Tim Trushel
20* Duke
Boston Coll Over
Oregon St Under
Florida
Clemson
Hawaii Over
LSU First Half Under
BOB VALENTINO
50 DIME Georgia Bulldogs
Craig Davis
50 Dime Stanford
Kiki Sports
3 Units GOY - Iowa
2 Units Michigan State +2
2 Units Va Tech -3.5
1 Unit Vanderbilt +7.5
1 Unit Michigan -10
1 Unit Rutgers -14.5
1 Unit Notre Dame -2.5
1 Unit Florida +8.5
1 Unit Stanford/Oregon Over 66.5
Jeff Benton
15 DIME WESTERN MICHIGAN
15 DIME NORTH CAROLINA STATE
15 DIME WASHINGTON STATE
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Tremendous situational play here, as you’ve got Western Michigan coming out of a bye week (and eager to atone for a 13-point home loss to Toledo in a game the Broncos dominated) playing on homecoming against downtrodden Idaho, which has to go on the road for the second straight week after losing at god-awful Colorado State last Saturday on a field goal as time expired.
Even though the records show Western Michigan at 1-2 and Idaho at 2-2, I have the Broncos as the higher-rated team in my power rankings. Their two losses have come against teams (Michigan State and Toledo) that are much better than most though coming into the season – and as I mentivned, Western Michigan outplayed Toledo two weeks ago, rolling up 416 yards and allowing just 268, but they were done in by six turnovers (including four picks by QB Alex Carder, who otherwise went 43-for-64 for 403 yards).
Meanwhile, Idaho’s two wins both were at home against Division I-AA North Dakota and UNLV (one of the worst I-A programs in the country) by a combined score of 75-7. In their two road games, the Vandals have fallen to Nebraska 38-17 (the game wasn’t that close, as the Huskers had a 471-279 yardage edge but lost the ball four times) and Colorado State (which had lost its first three games by a combined score of 106-19!).
Going back to last season, Idaho has lost four straight road games (1-3 ATS) while surrendering 70, 63, 38 and 36 points. And since a 21-6 season-opening win at New Mexico State last year, the Vandals’ D has allowed an average of 43.6 ppg in seven roadies. How can a team that plays defense THAT horribly away from home – a team that just lost in heartbreaiking fashion on the road – be laying points … ON THE ROAD? Especially against an opponent that can fling the ball all over the field and score points in a hurry (Western Michigan is averaging 29 ppg and 332 passing ypg)?
Since opening last year as college football spread-covering darling (6-0 ATS), Idaho is just 2-6-1 against the number in lined games. The Vandals have also failed to cash in nine of their last 11 as a road favorite, and they’re 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games when coming off a loss. Throw in the fact this is Idaho’s third road game in four weeks, and I’m siding with the motivated and well-rested underdog on homecoming, as the wrong team is favored in this game.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE
Perhaps I’m a little slow to jump on the Wolfpack bandwagon – we’ll see. And I’m aware that we’re not getting the kind of take-back here that we would’ve gotten as recently as two weeks ago (when Virginia Tech would’ve been laying more than a touchdown). But those are the only two reasons this selection isn’t rated higher, because N.C. State had a fantastic September.
After ending last year with a 28-27 upset win over rival North Carolina (as a 5½-point home underdog), the Wolfpack have opened 2010 with four straight wins, with each one being more impressive than the last. They started with a 48-7 home rout of Western Carolina (big whoop), then went to Central Florida and forced five turnovers in a 28-21 victory as a three-point underdog, then came home and ripped Cincinnati 30-19 as a two-point home chalk, then went back on the road last week and shredded a very good Georgia Tech squad 45-28 as an eight-point underdog.
In the victories the last two weeks, North Carolina State outgained Cincinnati (491-385) and Georgia Tech (527-363) by a combined 270 yards. That becomes even more impressive when you consider that Cincinnati nearly upset Oklahoma last week, while Georgia Tech entered this season ranked 16th in the nation.
What I really like about N.C. State has been the balance and consistency. During its five-game winning streak, Tom O’Brien’s squad has scored 28, 48, 28, 30 and 45 points and yielded an average of just 20.4 ppg (and that average would be even lower if not for two garbage touchdowns allowed two weeks ago to Cincinnati). That’s the consiltency part. Here’s the balance: The Wolfpack are averaging 289.2 passing yards per game and 145 rushing yards per game, while the defense is yielding 185.5 ypg through the air and just 125.8 ypg on the ground (3.5 per carry).
Without question, the key to N.C. State’s resurgence has been the maturation of junior QB Russell Wilson, who should be a Heisman candidate right now. In four wins, Wilson has passed for 1,112 yards, 11 TDs and just one INT. And that doesn’t even include a 20-for-27, 259-yard, 4 TD, 0 INT performance in the season-ending victory over North Carolina (which had one of the best defenses in the country last year).
As for Virginia Tech, it has turned things around since season-opening losses to Boise State and James Madison. In fact, the Hokies trailed their third opponent (East Carolina) 27-21 midway through the third quarter two weeks ago and has since outscored East Carolina and Boston College 47-0. But this is a very tough spot for the Hokies, having to go on the road as a favorite for the second straight week and doing so with top running back Ryan Williams (hamstring) at less than 100 percent. And this is a big revenge spot for N.C. State, which got whipped 38-10 at Va-Tech last year as a 21-point underdog (prior to that, seven previous meetings had been decided by a total of 17 points, including one tie).
Both teams have been solid against the number recent – the Hokies are on ATS runs of 7-2 overall, 4-0 as a road favorite and 35-16 in ACC play; N.C. State is on pointspread upticks of 18-7-2 overall (5-0 last five), 4-1 at home, 18-7-1 as a ‘dog and 6-1 as a home pup – but here’s my favorite stat of the week: Wolfpack coach O’Brien is 17-2 ATS in the last 19 times his teams have faced an opponent that’s coming off back-to-back wins – meaning he knows how to knock a foe that’s flying high right back down to earth.
Grab the points with the surging, confident home underdog … and don’t be surprised by an outright upset!
WASHINGTON STATE
How do I back a team that’s got just two wins in its last 27 games against Division I-A competition?
A team that has lost 15 in a row to I-A foes by scores of 27-6, 52-6, 27-14, 49-17, 40-14, 48-7, 43-7, 42-10, 30-0, 65-17, 35-21 and 50-16?
A team that has dropped 13 consecutive road games by an average of 31.8 ppg?
And a team that has lost its last two meetings with today’s opponent by the combined score of 71-10?
Hey, it’s not easy to defend, I’ll grant you that. But let’s not forget that there’s no such thing as a sure thing in this business, and as horrific as Washington State has been since the start of the 2008 season, that doesn’t mean the Cougars can’t rise up and cover an extremely inflated pointspread against an overrated Bruins squad that is in a major flat spot.
Yes, UCLA deserves credit for consecutive blowout wins over Top 25 teams Houston (31-13) and Texas (34-12) – a lot of credit. But don’t lose sight of the fact that Houston’s all-everything QB Case Keenum went into his team’s game against the Bruins having not played the previous week because of a concussion, then suffered a season-ending knee injury in the game (Keenum’s backup later suffered his own season-ending injury against UCLA). And last week, while the Bruins dismantled Texas as a 15½-point ‘dog, it got outgained by 58 yards and threw just nine passes for 27 yards – and the Longhorns were in a big look-ahead spot because of this week’s game against Oklahoma.
UCLA has a totally one-dimensional offense with absolutely ZERO passing attack (the Bruins have passed for 327 TOTAL yards in four games!), and I just don’t see how a team that unbalanced can cover a four-touchdown spread.
Bottom line: No team in college football has posted more fluky wins than UCLA the last three years – and by fluky I mean games where they were outgained by a wide margin and still won. Today, the Bruins can’t rely on “fluky”; they’ll have to have to seriously outplay Washington State for four solid quarters to cover this massive number.
Three final points to make: 1) The last time UCLA was this big of a favorite was in Week 2 of the 2006 season when the Bruins laid 27½ points at home to Rice and struggled in a 26-16 win; 2) Prior to the last two years, Washington State had cashed in seven straight meetings with the Bruins; and 3) UCLA – which has consecutive road games at Cal and Oregon on deck – is just 11-27-1 ATS in its last 39 games against losing teams.
KELSO
50 Units Iowa State -7
25 Units UTEP -15
10 Units Notre Dame -2.5
5 Units Alabama -8
5 Units Georgia Tech -10
5 Units Kentucky +3
5 Units Michigan State +1.5
5 Texas +2.5
Bruce Marshall
Louisiana Tech at Hawaii
Pick: Hawaii -7.5
Ever try booking a round trip from Ruston, LA to Honolulu with your travel agent? If you have, you wouldn't wonder why the road team has had so much trouble in this series between far-flung WAC foes Hawaii and La Tech, as the visitor has failed to cover the last six meetings. So, it's edge to the host Warriors this week, especially with the Bulldogs just 8-20 as a road underdog since 2005.
Sal Devito
10* GOY Illinois +17
4* Miami
Ultra Sports
5* NC State +4
5* Hawaii -8.5
Mike Neri
4* Hawaii
3* Michigan
3* Baylor
3* Alabama
No need to keep hitting refresh every 10 seconds since it just bogs down the site so nobody can use it.
If it keeps up and the site keeps going down I will quit posting plays.
Street Rosenthal
*200 Clemson +3.5
*200 Illinois +17
*200 North Carolina -14
*200 Michigan Under 66
*300 Louisville -4
*300 Florida +8
Northcoast
4* Navy
4* Rice
4* Ohio St
4* Florida St
3* Florida
WAYNE ROOT
Billionaire - Miss. St.
Question about this play so tread carefully.
KELSO
50 Units Iowa State -7
Should be Iowa -7
Added Play
25 Units Stanford