RAS
1 Unit Ohio -10.5
DR BOB
South Florida (+7) 3-Stars at +7 or more, 2-Stars down to +4.
Purdue (-10) 2-Stars at -10 or less, Strong Opinion up to -11.
Indiana (+6) 2-Stars at +3 1/2 or more.
Alabama (-14 1/2) 2-Stars at -17 or less, 3-Stars at -14.
Auburn (+7 1/2) 3-Stars at +7 or more, 2-Stars down to +5.
Strong Opinions
Maryland (+5) Strong Opinion at +4 or more.
Ohio (-9 1/2) Strong Opinion at -10 or less.
Missouri (+13) Strong Opinion at +11 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +14.
Michigan State (pick) Strong Opinion at -1 or pick, 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.
USC (-20 1/2) Strong Opinion at -21 or less.
Nebraska (-17 1/2) Strong Opinion at -18 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -17.
Purelock
Virginia
BEN BURNS
BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR!
Oregon St at USC
Play: USC -20.5
I had a big play (2008 Sept. GOM) on Oregon State when the Beavers upset the Trojans last season. I'll admit that I didn't call for the outright upset. However, I did feel the number was much too high, for a game at Corvallis. Not only is this season's rematch being played in Southern California, but we've actually got a lower number to work with. With the Trojans coming in with "payback" on their minds, I feel that lower number provides us excellent value on the favorite. USC doesn't lose too many games - the Beavers were the only ones to beat them last year. This season's loss at Washington nothwithstanding, the Trojans don't lose many conference road games either. When they do, they almost always avenge those losses when they host the team the following season. Prior to last year's loss at Oregon State, the Trojans last Pac-10 road loss was at Oregon in 2007. Last year, the Trojans hosted the Ducks and won 44-10 as 16 point favorites! In 2006, they lost at UCLA and at Oregon State. In 2007, when hosting those teams, they won by a combined score of 48-10. That included a 24-3 win and cover over the Beavers, as 15 point favorites. Including that victory, the Trojans are a perfect 21-0 the last 21 times that they hosted the Beavers. The last three of those victories all came by a minimum of three touchdowns, each also resulting in a pointspread win. Including the 24-3 win here in 2007, the Trojans beat the Beavers by a score of 52-28 here in 2005 and 22-0 here in 2003. While the Trojans haven't been blowing their opponents out quite as much as they have in past years, their 30-3 victory at California (vs. a really good Bears team) proved that they're still fully capable of crushing teams, when properly motivated and when everything is clicking. Despite playing a relatively difficult schedule, the defense ranks in the top 5 in the country and allows a mere 2.1 yards per carry and 67 rushing yards overall. Meanwhile, the offense put up 500 yards and 34 points last week with QB Barkley, who was out in USC's lone loss, threw for 380 yards. Pete Carroll had this to say of his young quarterback: "I think you see Matt Barkley is really something. I love him, the way he plays, battles, competes, the plays he's capable of making. There's no limit." I expect the Trojans defense to do a MUCH better job stopping the run and also for Barkley to build off last week's big game. I also expect Carroll to "keep the pedal to the metal" the whole way, leading to a convincing win and cover. *10 Blowout GOY
Doc's Sports
6 Units Georgia Tech -5.5
5 Units Michigan +4.5
5 Units Tennessee +14
4 Units Arkansas State -10.5
4 Units Louisville +18
4 Units Minnesota/ Ohio State Under 43
4 Units Boise St -24.5
Tim Trushel
20* Michigan State
Larry Ness
10* LEGEND Play (12-4 s/'05)
ASU and Stanford square off on the West Coast Saturday night in the PAC 10. Both are coming off games which ended in "wild finishes," ASU getting a 'miracle' win and Stanford suffering a heartbreaking loss. The Huskies and Sun Devils were tied at 17-all in Tempe last Saturday and seemingly headed for OT. However, Washington used poor clock management in the final minute or so and wound up having to punt the ball back to ASU with 22 seconds remaining. ASU senior QB Danny Sullivan, who has faced calls from critics to be replaced by highly-touted freshman Brock Osweiler, threw a 50-yard TD pass to Chris McGaha with five seconds to play, giving ASU a stunning 24-17 victory. It marked the longest completion of the embattled QB's career and was the only catch of the night for McGaha, who had missed practice all week with illness but somehow got behind the ENTIRE Washington secondary and was WIDE OPEN! As for Stanford, the Cardinal would blow a 15-point lead to Arizona, including a 38-29 lead in the 4th quarter. The Wildcats closed within 38-36 with 10 minutes to go on a 43-yard TD run and then stopped Stanford on downs at their own eight-yard line. A 37-yard pass got them near mid-field and on a 3rd and 17 play, Arizona broke a 57-yard TD run. With the Wildcats up 43-38, Stanford again reached the Arizona red zone (as far as the 12) but again came up empty. So what happens here? ASU has dominated the last three years of this series , outscoring the Cardinal 120-23 in three wins but a closer look at the recent history shows the home team going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in this series. Sullivan is NOT a good QB (54.5% with a 5-5 ratio) and the ASU running game has no 'star' while averaging 141.8 YPG. The defense is excellent (247.8 YPG / 16.0 PPG allowed) but will be severely tested here on "The Farm." Stanford is led by an outstanding 6' 4" freshman QB, Andrew Luck (57.7% / 227 YPG / 9-3 ratio) and senior RB Toby Gerhart (869 YR / 5.2 YPC / 12 TDs) leads the way for a running game which averages 201.1 YPG (5.2 YPC) with 15 TDs. The Stanford defense is middle-of-the-pack but the ASU offense doesn't own the 'tools' to expose those weaknesses. Stanford is 3-0 SU and ATs at home this year (outscoring opponents on average, 33.3-15.7 PPG) and is 7-1 SU at home since the beginning of last year, losing only USC. In its two Pac 10 home games of 2009, the Cardinal have dominated the line of scrimmage in beating both Washington and UCLA, running for an average of 247.5 YPG (5.3 YPC) while holding their two conference foes to just 97.5 YPG (3.5 YPC). Note that ASU is just 9-19-2 ATS (32.1 percent!) as an away dog this decade. I used a 10* on Stanford back on Sep 26 and the Cardinal CRUSHED Washington, 34-14. Same score here! LEGEND Play on Stanford (10*).
Strike Point
5-Unit Play. Take Georgia Tech -5.5 over Virginia
A lot see this game as a letdown for Tech, but you can throw out the first month of the season for Virginia, because the Cavs are undefeated in ACC play, and that means in this a must win for the Yellow Jackets if they want to continue their push towards the conference title and a BCS game. And so far, nearly everyone has failed to stop Paul Johnson's dynamic triple option, as he has athletes and weapons all over in this brilliant system. After running over the likes of Mississippi State, Florida State and Virginia Tech in consecutive weeks, I just cannot see Virginia doing anything either. Tech is too locked in, and in every facet of the game this team is playing so well. Lay the number, Georgia Tech comes through with another impressive ACC win.
5-Unit Play. Take Kansas State -4.5 over Colorado
This is not an overraction to the Wildcats' monster scoreline last week over Texas A&M, but simply following suit with what these two teams have shown this year. On the road this year Colorado has been one of the worst teams in the country. 0-3 away from Boulder, they have been outscored by 51 points on the road. Kansas State is 3-0 at home and have outscored opponents by 94 points in Manhattan. And let me just say the point differential this week won't be that drastic, but the success and failure on the road for Colorado and at home for Kansas State is too obvious to ignore. That, and Colorado never should have even won last week had it not been for a dropped TD pass by stud wide out Desmond Briscoe for Kansas. Touchdown victory for KSU.
5-Unit Play. Take Louisiana Tech +1 over Utah State
I have not seen anything all season from Utah State to think they can knock off a more than solid Bulldogs team in this WAC match-up. Louisiana Tech has responded nicely after two road losses to begin the season by winning three of their last four overall. With Ross Jenkins under center and Daniel Porter running the ball, Louisana Tech has a very nice duo in the backfield and can put up some points. And the Aggies can allow some points, giving up nearly 33 per game. The trends hold up and La Tech gets back over .500 and perhaps push towards a bowl birth just the same.
5-Unit Play. Take Idaho +15.5 over Nevada
Just cash, baby. All the Vandels have done this year is go 6-1 to start the year and cover all seven spreads in the process. And I for one don't care a bit that Nevada rung up 100 points in their last two home games in league play. Nevada hasn't played well against legit competition, so no reason to hop off the Idaho train just yet. The Wolfpack struggled against Missouri and Notre Dame, and even Colorado State, so even though Idaho is their own team, Nevada has not shown the same moxy against winning teams. Just because they are back in Reno, it doesn't automatically translate into success. Maybe this line suggests that it will, but we are not sold on that idea. Winning breeds confidence, and right now there might not be a more confidence and swagger boasting team than Idaho, and we back them again.
6-Unit Play. Game of the Month. Take Toledo -2.5 over Temple
The injury that has not been factored into this line is the return of Toledo's quarterback and top player Aaron Opelt. After missing essentially the last two games, expect the Rockets and the offense to get back to racking up the yards and scoring points at home. Opelt and his 14 TDs is a big time threat in the MAC and really makes this offense go. Scoring over 33 points per game at home, Toledo will be too much for a Temple team, likely minus starting running back Bernard Pierce, that is only scoring a couple of touchdowns on the road. This one could start to get ugly in the second half. Toledo by double figures.
5-Unit Play. Take Iowa PK over Michigan State
This isn't the week the Hawkeyes suffer their first defeat. Iowa continues to get the job done and rack up the wins. Just because it isn't pretty doesn't mean it is not effective. Iowa is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. winning teams, and I am still not thoroughly convinced that the success Michigan State has had is legit enough to pull off the upset. The Hawkeyes return to Iowa City 8-0
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10 Units Michigan St +1
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I have successfully posted on both these teams as games of the week and I will try Michigan St one more time. I absolutely love what the Spartans have done for me lately. They could easily be 5-1 on the year and be in the top 12 in the nation, but have suffered some heart breakers. And have battled back from an 1-3 start and could finish a possible 8-3 with a New Years bowl as their two toughest games are Iowa and Penn St both at home. Michigan St is a different team at home allowing only 60 yards on the ground their last 3, number 18 overall in nation allowing under 100, and that will be crucial against an Iowa team that loves to play possession ball. Michigan St has had a pretty powerful offense this season with some good quarterback play from Cousins and Nichol as they have combined for 280 yards through the air. The one thing that will bury Iowa I believe is Stanzi, I played him last week at Wisky and against Penn St, but I don't see him being productive here as I see him throwing some costly interceptions. Michigan St is 8-1 ats their last 9 following an ats loss and the home team is 4-1 ats the last 5 in the series. This line will be -2 to -3 by game time for Michigan St and it will be a public burial.
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9 Units Tennessee +14.5
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This is a painful play to make as I will be one of the 90000+ in the stands, but I see no way we cover this spread. This is Alabama's most dangerous game the rest of the year as I dont pose LSU as a threat to interupt the SEC Championship hopes and Tennessee coming off a bye with Crompton getting confidence is a dangerous key. Tennessee was my shocker two weeks ago against Georgia and I said they would win by double digits and Crompton looked like Peyton out there as he scorched the Georiga secondary, but Alabama is not the Georgia secondary and this will be the toughest defense Crompton has seen. This is why I love this play, as I dont see Tennessee shocking us, but I do not see no way they win by more than 10. Both teams will establish the run first, which will enable the clock to move a high pace and this be a quick paced game. Monte Kiffin will bring blitzes all game and that does not bode well for McElroy who has lost his confidence the last two games and the best defensive player lurking on the other side in Eric Berry. Look for Lane Kiffin, to come out with some form of trickery and jump on Alabama early to a quick 3-0, 7-0 lead and this will be a low scoring affair as I see a 20-13 type final. The road team is 6-1-1 ats the last 8 meetings and the last time the spread for this game was set in double digits, which is rare was in 06 when Tennessee and Ainge got all they wanted in Knoxville, as they escaped 16-13 on a late td run by Foster with around 3 to go in the 4th quarter.
6 Units Ole Miss -6
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10* Play of the month
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Iowa vs Michigan St
Play: Michigan St -1
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Despite Iowa's undefeated record, they have not been playing all that well since upsetting Penn St. They barely beat Ark St at home, they could have easily lost the next two vs Michigan and Wisconsin but their opponents beat themselves with mistakes. This line also seems a lot fishy. An undefeated top 10 team is only a 1 point fav vs an unranked 3 loss team? I know it's on the road but the books must know something we don't. Everyone can see the trends in favor of Iowa; 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, 6-1 ATS vs Michigan St in their last 7. What you should be looking at are the 4 straight wins MSU has posted at home vs Iowa. The Spartans are a hot team and are facing Iowa at the perfect time as they are seemingly on cruise control till their match-up with Ohio St.
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Tennessee vs. Alabama
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Have a feeling here, Alabama struggles against Monte Kiffens defense and Tennessee will not go quietly in the night here. Tennessee with nothing to lose and in October, no wins comes easy in the SEC. The Vols gave Florida all they wanted in the Swamp and are no stranger to hostile stadiums. Vols defense held Florida to 23, and Auburn to 26 and Georgia to 19 points. This opened at 15.5 on the line, sharps all over Tennessee here and so am I.
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Play 1 Unit on the Vols
Pointwise Phone Service
4* UCF, NEVADA
3* ARKANSAS, SYRACUSE, AUBURN, STANFORD, LA-MONROE, PENN ST
2* CENTRAL MICH, UTAH ST, NOTRE DAME, FRESNO ST
HELMUT
C Michigan / Bowling Green Over
Texas A&M / Texas Tech Over
Wunderdog
N Illinois
Oklahoma
Syracuse
Cal
UNLV
Texas
Al Demarco
5 Dime BYU