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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, October 17,2009

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Underdog

Kansas St

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 11:21 am
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The Boss

500% Moutain West Conference UNTOUCHABLE PLAY OF THE YEAR BYU
300% Bookie Buster Blowout Parlay BYU, HOUSTON, UTAH
200% Dog Pound Oklahoma
100% Silent Assassins Air Force, Mississippi, Navy

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 11:38 am
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AL Demarco

10 Dime - Auburn

Auburn looks to rebound after a pathetic performance in a 44-23 loss at Arkansas last Saturday that dropped the Tigers from the ranks of the unbeaten. Their defense, not the greatest to begin with, was shredded for 495 yards by the Razorbacks in a game that was even more one-sided than the final score indicated. But the SEC schedule-makers have given Auburn a favorable opponent to rebound against as injury-riddled Kentucky comes to town.

The Wildcats are coming off a heart-breaking -- and costly -- loss to South Carolina, 28-26, a game in which starting quarterback Mike Hartline suffered a knee injury. That means either untested junior Will Fidler, who completed 2-of-8 passes against the Gamecocks for 16 yards (5-for-13 on the season), or true freshman Morgan Newton, whom Kentucky planned to redshirt, will get the starting nod against Auburn.

Auburn's defense leaves much to be desired, but Kentucky does not have the talent to exploit those flaws. The same cannot be said about the Wildcat D, a unit that is the SEC's worst against the run, allowing 178 yards per game, including 362 to Florida and 204 to Alabama. The 'Cats will be hard-pressed to stop the Tiger backfield duo of Ben Tate (724 yards, 6.1 ypc) and Onterio McCalebb (439 yards, 6.0 ypc).

The Tigers can also attack through the air as QB Chris Todd is averaging 227 yards per game with 12 TDs thanks to excellent protection that's resulted in him being sacked just five times on the season. Todd will face a banged-up Kentucky secondary missing All-America cornerback Trevard Lindley.

Although this is the first meeting between these two since 2005, this has been a one-sided series dominated by Auburn as the Tigers have won the last 15 match-ups straight-up, a streak that dates back to 1966. The Tigers have also covered five of the last six clashes.

Auburn is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home this season with the only pointspread setback coming in a 54-30 rout of Ball State when the Tigers were laying 30' points in non-conference tilt played one week after a big second-half rally secured a 41-30 win and cover as a 7-point home chalk against West Virginia.

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 12:09 pm
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Lenny Del Genio

Big 12 GOY - Colorado + 10

20* Mountain West GOM - Wyoming + 12.5

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 12:10 pm
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WILDCAT

10* SO CAROLINA
7* Mississippi Over
5* Indiana
5* Utah State

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 12:19 pm
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Wunderdog

San Jose Sharks @ New York Islanders
5 units New York Islanders +1.5

It is pretty clear San Jose is still struggling on the road as they enter here at just 1-3 and have now dropped five of their last six going back to last year. That puts a lot of pressure on the puckline, especially since they have not walked off the ice here in the last two meetings with a win. Three of the five Islanders’ games required extended play. With the Sharks not beating anyone on the road, the puckline looks good here for the Islanders and that's my call

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 12:43 pm
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John Ryan

Boston Bruins @ Phoenix Coyotes
Pick: Phoenix Coyotes -110

Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Phoenix as they host Boston set to start at 9:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 148-153, but has made a profit of 59.6 units since 1996. Play against a favorite against the money line after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals and is a well rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days. The average play has been a dog of +143. Phoenix is a solid 16-7 against the money line (+9.7 Units) in home games against horrible power play killing teams where opponents score on >19% of chances over the last 2 seasons. Take Phoenix

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 12:44 pm
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Canadian Prophet

STRONG PICK 1*: Dallas/Chicago OVER 5.5

Dallas has been scoring on the road (4 avg), but giving up as many. Chicago has been scoring at home (4.7 avg) and giving up alot too. Now Turco played last night and Dallas got no bounces. So I see some opportunity here to take advantage of a o/u line that should be 6. A few stats-- The Over is 7-0 in Blackhawks last 7 home games, the head to head Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and the Over is 4-0 in Stars last 4 road games.

STRONG PICK 1*: Boston Bruins +105

I bet all of you reading this expected the Bruins to come out top 3 starting this season, especially with that homestand... right? Well it didn't happen. If the team is beginning to gel, we will see the evidence of that tonight in Phoenix. The Yotes are a much better team this year, but they seem to let up on these Saturday night home games (PHOENIX is 9-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons). PHOENIX is also 2-12 ATS (+16.2 Units) after a 2 game unbeaten streak over the last 2 seasons. I saw a wave coming yesterday and I caught it (B's vs Dallas). I intend to stay on for the ride

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 12:45 pm
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TONY WRIGHT

10* NC State

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 12:46 pm
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Matt Fargo

5* WAC Game of the Year

Utah State + 8.5

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 12:56 pm
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Matt Fargo

4 Units Houston: -17

4 Units Georgia Tech: +3

4 Units Indiana: +2

4 Units Central Florida: +14.5

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 12:58 pm
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Payne Sports

8 Units Western Michigan +7

8 Units USC -10

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 1:04 pm
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Scott Rickenbach

10* GAME OF THE MONTH *AMAZING 18-5 RUN*

10* (TOP PLAY) Virginia Tech Hokies (-) @ Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech is ranked and has a 5-1 record just like the Hokies entering this match-up. Also, thanks to a potent triple-option offense under head coach Paul Johnson, there is some talk about the Yellow Jackets offense being “unstoppable”. To a man we will tell you that if there is one defense capable of slowing down this offensive attack it is Virginia Tech’s tough defense. We will also tell you that the Yellow Jackets as a team are certainly anything but “unstoppable”. As impressive as their offense has been, Georgia Tech’s defense has been extremely disappointing and will end up being their downfall this season. Even though the Yellow Jackets are 3-1 in ACC action this season their three wins have come against teams that are a combined 1-7 in conference action this year. Also, they blew a 24-0 lead against Clemson in that game and barely hung on for the non-covering win against the Tigers. In their games against Miami and North Carolina they averaged just 20.5 points per game. Then, even though they won their next two games they gave up a total of 75 points. Allowing Florida State to gain 539 yards against you is not good news. The Seminoles are having an awful season and had been held to 21 points or less in three of their four prior games. The only game the Noles had previously “broken out” during the four game slide was a big performance at Brigham Young fueled by Cougars mistakes. The key point here: we’re just not “sold” on the overall strength of this Yellow Jackets team. They can’t get opposing offenses off the field so they have to rely on their offense to win games and that’s just not likely to happen against a powerful Virginia Tech defense.

The Hokies know how to at least “slow down” the Yellow Jackets option. With all the talent they tend to have on hand defensively each season they have allowed between 11 and 16.7 points per game each of the last five seasons. They’ve beat Georgia Tech in four of those five seasons and coach Johnson was here with his potent option attack last season. The Hokies forced turnovers and got the key stops when needed and they can certainly do the same this time around. What should make this one more comfortable than last season’s three point win for the Hokies is that their offense has been very impressive. RB Ryan Williams is leading the ACC in rushing. QB Tyrod Taylor is very dangerous with his scrambling ability as that also buys time for receivers to get open. The Hokies have scored at least 31 points in four of the last five weeks and keep in mind they are very battle-tested on the season as they’ve had to battle Alabama, Nebraska, and Miami already this season. They waxed Miami by a 24 point margin and that’s the same Canes team that hammered the Yellow Jackets by a 16 point margin. With the speed, talent, and experience of the Hokies defense, they can get their stops against this Jackets offense. The reverse is not true. The Yellow Jackets secondary has been exposed all season long. Also, teams have been able to run in between the tackles against the Jackets and we look for Williams and Company to have some big success doing just that in this game. The Yellow Jackets are susceptible to turnovers. That is typical of most option attacks. The key here is that the Hokies are a ball-hawking defense that feasts on opponents mistakes. They also have exceptional special teams units and of course “Beamer Ball” is predicated on opportunistic defense and fantastic special teams play.

The Hokies have large edges in special teams, defense and their overall coaching staff with head coach Frank Beamer, offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring, and defensive coordinator Bud Foster having all been here for many years. The Hokies have their bye week on deck and the Yellow Jackets are breathing down their neck in the ACC Coastal Division standings. In other words, there is no way the Hokies come out flat or unfocused here. That spells trouble for the Jackets as they get one of the top teams in the country coming in fully focused and looking to make a statement on the road. The Hokies came into this season covering 11 of their last 14 games as a road favorite. We’ll gladly lay the short number here with the superior team against a Yellow Jackets team that is over-rated in our opinion. It’s hard to truly be considered a ‘top 25 team’ with the type of defense that the Jackets have been playing. They will be exposed here. Play Virginia Tech minus the short number as a 10* Top Play selection on Saturday.

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 1:43 pm
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Mean Green Profit Machine

2% SJ Sharks

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 2:09 pm
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Good evening everyone. I apologize for not posting lately. Work has been kicking my ass during this quarter end. I file the 10Q and 10K and we are short a person....you know the story. This economy and recession is a real bitch. I was unemployed last year for 3 months. There are others who can't land a job and I feel bad for them and their families. It is a sad state right now.

Joe Wiz owes me a few free plays. I couldn't buy his PAYW but I called the number that was supplied to me and explained to his rep that I have been busy. The rep gave me UNLV. The line is 14.5 so we can catch Utah +14.5

Have a nice night.

 
Posted : October 17, 2009 7:18 pm
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