Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, October 2,2010

Dr. Bob

Texas (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars at less than +3.
Maryland (-7 1/2) 2-Stars at -9 or less, 3-Stars at -7.
Temple (-5) 2-Stars at -6 1/2 or less, 3-Stars at -4.
Baylor (-9) 2-Stars at -10 or less, 3-Stars at -7.
Arizona State (+3 1/2) 2-Stars as an underdog.
Alabama (-7 1/2) 2-Stars at -9 or less, 3-Stars at -7.
Hawaii (-8) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -11.

Opinions

Central Michigan (-17 1/2) Strong Opinion at -19 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -17.
North Carolina (-13) Strong Opinion at -14 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -11.
Tulane-Rutgers UNDER (43) Strong Opinion Under 41 or higher.
Georgia Tech (-10) Strong Opinion at -10 or less.
Idaho (-3) Strong Opinion at -3 or less.
USC (-10) Strong Opinion at -11 or less.
South Florida (-21) Strong Opinion at -21 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -20 or less.

Teddy Covers

Big Ticket - Stanford

Indiana
Army
Arizona St
Virginia
Maryland Over

Ben Burns

8* Duke +7

This line has climbed from its opener. I believe that provides us with plenty of value on the visitors. One of the reasons that the Terrapins are laying more than a touchdown is because they boast a 3-1 record. However, I believe that those three wins need to be "taken with a grain of salt." The Terps' last victory came at home, against a winless and relatively weak Florida International squad. Sure, Maryland ended up winning by 14. However, a closer look reveals that the game was tied late in the third quarter and that FIU actually had a commanding 28-15 edge in first downs, for the game. Overall, the Golden Panthers outgained the Terps by a 472-419 margin. Prior to that, Maryland lost by double-digits at West Virginia - no real shame in that. (I played against the Terps in that one.) Before that, their two wins came against 1-AA Morgan State and against Navy. Beating Navy (17-14) was somewhat impressive. However, the Midshipmen aren't as strong this season and the Terps were outgained in that one by a whopping 485-272 margin. In other words, one could argue that the Terps are rather fortunate to be 3-1. In three games against 1-A opponents, they've given up 485, 469 and 482 yards, getting victimized both through the air and on the ground. Admittedly, the Blue Devils have been less impressive. They're 1-3 and the lone win came vs. 1-AA Elon. While the Duke defense has definitely struggled, the offense has shown an ability to move the ball and score points. The Blue Devils are averaging better than 30 points per game and more than 425 yards per game. The Blue Devils lone road game, at Wake Forest, came down to the Wire. Duke led much of the way, eventually losing by six. Counting that one as an ATS loss (it landed right near the number and could have been considered a push) the Blue Devils are still a respectable 7-5 ATS on the road the past 2+ seasons, including 3-2 ATS as road underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Note that they were a solid 4-2-1 ATS in October, during that stretch. Even counting last week's somewhat fortunate cover, the Terps are still just 3-5 ATS as favorites, the past 2+ seasons. The Blue Devils won last year's meeting by a score of 17-13. They outgained the Terps by a 394-249 margin. I expect the Blue Devils to give them all they can handle again here.

8* Louisiana Tech +7

The majority of the betting public is likely going to favor Hawaii in this one. After all, the Warriors are at home and are coming off a 66-7 victory. LA Tech, on the other hand, is off three straight losses and is playing on the road. Those results will have most believing that Hawaii is the far superior team in this matchup. That perception has allowed us to be able to get more than a touchdown with the visiting Bulldogs. I feel that provides excellent value. Yes, Hawaii won huge last week. However, that was against "Charleston Southern" and the Warriors were laying -32 points. The "Buccaneers" had previously faced teams like Mars Hill and North Greenville (they also lost by double-digits to Wofford) and were playing their first road game. So, the Warriors blowout needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Hawaii's other games resulted in double-digit losses vs. USC and at Colorado and a very close 3-point win over Army. As usual, the Warriors passing attack appears to be in good shape. They don't have a running game though, and having a one-dimensional attack may prove to be less effective in conference play. LA Tech's 3-game losing streak isn't quite as bad as it seems, as the Bulldogs were underdogs in all three games. Last week, the Bulldogs were facing a solid Southern Miss. team. They lost - but only by one point. The previous losses came vs. Navy and at Texas A@M, also both solid programs. Now, they begin conference play and are excited about getting a "fresh start." While they have a new coach, this was expected to be an improved LA Tech team this season. They've got a few games against decent opponents to get used to the new spread offense (Coach Sykes who has previously had jobs at Arizona and Texas Tech is considered a "spread expert") and a porous Hawaii defense (108 points allowed in 3 games vs. 1-A teams) figures to "just the ticket" to have a breakout game against. As for the defense, the Bulldogs retained their defensive coordinator (Tommy Spangler has seen the Bulldog defense improve from a yards standpoint in three straight seasons) and the 13 points allowed last week shows that they're capable of playing well on that side of the ball. Even with a cover last week, I really feel that this LA Tech is still flying under the radar. Note that the Bulldogs were arguably stronger than last season's 4-8 record indicated as they actually outgained WAC opponents by an average of 27.9 yards per game. While the Warriors were admittedly distracted by a "tsunami," note that the Bulldogs beat them convincingly last season, delivering a 27-6 beatdown. The previous season, at Hawaii, the Bulldogs lost by 10. In 2007, I had my "WAC Game of the Year" on LA Tech as a 4-touchdown underdog. The Bulldogs took Hawaii to overtime and lost by only one point. In other words, they've played the Warriors pretty tough the past few seasons. While both teams are 8-8 SU in conference play the past two seasons, the Bulldogs were 10-5-1 ATS while the Warriors were 8-7-1 ATS. Note that the Bulldogs are 6-1-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range and 6-0-1 ATS the last seven times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. I expect them to improve on those stats here.

8* UNLV +17

The Wolfpack check in at 4-0, all four wins coming by double-digits. I had them in their big win over California, so I'm well aware of how good they are. That said, I feel that they're lines are starting to become inflated and that this will prove to be a tough spot for them to be laying such a big number. The Wolfpack followed up their big win over California by traveling to BYU and knocking off the Cougars by double-digits. Off those two impressive victories, the players could easily be starting to pat themselves on the back a bit here. True, the Wolfpack have dominated the Rebels in recent seasons. Consider that UNLV was a -3.5 point favorite the last time that these teams met here though, in the fall of 2008. Now, we've got a shift of greater than three touchdowns. Granted, Nevada has gotten stronger. However, that's a rather massive swing, particularly given that UNLV is also arguably stronger. The Rebels lost their first game by 20 points - that was vs. Wisconsin though - a team with a higher ranking than Nevada. They also lost their next two games. However, they were both on the road. Last time out, they returned home and absolutely dismantled New Mexico, winning by a score of 45-10. Senior quarterback Omar Clayton threw three touchdown passes while the Rebels also rushed for a season-high 185 yards. Now, playing their second straight home game, the Rebels should have gained some much needed confidence. Keep in mind that this team, which has a veteran QB and defense, returned 15 starters. Including the narrow cover vs. Wisconsin in Week 1, the Rebels are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +17.5 to +21 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here.

10* Oregon -7

I really respect the Cardinal. They're a strong well-coached team with a great QB. They've also gotten off to an excellent start to the season. I even won with them when they upset the Ducks last season. That was a terrific scheduling spot for the Cardinal though. For starters, they were under-valued, as many still didn't realize how good they were. Indeed, despite playing at home, they were getting +6.5 or +7 points. Not only were the Cardinal playing at home, they were also coming off a bye. Additionally, they were catching Oregon off an upset win over USC. Indeed, as I said, it was a terrific "setup" for Stanford. This year figures to be much different. We know how good Oregon was last season. The 2010 version could well be better. Last year's team returned only nine starters. This year's team returned a whopping 17. In going 4-0, the Ducks have destroyed their opponents by an average score of 57.7 to 11. That includes road games at venues like Arizona State and Tennessee. Last year, the Ducks may have overlooked Stanford. Having lost that game, they surely won't make the same mistake here. Indeed, both teams know that this game ranks among the most important games of the year. The Cardinal are 1-2 SU/ATS the last three times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. During the same stretch, the Ducks are 2-0 SU/ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Cardinal are 3-4 SU/ATS in October the past few seasons. The Ducks are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in October. Last year, as mentioned, Stanford had the advantage of playing at home and coming off a bye. No such luck this season. Not only are the Cardinal on the road - but they also played on the road last week, a nationally televised affair at Notre Dame. Give them credit for playing very well in that game. However, the Cardinal have not performed well when playing the second of back to back road games. Stanford played back to back road games twice in 2006. After playing at UCLA, they proceeded to lose by 21 vs. Notre Dame. Also, after playing at Oregon, the Cardinal lost outright (as -9.5 point favorites) to San Jose State. In 2007, the Cardinal played b2b road games just once. After winning at Arizona in the first leg of the "road trip," they lost by 17 at Oregon State when playing their second straight away from home. In 2008, the Cardinal were 0-2 SU/ATS when playing the second of back to back road games, losing by 17 and 7 points. True, the Cardinal are better now than they were then. Stanford was pretty good last season too though - and the Cardinal were still 0-2 when playing the second of back to back road games. They lost at Wake Forest and also at Arizona. Lets see, that 0-7 SU the last seven times that the Cardinal played the second of b2b road games. While they lost at Stanford last season, the Ducks are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the last four times that they hosted the Cardinal. They won all four games by a minimum of a touchdown and by an average of 26.75 points. Playing with 'revenge' and with much on the line, I expect another convincing win and cover.

Matt Fargo

10* Illinois Fighting Illini +18.5
10* Navy Midshipmen +10
9* Mississippi Rebels -2.5
9* Indiana Hoosiers +10.5
8* Clemson Tigers +4

Wunderdog

5 Units Virginia +7

The jury is still out on this Florida State team. They beat BYU with a solid effort, but the Cougars are way down this season. FSU's wins over Wake Forest and Samford don't tell us anything, and their loss to Oklahoma was by 30. So, it's unclear how good this team is. The Cavaliers played USC to a field goal in a game here early, outgaining the Trojans in the process. So I expect another tough fight from there here, again at home. These teams stack-up even on both offense and defense. The Cavs' defense is ranked No. 19, and the Noles sit at No. 21. On offense, Florida State is ranked 30th while Virginia is ranked 33rd. Granted, the Seminoles have had a more difficult schedule, but the Cavs have shown they are no pushover. Christin Ponder in his fifth year in the program and is not off to a great start. His yards per pass are down 1.5 yards and his INT's, which were limited to seven a year ago, is at three already. Then Seminoles have not been a good road team, especially posted in the favorite’s role from 3.5-10 points, covering just one of their last 11. Then Cavs have been good following a game where they allowed less than 50 yards rushing at 6-1 ATS. The Noles are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine after a a conference win. They are also just 2-6 straight-up the past three seasons when facing a defense that allows 17 or fewer points per game (Virginia has allowed just 12.3 per contest). This one has live dog written all over it, so I'll back Virginia.

Chris Jordan

Silver State Game of the Decade

1000* Nevada Wolfpack

Rocky Sheridan

7* Georgia -4
5* Penn St/Iowa Over 41
5* Clemson +3.5
5* Virginia +7

ASA

5* NOTRE DAME

NC STATE
TEXAS
IOWA

Best Picks

Texas +4

Navy +10

Oregon -6.5

Rocketman

5* Rutgers -17

5* North Carolina -14

4* Washington State +2

3* Rice +12.5

3* NY Mets -115

Larry Ness

Club 80 - Navy

The Boss

500% "Untouchable Play" Central Michigan
300% "Bookie Buster Parlay" Baylor, Central Michigan, Texas Tech
200% "Dog Pound" Florida
100% "Silent Assassins" Hawaii, Michigan, Tulsa

PPP

5% Michigan
4% Navy
4% Iowa
3% Notre Dame
3% Oklahoma
4% Northwestern
3% Va Tech
5% Georgia
4% Florida St.
3% Hawaii

Anthony Redd

75 Dime Washington
50 Dime Stanford
15 Dime Buffalo
15 Dime Wyoming
15 Dime SMU