Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, October 30,2010

AC Sports Advisors

20* Michigan ML -142

David Malinsky

4* SOUTH CAROLINA over TENNESSEE

We have written the Tennessee tale a couple of teams already this season – three head coaches in as many years has taken a drastic toll on the roster, not only leaving the Volunteers short-handed, but also with plenty of confusion as yet another new playbook is put in place. Now as losses and injuries take their toll there isn’t any way for things to get better down the stretch, and we see this matchup as being particularly ugly, with Derek Dooley and his limited team in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Tennessee does not have a strength. The Vols can not run the ball to slow games down, only reaching 100 rushing yards once in the last five games, and much of that due to a 59-yard TD burst by Tauren Poole vs. Alabama last week. Without a run threat QB’s Matt Simms and Tyler Bray are sitting ducks in the pocket, with the offense #113 in the nation in sacks allowed. A young OL is drastically overmatched, and it all gets worse here without starting FB Kevin Cooper, a 5th-year SR who brought some leadership and experience, but has been suspended by Dooley. That forces FR Channing Fugate into the starting lineup, and exacerbates issues for an attack that has scored just seven points in the 3rd or 4th quarter over the last four games. And when the offense does not move the defense wears down, which is part of why they have been out-scored by an awful 120-19 in the 3rd and 4th quarter of lined games. Now with starting S Marsalis Teague unlikely to go with a toe injury, it only gets worse on that side of the ball.

So why do we still find line value despite those seemingly obvious issues? It is because South Carolina has been much better than the scoreboards have shown in SEC play. Imagine being 3-2 and in control of the Eastern Division of the league despite being -7 in turnovers in those five league affairs? In their two home conference games the Gamecocks beat Alabama and Georgia both in double figures, controlling the line of scrimmage to a significant 299-97 in rushing yardage - each of those offenses had their worst rushing game of the season. That defense can throttle the limited Tennessee attack, and can generate some prime opportunities for game-changing plays with a pass rush that is #1 in the SEC, and #5 in the nation in sacks.

But that defense is not the major story right now – instead it is Stephen Garcia and all of those weapons on offense coming together. Few teams in the nation have the playmakers at WR and RB that the Gamecocks bring, and instead of having to create plays now Garcia only has to execute what is available. And that is plenty. He has gone on an amazing run of 51-71-737 on the road the past two games, with four TD’s, taking him to #5 in the nation in passing efficiency. And the team just had a 100-yard rusher, and two 100-yard receivers, in a game for the first time in the history of the program, despite top RB Marcus Lattimore not even playing. Lattimore is back to 100 percent this week, which combines with Brian Maddox for a one-two overland punch that can wear this fading defense down, and Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley are the kind of physical receivers that Tennessee has struggled with all season. It leads to a complete mismatch in this one, and while Dooley and so many of the young Tennessee players were not around LY, the 31-13 loss these Gamecocks suffered in Knoxville was their worst of the season, and something that creates a special spark here.

Teddy Covers

S. Miss Over
Pittsburgh
Mississippi
Texas
Stanford

Red Zone Sports

3* Southern Cal +7

Tim Trushel

USC
Air Force
N Texas

Evan Altemus

3 Units Duke +13.5

Navy played one of the biggest games of their season last week and were able to get a win against Notre Dame in dominant manner. The Irish were banged up and playing a Navy team that they didn't get up for at all. Navy put everything they had into that game and are riding high this week. The Naval Academy is always reminding the football players of how good they are after these big wins, and there is none bigger for them than beating Notre Dame. Now they return home this week to play a game against lowly Duke, one of the worst teams on their schedule. However, Navy's team isn't their best this season and they really haven't blown out any opponent they have faced. The Midshipmen are notorious for playing up or down to the level of their competition. Duke is horrible no doubt. However, these two teams have faced two of the same opponents this season in Wake Forest and Maryland. Navy beat Wake Forest by 1 point, while Duke only lost to Wake by 6 points. Navy lost to Maryland by 3 points, while Duke lost to them by 5 points. Also, Duke has already faced the triple option offense this season in their game against Army. They held Army to only 3.8 yards per carry in that game, which isn't too bad. However, that game will make it much easier for them to defend Navy's offense because of the experience against it. Look for Duke to keep this game close throughout and cover the inflated point spread.

Joseph D'Amico

Toledo Rockets vs. Eastern Mich
Play: Toledo Rockets -10

Toledo is one strong win from bowl eligibility. They are undefeated in MAC play. The Rockets have won and covered 7 of the L8 over the Eagles, including the L3 in a row. The Toledo offense will have no problems moving the ball against an EMU defense that gives up 44 PPG. The Rockets come into this matchup winning their L2 over Kent State and Ball State. In each of those games, Toldeo has controlled the line of scrimmage. After this contest, the Rockets will have a week off then a matchup with rival Northern Illinois. This is a great confidence-builder before that showdown. EMU is just horrible, going 1-7 SU and being outscored by an average of 23.1 PPG. They are 0-3 at home and have gotten some beatings over the season that has taken their toll on the squad. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS their L5 games played in Eastern Michigan and 9-3 ATS their L12 following a ATS loss. The eagles are 0-4 ATS their L4 vs. teams with a winning record and 4-14 ATS their L18 games played at home. Take Toledo. Thank you.

ASA

4* Iowa Hawkeyes
3* USC Trojans
3* Texas Longhorns

JIM FEIST

Florida
Nevada
Hawaii
Oklahoma
Indiana
Michigan State
Mississippi
Kentucky Over
Kentucky
USC
Oregon State
Kansas State

ETHAN LAW

3% DUKE +13
2% IOWA -6.5
2% MISSOURI +7.5
2% NORTH TEXAS +6
2% IDAHO +15

CONFIRMED SATURDAY MANHATTAN SYNDICATE SELECTIONS:
$45,000 WAGER on AKRON +29.5
$40,000 WAGER on MINNESOTA +25.5

WISEGUY EDGE

Important Note - Please read this carefully. WiseGuy Edge Plays are worth twice as much as double plays. Please do not overvalue the big plays and undervalue the normal plays. Our double plays are premium plays and should be played at 5% of your bankroll. The WiseGuy Edge Plays are not Locks of the year or 100 unit bets. They are simply stronger than our regular plays.

WiseGuy Edge Play - 10% bankroll
Double Play - 5% bankroll

+2.5 Florida - WiseGuy Edge Play

Analysis - The annual cocktail party is usually one of the biggest games of the year but neither Florida or Georgia have met expectations so far. The Gators (4-3,2-4 ATS) have struggled adjusting to life without Tim Tebow and have not been able to find any rhythm offensively. With two weeks off to prepare and rest up a bit, the Florida defense that’s been stunningly inconsistent this year, but is still allowing under 300 yards per game, should be able to take away the Georgia passing game. Georgia (4-4, 4-4 ATS) is finally starting to play better and has won three in a row. QB Aaron Murray has been efficient and effective, but that’s partly been a function of a running game that’s taking all the pressure off. Florida might be having problems, but the pass defense has been fantastic (although, LSU, shockingly, found a way to make it work) allowing just 167 yards per game while ranking 11th in the nation in pass efficiency defense. The Gators are going to stack the line and force Murray to win the game though the air, and while he’ll win a few battles, the consistency isn’t going to be there like it’s been over the last few weeks. Offensively, the Gator attack should get a little bit of life with suspended star Chris Rainey possibly back in the mix. Look for Florida to play it's best game of the year and make it three in a row against Georgia.

Projected Score Georgia 17 Florida 24

-23.5 Oklahoma - Double Play

Analysis - After becoming another national championship front-runner to lose in recent weeks, the 11th-ranked Sooners look to bounce back with a third straight home win over struggling Colorado in the rivals' final matchup as Big 12 members Saturday night. Oklahoma is coming off a 36-27 loss at then-No. 18 Missouri last Saturday. The Sooners (6-1, 3-4 ATS) followed Ohio State and Alabama, both No. 1 in the AP poll, to lose over a span of three straight Saturdays. The defeat dropped Oklahoma to ninth in the BCS standings. Landry Jones had thrown three interceptions in the previous six games, but had two against the Tigers. Still, he's thrown for 637 yards and six touchdowns in the last two contests. Colorado (3-4, 3-4 ATS) is coming off a close loss to Texas Tech and has allowed an average of 190.0 yards on the ground the last four games. The Buffaloes could face a more difficult challenge without leading tackler Jon Major. Though Oklahoma yielded season highs for points and total yards (486) against Missouri, its defense could be in for a better effort against a Colorado squad also without injured starting quarterback Tyler Hansen(ruptured spleen). The Sooners were embarrassed in front of the entire country last week and should have plenty of motivation to play better against the Buffalos. Expect Oklahoma to bounce back and absolutely dominate Colorado in a complete rout.

Projected Score Colorado 14 Oklahoma 63

-7 Texas - Double Play

Analysis - Baylor (6-2, 4-3 ATS) enters this week with a surprising lead in its division and a ranking for the first time since 1993. Equally shocking are the struggles of the 25th-ranked Bears' next opponent. Texas (4-2, 2-5 ATS) entered this year with nine consecutive seasons of at least 10 wins, but have been humbled after dropping three of four including an embarrassing 21-28 loss to Iowa State. To keep the streak going, they'll need to win their remaining five contests and a bowl game. Baylor hopes to extend Texas' rare home losing streak to three while ending a 12-game skid to the Longhorns as the teams meet Saturday in Austin. Last week's 47-42 victory over Kansas State, though, pushed the Bears atop the Big 12 South - a half-game in front of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State - and one more win would give Baylor a program high for conference victories. Baylor hasn't won three straight since Sept. 9-22, 2007 - and has never won three straight in Big 12 play in a single season- but boasts an offense that ranks fifth nationally both overall (510.8 yards per game) and passing (314.3). The Bears have also struggled at times to keep opponents off the scoreboard and have given up at least 25 points four times. The Longhorns are capable of playing much better and should look like a different team this week. The Bears finally run out of gas and fall flat against the Horns.

Projected Score Baylor 16 Texas 34

-7 Clemson - Double Play

Analysis - Clemson (4-3, 3-3 ATS) has regrouped from a slow start and won consecutive games over Maryland and Georgia Tech, the latter earning revenge for last year’s ACC championship game defeat. They are led by QB Kyle Parker who completed 17 of 27 passes last week. They’ll hit the road, where they’ve yet to win in 2010, looking to keep faint hopes for another Atlantic Division crown alive. Boston College (2-5,1-5 ATS) has lost five games in a row are trying to recover from losing multiple starters to injury. The Eagles fell late to Maryland last week and almost pulled off the upset against Florida state two weeks ago but fell short to the Terrapins 24-21. The Eagles offense is ranked 104th nationally and will face even more pressure to score after losing two more defensive starters to injury last week. Clemson has too much talent for the Eagles and will not have any trouble moving the ball against their banged up defense. Look for the Tigers to cruise to their first road win.

Projected Score Clemson 35 Boston College 17

-7.5 Nebraska - Double Play

Analysis - After clinching their best start in 50 years, the No. 7 Tigers will try to stay unbeaten when they travel to 14th-ranked Nebraska in the schools' final matchup as Big 12 rivals Saturday. Missouri (7-0, 3-4 ATS) knocked off one nemesis last Saturday with a 36-27 upset of then-BCS leading Oklahoma. While Tigers coach Gary Pinkel gave his team one day to bask in that victory, he admitted to already thinking about the Cornhuskers hours after beating the Sooners. The win allowed Missouri climbed to sixth in the BCS standings, and a victory over Nebraska (6-1, 2-1) could push the Tigers higher. It might be more difficult for Missouri to top last week's performance, especially on offense. The Tigers gained a season-high 486 yards with 308 through the air from quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Nebraska (6-1, 3-3) is coming off a 51-41 over No. 17 Oklahoma State and got a huge performance from QB Taylor Martinez. The freshman threw for 323 yards after topping 140 just once in his first six games. Martinez also ran for a team-best 112 yards, giving him 870 this season - 10th most in FBS. The Cornhuskers face a defense that's given up at least 240 passing yards in the past four games, but is fifth nationally allowing 13.1 points per contest. This year's matchup will mark the final time the schools meet regularly as Nebraska joins the Big Ten in 2011. The Cornhuskers will try for a better performance at home than in their previous two games there. In Big 12 play, they've won seven straight road games but have dropped three of five in Lincoln, including a 20-13 defeat to Texas on Oct. 16 in which they didn't score an offensive touchdown. The Cornhuskers are looking to make up for their last home loss and are catching the Tigers at the right time. The Tigers will still be on cloud nine after knocking off #1 Oklahoma and will not be ready to play another big game. Nebraska will force Missouri out of its comfort zone and win this game by forcing multiple turnovers.

Projected Score Missouri 21 Nebraska 45

+6 Kentucky - Double Play

Analysis - Mississippi State (6-2, 4-3 ATS) is finally starting to cruise under second year coach Dan Mullen. The Bulldogs have won five straight, earning bowl eligibility for the first time since 2007, but Saturday's victory wasn't pretty. UAB outgained Mississippi State 207-103 in the first half, and briefly took a 24-23 lead after a touchdown with 10:16 remaining in the game. Kentucky (4-4, 5-3 ATS) has been up and down this season with solid wins over South Carolina and Louisville. The Wildcats are ranked 23rd nationally in offense and rely primarily on do everything QB Mike Hartline. The UK pass defense has been solid allowing just 177 yards per game through the air, and MSU’s anemic passing game isn’t going to push that envelope. LB Danny Trevathan and the UK defensive front isn’t great at getting into the backfield, and it hasn’t always been a brick wall against the run, but it did a relatively decent job against everyone but Auburn. The Wildcats wouldn’t mind making this a shootout and could do a decent job against the mediocre Bulldog secondary. Kentucky is 4-0 when it allows 28 points or fewer so expect the streak to continue to 5-0 with a win over Mississippi State.

Projected Score Kentucky 17 Mississippi State 15

+6.5 USC - Double Play

Projected Score Oregon 21 USC 31

Great Lakes Sports

4* Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than forty points in their previous game, and the Nebraska Cornhuskers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The favorite is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in this series, and the home team is a very solid 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings in this series. We look for the Nebraska Cornhuskers to grab the home ATS Win & Cover. TAKE: 4* Nebraska Cornhuskers

Kyle Hunter

5* UAB/So Miss Over 53
5* Texas Tech/Texas A&M Over 58
5* Arizona/UCLA Under 50
5* San Jose St/New Mexico St Under 47
5* Idaho/Hawaii Over 64
3* Oregon State Beavers -2.5
3* Utah Utes -7

Bobby Maxwell

600-Unit College FB Saturday Special - Oregon

Last year when these two teams met, Oregon’s team speed made it a laugher, beating the Trojans 47-20 at Autzen Stadium. I know this year they are squaring off in Los Angeles, but the team speed for the Ducks is still amazing and the defense for USC is actually worse than last year. I’ll lay the touchdown with Oregon in this one and look for them to pull away in the second half and win it by 17.

The Ducks cashed as three-point home ‘dogs last season and to this point of the year they are regarded as one of, if not, the best teams in the country. They have opened the season 7-0 (5-2 ATS) and have had 10 days to get ready for the Trojans, last playing on October 21, blowing out UCLA 60-13 as 26 ½-point home favorites.

Oregon’s offense is high-powered and will not give the USC defense time to breathe. They average 55.1 points a game, 572 yards per game and rush for 313.9 yards per contest. Defensively, the Ducks aren’t too bad either, giving up just 15.9 points a game.

The Ducks rushed for 270 yards against UCLA, led by LaMichael James’ 123 yards on 20 carries. Throw in 75 yards on eight carries with three TDs and Remene Alston Jr. is another force that will get the ball today. USC’s has had trouble tackling this season and James will shred them tonight.

Let’s talk about the points USC has given up this season, allowing 24.3 per game and more than 400 yards of total offense. The Trojans let Stanford get 37, Washington had 32, Minnesota scored 21 and Hawaii touched up the Trojans for 36. I agree that offensively, USC is playing very well and QB Matt Barkley would be a Heisman candidate if this team wasn’t on probation as he’s thrown for 20 TDs and 4 INTs.

But Barkley is going to find the going tough today against an Oregon defense that is going to come after him. The Ducks will stuff the run and force him into long third downs and make things tough on him.

USC is on ATS skids of 5-11 in Pac-10 games, 7-16 in October contests, 2-7 after a straight-up win, 2-9 after a spread cover and 3-8 on grass. Oregon brings in several positive streaks, including 19-7 in October, 5-2 as a favorite, 9-4 after a spread-cover and 13-6 after a straight-up win. In this rivalry, the favorite has cashed in five of the last six.

Play the favorite today as Oregon goes into Los Angeles and leaves with a big win.

200-Unit Big 12 Smart Play - Missouri

A week after an enormous victory over top-ranked Oklahoma, Missouri is right back in the Big 12 fire with a trip to Nebraska today, but I think the experience of winning a big game is going to carry this team to another strong performance today, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Grab the points and play Missouri to either keep this one very close down to the wire, or sneak out of town with a narrow win.

The Tigers used a strong second half to beat up Oklahoma last week, winning 36-27 as three-point home ‘dogs. It was the most points the defense allowed all season, but understandable against the fast-break offense of the Sooners. QB Blaine Gabbert was outstanding, completing 30-of-42 throws for 308 yards and a TD, but it was on defense where they won the game in the second half. The Tigers held Oklahoma to just 99 yards rushing and the Sooners were just 4-for-12 on third downs.

The 486 yards Missouri gained last week was the best they’ve done all year, and they’ll probably need another big game to top Nebraska and QB Taylor Martinez. He led the Cornhuskers to a 51-41 win over Oklahoma State last week, cashing in as a six-point road favorite. Missouri’s bend-but-don’t-break defense gives up 240 yards passing per game, but they are fifth in the country allowing just 13.1 points per contest.

In their last two home games, Nebraska edged lowly South Dakota State 17-3 in a lackluster performance by the whole team and then let Texas come in and get a 20-13 win as a 10-point underdog. In Big 12 action, the Cornhuskers have lost three of their last five in Nebraska. Last time Missouri was in Lincoln, the Tigers were delivering a 52-17 drubbing to the ‘Huskers as 10-point favorites.

Missouri is on ATS runs of 14-5 on the road, 4-0 in October and 4-0 against winning teams. Nebraska is 0-3-1 ATS at home in its last four and 0-6-1 ATS in its last 7 as a home favorite.

Grab the points and go with Missouri on the road today.