Joseph D'Amico
TCU vs. Colorado State
Play: TCU -33
The #5 ranked TCU Horned frogs are perfect at 4-0 TY, outscoring foes by an average of 29 PPG. They failed to impress LW, not covering by a ½ point over SMU, 41-24. Their offense is strong but their defense is incredible. They will completely shut down Colorado State. Their blitz packages are ferocious. They are salivating with the thought of facing a true freshman QB in Pete Thomas. Colorado State snapped a 12 game SU losing streak as well as a 9 game ATS skid with a last-second FG over Idaho LW. This team has nothing. They don’t have the running game to keep the “D” of TCU off of their passing game. The Horned Frogs are 5-1ATS their L6 meetings, 7-1 ATS their L8 games played vs. teams with a losing record, and 20-7-1 ATS their L 28 conference games. The Rams are 1-4 ATS their L5 at home, 1-9 ATS their L10 overall, and 0-6 ATS their L6 conference games. Take TCU.
David Malinsky
4* LSU -15.5 over TENNESSEE
We have been on the anti-Les Miles bandwagon for so long that we are not accustomed to writing from this direction – his 3-16 ATS tally as an SEC home favorite is something that has been awfully good to our pockets through the years. It is also something that has become common knowledge in the marketplace, however, and that brings us a price range that is far below where the current realities of these programs calls for. So we confidently shift gears, with the comfort that the X’s and O’s issues that Miles rarely maximizes are also not in play here – this one is all about the physical disparity between the teams.
In this weeks NCAA VERITIES & BALDERDASH column we went into detail about how the Phil Fulmer/Lane Kiffin exits have left the Tennessee roster extremely short-handed. Counting some walk-ons that were elevated to scholarship status they opened fall camp with 76 players, but have already lost nine since that time. It leaves them with a dearth of talent and experience that makes it tough to compete from the opening kickoff against this class of competition, but almost impossible as the game wears on. Through the first three lined games the Volunteers have been out-scored 75-14 in the third and fourth quarter, despite all of those games being in Knoxville, and while getting whipped by Oregon and Florida can be excused, what happened vs. U.A.B. on Saturday was chilling. A weak team from Conference USA simply pushed Tennessee all over the field in the latter stages, winning the second half 16-0 to force the game into O.T., and the only reason that the Blazers did not win in regulation is that they missed five FG’s. Total offense was 544-287, but somehow Tennessee survived to get the outright win, which helps to keep this spread where it is.
Now Derek Dooley has to take his young team on the road for the first time, against the most physical opponent in the trenches they have faced so far, and it is difficult to see this being anything but ugly. There will be little chance of Tennessee generating ball control on the ground, with an OL that has one SR on the entire two-deep chart, and in some stretches last week had three true FR playing together at the same time, getting nowhere against that L.S.U. defensive front. As for Matt Simms finding time to throw, his own statements are a truly dark, yet accurate, assessment of the current realities - “I know it sounds weird, but I really think I’ve kind of mastered how to take a sack and just protect my body and protect the football, as crazy as that sounds. It’s something that’s going to happen each and every game, and you’ve just got to continue to fight through it and stay healthy.” That is what you hear from a QB that has been sacked 11 times in the last two games. And it fits in well with Dooley’s own post-game assessment on Saturday - ”They looked like two equal teams out there. Actually, it really didn’t. It looked like one superior team. It’s just where we are right now.”
So what happens to a defense when their own offense can not pick up some first downs to give them a little rest? They wear out, as the recent results have shown. It got so bad vs. U.A.B. that four different defensive starters had to be on the field for more than 90 plays (SS Prentiss Waggner played every down, plus four more on special teams), and they were so worn down that Dooley had to cancel a day of practice this week. While the L.S.U. offense may lack sophistication, the Tigers have a big and physical OL, with four of the starters at least 300 pounds, including 6-6/318 Joseph Barksdale, 6-7/324 Josh Williford and 6-6/329 Alex Hurst, and they can literally bulldoze their way through a defense that will already show up weary, and have a difficult time gutting through four quarters. That is accentuated by this game being moved up to an afternoon starting time, with a hot and humid forecast for Baton Rouge (kickoff should be around 84 degrees), and with all of that pressure on the Tigers because of their sluggish offensive opening to this season, they will relish the chance to make some explosions.
Evan Altemus
3 Units Clemson +3.5
This game is not setting up well for Miami. They are coming off of a big road primetime win, while Clemson has had two weeks off to prepare. The Tigers are also coming off of a tough road loss to Auburn, so they will likely be anxious to come out strong at home. Miami is simply an over-rated team based on public perception. Jacory Harris is still prone to turnovers, and his road performances have not been that good, despite winning last week. Clemson’s quarterback Kyle Parker has done very well this season, especially limiting turnovers. The Tigers have a very balanced offense and have a good home field advantage. Clemson also was able to beat Miami on the road last season. There is great line value with this selection since the point spread is over a field goal. Make sure to get the Tigers at +3.5 because this game may come down to a last second field goal. Clemson has had more time to prepare, playing at home, and will want to come out strong to avenge their overtime loss to Auburn. They also get Miami coming off of big road win and now having to go back out on the road in a hostile environment. Look for Clemson to get the win.
3 Units Tennessee +16.5
LSU has started the season 4-0, but they were far from impressive wins. The Tigers offense has looked very sluggish at times and has only averaged 299 yards per game. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson has also thrown a 2/4 touchdown to interception ratio. Tennessee is not a dominant team by any teams, but they are good enough to stay within this point spread against an LSU team that is not high scoring. In fact, the Vols can score only about 10 points and still have a good chance at covering. LSU also has a big look ahead spot here, as they have a game against Florida looming next week. Tennessee did not try hard at all last week against UAB, but that game was a horrible sandwich spot due to it being between the Florida and LSU games. Because of that there is great line value here. This point spread hasn’t been even close to this number in the last decade, and I expect Tennessee to keep this game fairly close.
3 Units Stanford / Oregon Under 66½
This line is very inflated due to two main reasons. First, everyone has seen both teams light up the scoreboard this season, especially Oregon which has the #1 ranked offense in the country. Second, last season’s game was very high scoring and both teams combined for over 90 points. However, Stanford’s defense is vastly improved this season and held Notre Dame’s offense in check for the entire game last week. That performance shows that they are able to contain better offenses. Meanwhile, Stanford, while being high scoring this season, mainly uses shorter passes and running the ball on offense. That style of play uses up more clock and shortens the game. Also, this game is one of the marquee games on Saturday, so both teams will play a little more nervous and will be more focused on defense. These big featured games usually feature lower scoring anyway. Oregon’s offense struggled somewhat against Tennessee initially too before breaking out in the 2nd half. However, they still only put up 47 points against them, and I think that Stanford has a vastly better defense. Look for this game to fall under the inflated total.
Sam Clayton
2* Ohio State vs Illinois +17.5
After really restraining myself from going against the Buckeyes the first four weeks, I'm all in Saturday as the situation is finally prime for swooping in and stealing some major value against OSU with a HUNGRY home dog. Let me first say that siding with the Illini doesn't mean I think Ohio State isn't a great team (because they are, no question), however, my true line was 13. A couple factors add to the line inflation, most notably the success Terrell Pryor and Co. have seen at the window. Not only is the No. 2 team in the nation a perfect 4-0 straight up, they've been really sticking it to Vegas at the books as well, posting a 4-0 ATS marker. After Vegas overadjusted their lines for Alabama and Boise State last week, the public failed to catch on and took a beating backing the country's best teams. That curveball comes this week for OSU backers and I'll glady take the extra three to four points with the Illini.
Conference play is usually the time of year where Illinois falls behind the pack --- don't worry, they WILL slide --- but this is easily their BIGGEST Big Ten home opener the past ten years. Hopes for a bowl game are still very much alive, the Champaign fans are still rambunctious and there's a motivational edge for the Illini, who look to avenge last year's embarrassing 30-0 loss at the Horseshoe. As an Illinois alum, trust me when I say these guys love playing the early 11 a.m. games; the fans will be up boozing and tailgating by 7. Memorial Stadium will be stacked, jam packed and colored bright orange, and Ohio State's first real road test will be a rather difficult one . . . especially out of the gate.
Expect Illini offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino to use his trench war advantage up front and get star-in-the-making tailback Mikel LeShoure plenty of carries early. Illinois boasts what I believe is the second best offensive line in the Big Ten behind Wisconsin, and LeShoure's statistics are a direct reflection. After showing flashes of brilliance the past two seasons, the Champaign native and local hero is having a breakout year with 398 yards and 3 scores on 7 yards per carry in three games. More than half the credit goes to the hogs on the O-line, where the average blocker is 6-6, 305. More than just possessing power and strength, this unit is surprisingly quick to their assignments and they do a great job of opening up holes and gaps for the speedy Illinois backs. LeShoure won't run wild on the Buckeye secondary because second level dominance is what Ohio State football prides itself on. The skill positions are what make them great, there's no question, but Illinois' control of the line of scrimmage will go a long way in keeping the clock running and keeping Pryor and the OSU offense off the field.
I spoke to two Illini linebackers a couple days ago and they made it clear they'll be in for a challenge against Pryor. However, they WILL be playing with a sizeable chip on their shoulder because they are sick and tired of hearing how great the Buckeyes swarm to the ball on defense. Said one of them, "Let em keep selling us short --- our offense might not light up the scoreboard against their D, but we're going to throw the kitchen sink against Pryor. We've had this game circled all offseason. We're hungry." Defensive coordinator Vic Koenning is certainly up to the task against Pryor and he will be changing and shaking looks up all game long. He'll operate out of the standard 4-3 defense but mix in some nickel coverage to go along with the Spy coverages, cornerback blitzes and what have you. The key is going to be to attack Pryor and keep him between the tackles. And just like the offensive trench war belongs to Illinois, I love their all UPPERCLASSMAN (3 SR, 1 JR) defensive line. These guys have the experience and are prepared for this Ohio State offense; they'll be absolute mad men on Saturday.
I take line movement pretty damn seriously and the sharps have already told me EVERYTHING. After opening up at 17.5, it immediately dropped to an even 17; since then it has crossed that KEY NUMBER as I'm seeing 16.5 at some shops. That's a hell of a lot of respect to give Illinois, especially with upwards of 80 percent on Ohio State. I cannot stress enough how important home field advantage is in the Big Ten. Illinois is a prime example of a black and white team in terms of playing home and away. The home crowd will skyrocket the adrenaline and Memorial Stadium will give the orange and blue a plethora of energy to exert on Ohio State. This is the third consecutive home game for the Illini and they've had an extra week to prepare for the Buckeyes and the sweater vest. And remember, because OSU is already 4-0 ATS and has stolen plenty of the books money, we're getting extra value and points with the revenge-bent Illini.Woof woof.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Florida (-175) over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has lost 26 of the last 29 road games as an underdog of +150 to +175 and they have also lost 44 of the last 58 road games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs. Charlie Morton has lost 14 of the last 16 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he is 0-7 in road games this season with an ERA of 9.80.
50* Play Colorado (-170) over St. Louis
Colorado pitcher, Ubaldo Jimenez has won 13 of the last 15 day games and he has also won 6 consecutive games vs. NL Central Division Opponents. St. Louis pitcher, Kyle Lohse has lost 29 of the last 37 games as an underdog of +150 or higher and he is 4-8 in all games this season with an ERA of 7.09.
The Duke's Sports
NC State (+3') for 2 Units
We were big on NC State since the season started and we'll continue to ride them here. Russell Wilson, a duel threat at QB, has a solid supporting cast, including a run game to help keep the chains moving. Of course, the overly aggressive Bud Foster defense of V Tech will be bringing heat from all angles. We'll look for the maturity of Wilson to counter it effectively. On the other hand, Tech's QB Tyrod Taylor is good when everything is going good; however, he has crumbled on the road against some good teams and NC State is a good team with a solid defense with fast downhill linebackers. NC State is 6-0 ATS off a SU dog win vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. The Wolfpack is also a sweet 18-7-1 ATS as a dog and 12-5 ATS in conference play. With Tech at 1-7 ATS in October, we'll grab the points again with this money maker from Raleigh as they get sweet revenge from last year's 38-10 humiliation at Blacksburg.
Tony George
Iowa -7
A huge step up for Penn State who has 3 wins against Youngstown State, Temple who they struggled against last week, and Kent State. They played one good team in Alabama and got waxed. Iowa over loss at AZ St and at home. Iowa has Penn States number and have won the last 2 years and covered 5 out of the last 6 meetings. Penn State young and Iowa at home is a beast with a QB with only 1 pick and 9 TDs who is a dual threat. Play 1 Unit on Iowa
Notre Dame -2.5
This line dropped below 3 and I am on the Irish here, even on the road. Notre Dame has had a brutal schedule and after the beating last week against a Stanford team which is very good and underrated, I like them against BC here, who failed to score a single point against VT last week. Notre Dame a talented team and are just adjusting to a learning curve, they get a win here against a beatable opponent. Play 1 Unit on Notre Dame
Bonus 2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Play a half unit. Tease Nevada to -14.5 and Tease NC State to +10
Rocketman
4* Rutgers -17
Tulane is 3-11 ATS last 3 years after playing a conference game. Tulane is 19-39 ATS since 1992 when playing against a team with a winning record. Rutgers is 6-1 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a losing record. Tulane is allowing 42 points per game on the road this year. Rutgers is allowing only 10.3 points per game overall this year and 8.5 points per game at home this season. We'll play Rutgers for 4 units today!
Marc Lawrence
4 Units Michigan State +2
The Spartans host the Badgers in a battle of Big 10 unbeatens Saturday afternoon in a game with solid edges in MSU's favor. For openers State is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a home dog with revenge if they scored 45 or more point in their last game. In addition, the Spartans are 5-0 ATS as dogs in game in which both teams are undefeated. Our powerful database tells us to: Play On any unrested and undefeated Game Five college home dog versus an opponent that won 10 or less games last year if our team won 14 or less of its previous 22 games straight up. That's because these home dogs are 12-0 ATS since 1980. In addition, the database tells us to: Play Against any Game Five or greater undefeated conference road favorite that scored 56 or more points in its last game versus an opponent with revenge off a win versus a greater then .500 opponent if the road favorite won 12 or less games last season and the road favorite did not throw a shutout in its last game. That's because these road favorites are 0-14 ATS in this role since 1980. Look for a spirited effort from the Spartans against a Wisconsin squad that is winless as a road favorite against .800 or greater opponents (0-3-1 ATS since 1980). We recommend a 4-unit play on Michigan State.
Lenny Del Genio
Georgia-4.5
If you though HC Mark Richt's seat was hot in Athens following UGA's first-ever 0-2 SEC start during his tenure, the poor man probably cannot even sit down following a 24-12 loss at Mississippi State LW that dropped them to 0-3 in conference play! That non-cover "dropped" them to 12-2 ATS when off BB SEC losses and after averaging 14 PPG in those three losses, the Dawgs drop in class to play a Colorado team that could easily be 1-2 if not for a remarkable 2nd half turnaround last game vs. Hawaii. In that game, the Buffaloes held Hawaii to just seven rushing yards and outscored them 31-3 after the half, but note that the Buffs are an horrendous 1-10 ATS following a game where they limited their opponent to 40 rushing yds or less. UGA gets a huge offensive boost this week with the return of WR AJ Green, whose silly suspension by the NCAA severly limited what the Bulldogs could do on that side of the ball. Throughout Richt's tenure, his teams have been incredible on the road, going 33-7 straight up. Colorado is just 2-9-1 SU vs. SEC teams and let's not forget that this is a team just three weeks removed from a 52-7 beatdown at the hands of a California team that would lose outright to Nevada by three touchdowns in its following game. Georgia is our 20* Non-Conf Game of the Month.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Iowa-7
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Penn State is 1-3 ATS to start the year; 3-1 SU. Last week it beat Temple 22-13, unable to cover the 13 1/2-point spread.
Penn State always has its hands full with Iowa; just 1-5 its last six vs. the Hawkeyes.
On the other side of the field: Iowa is 2-2 ATS to start the year; 3-1 SU. Last week it annihilated Ball State 45-0, easily covering the large 27 1/2-point spread.
Iowa has excelled in this spot over the last two seasons; 7-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10-points; 10-6 ATS vs. conference opponents.
Mike Lineback
4* North Carolina State +3.5
NC State 4-0 SU & ATS this season, are coming off quality road win vs. Georgia Tech (not an easy place to play). Team is much improved on defense. They held Georgia Tech to a season low 247 rushing yards, and should match up well vs. VirginiaTech's ground oriented offense as well, missing their best running back Ryan Williams. NC State veteran QB Wilson is off to a fast start (11-1 TD/Int ratio; 1100+ Pyds), and has more talented skill players to work with. More importantly, V-Tech are off to alarming start to season. They lost their two first home games to Boise State and James Madison. Yes, James Madison?? And were outplayed by both East Carolina and Boston College in the first half. Plus, Wolfpack playing with revenge after getting trounced in Blacksburg last season. NC State turned the ball over (4-1) and fell behind early last year, and couldn't generate any offense as a result. With home field and current level of play, I don't anticipate the Wolfpack losing the turnover battle Saturday afternoon. Take the points.
Derek Mancini
40 Dime Michigan St
Nick Bogdanovich
Navy
Indiana Over
Seabass
400 Oregon State buy down to 3
300 Georgia Tech -10
200 Michigan State
200 VT- 3.5
200 Texas +4
200 Colorado State
100 Clemson