLA +3.5

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 8:10 am
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Payne Sports

10 Units Oklahoma +3.5

If Bradford never gets hurt and they are both undefeated where do we see this line honestly? I would say Oklahoma by 3 so we are getting 6.5 points free because public perception on Oklahoma not being that good now. Who really has the right to say they are not that good? This team knows that their season relies on this game and they are UP for the challenge. Oklahoma relies on their run game which will open up the pass for Bradford. They have outrushed all 5 opponents and I look for a 6th against a texas team that hasnt faced any kind of run team yet this season except Colorado. The level of competition favors the Sooners already playing Miami, BYU, Tulsa, and a Baylor team that is not half bad.Texas only quality win is Texas Tech in which a game where they struggled. Oklahoma defense has only allowed an average on 256 yards a game against the teams they have played only allowing 8 ppg. That is total domination and the Big 12 is not used to an SEC caliber defense. The Sooners are 11-2 ats after allowing less than 275 total yards and 8-1 ats after allowing less than 100 yards rushing. I truly believe this game is a mismatch from start to finish and OU walks away convincingly and close out the season with a Big 12 Title.

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 8:11 am
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DOC'S SPORTS

5 Unit Play. Take Ohio State over Purdue Top Big 10 Play.

What a gritty club this Boiler team has been thus far. They took Notre Dame, Oregon, and Northwestern to the wire and no question Danny Hope has done a good job with very little talent. Their loss against Northwestern really tells the story, leading 21-0 at half, only to lose, 27-21. They were leading by 10 points last week at Minnesota and simply fell apart, losing 35-20. Does this club have any gas left in the tank? My call is NO!

Now they face an Ohio State club that has the best defense in the conference. This defense will shut them down for sixty minutes and will likely score points of there own. Granted the Buckeyes offense is average, but after some poor performances look for Coach Tressel to open up the playbook against a weak defense. I never like to lay this many points on the road; however, I believe the Boilers are exhausted. This is not the type of situation one likes to be in with very little talent. This one is all Buckeyes. Ohio State 31, Purdue 7.

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 8:12 am
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Jimmy Boyd

3* High Noon SMASH on Clemson -7

Off back-to-back losses, including a bad loss at Maryland, and a bye week, the Tigers will be fresh, well prepared, and hungry to get back in the win column at home Saturday. Plus, we can throw the revenge factor into the mix here as well. Wake defeated Clemson 12-7 last season. But the last time the Demon Deacons visited Clemson, they were crushed 44-10. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and that's who I'm rolling with here.

5* NCAAF Blowout of the Month on Georgia -7.5

Off back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing loss at Tennessee, expect to see a proud Bulldogs side explode to a blowout win over an inferior Vandy side. Georgia is 11-1 ATS off 2 straight losses against conference rivals since 1992, winning by an average score of 36.5 to 21.0 in these spots. The Bulldogs are also 8-0 at Vandy dating back to 1992, winning by an average score of 29-12. Lay the points.

4* Major Pac-10 Punisher on Cal -3

Off back-to-back blowout losses, a Cal team that had high hopes of a Pac-10 title takes out its frustrations on UCLA Saturday afternoon. Cal won 41-20 at home last season and the Bruins have not narrowed the gap enough to take the Bears down to the wire. The Golden Bears are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite, and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points (listed at 3.5 at some books). Lay the number.

3* SMASH (ESPN) on Auburn -13

After getting blown out at Arkansas, expect the Tigers to bounce back strong, running up the score with their explosive offense against a Kentucky defense allowing 26.8 ppg. Auburn has won 15 in a row against Kentucky and I expect its domination to continue. Here's the key: Kentucky is 2-11 ATS versus excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry since 1992, losing these games by an average score of 17.7 to 39.7. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Florida Atlantic pk

FAU is ranked considerably higher in my power rankings and I just can't see it falling to 0-5 here. FAU has won 5 straight in this series and returns 8 offensive starters from a team that pounded North Texas 46-13 last season. FAU is 12-4 ATS in road games against conference opponents under the legendary coach Schnellenberger. Take FAU to win.

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 8:14 am
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Joyce Sterling

10* TCU -22

Louisville +13

Middle Tenn St +4

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 8:15 am
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Frank Patron

Nebraska

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 8:18 am
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ATS

Baseball Lock Club

3 units NY Yankees

Football Financial Club

5 units Tulane
4 units Bowling Green
4 units Colorado St.

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 8:37 am
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Ben Burns

Big 12 Main Event - Oklahoma
Massacre - Louisville
Big 10 Total Of The Month - Indiana Over 53
Revenge GOY - Arizona

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 8:48 am
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Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections

BIG 10 CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

Michigan St -14

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 8:49 am
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The Duke's Sports

Wake Forest (+7') for 3 Units

WF has covered 7 of the last 9 at Clemson and we'll stay on them here. Clemson is coming off 2 straight losses and had extra rest, but not sure it will work to their advantage. The Tigers' run game is mediocre and QB Kyle Parker is struggling (48.7% completions). On the other hand, WF can move the football with Riley Skinner engineering drives; therefore, getting over a TD gives us good value with the Demon Deacons, especially since the dog is 5-1 ATS in this series.

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 8:51 am
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Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play Wake Forest (+7) over Clemson

Wake Forest has won 13 of the last 15 games coming off an OVER the total and they have also won 13 of the last 17 games coming off a home game. Wake Forest has won 7 of the last 9 games when playing in the month of October and they are averaging over 32 points a game on offense over the last 3 games.

100* Play Arkansas (+24.5) over Florida

Arkansas has won 4 of the last 5 games coming off a win by 21 points or more ad they have also covered the spread in 7 of the last 9 games when playing in the month of October. Arkansas has covered the spread in 11 of the last 17 games coming off a conference game and they are averaging over 37 points a game on offense this season.

100* Play Central Florida (+14) over Miami

Central Florida has covered the spread in 4 consecutive games this season and they have also covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points. Miami has lost 8 of the last 10 games against the spread after failing to cover the spread in two of the last three games and they are allowing an average of over 32 points a game on defense in road games this season.

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 9:06 am
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