KELSO
50 Units North Carolina +6.5
25 Units Miami (OH) +3
25 units South Carolina -12.5
10 Units Louisville -3
5 Units Ok St +6
5 Units Air Force +18.5
5 Units Phils -160
Savannah Sports
3* North Carolina +7
2* West Virginia -13.5
2* Tennessee +16.5
Eric Degarde
3* Northwestern +6
2* New Mexico +23.5
Joyce Sterling
10* Texas Tech -2.5
SMU -7.5
Louisville -2.5
Chuck O'Brien
40 Dime Iowa
10 Dime Auburn
Jeff Benton
30 DimeTEXAS
10 Dime BYU
10 Dime MINNESOTA
TEXAS
Forget about a letdown with the Longhorns – it’s not happening. How can I be so sure? Because Texas coach Mack Brown has shown his players the tape from last week’s 20-13 upset win at fifth-ranked Nebraska and pointed out in detail how lucky the Longhorns were to walk out of Lincoln with a victory. The Cornhuskers’ shot themselves in the foot repeetedly on offense, with receivers dropping at least four balls (including an easy catch at the goal line that could’ve tied the game in the fourth quarter).
And if watching film of the Nebraska game didn’t get his players’ attention, all Brown had to do was show them what happened the previous two weeks when they lost to UCLA at home (34-12) and Oklahoma at a neutral site in Dallas (28-20) despite outgaining both squads.
No, I’m quite confident the Longhorns will have come down sufficiently from the high of last week’s upset and will be ready to play football this afternoon. And if I’m correct in that judgment, Texas will obliterate an Iowa State squad that, well, is used to getting obliterated. In the last two weeks, Iowa State has lost to Utah at home and Oklahoma on the road by a combined score of 120-27. Throw in a 35-7 loss at Iowa, and Iowa State is 0-3 SU and ATS against ranked teams this year, losing 35-7, 68-27 and 52-0 while getting outgained by a total of 938 yards!
Translation: The Cyclones simply can’t compete against upper-echelon opponents, and despite its 4-2 record, Texas definitely qualifies as such. Yes, the Longhorns’ offense (which has scored 24 points or less in four straight games for an average of 19 ppg) and new QB Garrett Gilbert (202 passing ypg, 4 TDs, 5 INTs) have struggled this season. But if ever there was a game when the Texas offense would explode, it’s this one against Iowa State, whose defense is atrodcious. Check the numbers:
The Cyclones give up an average of 33 points and 455.3 total yards per game, including 219 rushing ypg (5.1 yards per carry). In three road losses to Iowa, Kansas State and Oklahoma, Iowa State has surrendered an average of 43.5 points and 575.5 total yards per game, including 300 rushing ypg. And over the last three weeks – and keep in mind, I’m throwing in a 52-38 home victory over Texas Tech here – the Cyclone defense has gotten torched for 52.7 points and 591 total yards per game. We’re talking 359.3 passing yards and 231.7 rushing yards per game allowed!
Contrast that with what Texas’ defense has done this year. The Longhorns rank fourth in the country in total defense (245.5 ypg), third in passing defense (138 ypg), and they’re holding opposing rushing attacks to just 107.5 total yards per game but an even more incredible 2.7 yards per rushing attempt (tied for seventh best in the nation). Last week, Nebraska took the field against Texas averaging 337.6 rushing yards per game … and were held to 125 rushing yards on 44 carries (2.8 ypc). The Huskers were also averaging 41.6 ppg and managed only 13 against the Longhorns.
Here’s my point: Unless I’m DEAD WRONG about Texas and the letdown theory, there is no way Iowa State scores more than 10 points in this football game today. That means all the Longhorns have to do is put up more than 31 points to cover this pointspread. Given how Iowa State has played defense all year – especially on the road and especially against Top 25 teams – I can’t imagine Gilbert and the Longhorns failing to at least hit that number.
Two more notes of interest: Texas has manhandled Iowa State in the last three meetings (40-19, 37-14, 56-3), and aside from the 52-point, 441-yard explosion against Texas Tech three weeks ago, the Cyclones have averaged just 18 points and 285.3 yards per game.
BYU
It’s not every day that I’ll lay double digits with a team that’s 2-5, averaging barely two touchdowns per game and coming off a 31-3 conference road loss. But that just speaks to how awful Wyoming is, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
Out of 120 teams in Division I-A, Wyoming ranks 119th in scoring (averaging 11.6 ppg), 120th in total offense (232.4 total yards per game), 119th in rushing offense (68.9 ypg), 120th in first downs (11.9 per game) and 117th in third-down conversion percentage (26.5 percent). And the Cowboys haven’t been much better on the other side of the ball, giving up more than 30 points per game while ranking 117th in total defense (allowing 465.3 ypg).
Over their last six contests, Wyoming has one victory (20-15 at Toledo as a four-point underdog) and five losses. In those five defeats – against Utah, TCU, Air Force, Boise State and Texas – the Cowboys scored a total of 33 points, averaged 201 total yards per game and got outgained by the following yardage margins: 248, 387, 108, 205, 513 and 132.
Admittedly, like Wyoming BYU enters this game in a 1-5 slump. And like Wyoming, the Cougars’ offense has been less than imprensive this year, averaging just 14.7 points and 303.3 total yards per game. But BYU actually played TCU much tougher than the 31-3 final score indicates (it was a 3-0 game with 90 seconds left in the first half, and the Cougars’ defense held the Horned Frogs to just 108 rushing yards, well below TCU’s rushing average of 279 ypg). And prior to going to TCU, the Cougars knocked off red-hot San Diego State, winning 24-21 as a five-point home underdog and outgaining the Aztecs 413-273.
Finally, this has been a completely one-sided rivalry in recent years, with BYU winning six straight meetings SU and ATS (all by double digits) and nine of the last 10. The combined score in the last four series clashes has been BYU 176, Wyoming 17, with the Cougars posting back-to-back shutouts the last two years (44-0 in Provo, 52-0 in Laramie).
Because of the way this season has gone, BYU is in need of a similar blowout victory, as it tries to build some confidence heading into the final month of the season (particularly offensively with struggling freshman QB Jake Heaps). So if the Cougars get the opportunity to run up the score, they will.
MINNESOTA
Things are a mess in Gopher country, and I certainly recognize that. But I have a feeling now that embattled coach Tim Brewster’s fate has been decided – he was immediately fired after last week’s 28-17 loss at Purdue, the team’s fifth in a row since a season-opening 24-17 win at Middle Tennessee State – Minnesota is going to respond positively. How many times have you seen in college football players rally around each other when their leader gets shown the door – especially when that first game without their old coach is at home?
As much as I believe the Gophers have an emotional edge coming into this contest with an “us against the world” mentality, there are several fundamental facts that have me scratching my head over this pointspread. See, Minnesota’s offense hasn’t been that bad at all this year. The Gophers have averaged 25 points and 380 yards per game, with a fairly balanced attack (238.6 passing ypg, 141.6 rushing ypg). The problem for Minnesota has been defensively. Since the 24-17 win at Middle Tennessee, the Gophers have surrendered an average of 34.2 ppg, giving up 28 points or more in every game.
Thing is, Penn State’s offense is a joke. Take away a 44-14 win over Division I-AA Youngstown State to open the season, and the Nittany Lions have put up the following point totals: 3 (Alabama), 24 (Kent State), 22 (Temple), 3 (Iowa) and 13 (Illinois). That’s 13 points per game! On top of that, Penn State has opened Big Ten play with two ugly losses: 24-3 at Iowa (as a 7 ½-point road underdog) and 33-13 vs. Illinois (as a nine-point home favorite).
And Joe Pa’s squad is laying darn-near double digits here? Insane. Hell, just look at the QB comparison: Nittany Lions freshman Robert Bolden has passed for 1,177 yards with four TDs and seven picks, while Minnesota senior Adam Webber has thrown for 1,662 yards with a 14-6 TD-to-INT ratio. Uh, advantage Gophers!
Penn State has been a pointspread disaster this year (1-5 ATS), and it has just seven spread-covers in its last 23 games when laying between 3½ and 10 points (meanwhile, Minnesota is 4-3 ATS this year and has cashed in five of its last seven as an underdog). And check out the results the last three times Penn State visited Minneapolis: 25-16 loss, 16-7 loss, 28-27 overtime win. Take the points, and don’t be shocked if the energized Gophers spring the outright upset.
Seabass
300* Northwestern +6
100* Navy +7
Nick Bogdanovich
Kansas
North Carolina
Northcoast
5* Georgia
4* Nebraska
4* Okla
4* W. Va
4* Iowa
3* Louisville
3* Northwestern
5 Star Sports
5* Air Force + 18.5
4* SMU - 8
4* Kent - 2.5
3* Wisconsin + 6
3* Iowa State + 20.5
3* Rice + 22.5
3* Texas Tech - 2.5
3* San Francisco / Philadelphia Under 7
The Duke's Sports
SMU (-8') for 2 Units
SMU is seeking revenge from last years beat-down at Houston. Today, they catch an injury plagued Houston team down to its 3rd team QB and a struggling defense which allows 280 ypg on the ground not a good combination on the road. SMU, which is coming off a loss, sports a 9-2 ATS mark as a favorite off a SU/ATS loss. The Cougars, on the other hand, are a mere 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road dog roles . We'll look for the sound running game of the Mustangs to fuel their offense and allow quality QB Padron to settle in and work Cougars' struggling secondary. SMU the call.
Power Play Wins
Texas -21
Mike Rose
8* Nebraska
Alatex
20* Super Play - Nebraska
PPP
5% Georgia
5% Iowa
4% Georgia Tech
4% Nebraska
4% Ohio State
3% Navy
3% North Carolina
3% Rutgers
The Prez
10* Oklahoma
Lt Profits
5* LSU
Marc Lawrence
5 Unit GOM LSU
3 Units Notre Dame
3 Units Northwestern
3 Units Georgia
3 Units Missouri
3 Units Northwestern
Bob Valentino
Nebraska
Don Wallace Sports
Navy +7
San Diego St -23.5
Iowa -6
Mike Neri
4* Iowa
3* Ohio St
3* Nebraska
3* Georgia
Mark Franco
Oklahoma at Missouri
Pick: Missouri +3
Oklahoma has had Missouri's number over the years. In fact they have won 19 of the last 20 games in the series, with Missouri's only win coming in 1998. But this year things are different as the Tigers do have close to the talent that Oklahoma has shown for years. The Missouri offense is underrated and is led by QB Blaine Gabbert but their defense is even more unheralded as they are the Big 12’s best at 10.8 points per game. The home crowd will be loud and wild and the Tigers get the cover and maybe the outright upset here. Oklahoma just 6-18 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards while Missouri is 50-31 ATS after a game were they forced one or fewer turnovers.
Executive
600% Clemson -4
300% SMU -8.5
300% Maryland +4.5
300% Colorado +3
Craig Davis
50 Dime TCU