BIG AL
Rivalry Game of the Month
Texas +4
Last week, Mack Brown's men inexplicably lost at home to UCLA, though perhaps they were caught looking ahead to this game -- the annual Red River Rivalry game -- vs. the Sooners. And Texas has owned this series of late, going 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS the past five seasons. Also, off its loss to UCLA, the Longhorns now fall into an awesome 90-29 ATS system of mine that plays on certain underdogs of +3 or more points, in conference games, off an upset loss in which they were favored by -7 or more points. For all of the media attention on Texas for its 34-12 loss last week (granted, it was the worst home defeat under coach Brown), the Sooners really haven't been much more impressive this year. After all, Oklahoma was favored by 35 vs. Utah St, yet won by just seven. Then, in their 3rd game, the Sooners barely defeated the Air Force, winning 27-24 as a 17-point favorite. Finally, last week, Oklahoma nipped Cincinnati 31-29, as a 14-point chalk. Thus, each of Texas and Oklahoma has had just one impressive game thus far: The Longhorns went into Lubbock and defeated Texas Tech 24-14, while the Sooners handled Florida State 47-17 at home in Norman. Last week, the 'Horns turned the ball over five times (to UCLA's two), but Texas is an impressive 29-13 ATS since 1992 off a game in which it had two more turnovers than its foe. Grab the points with the Longhorns. Rivalry Game of the Month on Texas.
Bobby Maxwell
600-Unit College Pac-10 Book Buster - OREGON DUCKS
I’m not quite sure anybody can keep up with Oregon right now. The Ducks play a fast-paced style of offense and they are leading the football subdivision with 57.8 points a game and they’re tied for third in rushing yards and total yards per game. And don’t forget, the Ducks can play some defense too, sitting as the No. 3 defense in the nation allowing just 11 points per game.
When they get going, the offense just starts steamrolling people. The Ducks turned things around in a hurry on Friday with a major boost from the committees. The Ducks trailed 24-14 in the fourth quarter at Arizona State last weekend and rallied back for a 42-31 victory.
The key that makes the Oregon offense move is the play of RB LaMichael James, who is second in the country with 475 rushing yards. He ended up running for 125 yards and a TD against the Cardinal last season and he caught four passes for 89 yards. QB Darron Thomas is grateful for all of James’ hard work as he’s thrown for 822 yards, 10 TDs and 3 INTs.
Over on the other side is Stanford QB Andrew Luck who is up to 912 yards and 11 TD passes. He has looked very good this season against mostly bad opposition. The Ducks haven’t been held to less than 42 points in any game this season and at home in a big one against Stanford, they won’t be held tonight either.
Oregon had a seven-game streak in this series snapped last year, but they have won big the last three games at home against Stanford, and will blow out the Cardinals in this one.
The Ducks have cashed in 16 of their last 21 October games, and they are 5-2 ATS as a home favorite. Oregon has taken six of the last eight against the Cardinals and I’m looking for the Ducks to come together and help me at home with a big winner over Stanford.
100-Unit College Smart Play - GEORGIA BULLDOGS
This is one of those cases that happen in college football where you have to play the average SEC team to beat any other average team from any other conference. The SEC is just so much ahead of the other conferences, that you’ll see the average squad there destroy an average squad from the Big 12 tonight.
Georgia is just 1-3 on the season, but with losses on the road to SEC foes South Carolina and Mississippi State and a tough home loss to Arkansas. All of that without their superstar WR A.J. Green. Well, the suspension is over and Green will be in the lineup tonight in Colorado. He’s going to see the ball a lot and he’s going to make big plays. It’s what he does.
The average team from the Big 12 is Colorado who come in to this one 2-1, but the wins are over lousy squads Colorado State and Hawaii. In their one test that could have showed something, the Buffs went to Cal and got crushed 52-7 as 10 ½-point underdogs.
All-SEC receiver Green will make life easier on the TEs in the Georgia lineup as coverages are rolled to his side of the field. Look for good things down the middle from Aron White and Orson Charles tonight. QB Aaron Murray has already thrown for 879 yards, 5 TDs and just 2 INTs, and getting his primary target back is only going to improve those numbers.
Defensively, the Bulldogs have been very good against the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry. Colorado needs offense from the running game because QB Tyler Hansen has been a mystery this season with his 558 yards, four TDs and four INTs.
Georgia comes into this one on ATS surges of 3-1-1 as a road favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points, plus they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference tilts. Colorado is on some negative ATS trends, including 1-4 against losing teams, 3-8 after a straight-up win and 2-8 as an underdog of 3 ½ to 10 points.
The Bulldogs have faced the stiffer competition and that will be clearly evident in this one. Lay the chalk and play the road team Bulldogs. Go with Georgia to win this one.
DOUBLE DRAGON
TOP
STANFORD +7
OKLAHOMA-3
STRONG
NAVY +10
WASHINGTON +10
NC STATE +4
ALABAMA -9
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
Texas Tech
Hawaii
Baylor
Southern Cal
North Carolina St.
Keith Martin Sports
Oregon -7
Hawaii -8
Iowa -7
Coach Ron Meyer
College Upset of the Year
20* NC State +3½
Point Train
6-Unit Underdog Special - Navy (+10) over Air Force
Navy has won seven straight games over Air Force and are extremely undervalued as 10 point underdogs here. Other than an 11-point victory by Navy in 2007, every matchup has been decided by a touchdown or less. Both teams run a similar run-oriented offense and both are extremely good at it. Air Force averages 394 rushing yards per game (1st in nation) while Navy averages 272 (9th). Last year, Air Force ran for just 183 yards (3.5 YPC) and Navy ran for 173 (3.1). These two teams are extremely familiar with each other and there is no way that Air Force wins by double digits tonight.
Navy is 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog of 10 points or more and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. MWC. The Midshipmen are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Air Force. There are three games on the schedule each year that Navy is always well-prepared for: Army, Notre Dame, and Air Force. This rivalry is too big for one team to win in blowout fashion. Go with Navy.
igz1 sports
3* Toledo -4.5
Brandon Lang
Oregon State -3.5
David Banks
Clemson +3.5
Ohio State -16.5
Auburn -35
Texas +3.5
Michigan State +2
Stanford +7
Iowa
ATS Lock Club
8 Units Navy +9.5
8 Units Georgia -4.5
8 Units Stanford +7
8 Units Washington +10
2 Unit Round Robin Parlay on all 4 Teams (6 Two Team Pars for 2 Units Each)
6 Units North Texas -4
3 Units Minnesota Twins -120
Cajun Sports
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
Pick: Texas Tech -7
Texas Tech takes to the Big 12 road for a meeting in Ames with the hometown Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday evening. ISU is 4-19 straight up and 6-17 against the spread versus teams from the Big 12 South division. Texas Tech is coming off a bye week after their disappointing performance against the Longhorns losing 24 to 14 at home. Iowa State on the other hand was busy defeating in-state rival Northern Iowa 27 to 0. That win and final score are very misleading because the Cyclones offense only managed 13 points while their defense returned two INT’s for touchdowns including one for 94 yards. Iowa State’s defense forced five turnovers including a fumble at their own one-yard line, held the Panthers on downs at their own twenty-yard line, blocked a Northern Iowa field goal attempt and converted a fake field goal into a touchdown drive. Everything went the Cyclones way against the Panthers last week and they were still outgained 320 yards to 210 yards in total offense. Texas Tech has dominated this series posting a record of 7-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread. The favorite in this series is a perfect 6-0 against the number winning by an average of twenty-three points per game. The Tech defense has been solid allowing 100 yards rushing per game on 3.1 yards per carry, getting to the QB with twelve sacks, and forcing eleven turnovers to this point in the season. Our situational database looks at teams playing their fourth game of the season and coming off a bye week. The search reveals a powerful angle when teams coming off a bye lost both SU and ATS the previous week, these teams are 30-20 ATS in their next game. If that loss was their first loss of the season, their record improves to 17-5 against the spread in their next game and if they were a favorite of underdog of three or fewer points in their last game their record is a mind boggling 13-1 against the spread. The Red Raiders qualify in each aspect of our bye week angle. A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us from Game 3 on, Play AGAINST a home team (not an underdog of more than 11 points) with five or more days rest before playing Utah and coming off a home game. Playing against these teams has produced a record of 15-0 ATS since 1996 and averages covering the spread by 11.6 points per game. Lay the points with the Red Raiders on Saturday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Texas Tech Red Raiders 37 Iowa State Cyclones 20
Tony Karpinski
10* College Value Play Game of the Week
Texas +3.5
Look for Mack Brown and Texas to be prepared this week after a pathetic showing against UCLA at home last week. Both teams have new QB's but I really like Texas Longhorns QB Garrett Gilbert. Texas expects to get the speedy D.J. Monroe more involved, either in the backfield or as a receiver, and the Texas defense is very tough. I'll take the better defense and QB in this rival and play on TEXAS as a 10* play on Saturday afternoon.
5* Vanderbilt +7.5
Both of these teams remind me of each other as they both look to run the ball first. Both have okay defenses, and just look to not make mistakes and keep the game tight. With that said Vanderbilt is coming off a bye week which is something they did not have a year ago. I think this is huge as they get healthy after some big games in SEC play
Vanderbilt’s defense has not crumbled yet and they are solid against the run so far. Take the points with the SEC team and Vandy to cover the number.
4* Clemson +3.5
Payne Sports
10 Units Indiana +10.5
Who would have thought these two teams would be undefeated after both were projected toward the middle to bottom of the conference. I give Michigan all the credit in the world with what Coach Rod has done with two quality wins against UCONN and at Notre Dame. He is turning this program in the right direction. His system qb is the answer to all his success in Robinson throwing for 700 and running for almost 700 in only 4 games. He is a human highlight reel, but he got injured last week and you know he will play, but will he be 100%? I do not think so and I also look at Michigan having a big look ahead game next week against hated rival Michigan St. If you look further into this game, their offense is explosive, but they outgained UMASS by only 86 yards, and Notre Dame outgained them. This team could easily be 2-2 right now, as Michigan’s defense is atrocious. They are 93rd in total defense and 105 against the pass allowing 263 yards. This plays right into Indiana’s plan and their 9 offensive starters from last year. Chappell is now a senior and showing it throwing close to 900 yards with 9 tds and 0 interceptions in only 3 games. Indiana has yet to really play anyone, but I still love their strength against Michigan’s weakness. They rank 11th in the nation in pass and their defense is a middle of the pack, but I love their chances at home in their Big 10 OPENER. They struggle against the run, but I believe they have been marking this game on their calendar all year. They gave Michigan all they wanted last year and I believe they will again this year at home. Both teams will score points here and this game could be the most exciting of the day, but don’t be surprised if Indiana is there late in the game with a chance to win it.
8 Unit Early Riser - Clemson Tigers +3.5
Northcoast
College Total of Month
4* LSU Under