3GWins
10* Underdog game of the month: VIRGINIA +5.5
10* Revenge burial: SYRACUSE -10
5* Colorado +5
5* West Virginia -7.5
4* Nevada -15.5
4* Michigan St -1.5
Ethan Law
THE NCAA GAME OF THE MONTH
Colorado (2-4) at Kansas State (4-3)
Well I had both of these pegged in last week’s card so I feel as though we have a very good grasp on both of these teams going into this match-up. As I stated last week, Colorado (2-4 SU & 4-2 ATS) has a very pass oriented offense and what is perceived to be (on paper) a bad defense. They have averaged 27 points and 254 yards passing, but the defense has allowed 29 points per game allowed. They stared the season with junior quarterback Cody Hawkins (9 touchdowns, 9 interceptions) but he has been benched by his father, so sophomore quarterback Tyler Hansen (1 TD, 1 interception) will run the offense for the remainder of the season. Almost everybody remembers their national embarrassment 54-38 defeat in Toledo, getting 356 passing yards, but allowing 624 yards. They had a 35-24 loss at West Virginia allowing 405 yards (257 rushing). However, we did see some array of hope over the past two weeks, when Colorado’s defense held one of the most prolific offenses in the Nation in Texas (as they were actually leading this contest 14-10 at the half), but their offense finished with just 127 total yards with an incredible 20 penalties for 140 yards! This past weekend, they held yet another powerful Kansas offense to minus-7 yards rushing and hounded quarterback Kerry Meier. The secondary allowed 430 yards (most in the second half), but as stated above they continue to improve. Meanwhile, Kansas State (4-3 SU & 2-3 ATS) has been working on new things for Coach Bill Snyder. He has no quarterback experience with junior quarterback Carson Coffman (2 touchdowns, 4 interceptions), so similar to Kansas the head coach is trying out senior quarterback Grant Gregory (3 touchdowns, 1 interception). The offense averages more yards rushing than passing but does average a respectable 26 points per game. Significant to this is the fact that they are straight off a absolute killing of Texas A&M 62-14 with 424 yards.
I absolutely love this set-up, the line value and the fundamental match-up advantage for Colorado. The one weakness for the Buffalo’s is their secondary, but Kansas State is not a pass oriented offensive unit so they will be unable to exploit that weakness. As I stated last week, I am above all a “value bettor” and I see some incredible value in this line. When I analyze this Colorado team a few things come to mind. First, two of their losses were on the road to West Virginia and Texas, two very solid clubs and one of them being one of the very best in the nation. Their other loss came on the road to Toledo, which although inexcusable (it should be noted it was their first road game of the season) and this same club did put up 31 points at Purdue. Colorado lost the first game of the season (in a heated rivalry against Colorado State) and won their only other home game against Wyoming. Everybody seems to discuss the Kansas State Offense, but this is also a very poor defensive club one that is actually on par with Colorado’s. We cannot forget that just two weeks ago this Kansas State team allowed an incredible 739 total yards of offense. What is even scarier for Wildcat supporters is the fact that the Red Raiders “backup” quarterback was 33-for-41 and finished with touchdown passes of 52, 6, 4, 72, 28, 12 and 25 yards to five receivers. Did I mention Colorado was a pass happy offense as well. Although A&M only managed 14 points in the route they still managed 301 yards which was surprising for such an inexperienced team on the road. I again think that the switch at quarterback give’s the Buffalo’s something they have not seem much this season and that is “balance” on offense. Tyler Hansen has already rushed for a boatload of rushing yards in limited action last year. It should also be noted that Kansas State has Oklahoma on deck (the same situation Kansas was in last weekend) (a game that the players and coaches have been pointing to all season). The route of A&M has added about 2 points of value to this contest as well. Hmmm….this really does not get any better than this….Part II
Verdict: Kansas St 17, Colorado 31
PLAY 2* UNITS (3%) ON COLORADO +4.5
Central Florida vs Rice
Verdict: UCF 28, Rice 24
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON RICE +10
Wake Forest vs Navy
Verdict: Wake Forest 34, Navy 21
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON WAKE FOREST +1.5
Arkansas vs Mississippi
Verdict: Ole Miss 31, Arkansas 27
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON MISSISSIPPI -6
Central Michigan vs Bowling Green
Verdict: Central Michigan 31, Bowling Green 34
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON BOWLING GREEN +8
Best Pick Sports
5 Units Tenn / Ala Under 43
4 Units Georgia Tech -5
2 Units Miami -4.5
Doc's Sports
6 Unit Play. Take Georgia Tech -5½ over Virginia ACC Game of the Year.
Last year the Jackets were off to a great start, then they hit a road block, losing to Virginia, 24-17. In that game, Georgia Tech led 14-3 at one point before giving the game away. In 2009, Tech is once again off to a great start, could history repeat itself?
Not so fast! I firmly believe this team has too much talent to fold once again. Former Navy Coach Paul Johnson is in his second year and he knows how important this game is. Their only bad performance this year took place on a Thursday Night game at Miami, a spot in which they were coming off a big win against Clemson. Virginia is once again following a similar pattern: starting out slow and putting Coach Groh on the hot seat only to make a late season run and save his job. That will not happen this year and Coach Groh may lose his job. Tech has lost eight straight in Charlottesville and will end that streak on Saturday. Cavalier QB Jameel Sewell did leave the game last week with a sprained ankle, but should play in this game. It will not matter as the talent is just too deep on the Yellow Jackets sideline. This team is ready to win the ACC Conference and, remember, they were favored by 14 points last year. Laying under a touchdown today with this talent discrepancy is too good to pass up. Georgia Tech 31, Virginia 17.
5 Unit Play. Take Michigan +4½ over Penn State Top Big Ten Selection.
It will be rocking at the Big House this week in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines may not yet have the talent that it will in the future under Coach Rodriguez. However, this team is solid and getting better each week. QB Tate Forcier is playing with a lot of confidence and I see no reason why he would not have success here.
I still believe that this Penn State team is overrated. They played a weak non-conference schedule and their only road game thus far has been against Illinois, a team that has thrown in the towel on the season. The Wolverines coasted last week and I look for a real defensive battle here. Coach Rodriguez gets his biggest victory yet while coaching at Michigan and we collect in the process as well. Michigan 21, Penn State 20.
5 Unit Play. Take Tennessee +14 over Alabama Top Underdog Play.
It’s always difficult to be the No. 1 team in the land since everybody gives you their best shot and today will be no different. Although the Vols have lost three games already this season, do not underestimate them. The talent is their as they soundly beat Georgia and took Auburn and Florida to the wire. QB Jonathan Crompton has improved each week and has a punishing running back in Montario Hardesty. Their defense has also been solid and ranks 13th in the country.
As for the Tide, nothing negative can be said. However, checking the injury report I see that the Tide was hit real hard in the secondary. Alabama has LSU next week and Tennessee will enter this game off of a bye. I look for a real defensive battle that goes down to the wire and taking the points is the only call. Alabama 24, Tennessee 20.
4 Unit Play. Take Arkansas State -10½ over Florida International
The Red Wolves were picked by many to win the Sun Belt Conference and now find themselves at 0-2. This certainly does not look promising. However, the team record may be misleading. Two of the four losses have been against Nebraska and Iowa with both of them on the road. This team has too much talent not to pick themselves up. The time is now and this is a perfect spot for them, at home, coming off a bye, and matching up against one of the worst defenses in the league.
Playing a tough non-conference schedule will be rewarding here. That is why they are a double digit favorite, but it is still not close to what it should actually be. Red Wolves led 21-12 in the fourth quarter in 2008, only to lose 22-21. That was their third straight road game when that loss occurred. No looking back this time, homer gets the call. Arkansas St 41, Florida Int 20.
4 Unit Play Take Louisville +18 over Cincinnati
There’s no question that the Bearcats are the best in the Big East. However, I do not think they are 18 points better then Louisville. This is a big rivalry and QB Tony Pike left last game with a left forearm injury and is questionable for this one.
As for the Cardinals, the offense rolled again last week only to be hurt by turnovers. The defense has been suspect at times but with Pike likely out, this should allow the Cardinals to bend but not break. This game means more to Louisville and they should have many fans since this is only a 100-mile jaunt. I do not see an upset here, but points do look attractive. Cincinnati 31, Louisville 20.
4 Unit Play. Take Under 43 in Minnesota @ Ohio State Top Totals Play.
The Gophers were exposed last week at Penn State, losing 20-0 in a snow storm. Ohio State had a shocking loss to Purdue in Columbus last week, but we fully expect their defense to bounce back in a big way playing their second straight home game. Gopher QB Weber has not been himself of late, throwing for just 74 yards against Purdue two weeks ago (2 interceptions) and 101 yards last week at Penn State (1 interception). Because of this, the Gophers best player, WR Eric Decker has not been a factor and I expect this team to lose for the fourth time in six games.
QB Pryor has also been figured out and teams are starting to make him beat them with his arm and he has not been up to the task. He has eight interceptions on the season and he has only played seven games. Without RB Beanie Wells, this is not the same Buckeye team and expect them to struggle on offense yet again in a battle of defense. We will not worry if OSU can cover this big number and just collect with the under. Ohio State 27, Minnesota 10.
4 Unit Play. Take Boise State -24½ over Hawaii
We will continue to pick against Hawaii until it backfires. Just look at their injury report and the Warriors would be better off if this game were played at a medical center. As for Boise State, it is just business as usual. They will likely run the table in the WAC as they continue to rack up points and yardage in each game. Blowout wins are their only chance to get into the BCS Title Game. Hawaii cannot stop the run and playing their third straight quarterback makes them largely ineffective in the passing game. This game will be over by halftime in a rout. Boise State 51, Hawaii 17.
WAYNE ROOT
COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR
BYU
Brandon Lang
50 Dime - Duke Blue Devils
15 Dime - Kansas Jayhawks
15 Dime - Washington Huskies
50 DIME - DUKE BLUE DEVILS - I know it's hard for people to accept Duke as nothing more than a basketball school but trust me folks, it's becoming a football school right before your very eyes. And the reason why is David Cutcliffe. If you don't know who he is then allow me to introduce him to you. He was Peyton Manning's offensive coordinator at Tennessee and he was Eli's head coach at Ole Miss. The man knows how to coach offense. The Duke passing attack is the 8th best passing attack in the country and coming off a bye week facing a Maryland defense ranked 67th defending the air game, well let's just say Cutcliffe will be flat out dialed in on how to attack this young secondary of Maryland having 2 weeks to prepare. I had this team when they went into NC State as a 16 point underdog and not only won the game outright but they won it outright by 3 touchdowns. Duke has the better offense, the better defense, and without question the better QB in Thaddeus Lewis, and the better coach and not a single ounce of doubt in my mind they win this game by 14 points or more. Maryland can't get out of their way offensively ranked 88th in the country but even more alarming that that, how about 20 turnovers in 7 games this year. They can't hold on to the football. When you start turning the ball over 5 times at home to Rutgers, 4 times to Middle Tennessee State and Virginia, well let's just say it's time to call it a year. Another problem facing this young Maryland team today is this is only their 3rd road game of the year having lost the first two by an average margin of 25 points. This game today is a game about 2 teams heading in opposite directions. Duke is on the rise while Maryland is on the fall and they will be waving bye to each other as they pass each other on the ladder of success. with Duke being the team on the rise. All about Duke having all the success they want through the air versus a Maryland team that quite frankly can't get out of their own way.
50 Dime Winner Duke.
15 DIME - KANSAS JAYHAWKS - Motivation. Will Bob Stoopes be able to motivate his team to play this game today off the loss to Texas and BCS dreams gone? My answer is no. Kansas is in a great spot here catching a boat load of points at home against a team deflated and playing with a backup QB. You couldn't ask for a better spot for Kansas to get the Sooners than they get today. The offenses match up very well with each other as the Sooners come in #15 in the country while Kansas comes in #16 so there will be some points scored. However, with losses to BYU and Texas on a neutral field and the loss to Miami/Florida on the road, this Oklahoma team is 0-3 away from Norman this year. Listen, no doubt about it, Kansas got caught looking ahead to this game last week at Colorado and they paid for it dearly but now with that out of the way, this game means everything to them and they have the talent to compete. I just don't believe Oklahoma will be able to run away from Kansas in this game and I will gladly grab a full touchdown with the Jayhawks today.
15 Dime Dog Shocker - KANSAS
15 DIME - WASHINGTON HUSKIES - They were good to me over USC and I will go to the well with them here. I know Oregon has been putting up some great numbers but I truly believe the linemaker has over adjusted the line here based on public perception of this Oregon team. They shouldn't have beaten Utah at home but the QB of the Utah imploded in the 4th quarter and handed them the win. Yes, they hammered a flat CAL team who didn't show up because they were already mentally facing USC at home the next week and last week UCLA turned it over 3 times losing by 14. This Washington team is good folks and they have been competitive in every game this year with exception of their game at Stanford but who could blame them in that one coming off the upset of USC the week before. The bottom line is you are getting great value with the Huskies and it's value I will not pass up and it wouldn't suprise me if they stepped up and delivered the outright win just like they did over USC. In a game I feel will go down to the wire and is without question a single digit game, I will gladly back the juicy home dog to bark loudly today.
15 Dime dog Shocker - WASHINGTON
FREE SELECTION - MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS
Street Rosenthal
*500 LSU -7
*300 Miami -4
*200 Texas -13
*200 Kansas State -4
*200 Duke -4
Bob Balfe
Vanderbilt +13.5 over South Carolina
South Carolina starts hot every year and does a 180 as the season comes to a close. Last year Vandy won by 7 at home and will be facing a difficult South Carolina Defense. Both teams have great defenses and I just don’t see how South Carolina will win in a blowout. The Gamecocks have a few injuries on offense. Neither team has a powerhouse offense. This should be a defensive battle. The public is all over South Carolina. Look for a close game take Vandy.
Texas -12 over Missouri
Texas is 6-0 this season and want to keep their title hopes alive against a Missouri team that got to much credit to early in the season. Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert has shown he is a talent young QB, but should not be compared to Chase Daniels yet. Gabbert is playing with a hurt ankle and Texas will be looking to knock the QB out of the game for two weeks in a row. Texas has a better offense and a better defense and should win and cover with ease. Take the Longhorns.
TCU -2.5 over BYU
TCU brings a great rushing game and a better rushing defense into this game. Max Hall and BYU were rocked last year against TCU and I do not see that much has changed except for the face TCU is better this year then last year. TCU proved they can win big road games as they won at Virginia and Clemson this year. BYU is a great team, but they have shown flaws and have gotten to much credit for beating Oklahoma a 3-3 team. Look for TCU to play a great defensive game to get the win and cover.
Stanford -6.5 over Arizona State
Stanford looked as if they were going to compete for the PAC 10 Title, but has faded in the past few weeks and now are just trying to make a bowl game. Make now mistake about it, Stanford is for real and will play well at home. Arizona State rocked the Cardinals two years in a row yet are a decent size underdog. What's that tell you? If the Cardinals make a bowl game they will have to win tonight. Take the Cardinals.
Yankees -1.5 over Angels +110
Pettitte/Saunders
BRYAN LEONARD
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BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR!
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Indiana at Northwestern
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The new and improved Hoosiers continue to get no respect in the betting marketplace despite posting a 4-2 spread record. Last week they beat Illinois at home as a 3 1/2 point underdog 27-14, outgaining the Fighting Illini by 1.1 yards per play. Indiana has played six games against FBS competition and only produced one poor effort, the 47-7 loss at Virginia. But keep in mind, that trip came right after back to back match-ups against Michigan and Ohio State. It was in the heart of Big 10 play and the Hoosiers simply didn't have the needed focus for that game. Indiana has produced a yards per play advantage against every FBS opponent except Akron and Ohio State. That includes a 6.6 to 5.0 advantage against Michigan. In the Zips game they got off to a big early lead and Akron was forced to pass more than they wanted, while Indiana just ate up the clock on the ground. The underdog in this series has cashed 5 of the last 6 meetings. The last four meetings have resulted in regulation margins of 4, 3, 0 and 0. This series has been so tight that two of the last four games had to go to overtime to decide them. Northwestern has virtually no running game which means they cannot take time off the clock when protecting a lead. That means the backdoor is always wide open with the Wildcats. It also doesn't help that the defense has really suffered key injuries the past few weeks, making this one-dimensional team really suspect. How bad has the offense been for the Wildcats? Against six FBS foes they have surpassed 5 yards per play just once, in a 37-34 loss to Syracuse. The last three weeks they have a plus 7 turnover margin yet have only averaged 19 points per game. Northwestern is an amazing 4-17 ATS as home favorites dating all the way back to 2001. This year they are 0-2 laying points at Ryan Field Stadium, giving Eastern Michigan 22 in a 3 point victory and laying 17 to Miami Ohio in a 10 point win. They managed just 21 1/2 points per game against those two weak MAC stop units. Indiana is the better team in this game and we fully expect the Hoosiers to win this one outright. PLAY INDIANA
LINE MOVER TOTAL DOMINATION
Ball State at Eastern Michigan
The Cardinals have struggled offensively all season surpassing 19 points just twice all year. But upon closer inspection we see that in those two games they averaged just 3.5 and 3.9 yards per play. Now starting quarterback Kelly Page is out for the season with a thumb injury and fifth year senior Tanner Justice takes over. Justice enters this game with a disappointing quarterback rating of 88.88 with a 0 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio. Ball State has a freshman signal caller Aaron Mershman who would normally be the backup but coach Parrish doesn't want to take off his redshirt. Therefore if Justice gets injured the team will go to the Wildcat offense in which they haven't attempted a pass this season. That means plenty of running the football and taking time off the clock.
Eastern Michigan is also down to a backup signal caller and as expected they have struggled to put points on the board since starter Andy Schmitt was lost for the season. They were going with last years backup Kyle McMahon but last week they played some with freshman Alex Gillett behind center. Neither of the two backups has thrown a touchdown pass this season and we would really expect English to be conservative here. Considering that in the last three games they have scored 6, 8 and 12 points he doesn't have many options.
Defensively the Eagles are improving and they are really stepping down in class this week. After facing the likes of Michigan and Central Michigan on their schedule they finally face a team they can match up against. Ball State's defense has struggled all year mostly because they continue to let the opposition start drives with excellent starting field position. But that likely won't be the case this week as Eastern Michigan simply doesn't have the offensive talent to exploit this weak Ball State secondary. The Cardinals are allowing 8.37 yards per pass attempt but the Eagles only produce 4.18 yppa and that included Andy Schmidt making the calls.
With two teams desperate for a victory and both playing backup signal callers we look for very conservative game plans. Lots of running the football and keeping turnovers to a minimum. That keeps the clock ticking and provides us with a quick game. PLAY UNDER
5DimeSports
5 DIME PLAY OF THE DAY
TCU @ BYU
Take TCU -2.5
To say the least this will be a fun game to watch. TCU's explosive defensive speed will be a major play in this game and will pressure QB Max Hall. Not to mention Hall has thrown 10 interceptions to go along with his 16 TD passes. Playing against the number 3 defense will cause Hall to be tentative in the pocket and force throws. TCU is ranked 8 against the pass allowing only 156.8 passing yards per game. Looking at TCU's offense we have QB Andy Dalton with 8 TD passes and 3 Int's. Then to top it off TCU has Joesph Turner (RB) who is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and owns 7 TDs. BYU is ranked 90th against the pass and 21st against the run. Looking at the score of two games that both team have played the same team (Colorado St.). TCU beat them 44-6, while BYU beat them 42-23. TCU is only allowing 13.6 points per game, while BYU is allowing 22.7 points per game. BYU is also beat up at the momment with 6 players either out indefinitely or out for the season and 6 players questionable for Saturday's game. TCU has 3 players questionable for Saturday that wont have any impact on the game. I predict this game to be close in the beginning, maybe even be down early, but the defense will prevail and come through in the end.
igz1 sports
3* UAB vs Marshal Under 53
Steve Duemig
25 Dime Ohio State
Anyone care to tell me how Minnesota is going to score here. OSU Defense is still very strong and they will show it this week against a hapless Gopher offense that has not td passes in last two games and are ranked 114th nationally on offense. Buckeyes having some offensive problems of their own but will make it right this week. Tressel won't let them quit and Pryor is fresh off the couch after his counseling session with King James. Plus the public has done us a big favor and bet this line down to where it makes total sense to jump back on the Buckeyes.
10 Dime Virginia
Tech has the sperior offense in this game but as we all know it is on the ground which is a huge difference than if it were through the air. Virginia has the better defense by far!!!! The Cavs offensively have struggled early on learning their new offense but is showing significant signs of improvement of late. Tech is coming off of a huge program win over VA TCH last week and that is what the public is seeing and betting on but Virgina is very tough at home and has the D to stop Tech in this low scoring game.
10 Dime Kansas
Injuries to two key offensive players will limit Ok offense in this one. Both Bradford and Murray, their all world RB will be missing from this game. OK strength in their defense andd they are still relatively stout there, however Kansas has some major offensive weapons of their own in this game in QB Ressing and a great set of wideouts and a good rushing attack thst is healthy for the first time this year. The Fighting Mangino's get the call here to cover.
Freddy Wills
Take Georgia Tech -5.5 (2.5 Dime play) (1-5 scale)
Normally this is a classic let down game for a team like Georgia Tech coming off a huge win against Virginia Tech last week, but this is not the case as they remember very well that in the same situation last year they lost to Virginia. Georgia Tech will look to go on the road and win as favorites and I think they do so by a TD. The key has been Josh Nesbitt and this rushing offense featuring Dwyer, Allen, and Roddy Jones along with the very big and physical Damaryous Thomas catching the few passed thrown his way to keep any defense honest.
Virginia has made a nice run lately winning 3 in a row after opening 0-3. This is the team that lost to William and Mary, but now Al Groh has them back on track. I'm not buying it though because their last three opponents average offense is 90th combined and here they will now face the 31st ranked offense. So is this defense for Virginia as good as they have looked or a product of who they have played this season an average offense ranked at 65th? I'd say it's a little bit of both, but the weakness seems to be against the run and they will have their hands full at home against Georgia Tech. Virginia is definitely an improved team, but not enough to stay with Georgia Tech who has been getting it done on offense all year long against quality opponents. What is worst for Virginia is their 107th ranked offense they can't run and they can't pass and Jameel Sewell their QB has a banged up ankle and will be chased around by Morgan who has 7.5 sacks this year. Virginia is ranked 118th in the nation in sacks allowed.
Lenny Del Genio
Big Ten Game of the Year
Penn St. -4.5
The Experts Guaranteed Selections
MAC CONFERENCE MONSTER BOMB OF THE YEAR
OHIO -9.5