ASA
3* Air Force
3* Michigan
3* Auburn
RAS
All 1 Unit
Kentucky
Arkansas St
Ohio U
Kentucky Under
Arkansas St Over
Utah St Under
Gold Sheet LTS
Top: Indiana, Air Force
Reg: W Michigan, Oklahoma St, Washington, Stanford
Greg Roberts
5* Stanford -6.5
4* C Michigan -9
3* S Carolina -13
3* Alabama -14
Sammy Jankus Reverse Barometer
Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups
Texas A&M at Texas Tech
3* TEXAS A&M +21.5
You are so gonna hate me for doing this but I can’t pass up a bonafide gift-horse BLOWOUT. The Red Raiders have won and covered three straight in dominating fashion while the Maggots have pulled a reverse hat-trick… three whippings courtesy of a ‘defense’ that was gashed for 48 PPG in those losses, including an unthinkable 62 points to Kansas State! Red Raider head coach Mike Leach has rallied his team nicely after back-to-back losses to Texas and Houston, and they’re once again playing like a team that smells blood. I think Texas Tech will batter, shatter, cream and ream the hapless visitors en route to a 35-point demolition – so your play is on TEXAS A&M.
The Duke's Sports
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Northwestern (-5) 2 Units
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NW is looking to avenge last year's 21-19 loss at Indiana. The home team has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings. And NW has shown resiliency off losses at 5-1 ATS and sport an impressive 11-5 ATS mark after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing. Indiana, on the other hand, has experienced trouble on the road in this spread range at 0-5 ATS, and they're just 2-7 ATS off an ATS win. We like the Wildcats' defense and their trigger man - Kafka.
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UAB vs. Marshall
Play: UAB +7
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When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Road team - Vs Division Opponent - Last 5 years - Coming off a Loss over Southeastern loss opponent - Coming off a 28-31 point loss; the Road Team is 7-3-0 ATS in this role the last 5 years. Take UAB.
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Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia +6
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Georgia Tech coming off a HUGE win over Virginia Tech and could be in for a letdown in this one. Georgia Tech is allowing 36 points per game on the road this year. Virginia is 3-0 SU their last 3 games. Virginia is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS at home vs Georgia Tech since 1992. Yellow Jackets are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. Yellow Jackets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Cavaliers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Cavaliers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog. Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Home team is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Yellow Jackets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Virginia. We'll play Virginia for 5 units today!
Marc Lawrence
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TCU vs. BYU
Play BYU +2.5
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A big Mountain West Conference clash kicks off at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo Saturday evening when BYU hosts TCU. Last year the Cougars opened the season 6-0 and appeared ready to become a BCS bowl crasher when they invaded Fort Worth to take on the Horned Frogs. After the dust settled, TCU killed those dreams with a 32-7 loss. As a result revenge rears its head today, a role in which BYU has excelled, going 10-2 SU and 12-0 ATS as a dog of less than 10 points when playing with conference revenge dating back to 1980. In addition, Cougars head coach Bronco Mendenhall is 2-0 SU and ATS in this roles with BYU. He is also 23-4 SU at home, including 15-2 in conference play with only one loss by more than one point. On the flip side, TCU coach Gary Patterson has developed a black-and-white home/road dichotomy, going 22-8 ATS in home game but only 12-20-1 ATS away in conference play. In fact, in his college head coaching career, Patterson is 0-5 SU and ATS as a visitor when facing an opponent with a win percentage of more than .800. The clincher is this system from our powerful database. It tells us to: Play On any college home pick or dog off a victory with a win percentage greater than .750 from Game Six out versus an opponent off an ATS win of 9 or more points who won it's last game by less than 50 points, if the home dog won 6 or more regular season games last year. That because these home teams are 14-0-1 ATS in this roles since 1980. Stay at home with the Cougars in their perfect payback mode here tonight. We recommend a 4-unit play on BYU.
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37-0 ATS College Football Three Most Valuable Plays!
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Play On: USC, Louisiana Monroe and Michigan
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The Trojans, our No. 1 College Favorite play, takes the field with revenge on their minds from a costly conference loss last year as a 24-point road favorite suffered at Oregon State last season. It proved to be USC's only loss of the season and denied them an opportunity to play in the BCS title game. In his career with the Trojans, head coach Pete Carroll is 18-0 SU and 15-3 ATS at home against greater than .610 opposition when the Trojans are not undefeated, including 10-0 SU and ATS when playing off a win of 42 or less points. In addition, the Beavers are 1-17 ATS in SU losses against avenging opponents. Lay the points with Southern Cal.
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The Warhawks, our No.1 College Underdog play, takes on Kentucky with the Wildcats still celebrating last week's stunning win over Auburn, their first win over the Tigers since 1966. These same two teams met in 2006 when Monroe lost, 42-40, as 19.5-point dogs. With that we note Kentucky is 0-9 ATS at home off a conference game versus a more than .400 opponent seeking revenge. In addition Monroe is 4-0 ATS with revenge off a win of more than four points against SEC competition while Monroe head coach Charlie Weatherbie is 5-0 ATS in his career as a road dog when his team owns a winning record. Grab the points in this Wildcat letdown with with La-Monroe.
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The Wolverines, our No. 1 College Revenge play, hosts Penn State at the Big House with revenge on their minds from a 29-point loss suffered at Happy Valley last season. With that we note UM coach Rich Rodriguez is 4-0 ATS in his head coaching career with conference revenge as a dog or favorite of less than seven points off a double-digit win. In addition, PSU is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against an avenging opponent off a win the last four years and 1-4 SU and ATS as a favorite in this series. The Lions are also 0-5 SU in Ann Arbor, with the last win coming in 1996. Look for the Wolverines to get their revenge here today. We recommend 3-unit plays on USC, Louisiana Monroe and Michigan.
Lenny Del Genio
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25* Big 10 Game of the Year
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Penn State vs. Michigan
Play: Penn St. -4.5
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Apparently, the oddsmakers either didn't watch or have forgotten about last year's 46-17 drubbing of Michigan by Penn State, a game that saw the Nittany Lions score 39 unanswered points (and the 46 points scored were a PSU series record), or they never would have opened the line this low. And despite the strides made in Rich Rodriguez's second season in Ann Arbor, the talent gap has not closed all that much. Failed Syracuse HC Greg Robinson was brought as the new DC, but the Wolverines defense has allowed 400+ total yards to half of its lined oppoents, all of them at home, including such "luminaries" as Western and Eastern Michigan. The offense clearly has a long way to go as well with the young QB's combining to turn the ball over five times at Iowa, the only quality defense they've faced thus far. Now they face an even better defense this week. With Sean Lee healthy, the Penn State LB corps has to rank amongst the best in the country. The Nittany Lions have allowed all of two field goals in the first half this season, only one 3rd quarter TD and three of the four 4th Quarter TD's allowed came when PSU led by 21 or more points. Sure the schedule has been soft, but when you are that dominant on that side of the ball, the numbers do matter. Big experience edge at QB in favor of the visitors here as Penn St QB Clark is 4-1 ATS on the Big 10 road while Michigan QB Forcier has never won a road game in league play and is likely to face some unfavorable down and distances that lead to turnovers here. Don't forget that before last year, HC Paterno had lost nine straight (ranked #15 or higher in 4 of those games) to the "Maize and Blue" and he still owes them more payback. Since losing to Iowa, his team won three straight (averaged 510 yards per game) by a combined 107-20, including outgaining Minnesota 464-138 in a 20-0 shutout last week. Michigan has lost eight of its last 15 games in the "Big House" outright, including near escapes over Notre Dame and Indiana this year. Don't forget Forcier suffered a concussion in the Iowa loss, from which he has fully recovered, however, HC Rodriguez still wants the far less effective Robinson (just 19 years old) to see time regardless. Bad move against a Nittany Lions D, which is tied with Florida for tops in the nation in scoring defense (8.7 PPG) and eighth in rushing (75.4 YPG). Passing isn't a very good option for the Wolverines either as no Michigan WR has more than 20 catches on the year. Penn State is our 25* Big 10 Game of the Year.
Freddy Wills
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Take Georgia Tech -5.5 (2.5 Dime play) (1-5 scale)
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Normally this is a classic let down game for a team like Georgia Tech coming off a huge win against Virginia Tech last week, but this is not the case as they remember very well that in the same situation last year they lost to Virginia. Georgia Tech will look to go on the road and win as favorites and I think they do so by a TD. The key has been Josh Nesbitt and this rushing offense featuring Dwyer, Allen, and Roddy Jones along with the very big and physical Damaryous Thomas catching the few passed thrown his way to keep any defense honest.
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Virginia has made a nice run lately winning 3 in a row after opening 0-3. This is the team that lost to William and Mary, but now Al Groh has them back on track. I'm not buying it though because their last three opponents average offense is 90th combined and here they will now face the 31st ranked offense. So is this defense for Virginia as good as they have looked or a product of who they have played this season an average offense ranked at 65th? I'd say it's a little bit of both, but the weakness seems to be against the run and they will have their hands full at home against Georgia Tech. Virginia is definitely an improved team, but not enough to stay with Georgia Tech who has been getting it done on offense all year long against quality opponents. What is worst for Virginia is their 107th ranked offense they can't run and they can't pass and Jameel Sewell their QB has a banged up ankle and will be chased around by Morgan who has 7.5 sacks this year. Virginia is ranked 118th in the nation in sacks allowed.
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Take Minnesota +17 (2-Dime Play)(1-5 scale)
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This is just plain and simple too many points for Ohio State who is just not very good offensively at all. I don't see how they can cover a point total this high and I suspect it's because many are feeling that they are going to take their frustrations out on the Gophers after last weeks debacle and loss against Purdue.
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This Minnesota team was able to beat Purdue without a problem and Ohio State has gotten by offensively not playing very challenging defense thus far including an average defense that is ranked 71st in points allowed this season. Minnesota comes in at 60th and should be able to hold this team in check at least to cover the spread.
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Take Tennessee +14.5 -105 (4.5 Dime POD) (1-5scale)
Very close to a 5-dime play this weekend, but we'll go with the 4.5Dime play. I really like this play a lot as 69% of the public is backing Alabama at home and the line that opened at -16 has moved down to 14.5. First of all I still have not been impressed with Alabama's offense behind Mark Ingram. There is going to be a game where they are going to have to prove that they can throw the ball and I think this might be that game. They have faced an average 62nd ranked defensive attack Alabama has. That includes an average rush defense of 86th which has gotten them their 9th nation rushing offense rank. Don't get me wrong this offensive line and running game is as good as they come, but let's not get carried away that your QB is still going to have to win games and I like McElroy, but just not here against Tennessee off a bye. You give Monte Kiffin an extra week to prepare defensively he's going to come with an attack that will create problems.
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The defense of Tennesse has been great, and in their last game the offense exploded against a good Georgia team. In my opinion Tennessee has had a much tougher schedule and have played better defenses and should be able to move the ball better than South Carolina and Mississippi did the last two weeks. Tenn comes in with the 48th ranked offense, better rankings than both South Carolina and Miss who really played fine defensive games against Alabama and really stayed in the game despite losing by 2 TD in each. I really like Tenn to do what both those teams could not and this game should be decided by a TD or a Field Goal in my opinion.
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The key to the game. It's easy to say this is the key to the game because Alabama's pass rush is the best in the country and Tennessee has done a great job protecting their QB Crompton. If they can continue the momentum they had against Georgia they could get the upset and crush Alabama's national championship dreams. Crompton has really come alive with 200+ yards passing in each of his last three games including 8TD and 2 INT. Look for Tennessee to have a game plan for Ingram as they are ranked 32nd in rush defense and third in the SEC while Alabama is ranked 9th and 3rd in the SEC in rushing offense, but as I mentioned Alabama has faced nobody that can stop the run like Tennessee can. Here are the numbers in terms of defensive rushing ranks nationally for Alabama opponents, 76, 116, 96, 69, 102, 72, 74. A defensive game is what this will be and more than 2 TDs is just way too much to give a solid defense coming off the bye trying to make statements under first year head coach Lane Kiffin and his father an all time great defensive coordinator in Monte Kiffin.
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Take Boston College +7.5 (4-Dimes)(1-5 scale)
I'm going with Boston College as Notre Dame continues to impressed me time and time again. They will get a little bit of a break here against a team that on the season does not have the best offensive ranks and Notre Dame has faced some top notch offenses or at least made them look that way. However, BC is very solid defensively and this could be a different type of game for Notre Dame as Boston College seems to be coming alive at the right time.
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BC will look to run on the Irish behind Montel Harris who is coming off a record breaking 264 yards and 5 TD effort against a defense that had been ranked 14th against the run in NC State mind you. Now he'll go up against the Irish who are ranked 64th. Expect BC to play keep away all day long with their balanced offense. I expect Shinskie to have a big game with the balanced attack mainly because every QB has had a big day against Notre Dame and now that he has developed a chemistry with WR Colin Larmond BC's offense is not weak any longer and they proved that last week against NC State when they won 53-20. We enjoyed Boston College last week as our POD runner up and we'll enjoy them one more time as we look to go a perfect 3-0 fading the Irish this year!
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I understand this will be the best passing offense Boston College has faced Claussen is just very efficient and he is the MVP of this team. However, this is the 2nd best defense Notre Dame has faced (USC being the first). BC has faced three Top 27 passing offense attacks and in all three BC came out with victories and I expect something similar on Saturday from the Eagles as Notre Dame has had the luxury of facing very bad defenses especially in pass defense as the average opponent had an 81 pass defense.
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Take Wake Fores +3 (3-Dime play)
Wake Forest got Navy on revenge in their bowl game last year and since trailing in their loss at half time last year 17-0 in the regular season Wake Forest have out scored Navy 46-26. The ability to stop the run really has not been their, but Wake has been able to give it back to Navy and this years Wake Forest teams is angry off a dissapointing loss to Clemson. Wake is a more balanced offense this year and will give Navy troubles in the passing game in my opinion. Skinner should have a good game against a defense that is used to facing an average passing offense ranked 82 in the country which explaines their 40th ranked pass defense. The only team they faced inside the top 64 was 16th ranked SMU who led 21-7 at half time last week, but failed as Navy won 38-35. I don't anticipate that to happen to Wake as they have more of a running game to run the clock out once they go up than SMU's 112th ranked rushing offense.
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Bottom line Navy really has not faced much competition with an average 65th ranked defense, and a 83rd offense going up against them. Navy has gone three weeks without recording the sack and that has been Skinners problem having the time to find his receivers. Navy's inability to get to the passer will be the reason they fall. Skinner gets the ball to playmaking receivers Devon Brown and Marshall Williams, and Givens to win this game by 10 poins.
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Take South Carolina -13 (4-Dime POD)(1-5 scale)
Going with the Gamecocks for lots of reasons. Did you see the way their defense has played against Alabama, and against Mississippi? Well this team is good and you can't pass off them, which is a huge problem for Vanderbilt anyway who has transitioned to the spread offense which will leave standout DE Eric Norwood licking his chops to get back in the backfield. Expect a big game for the All-American as he has been held in check the last few weeks. What will help Norwood even more is Vandy's tackle Thomas Welch is out with a bummed ankle. I expect South Carolina to get a lot of three and outs as they look to revenge their recent history with Vanderbilt that has seen them lose twice. However, this is a Vanderbilt team that loss at home to Miss State?
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I mentioned the two game win streak for Vanerbilt and it comes down to two things. Turnovers, USC turned the ball over 7 times in the last couple of years, but this team has only committed 9 TO's in 8 games. I really like what Stephen Garcia has brought to the table this year and although he'll be missing his WR Moe Brown he has a collective group of tall receivers that will have a distinct size advantage against the Commodores. Their three starters average the height of 6 foot 4. The issue for Vanderbilt has been red zone production and it won't improve against a good defensive team here on Saturday on the road. Vanderbilt is scoring just 68% of the time they get into the end zone and only 40% result in TD's That means that 60% of the time they get inside the 20 they leave with 0-3 points. This is way down from last season's 66% TD rate and 89% scoring rate.
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Bottom line South Carolina will dominate time of possession and play solid defense winning this game by 17+ as Vanderbilt has lost the time of possession battle by 7 minutes per game.
Mike Lineback
Arkansas / Mississippi Over 52.5
Washington +10.5
KirkWins
4* Syracuse -10
4* Texas -12.5
3* Yankees -175
Ethan Law
Manhattan Syndicate
UL Monroe +14
Playbook
Play - Michigan State
Edges - Spartans: 6-1 ATS vs undefeated opponent and 6-2 ATS home vs. conference revenge. Dantonio: 8-2 ATS if not unbeaten vs unbeaten opponent, including 4-0 ATS at home. Hawkeyes: 1-5 away pick or favorite if undefeated.