Lenny Stevens
20* Neb
20* S Car
Thanks for the help ruddog I took out some dupes we had. 8)
no problem
root, kelso,and wunderdog plays i buy every year. thinking of buying hsw plays also but need some help .
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
LATE STEAM COLLEGE FOOTBALL WINNER
Ohio -6 12
SEC CONFERENCE CRUSHER GAME OF THE YEAR
Mississippi -5.5
LATE COLLEGE FOOTBALL STEAM ALERT
Toledo -5
John Ryan
10* - 5 units ATS: Syracuse Orangemen +15 (Play of the Day)
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Syracuse as they face Cincinnati set to start at High Noon. This could be one of those upset specials that no one is looking to occur. The AiS shows an 85% probability that Syracuse will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-10 for 79% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs in conference games of 10.5 to 21 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second system that has produced a mark of 37-11 ATS for 77% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins after the first month of the season. Here is a third system that has gone 42-15 for 74% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points and are excellent defensive teams allowing <=16 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 after 7+ games and after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Syracuse is further supported by a series of game dependent angles. Note that they are 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992; 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game since 1992; 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game since 1992. If you get 6 to 1 or better on the money line it would be a smart wager to add no more than 1.5 units to this 10* Titan play. Take Syracuse.
15* - 5 units ATS: Tennessee Volunteers -6 (Game of the Year)
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Tennessee as they face South Carolina set to start at 7:45 EST and can be seen on ESPN TV. AiS shows an 86% probability that Tennessee will win this game by 7 or more points. I had Tennessee last week as they came so ever close to defeating number 2 tanked Alabama in Tuscaloosa. I am not surprised at all that the AiS would identity this matchup as an even stronger money making opportunity. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 23-4 against the money line for 85% winners making 21.9 units since 1999. Play on a home team versus the money line that is an average passing team gaining 175-230 PYPG facing a good passing defense allowing 130-175 PYPG and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Yes, this is a money line system, but the average play has been a +112.6 DOG under scoring the validity of this system. AiS shows a 96% probability that Tennessee will score 28 or more points and has a 92% probability of out gaining SC by 100 to 150 total yards. Tennessee is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. SC is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. SC also an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992. Take the Volunteers.
C-Star Sports
5000 units Louisville -2.5 over Arkansas State
5000 units Michigan over Illinois
5000 Units Houston minus the points over Southern Mississippi
1000 units Tulane/Louisiana State over 44
50 units Georgia Tech/Vanderbilt under the total
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
7* - DESTROYER TOTAL- AKRON/NO.ILL UNDER 43
5*- OKLAHOMA -27
5*- MIAMI -6
5*- WISKY -7
5*- GA.TECH -11
5*- HOUSTON -6
5*- UTEP -7
5*- LA.TECH +3
Teddy June
20* Temple
Ark St
Georgia
Kentucky
Blazer
4 Temple
4 Utah St
4 Ill
3 Miss
3 SMU
3 L Monroe
PPP
5% UTEP-Tex Tech
4% FAU-NTex-Indy-Ok St- SD St
3% Cal-Ore St-Ole Miss-Neb
O.C. Dooley Guaranteed Selections
TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” BEST BET (Temple +7 at Navy in a 3:30 eastern kickoff broadcast on CBS College TV): The bottom line is that today is the biggest game that Temple has played in 30 YEARS which is the last time this school actually participated in a postseason Bowl game. With a victory this afternoon Temple (5-2) becomes Bowl eligible and very quietly the Owls have been one of college football’s great success stories. Some of you reading this analysis are aware that Temple was actually KICKED OUT of the Big East Conference due to lack of wins and paltry fan support. To make a long story short the recent move to the Mid-American Conference has completely turned the Owls fortunes around including a year ago when they recorded the most single-season victories (5) in 18 YEARS. This is actually the second consecutive campaign where the Mid-American Conference has showcased one of the nation’s biggest turnarounds. Going into 2008 Buffalo was one of the most downtrodden programs in college football history, but they ended up winning the Mid-American Conference championship and ended a 50-YEAR postseason Bowl drought. Towards the end of 2008 Buffalo and their head coach Turner Gill were actually receiving national attention which is something this year’s Temple program has NOT and I have repeatedly taken advantage. Regular clients are aware that today marks the 4th time that Temple has shown up on my Saturday premium card and they have successfully covered the spread all but once. To give you an idea just how radically improved Temple is they RANK NATIONALLY #11 in kickoff returns, #15 in rush defense, #16 in turnover margin, #31 in sacks and #33 in total defense. It comes as no personal shock that Temple’s defense is so proficient since they returned NINE starters from a year ago and have 2 seniors and a junior up front on the line. The Owls also have a senior at linebacker who collected 87 tackles last fall. Temple is definitely equipped to handle Navy’s vaunted “triple option” rushing attack which as usual is one of the best in the entire country. The problem for Navy is that starting quarterback Ricky Dobbs (knee) will MISS his second consecutive game this afternoon. That injury is devastating when you consider he is Navy’s #1 rusher this season even though operating from the quarterback slot. I will admit that Navy upset Wake Forest last week with a reserve signal caller but they attempted ZERO PASSES which is unheard of. Temple just happens to have a quarterback who has already thrown for 9 touchdown passes, but the big news is running back Bernard Pierce who has already set a school FRESHMAN RECORD with 766 yards on the ground. Here is a 77-PERCENT SYSTEM (41-12 past ten years) that plays ON road underdogs of 3’-to-10 points like Temple with an opportunistic defense that forces on average 2’+ turnovers per game. This 77% system is completed if that road underdog is coming off consecutive contests where they committed 1-or-LESS turnovers and that just happens to be the case with the Owls who simply do not make many mistakes. My database research indicates that Temple is a dazzling 15-4 ATS long term when off consecutive games where the team committed LESS than 2 turnovers. To recap Temple has a shot today of ending a 30 YEAR Bowl drought and are facing an opponent off a game where they attempted ZERO passes. But this pick gets even better as Temple is REVENGING an overtime 33-27 loss at Navy a year ago where they blew a massive 20-point fourth quarter lead!
Scott Rickenbach
10* BLOWOUT *GAME OF THE MONTH* 19-7 L2YR
Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt Oct 31 2009 7:30PM
Prediction: Georgia Tech
Originally as high as -14, the line on Georgia Tech fell all the way down to as low as a -10.5 in some books. We certainly understand what people are looking at. Georgia Tech is playing a non-conference game, they’re facing a team who is led by a coach who is familiar with Yellow Jackets coach Paul Johnson and his triple option, and Vanderbilt has put up some impressive defensive numbers at times this season. So, all that said, are we the ones “missing the boat” here? Absolutely not! What we’re doing is taking advantage of line value in a game that should be a total mauling. The Yellow Jackets should dominate on both sides of the ball and win this by much more than the original two touchdown margin that was being called for. That said, there is certainly value with this line having been knocked down my more than a field goal in some shops! Let’s get to it!
First off, even though this is a non-conference game, there is not going to be any backing down from the Yellow Jackets in this one. You see, they reside in SEC country…and they hate that. They know that the SEC is considered far superior to the ACC product and that fires them up. They already won at Mississippi State by 11 points earlier this month and that Bulldogs team is superior to the product that the Commodores have currently been putting on the field. Vanderbilt’s defense is not as impressive as people think (more on that in a moment) and their offense is extremely weak. Another issue facing Vandy here is that their coach Bobby Johnson – even though familiar with the option attack and coach Paul Johnson’s “style” from their days matching wits in the Southern Conference – does not necessarily have the ability to stop it. Keep in mind, Bobby’s team kept Paul’s team from batting for the national championship in the 1-AA when they were still in the Southern Conference in 2001. After that, they both moved up a level and Paul landed with Navy. His Midshipmen faced Bobby’s Commodores twice and Paul’s team won both games. Now, Paul is coaching a much more talented team that has the athletes to run the triple option attack phenomenally well. The Yellow Jackets are always threat to break off of a big run and the Commodores will get burned by big plays here.
Vanderbilt struggles in terms of time of possession. Their offense simply struggles to maintain a long drive down the field. Unlike the Commodores, the Jackets thrive on long, clock-eating drives that wear down a defense as the game goes on. Georgia Tech will simply run the ball down the throats of the Commodores all day long. As we’ve noted many times in the past, a key for us in terms of being willing to lay points is motivation. In this particular case, Georgia Tech hates the SEC bias they feel on a weekly basis as Georgia and SEC schools in neighboring states get all the hype and respect. Additionally, as if more motivation was even needed, coach Paul Johnson really has the horses now (moreso than he did with Navy) to not only beat an old rival (Bobby Johnson) once again but to beat him by an even more impressive margin. The Yellow Jackets offense is so hard to prepare for in just a weeks time and Vandy is concerned about missed assignments on defense and the big plays that can result from just not having the right personnel and tactics to defend a dangerous ground game like the Yellow Jackets possess. Vanderbilt’s defense gets a lot of positive press but their only two wins this season came against Western Carolina and Rice. Western Carolina plays in the Southern Conference and the Owls are winless on the season overall and in Conference USA action. Overall, those two teams are a combined 1-14.
Other than the two victories the Commodores have against two struggling programs, Vandy has lost all six of their other games. Four of those losses each game by 12 points and the damage could have been much worse. Plus, in their only two close losses, the Gamecocks outgained the Commodores by 158 yards and Vandy lost to an Army program that is just 3-5 on the season. Army’s other two wins came against Ball State and Eastern Michigan – teams that are a combined 1-14 on the season. Get the picture? Vandy has done nothing against a good program this season. They can’t! Their offense struggles to move the ball and the defense is not a good as their points allowed per game would lead you to believe. The Commodores were outgained by South Carolina by 158 yards, by Mississippi State by a 341-157 margin, by Georgia by 103 yards, by Mississippi by 157 yards, and by LSU by 116 yards! All these ugly results and yet Vandy is still 3-4 ATS on the season. That’s part of the reason we’re getting such line value here and it’s a big reason as to why we’re not afraid to lay the points. The Yellow Jackets won’t shy away from dominating in this one. They don’t like the SEC! Play Georgia Tech minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection
Preferred Picks
5* OKLA STATE
3* South Carolina.
Joe D
25* NAVY
20* Fla State
15* Wisconsin, Missouri, and Auburn.
LT Profits
5* AKRON UNDER
4* UL-Lafayette
3* South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Southern Miss.
Gameday
3* Florida, Houston
2* Wisconsin, Auburn, Northwestern, North Texas
Pointwise
4* Nebraska, Oregon State.
ATS TOTALS ALSO HAS
5 on the over 49 in the western mich gm and 4 on the over 63.5 in the uab game
Kelso 50 unit Temple
Underdog Hotline
S Miss